The snapshot from Oct 24, 10:13 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-24T1156/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 24, 11:56 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (79,336.53) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 94% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 98.8¢ | 98.9¢ | 98.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 93.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,291.17) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 94% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 97.0¢ | 97.1¢ | 97.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 93.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
99%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2588) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 98.90¢ | last trade | stale · 75s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
94%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0752512) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 94% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 94.20¢ | last trade | stale · 125s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 94.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance Solana settles above its target price (98.9855) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 98% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 99.2¢ | 99.3¢ | 99.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 39s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.3438) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 96.90¢ | last trade | stale · 101s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
96%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (74.7725) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 83% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 96.1¢ | 96.4¢ | 96.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 39s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 83.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,132.543) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 99.1¢ | 99.4¢ | 99.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 39s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
98%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (718.4) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT241200-00 | direct contract | 98.10¢ | last trade | stale · 84s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 93.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
19%Crypto contracts made up 18.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 24, 2026: about $199 million of the $1067 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).