The snapshot from Oct 8, 11:27 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/2026-midterms/snapshot/2026-10-08T1214/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
2026 MidtermsEvery figure as of Oct 8, 12:14 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Democrats win the Senate
63%Constructed
The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.
Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 62.3% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (61.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.80¢).
Polymarket 63.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 62.9%, shown as 63%.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 63% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD | constructed leg | 61.0¢ | 62.0¢ | 61.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 171s old | Contract ↗ |
| Kalshi | KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RD | constructed leg | 0.7¢ | 0.9¢ | 0.80¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1085s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | 0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3 | direct contract | 63.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 63.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 175s old | Contract ↗ |
History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-08 (135 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 12:14 PM observation. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 62.9% |
| 2026-10-07 | 63.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 64.9% |
| 2026-10-05 | 65.4% |
| 2026-10-04 | 66.0% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64.6% |
Democrats win the House
90%The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.
Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 90.05% and Polymarket 90.5%. Average: 90.3%, shown as 90%.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CONTROLH-2026-D | direct contract | 90.0¢ | 90.1¢ | 90.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 128s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | 0xd5d9fc47718bd553592d126b1fa5e87183d27f3936975b0c04cc0f2dec1f1bb4 | direct contract | 90.0¢ | 91.0¢ | 90.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 127s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-08 (135 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 90.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | 89.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 91.1% |
| 2026-10-05 | 91.6% |
| 2026-10-04 | 91.7% |
| 2026-10-03 | 91.9% |
Senate control on Kalshi (constructed)
62%ConstructedSingle venue
The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.
Kalshi 62.3% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (61.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.80¢).
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi's prices give Democrats a 62% chance of winning control of the Senate” (Kalshi (constructed from two contracts) via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD | constructed leg | 61.0¢ | 62.0¢ | 61.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 171s old | Contract ↗ |
| Kalshi | KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RD | constructed leg | 0.7¢ | 0.9¢ | 0.80¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1085s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi (constructed) daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-08 (135 rows). Kalshi daily close for the two-contract bundle. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 62.3% |
| 2026-10-07 | 62.4% |
| 2026-10-06 | 65.3% |
| 2026-10-05 | 65.4% |
| 2026-10-04 | 64.6% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64.6% |
Senate control on Polymarket
64%Single venue
The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.
Polymarket 63.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Democrats a 64% chance of winning control of the Senate” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3 | direct contract | 63.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 63.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 175s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-08 (135 rows). Polymarket daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 63.5% |
| 2026-10-07 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-05 | 65.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 67.5% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64.5% |
Republicans win both chambers
9%The chance Republicans keep both the House and the Senate.
Average of Kalshi's R House + R Senate contract (9.85¢) and Polymarket's matching contract (8.5¢). These two contracts ask the same question, so this is a like-for-like comparison.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Markets give Republicans a 9% chance of keeping both chambers” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RR | direct contract | 9.7¢ | 10.0¢ | 9.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 283s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | 0xc5eae79d1ffe716572353962eb926b1e3964c500a4880a7a94f58408218ee76b | direct contract | 8.0¢ | 9.0¢ | 8.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 119s old | Contract ↗ |
Senate control implied by the 35 state races
69%What the 35 Kalshi state-race prices imply for Senate control, if every race were independent of the others. This is DeFi Rate's calculation, not a market price.
We treat each state's Democratic price as a probability, combine all 35 races assuming they are independent, and add the 34 Democratic seats not up this year. Real races move together (a good night in Ohio usually means a good night in Texas), so this overstates how predictable the total is.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask (Kalshi state contracts). Cited as: “The 35 state races imply a 69% Democratic chance under an independence assumption” (DeFi Rate calculation from Kalshi state prices via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATE{STATE}-26-D × 35 | inputs | midpoint | fresh | See each race's own source record below. |
Democrats win Delaware
>99%Single venueStale
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Delaware.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a >99% chance in the Delaware Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEDE-26-D | direct contract | 99.10¢ | midpoint | stale · 12169s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Rhode Island
99%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Rhode Island.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 99% chance in the Rhode Island Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATERI-26-D | direct contract | 98.7¢ | 99.0¢ | 98.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2607s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Colorado
99%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Colorado.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 99% chance in the Colorado Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATECO-26-D | direct contract | 98.0¢ | 99.6¢ | 98.80¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2035s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Oregon
98%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Oregon.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 98% chance in the Oregon Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEOR-26-D | direct contract | 97.7¢ | 98.9¢ | 98.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3525s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Massachusetts
98%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Massachusetts.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 98% chance in the Massachusetts Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEMA-26-D | direct contract | 98.0¢ | 98.5¢ | 98.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1388s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Virginia
98%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Virginia.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 98% chance in the Virginia Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEVA-26-D | direct contract | 97.7¢ | 98.7¢ | 98.20¢ | midpoint | fresh · 160s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Illinois
98%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Illinois.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 98% chance in the Illinois Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEIL-26-D | direct contract | 97.3¢ | 98.2¢ | 97.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1373s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win New Jersey
97%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in New Jersey.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 97% chance in the New Jersey Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATENJ-26-D | direct contract | 96.1¢ | 98.8¢ | 97.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 607s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win North Carolina
97%Single venueStale
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in North Carolina (Cooper (D)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 97% chance in the North Carolina Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATENC-26-D | direct contract | 96.85¢ | midpoint | stale · 10012s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win New Mexico
97%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in New Mexico.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 97% chance in the New Mexico Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATENM-26-D | direct contract | 95.3¢ | 98.0¢ | 96.65¢ | midpoint | fresh · 791s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Georgia
