Rays vs. Guardians Game 4: Kalshi Promo Code RATE $25 Bonus

Game 4 brings a pivotal swing point in the American League Championship Series, with Cleveland holding a 2-1 advantage. Tampa Bay must respond on the road to avoid falling one loss away from elimination, while the Guardians can move within a win of the World Series.

The matchup happens Friday at Progressive Field in Cleveland, with coverage beginning at 8 p.m. ET on TBS, truTV and HBO Max.

Trading is open for the primetime MLB Playoffs showdown at leading platforms. New users can claim the Kalshi promo code RATE and receive a $25 bonus after $10 in trades.

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It’s an easy process to get into tonight’s Game 4 for Rays vs. Guardians MLB Playoffs showdown on the order book. Kalshi has a promotional offer for new users where they give a $25 trading bonus to help grow your initial bankroll when you sign up with the Kalshi referral code RATE. Here is how you can secure the offer before the first pitch:

Register for an account: Navigate to Kalshi and create a new account, making sure to enter the Kalshi promo code RATE during the sign-up process.
Verify your identity: Because Kalshi is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), all users must complete a standard KYC (Know Your Customer) identity verification.
Fund your wallet: Make your initial deposit. You will need to trade at least $10 to trigger the promotional offer.
Trade the Rays vs. Guardians market: Buy $10 worth of cumulative event contracts. You can take a position on the Rays vs. Guardians game or explore other active markets.
Receive your bonus: As soon as your first $10 in contracts settle, Kalshi will automatically credit a $25 trading bonus to your account.

Please note that you must be physically located in an eligible state to create an account and claim the bonus. For a complete breakdown of the exchange’s mechanics, fee structures, and a full map of supported states, head over to our detailed Kalshi prediction market review.

Rays vs. Guardians prices on Kalshi

Outcome	Kalshi probabilities	Example of winning trade
Rays win	50%	$100 > $200
Guardians win	50%	$100 > $200
Rays win by over 1.5 runs	36%	$100 > $278
Over 6.5 runs scored	50%	$100 > $200
Under 6.5 runs scored	50%	$100 > $200
Junior Caminero 1+ home runs	16%	$100 > $625
Nick Martinez 3+ strikeouts	46%	$100 > $217
Jose Ramirez 2+ Hits+Runs+RBIs	47%	$100 > $213

Rays vs. Guardians prediction market preview

The Rays and Guardians head into Game 4 with another chance to shape the series, giving MLB fans plenty to consider before the first pitch. For prediction market traders, the matchup offers a chance to put their expectations for both teams to the test.

Cleveland’s pitching has controlled much of the series, limiting the Rays to three runs or fewer in each of the first three games. Tampa Bay is expected to start Nick Martinez, while the Guardians may rely on a mix-and-match approach after using 15 pitchers across the opening three contests.

The prediction market reflects how little separates these teams entering Game 4. Kalshi traders give the Rays and Guardians identical 50% win probabilities, leaving no clear favorite despite Cleveland’s home-field advantage and series lead.

Rays vs. Guardians props on Kalshi

Tonight’s Game 4 puts Tampa Bay’s biggest names under the prediction-market spotlight as the Rays try to level the ALCS at 2-2 in Cleveland. Nick Martinez is expected to start for Tampa Bay, while the Guardians could counter with multiple relievers.

Junior Caminero’s market gives him a 16% chance of hitting at least one home run. The low probability reflects both the difficulty of the feat and his quiet series, although his 42 regular-season homers show how quickly he can change a game.

Martinez is priced at 46% to record three or more strikeouts, making that contract nearly a coin flip. Jose Ramírez’s probability of collecting at least two combined hits, runs and RBIs sits slightly higher at 47%. With Cleveland holding a 2-1 series lead, his all-around production could help determine whether the Guardians take control or Tampa Bay pulls even.

Trading on Rays vs. Guardians Game 4 at Kalshi

Kalshi gives fans a different way to follow Rays vs. Guardians Game 4, event contracts instead of traditional sportsbook wagers. Market prices are dictated by the supply and demand in the exchange order book, where traders take positions against other market participants.

Contract prices usually range from $0.01 to $0.99 and represent a market’s implied view of an outcome. A contract that settles as correct pays $1.00, while an incorrect contract expires at $0. For example, a Rays-to-win contract purchased for $0.50 would return $1.00 if Tampa Bay wins, representing a $0.50 gain per contract before applicable fees.

Prices can shift quickly throughout the game as runs score, pitchers tire or late-inning situations develop. That means traders may choose to close a position before the final out rather than hold it until settlement.

Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange, but trading still involves meaningful risk. An unexpected homer, injury or bullpen collapse can rapidly change a contract’s value, and a losing position can settle at zero. Only use funds you can comfortably afford to lose.