The snapshot from Oct 26, 12:39 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T1412/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 2:12 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
17%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,229.06) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 16.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
39%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,323.45) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 72% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 39% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 38.0¢ | 39.0¢ | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 71.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
70%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2966) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 70% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 70.00¢ | last trade | stale · 70s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 76.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
22%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0775715) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 57% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 22% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 21.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 21.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
7%The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.3) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 18% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 7% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 6.3¢ | 6.7¢ | 6.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 18.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
65%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5098) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 65% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 64.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (79.7276) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 30% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 1.0¢ | 1.1¢ | 1.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 46s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 30.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
2%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,241.5718) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 2% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 2.10¢ | last trade | stale · 73s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
14%The chance BNB settles above its target price (744.37) at the end of the window closing 2:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 18% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 14% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT261415-15 | direct contract | 13.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 18.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
15%Crypto contracts made up 14.7% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $192 million of the $1304 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).