The snapshot from Oct 23, 11:01 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T2354/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 11:54 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
10%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,847.16) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 4% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 10% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 9.8¢ | 10.0¢ | 9.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 4.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
1%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,381.41) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 1.30¢ | last trade | stale · 95s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 26.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
13%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2898) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 10% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 12.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 10.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
3%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0787729) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 2.70¢ | last trade | stale · 64s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 28.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
5%The chance Solana settles above its target price (102.6412) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 5% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 4.7¢ | 4.8¢ | 4.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 5.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
2%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6478) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 2% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 1.8¢ | 2.0¢ | 1.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
3%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.1396) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 2.60¢ | last trade | stale · 63s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 30.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
5%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,170.3776) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 5.00¢ | last trade | stale · 183s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
26%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (739.1) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 26% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT240000-00 | direct contract | 26.00¢ | last trade | stale · 63s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 35.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 21.1% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $196 million of the $933 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).