The snapshot from Oct 27, 8:13 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/snapshot/2026-10-28T1816/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Fed decisionEvery figure as of Oct 28, 6:16 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
The Fed hikes on Dec. 9
80%Last trade
The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (79.5%) and Polymarket (79.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Dec. 9 at 80%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 | direct contract | 79.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 498s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636 | direct contract | 79.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-28 (150 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 6:16 PM observation. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 79.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | 73.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-25 | 74.5% |
| 2026-10-24 | 73.5% |
| 2026-10-23 | 71.5% |
The Fed holds on Dec. 9
18%Last trade
The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Dec. 9, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (17.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Dec. 9 at 18%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0 | direct contract | 17.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1057s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635 | direct contract | 17.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 81s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-28 (153 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 17.5% |
| 2026-10-27 | 24.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | 23.5% |
| 2026-10-25 | 23.5% |
| 2026-10-24 | 23.5% |
| 2026-10-23 | 23.5% |
The Fed hikes on Jan. 27
31%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Jan. 26–27 meeting, as priced on Kalshi. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on December.
Kalshi only.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a January Fed hike at 31%” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H25 | direct contract | 31.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 925s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-28 (150 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 31.0% |
| 2026-10-27 | 30.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | 31.5% |
| 2026-10-25 | 31.5% |
| 2026-10-24 | 31.5% |
| 2026-10-23 | 30.5% |
At least one more hike in 2026
81%Last trade
The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (82.5%) and Polymarket (79.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about an 81% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31 | direct contract | 82.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 2226s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | direct contract | 79.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 61s old | Contract ↗ |
December hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market
83%Last tradeSingle venue
The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the December meeting.
Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | direct contract | 82.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 582s old | Contract ↗ |