Who Will Win 2028 US Presidential Race: Odds & Predictions

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Updated 20 minutes ago · 8:00 AM PDT

Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 20.1% probability (+398). A Gavin Newsom win stands at 17.1% (+484), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from 4 prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $715.0K, with $35.2K at Kalshi and $679.6K at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

4.55%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Current Favorite

20.1%

J.D. Vance 10.3%

24H Volume (Share)

$715.0K

Momentum Leader

+6.7%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $35.9K Spread 5.0%

Agg 20.1%

↓ -10.3%

G 23.5%

O 22.0%

P 20.3%

K 18.5%

Gemini 23.5%

Vol $135 20–27¢

OG 22.0%

22¢

Polymarket 20.3%

Vol $32.2K 20.1–20.4¢

Kalshi 18.5%

Vol $3.5K 18–19¢

Gavin Newsom

Vol $16.6K Spread 1.9%

Agg 17.1%

↓ -1.5%

O 19.0%

K 17.5%

P 17.1%

OG 19.0%

19¢

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $3.2K 17–18¢

Polymarket 17.1%

Vol $13.4K 17–17.1¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $11.0K Spread 5.3%

Agg 11.2%

↑ +6.7%

K 15.5%

O 12.0%

G 10.5%

P 10.3%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $1.9K 15–16¢

OG 12.0%

12¢

Gemini 10.5%

Vol $85 4–17¢

Polymarket 10.3%

Vol $9.1K 10.2–10.3¢

Cory Booker

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

O 8.0%

OG 8.0%

8¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

O 8.0%

OG 8.0%

8¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

O 8.0%

OG 8.0%

8¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $10.8K Spread 1.7%

Agg 5.5%

↓ -1.9%

O 7.0%

P 5.7%

K 5.4%

OG 7.0%

7¢

Polymarket 5.7%

Vol $7.2K 5.6–5.7¢

Kalshi 5.4%

Vol $3.6K 5.3–5.4¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $9.6K Spread 1.9%

Agg 5.2%

↑ +2.1%

O 7.0%

K 5.4%

P 5.1%

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kalshi 5.4%

Vol $1.2K 5.2–5.5¢

Polymarket 5.1%

Vol $8.3K 5.1–5.2¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $8.4K Spread —

Agg 3.4%

↑ +1.8%

P 3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $8.4K 3.3–3.4¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $39.0K Spread 2.2%

Agg 2.9%

↑ +0.4%

O 5.0%

K 3.1%

P 2.9%

OG 5.0%

5¢

Kalshi 3.1%

Vol $1.5K 3–3.1¢

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $37.5K 2.8–2.9¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $21.1K Spread 1.4%

Agg 2.8%

↓ -0.4%

G 4.0%

P 2.9%

K 2.7%

Gemini 4.0%

Vol $0 0–8¢

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $16.8K 2.8–2.9¢

Kalshi 2.7%

Vol $4.3K 2.5–2.8¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $7.7K Spread 3.0%

Agg 2.7%

↑ +0.2%

O 5.0%

K 2.9%

P 2.1%

OG 5.0%

5¢

Kalshi 2.9%

Vol $5.9K 2.8–3¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $1.8K 2–2.1¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $3.7K Spread 1.8%

Agg 1.9%

— +0.0%

K 3.7%

O 3.0%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 3.7%

Vol $87 3.6–3.7¢

OG 3.0%

3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $3.6K 1.8–1.9¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $6.6K Spread 2.5%

Agg 1.8%

↑ +0.4%

O 4.0%

K 2.1%

P 1.6%

OG 4.0%

4¢

Kalshi 2.1%

Vol $3.9K 2–2.1¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $2.7K 1.5–1.6¢

DTR

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Vol $25.6K Spread —

Agg 1.8%

↓ -0.4%

P 1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $25.6K 1.7–1.8¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $17.3K Spread 2.6%

Agg 1.4%

— +0.0%

O 4.0%

K 2.1%

P 1.4%

OG 4.0%

4¢

Kalshi 2.1%

Vol $315 2–2.2¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $16.9K 1.3–1.5¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $49.9K Spread 0.3%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -0.2%

