The snapshot from Oct 24, 1:34 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-24T1436/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 24, 2:36 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
37%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,270.34) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 37% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 37.00¢ | last trade | stale · 63s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 43.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
40%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,329.73) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 64% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 40% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 39.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 39.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
69%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2819) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 71% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 68.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 69.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 71.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
56%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0766852) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 65% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 56% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 55.0¢ | 57.0¢ | 56.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 65.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
63%The chance Solana settles above its target price (100.8748) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 72% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 63% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 63.0¢ | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 22s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 72.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
41%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4704) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 41% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 41.00¢ | last trade | stale · 162s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
25%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (75.7144) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 54% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 25% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 24.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 25.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 54.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
52%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,185.7264) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 52% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 52.00¢ | last trade | stale · 86s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
38%The chance BNB settles above its target price (726.78) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 57% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT241445-45 | direct contract | 36.0¢ | 39.0¢ | 37.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 22s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
17%Crypto contracts made up 17.3% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 24, 2026: about $199 million of the $1150 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).