The snapshot from Oct 22, 11:46 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T0044/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 12:44 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
89%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (81,570.94) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 89% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 88.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 88.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
32%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,397.76) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 32% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 32.00¢ | last trade | stale · 70s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 60.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.316) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 94% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 94.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0792944) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 100% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 99.5¢ | 99.7¢ | 99.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 99.55¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance Solana settles above its target price (103.7522) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 90% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 99.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 26s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 90.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
55%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.9121) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 55% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 54.0¢ | 56.0¢ | 55.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.7752) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 97% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 96.5¢ | 97.0¢ | 96.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 19s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
<1%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,217.0166) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a <1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 0.10¢ | last trade | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance BNB settles above its target price (738.72) at the end of the window closing 12:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 88% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT230045-45 | direct contract | 99.4¢ | 99.6¢ | 99.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 31s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 87.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 20.5% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 22, 2026: about $182 million of the $886 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).