The snapshot from Oct 5, 11:36 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-22T2251/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 22, 10:51 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
72%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (81,752.11) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 62% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 71.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 71.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 28s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
69%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,408.89) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 54% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 68.0¢ | 69.0¢ | 68.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 28s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 54.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
71%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.3192) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 58% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 71% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 70.0¢ | 71.0¢ | 70.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 50s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 58.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
73%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0794229) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 68% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 73% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 72.0¢ | 73.0¢ | 72.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 67.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
56%The chance Solana settles above its target price (104.4503) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 56% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 55.0¢ | 56.0¢ | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 50s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
64%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.9772) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 64% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 63.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
46%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.9586) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 45.0¢ | 46.0¢ | 45.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
64%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,224.7389) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 64% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 63.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 64.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
68%The chance BNB settles above its target price (737.51) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 64% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 68% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT222300-00 | direct contract | 67.0¢ | 68.0¢ | 67.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 50s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 20.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 22, 2026: about $183 million of the $897 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).