Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 1:40 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
96%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (81,547.7) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 95.70¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 92.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
98%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,395.19) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 98.30¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 91.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.3213) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 92% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 98.8¢ | 98.9¢ | 98.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 92.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
99%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0795952) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 98.70¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 90.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance Solana settles above its target price (104.0882) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 95% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 98.9¢ | 99.0¢ | 98.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 95.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
96%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.9472) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 96.0¢ | 96.5¢ | 96.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.8269) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 80% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 96.7¢ | 97.5¢ | 97.10¢ | midpoint | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 80.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
98%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,219.6933) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 97.6¢ | 97.8¢ | 97.70¢ | midpoint | fresh · 19s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
88%The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.71) at the end of the window closing 1:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 88% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT230145-45 | direct contract | 87.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 88.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 20.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $180 million of the $886 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).