K 1.4%

P 1.1%

Kalshi 1.4%

Vol $475 1.2–1.5¢

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $49.4K 1–1.1¢

Elon Musk

Vol $14.0K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.1%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $14.0K 0.9–1¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $13.1K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $13.1K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.3–0.4¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $33.4K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.3%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $33.4K 0.9–1¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $8.9K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $8.9K 0.9–1¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $16.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.0%

K 0.6%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $16.8K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.6%

Vol $0 0.5–0.7¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $10.9K Spread 1.1%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -1.4%

O 2.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.9%

OG 2.0%

2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $10.9K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.9%

Vol $80 0.8–1¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $22.5K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $22.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.3–0.5¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $35.2K Spread 1.7%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

O 2.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.4%

OG 2.0%

2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $35.1K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $51 0.2–0.5¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $25.5K Spread 1.3%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

O 2.0%

K 0.9%

P 0.8%

OG 2.0%

2¢

Kalshi 0.9%

Vol $4.0K 0.8–0.9¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $21.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Wes Moore

Vol $31.7K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.8%

K 1.3%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.3%

Vol $117 1.2–1.4¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $31.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $61.1K Spread 1.5%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

O 2.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

OG 2.0%

2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $61.1K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0.5–0.6¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $39.8K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $39.8K 0.7–0.8¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $31.7K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $31.7K 0.6–0.7¢

LeBron James

Vol $25.9K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $25.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $47.9K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.3%

O 1.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.3%

OG 1.0%

1¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $47.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $0 0.2–0.3¢

Tim Walz

Vol $33.4K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.1%

O 1.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.1%

OG 1.0%

1¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $32.4K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $999 0–0.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
JDV J.D. Vance	20.1% ↓ -10.3%	5.0%	$35.9K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket 20.3% 20.1–20.4¢ Vol $32.2K	Gemini 23.5% 20–27¢ Vol $135	OG 22.0% 22¢
GN Gavin Newsom	17.1% ↓ -1.5%	1.9%	$16.6K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $3.2K	Polymarket 17.1% 17–17.1¢ Vol $13.4K	Gemini — —	OG 19.0% 19¢
MR Marco Rubio	11.2% ↑ +6.7%	5.3%	$11.0K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket 10.3% 10.2–10.3¢ Vol $9.1K	Gemini 10.5% 4–17¢ Vol $85	OG 12.0% 12¢
CB Cory Booker	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
TC Ted Cruz	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	5.5% ↓ -1.9%	1.7%	$10.8K	Kalshi 5.4% 5.3–5.4¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket 5.7% 5.6–5.7¢ Vol $7.2K	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
KH Kamala Harris	5.2% ↑ +2.1%	1.9%	$9.6K	Kalshi 5.4% 5.2–5.5¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 5.1% 5.1–5.2¢ Vol $8.3K	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
TC Tucker Carlson	3.4% ↑ +1.8%	—	$8.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.4% 3.3–3.4¢ Vol $8.4K	Gemini — —	OG — —
JS Josh Shapiro	2.9% ↑ +0.4%	2.2%	$39.0K	Kalshi 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 2.9% 2.8–2.9¢ Vol $37.5K	Gemini — —	OG 5.0% 5¢
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.8% ↓ -0.4%	1.4%	$21.1K	Kalshi 2.7% 2.5–2.8¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket 2.9% 2.8–2.9¢ Vol $16.8K	Gemini 4.0% 0–8¢ Vol $0	OG — —
PB Pete Buttigieg	2.7% ↑ +0.2%	3.0%	$7.7K	Kalshi 2.9% 2.8–3¢ Vol $5.9K	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $1.8K	Gemini — —	OG 5.0% 5¢
AB Andy Beshear	1.9% — +0.0%	1.8%	$3.7K	Kalshi 3.7% 3.6–3.7¢ Vol $87	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $3.6K	Gemini — —	OG 3.0% 3¢
RD Ron DeSantis	1.8% ↑ +0.4%	2.5%	$6.6K	Kalshi 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $3.9K	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $2.7K	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.8% ↓ -0.4%	—	$25.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.8¢ Vol $25.6K	Gemini — —	OG — —
JBP J.B. Pritzker	1.4% — +0.0%	2.6%	$17.3K	Kalshi 2.1% 2–2.2¢ Vol $315	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.5¢ Vol $16.9K	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	1.1% ↓ -0.2%	0.3%	$49.9K	Kalshi 1.4% 1.2–1.5¢ Vol $475	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $49.4K	Gemini — —	OG — —
EM Elon Musk	1.0% ↓ -0.1%	—	$14.0K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $14.0K	Gemini — —	OG — —
GA Greg Abbott	1.0% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$13.1K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $13.1K	Gemini — —	OG — —
IT Ivanka Trump	1.0% ↓ -0.3%	—	$33.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $33.4K	Gemini — —	OG — —
MO Michelle Obama	1.0% ↑ +0.2%	—	$8.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $8.9K	Gemini — —	OG — —
SAS Stephen A. Smith	1.0% ↑ +0.1%	0.4%	$16.8K	Kalshi 0.6% 0.5–0.7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $16.8K	Gemini — —	OG — —
GW Gretchen Whitmer	0.9% ↓ -1.4%	1.1%	$10.9K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $80	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $10.9K	Gemini — —	OG 2.0% 2¢
JD Jamie Dimon	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$22.5K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $22.5K	Gemini — —	OG — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	1.7%	$35.2K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.5¢ Vol $51	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $35.1K	Gemini — —	OG 2.0% 2¢
GY Glenn Youngkin	0.8% — +0.0%	1.3%	$25.5K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $4.0K	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $21.6K	Gemini — —	OG 2.0% 2¢
WM Wes Moore	0.8% ↓ -0.8%	0.5%	$31.7K	Kalshi 1.3% 1.2–1.4¢ Vol $117	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $31.6K	Gemini — —	OG — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.8% — +0.0%	1.5%	$61.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $61.1K	Gemini — —	OG 2.0% 2¢
ZM Zohran Mamdani	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	—	$39.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $39.8K	Gemini — —	OG — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	—	$31.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $31.7K	Gemini — —	OG — —
LJ LeBron James	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	—	$25.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $25.9K	Gemini — —	OG — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	0.7% ↓ -0.3%	0.8%	$47.9K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $47.9K	Gemini — —	OG 1.0% 1¢
TW Tim Walz	0.6% ↓ -0.1%	0.9%	$33.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.2¢ Vol $999	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $32.4K	Gemini — —	OG 1.0% 1¢

