The snapshot from Oct 3, 10:57 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2336/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 11:36 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
25%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,461.7) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 10% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 25% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 24.0¢ | 25.0¢ | 24.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 10.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
12%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,698.36) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 8% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 12% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 11.0¢ | 12.0¢ | 11.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 8.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
32%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4971) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 32% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 31.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 31.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 51.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
18%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.094599) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 28% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 17.0¢ | 19.0¢ | 18.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 27.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
28%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.0373) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 17% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 28% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 27.0¢ | 28.0¢ | 27.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 17.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
39%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.252) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 39% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 38.0¢ | 39.0¢ | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
81%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.2254) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 53% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 81% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 80.0¢ | 81.0¢ | 80.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 53.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
67%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,338.2213) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 67% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 64.0¢ | 69.0¢ | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
18%The chance BNB settles above its target price (781.9) at the end of the window closing 11:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 12% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT052345-45 | direct contract | 17.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 17.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 12.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 21.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $181 million of the $862 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 22% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).