Who Will Win 2028 US Presidential Race: Odds & Predictions

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Updated 11 minutes ago · 12:43 AM PDT

Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 97.0% probability (-3,233). A Cory Booker win stands at 83.0% (-488), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from 4 prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $165.4K, with $14.3K at Kalshi and $151.0K at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread
3.61%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez → View arbs
Current Favorite
97.0%
Ted Cruz +89.0%
24H Volume (Share)
$165.4K
K: 8.6% P: 91.3% G: 0.1%
Momentum Leader
+89.0%
Ted Cruz YTD change

Top sites to trade on 2028 Presidential Election

Probability Over Time

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Outcome:
Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms
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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
TC
Ted Cruz
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 97.0%
↑ +89.0%
O 97.0%
CB
Cory Booker
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 83.0%
↑ +75.0%
O 83.0%
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 69.0%
↑ +61.0%
O 69.0%
JDV
J.D. Vance
Vol $34.9K Spread 6.0%
Agg 21.1%
↓ -9.2%
O 27.0%
K 22.5%
G 22.5%
P 21.1%
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $10.6K Spread 5.8%
Agg 12.3%
↑ +5.0%
O 15.0%
P 13.1%
K 9.3%
MR
Marco Rubio
Vol $3.6K Spread 5.5%
Agg 10.6%
↑ +6.0%
O 16.0%
G 14.5%
P 10.5%
K 10.5%
GN
Gavin Newsom
Vol $13.0K Spread 5.4%
Agg 7.7%
↓ -9.8%
O 13.0%
K 7.9%
P 7.6%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $2.8K Spread 6.0%
Agg 4.6%
↑ +1.5%
O 10.0%
P 4.8%
K 4.1%
JS
Josh Shapiro
Vol $2.3K Spread 5.3%
Agg 3.1%
↑ +0.6%
O 8.0%
P 3.4%
K 2.8%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Vol $26.6K Spread 5.4%
Agg 2.6%
↑ +0.1%
O 8.0%
K 2.9%
P 2.6%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Vol $6.2K Spread 1.6%
Agg 2.1%
↓ -1.1%
G 3.5%
K 2.9%
P 2.0%
RD
Ron DeSantis
Vol $38.8K Spread 6.2%
Agg 1.8%
↑ +0.4%
O 8.0%
K 2.6%
P 1.8%
TC
Tucker Carlson
Vol $5.6K Spread
Agg 1.6%
↑ +0.1%
P 1.6%
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $2.0K Spread
Agg 1.5%
↓ -0.6%
P 1.5%
AB
Andy Beshear
Vol $11.5K Spread 6.0%
Agg 1.3%
↓ -0.4%
O 7.0%
K 2.7%
P 1.1%
WM
Wes Moore
Vol $245 Spread 0.4%
Agg 1.1%
↓ -0.4%
K 1.3%
P 0.9%
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol $336 Spread 0.3%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -0.2%
P 0.5%
K 0.3%
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Vol $128 Spread 5.6%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -0.6%
O 6.0%
K 0.7%
P 0.4%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $1.0K Spread 0.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -0.8%
K 1.0%
P 0.4%
JD
Jamie Dimon
Vol $1.6K Spread 0.3%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -0.1%
K 0.8%
P 0.4%
IT
Ivanka Trump
Vol $579 Spread
Agg 0.4%
↓ -0.8%
P 0.4%
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Vol $486 Spread 5.6%
Agg 0.4%
↓ -0.8%
O 6.0%
K 0.8%
P 0.4%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol $10 Spread 5.9%
Agg 0.3%
↓ -0.7%
O 6.0%
K 0.3%
P 0.1%
NH
Nikki Haley
Vol $63 Spread 5.9%
Agg 0.2%
↓ -0.5%
O 6.0%
K 0.3%
P 0.1%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Vol $2.2K Spread 5.9%
Agg 0.2%
↓ -0.5%
O 6.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.2%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Vol $495 Spread 5.9%
Agg 0.2%
↓ -0.6%
O 6.0%
K 0.4%
P 0.2%
EM
Elon Musk
Vol $216 Spread
Agg 0.2%
↓ -0.8%
P 0.2%
MO
Michelle Obama
Vol $157 Spread
Agg 0.2%
↓ -0.6%
P 0.2%
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Vol $24 Spread 0.1%
Agg 0.1%
↓ -0.7%
K 0.2%
P 0.1%
KK
Kim Kardashian
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.1%
↓ -0.8%
P 0.1%
LJ
LeBron James
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.1%
↓ -0.8%
P 0.1%
TW
Tim Walz
Vol $11 Spread 5.9%
Agg 0.1%
↓ -0.7%
O 6.0%
K 0.1%
P 0.1%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.1%
↓ -0.8%
P 0.1%
Outcome Aggregated Spread Volume Kalshi Polymarket Gemini OG
TC
Ted Cruz
97.0%
↑ +89.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Gemini