96%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Georgia (Ossoff (D)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 96% chance in the Georgia Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEGA-26-D | direct contract | 95.6¢ | 96.2¢ | 95.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2615s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win New Hampshire
90%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in New Hampshire (Pappas (D)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 90% chance in the New Hampshire Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATENH-26-D | direct contract | 89.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 89.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3451s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Minnesota
87%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Minnesota.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 87% chance in the Minnesota Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEMN-26-D | direct contract | 86.0¢ | 87.0¢ | 86.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1373s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Alaska
76%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alaska (Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 76% chance in the Alaska Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEAK-26-D | direct contract | 75.0¢ | 76.0¢ | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1373s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Michigan
70%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Michigan (El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 70% chance in the Michigan Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEMI-26-D | direct contract | 69.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 94s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Texas
66%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Texas (Talarico (D) vs. Paxton (R)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 66% chance in the Texas Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATETX-26-D | direct contract | 65.0¢ | 67.0¢ | 66.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 725s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Ohio (special election)
63%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Ohio (special) (Brown (D) vs. Husted (R)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 63% chance in the Ohio (special) Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEOHS-26-D | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 63.0¢ | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 160s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Maine
56%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Maine (Jackson (D) vs. Collins (R)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 56% chance in the Maine Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEME-26-D | direct contract | 55.0¢ | 56.0¢ | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 437s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Iowa
44%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Iowa (Turek (D) vs. Hinson (R)).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 44% chance in the Iowa Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEIA-26-D | direct contract | 43.0¢ | 44.0¢ | 43.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 111s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Kansas
37%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Kansas.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 37% chance in the Kansas Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEKS-26-D | direct contract | 36.0¢ | 37.0¢ | 36.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1330s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win South Carolina
14%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in South Carolina.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 14% chance in the South Carolina Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATESC-26-D | direct contract | 13.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 13.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 115s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Florida (special election)
9%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Florida (special).
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 9% chance in the Florida (special) Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEFLS-26-D | direct contract | 9.2¢ | 9.4¢ | 9.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 243s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Mississippi
9%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Mississippi.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 9% chance in the Mississippi Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEMS-26-D | direct contract | 9.0¢ | 9.6¢ | 9.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 157s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Arkansas
7%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Arkansas.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 7% chance in the Arkansas Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEAR-26-D | direct contract | 6.5¢ | 6.9¢ | 6.70¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3107s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Tennessee
7%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Tennessee.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 7% chance in the Tennessee Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATETN-26-D | direct contract | 6.2¢ | 7.2¢ | 6.70¢ | midpoint | fresh · 94s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Louisiana
5%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Louisiana.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 5% chance in the Louisiana Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSENATELA-26NOV-D | direct contract | 4.1¢ | 5.8¢ | 4.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 222s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Kentucky
4%Single venueStale
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Kentucky.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 4% chance in the Kentucky Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATELA-26-D | direct contract | 3.55¢ | midpoint | stale · 6489s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Oklahoma
3%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Oklahoma.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 3% chance in the Oklahoma Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEOK-26-D | direct contract | 2.7¢ | 3.1¢ | 2.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1013s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Wyoming
3%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Wyoming.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 3% chance in the Wyoming Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEWY-26-D | direct contract | 2.4¢ | 2.6¢ | 2.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2035s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Alabama
2%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alabama.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 2% chance in the Alabama Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEAL-26-D | direct contract | 1.1¢ | 3.6¢ | 2.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2617s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win West Virginia
2%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in West Virginia.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 2% chance in the West Virginia Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEWV-26-D | direct contract | 1.3¢ | 2.6¢ | 1.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 168s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Montana
<1%Single venue
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Montana.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a <1% chance in the Montana Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEMT-26-D | direct contract | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | 0.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 160s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Nebraska
<1%Single venue
The chance a Democrat wins the 2026 Senate race in Nebraska. The race is Osborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R), so this contract’s “No” side pays if the independent or the Republican wins. It isn’t a bet on the Republican, and we don’t label it “Buy GOP.”
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives a Democrat a <1% chance in the Nebraska Senate race, where no Democrat is the main challenger (Osborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R))” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATENE-26-D | direct contract | 0.80¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1398s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win Idaho
<1%Single venueStale
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Idaho.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a <1% chance in the Idaho Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATEID-26-D | direct contract | 0.25¢ | midpoint | stale · 12169s old | Contract ↗ |
Democrats win South Dakota
<1%Single venueStale
The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in South Dakota.
Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a <1% chance in the South Dakota Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | SENATESD-26-D | direct contract | 0.15¢ | midpoint | stale · 12169s old | Contract ↗ |