Fed decisionEvery figure as of Oct 19, 6:32 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 19, 6:32 PM ET

Live page updatedOct 19, 6:32 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/snapshot/2026-10-19T1832

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
Fed meeting odds (Kalshi) (CSV)

The Fed hikes on Oct. 28

14%

Last trade

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (14.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 14%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25	direct contract			13.50¢	last trade	fresh · 118s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032	direct contract			14.50¢	last trade	fresh · 196s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-19 (146 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 6:32 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-10-19	13.5%
2026-10-18	12.5%
2026-10-17	13.5%
2026-10-16	13.5%
2026-10-15	28.5%
2026-10-14	29.0%

The Fed holds on Oct. 28

85%

Last trade

The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (85.5%) and Polymarket (84.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 85%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0	direct contract			85.50¢	last trade	fresh · 307s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031	direct contract			84.50¢	last trade	fresh · 196s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-19 (146 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-10-19	85.5%
2026-10-18	86.5%
2026-10-17	86.5%
2026-10-16	86.5%
2026-10-15	70.5%
2026-10-14	68.5%

The Fed hikes on Dec. 9

76%

Last trade

The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (74.5%) and Polymarket (76.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 76%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25	direct contract			74.50¢	last trade	fresh · 184s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636	direct contract			76.50¢	last trade	fresh · 107s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-19 (141 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-10-19	74.5%
2026-10-18	72.5%
2026-10-17	74.5%
2026-10-16	75.5%
2026-10-15	76.0%
2026-10-14	78.0%

At least one more hike in 2026

81%

Last trade

The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (81.5%) and Polymarket (80.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about an 81% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31	direct contract			81.50¢	last trade	fresh · 325s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026	direct contract			80.50¢	last trade	fresh · 1066s old	Contract ↗

October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market

16%

Last tradeSingle venue

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFED-26OCT-T4.00	direct contract			15.50¢	last trade	fresh · 54s old	Contract ↗