OG 97.0%
97¢
CB
Cory Booker
83.0%
↑ +75.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Gemini
OG 83.0%
83¢
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
69.0%
↑ +61.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Gemini
OG 69.0%
69¢
JDV
J.D. Vance
21.1%
↓ -9.2%
6.0%
$34.9K
Kalshi 22.5%
22–23¢ Vol $1.8K
Polymarket 21.1%
21–21.1¢ Vol $33.1K
Gemini 22.5%
22–23¢ Vol $0
OG 27.0%
27¢
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12.3%
↑ +5.0%
5.8%
$10.6K
Kalshi 9.3%
9.2–9.3¢ Vol $2.1K
Polymarket 13.1%
13–13.2¢ Vol $8.5K
Gemini
OG 15.0%
15¢
MR
Marco Rubio
10.6%
↑ +6.0%
5.5%
$3.6K
Kalshi 10.5%
10–11¢ Vol $3.4K
Polymarket 10.5%
10.5–10.6¢ Vol $45
Gemini 14.5%
14–15¢ Vol $120
OG 16.0%
16¢
GN
Gavin Newsom
7.7%
↓ -9.8%
5.4%
$13.0K
Kalshi 7.9%
7.8–8¢ Vol $668
Polymarket 7.6%
7.5–7.8¢ Vol $12.3K
Gemini
OG 13.0%
13¢
KH
Kamala Harris
4.6%
↑ +1.5%
6.0%
$2.8K
Kalshi 4.1%
4–4.1¢ Vol $644
Polymarket 4.8%
4.7–4.8¢ Vol $2.1K
Gemini
OG 10.0%
10¢
JS
Josh Shapiro
3.1%
↑ +0.6%
5.3%
$2.3K
Kalshi 2.8%
2.7–2.8¢ Vol $779
Polymarket 3.4%
3.3–3.4¢ Vol $1.6K
Gemini
OG 8.0%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
2.6%
↑ +0.1%
5.4%
$26.6K
Kalshi 2.9%
2.7–3¢ Vol $89
Polymarket 2.6%
2.5–2.7¢ Vol $26.5K
Gemini
OG 8.0%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
2.1%
↓ -1.1%
1.6%
$6.2K
Kalshi 2.9%
2.8–2.9¢ Vol $765
Polymarket 2.0%
1.9–2¢ Vol $5.4K
Gemini 3.5%
3–4¢ Vol $0
OG
RD
Ron DeSantis
1.8%
↑ +0.4%
6.2%
$38.8K
Kalshi 2.6%
2.5–2.7¢ Vol $1.7K
Polymarket 1.8%
1.6–2¢ Vol $37.1K
Gemini
OG 8.0%
TC
Tucker Carlson
1.6%
↑ +0.1%
$5.6K
Kalshi
Polymarket 1.6%
1.5–1.6¢ Vol $5.6K
Gemini
OG
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1.5%
↓ -0.6%
$2.0K
Kalshi
Polymarket 1.5%
1.4–1.5¢ Vol $2.0K
Gemini
OG
AB
Andy Beshear
1.3%
↓ -0.4%
6.0%
$11.5K
Kalshi 2.7%
2.6–2.8¢ Vol $1.4K
Polymarket 1.1%
1–1.1¢ Vol $10.0K
Gemini
OG 7.0%
WM
Wes Moore
1.1%
↓ -0.4%
0.4%
$245
Kalshi 1.3%
1.1–1.4¢ Vol $163
Polymarket 0.9%
0.8–0.9¢ Vol $81
Gemini
OG
GA
Greg Abbott
0.5%
↓ -0.2%
0.3%
$336
Kalshi 0.3%
0.2–0.3¢ Vol $11
Polymarket 0.5%
0.5–0.6¢ Vol $325
Gemini
OG
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
0.5%
↓ -0.6%
5.6%
$128
Kalshi 0.7%
0.5–0.9¢ Vol $25
Polymarket 0.4%
0.4–0.5¢ Vol $103
Gemini
OG 6.0%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
0.5%
↓ -0.8%
0.5%
$1.0K
Kalshi 1.0%
0.9–1¢ Vol $20
Polymarket 0.4%
0.4–0.5¢ Vol $998
Gemini
OG
JD
Jamie Dimon
0.5%
↓ -0.1%
0.3%
$1.6K
Kalshi 0.8%
0.6–0.9¢ Vol $2
Polymarket 0.4%
0.4–0.5¢ Vol $1.6K
Gemini
OG
IT
Ivanka Trump
0.4%
↓ -0.8%
$579
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.4%
0.4–0.5¢ Vol $579
Gemini
OG
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
0.4%
↓ -0.8%
5.6%
$486
Kalshi 0.8%
0.7–0.8¢ Vol $11
Polymarket 0.4%
0.3–0.4¢ Vol $475
Gemini
OG 6.0%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.3%
↓ -0.7%
5.9%
$10
Kalshi 0.3%
0.2–0.3¢ Vol $10
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $0
Gemini
OG 6.0%
NH
Nikki Haley
0.2%
↓ -0.5%
5.9%
$63
Kalshi 0.3%
0.2–0.3¢ Vol $58
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $5
Gemini
OG 6.0%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
0.2%
↓ -0.5%
5.9%
$2.2K
Kalshi 0.5%
0.4–0.6¢ Vol $518
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $1.7K
Gemini
OG 6.0%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
0.2%
↓ -0.6%
5.9%
$495
Kalshi 0.4%
0.3–0.4¢ Vol $10
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $485
Gemini
OG 6.0%
EM
Elon Musk
0.2%
↓ -0.8%
$216
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $216
Gemini
OG
MO
Michelle Obama
0.2%
↓ -0.6%
$157
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $157
Gemini
OG
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
0.1%
↓ -0.7%
0.1%
$24
Kalshi 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $20
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $4
Gemini
OG
KK
Kim Kardashian
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $0
Gemini
OG
LJ
LeBron James
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $0
Gemini
OG
TW
Tim Walz
0.1%
↓ -0.7%
5.9%
$11
Kalshi 0.1%
0–0.1¢ Vol $2
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $9
Gemini
OG 6.0%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.1%
0.1¢ Vol $0
Gemini
OG

