The snapshot from Oct 25, 9:15 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T2226/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 10:26 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (79,717.58) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 6% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 1.2¢ | 1.3¢ | 1.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 6.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
5%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,309.97) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 10% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 4.9¢ | 5.2¢ | 5.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 9.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
16%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2901) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 28% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 15.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 15.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 28.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
29%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.076522) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 29.00¢ | last trade | stale · 93s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 25.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
19%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (100.966) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 19.00¢ | last trade | stale · 92s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 19.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
19%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5014) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 18.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 19.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
2%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.1204) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 5% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 2% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 2.0¢ | 2.1¢ | 2.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 45s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 5.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
4%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,204.2736) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 3.6¢ | 4.1¢ | 3.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
4%The chance BNB settles above its target price (737.88) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 12% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT252230-30 | direct contract | 3.4¢ | 4.1¢ | 3.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 45s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 11.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 11.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $175 million of the $1509 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).