The snapshot from Oct 9, 3:20 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-24T0802/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 24, 8:02 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
34%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,496.51) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 33.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 33.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 33s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
27%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,362.97) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 27% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 26.0¢ | 27.0¢ | 26.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 51.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
31%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2805) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 31% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 31.00¢ | last trade | stale · 62s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
22%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0775247) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 22% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 21.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 21.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
24%The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.4038) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 24% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 23.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 23.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
16%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4955) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 15.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
21%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (75.595) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 21% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 20.0¢ | 21.0¢ | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
24%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,154.176) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 24% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 24.00¢ | last trade | stale · 61s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
32%The chance BNB settles above its target price (731.04) at the end of the window closing 8:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 32% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT240815-15 | direct contract | 31.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 31.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 19.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 24, 2026: about $204 million of the $1030 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).