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10.3¢	Sell @ K 15¢	+4.70%	+4.55%	Yes
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 3.6¢	+1.70%	+1.63%	Yes
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 19¢	Sell @ P 20.1¢	+1.10%	+0.91%	No
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 2.8¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1.2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
JD Jamie Dimon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5.4¢	Sell @ P 5.6¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.7¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 1.2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.9¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.2¢	Sell @ K 5.2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.8¢	Sell @ P 2.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
GN Gavin Newsom	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 17.1¢	Sell @ K 17¢	-0.10%	-0.27%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 23.5%	B 4.0%	+19.50%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 1.8%	+18.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 2.1%	+18.20%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 2.9%	+17.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 2.9%	+17.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 3.4%	+16.90%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 2.1%	+16.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 2.7%	+15.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 2.9%	+15.60%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 3.1%	+15.45%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.1%	+15.40%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 17.1%	B 1.8%	+15.20%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 5.1%	+15.10%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 17.1%	B 2.1%	+15.00%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 3.7%	+14.85%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.7%	+14.85%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 20.3%	B 5.7%	+14.60%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.9%	+14.60%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 3.1%	+14.45%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 17.1%	B 2.9%	+14.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 17.1%	B 2.9%	+14.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 3.7%	+13.85%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 17.1%	B 3.4%	+13.70%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 15.5%	B 2.1%	+13.40%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 5.4%	+13.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 18.5%	B 5.4%	+13.15%	Buy spread
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Gemini	A 23.5%	B 10.5%	+13.00%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 15.5%	B 2.7%	+12.85%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 15.5%	B 2.9%	+12.60%	Buy spread
MR Marco Rubio	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 15.5%	B 3.1%	+12.45%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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