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome Venue Pair Leg A (Buy) Leg B (Sell) Gross Spread After Fees Actionable Trade Now
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Kalshi Polymarket
Buy @ K
9.3¢
Sell @ P
13¢
+3.70%
+3.61%
Yes
MR
Marco Rubio
Polymarket Gemini
Buy @ P
10.6¢
Sell @ G
14¢
+3.40%
+3.34%
Yes
AB
Andy Beshear
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
1.1¢
Sell @ K
2.6¢
+1.50%
+1.43%
No
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Polymarket Gemini
Buy @ P
Sell @ G
+1.00%
+0.99%
No
JDV
J.D. Vance
Polymarket Gemini
Buy @ P
21.1¢
Sell @ G
22¢
+0.90%
+0.81%
No
KH
Kamala Harris
Kalshi Polymarket
Buy @ K
4.1¢
Sell @ P
4.7¢
+0.60%
+0.53%
No
JS
Josh Shapiro
Kalshi Polymarket
Buy @ K
2.8¢
Sell @ P
3.3¢
+0.50%
+0.43%
No
RD
Ron DeSantis
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
Sell @ K
2.5¢
+0.50%
+0.43%
No
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.5¢
Sell @ K
0.9¢
+0.40%
+0.33%
No
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.4¢
Sell @ K
0.7¢
+0.30%
+0.23%
No
WM
Wes Moore
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.9¢
Sell @ K
1.1¢
+0.20%
+0.13%
No
GA
Greg Abbott
Kalshi Polymarket
Buy @ K
0.3¢
Sell @ P
0.5¢
+0.20%
+0.13%
No
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.2¢
Sell @ K
0.4¢
+0.20%
+0.13%
No
JD
Jamie Dimon
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.5¢
Sell @ K
0.6¢
+0.10%
+0.03%
No
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.1¢
Sell @ K
0.2¢
+0.10%
+0.03%
No
NH
Nikki Haley
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.1¢
Sell @ K
0.2¢
+0.10%
+0.03%
No
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.2¢
Sell @ K
0.3¢
+0.10%
+0.03%
No
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
2.7¢
Sell @ K
2.7¢
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.5¢
Sell @ K
0.5¢
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.1¢
Sell @ K
0.1¢
+0.00%
-0.07%
No
GN
Gavin Newsom
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
7.8¢
Sell @ K
7.8¢
+0.00%
-0.08%
No
TW
Tim Walz
Polymarket Kalshi
Buy @ P
0.1¢
Sell @ K
-0.10%
-0.10%
No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A Outcome B Venue A Odds B Odds Diff Strategy Trade Now
JDV
J.D. Vance
RD
Ron DeSantis
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
2.6%
+19.90%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
AB
Andy Beshear
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
2.7%
+19.80%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
JS
Josh Shapiro
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
2.8%
+19.75%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
2.9%
+19.65%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
2.9%
+19.65%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
TC
Tucker Carlson
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
1.6%
+19.50%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
RD
Ron DeSantis
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
1.8%
+19.25%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
2.0%
+19.10%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Gemini
A
22.5%
B
3.5%
+19.00%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
KH
Kamala Harris
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
4.1%
+18.45%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
2.6%
+18.45%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
JS
Josh Shapiro
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
3.4%
+17.70%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
KH
Kamala Harris
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
4.8%
+16.30%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
GN
Gavin Newsom
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
7.9%
+14.60%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
GN
Gavin Newsom
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
7.6%
+13.40%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
9.3%
+13.25%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
MR
Marco Rubio
Kalshi
A
22.5%
B
10.5%
+12.00%
Buy spread
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
TC
Tucker Carlson
Polymarket
A
13.1%
B
1.6%
+11.55%
Buy spread
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
RD
Ron DeSantis
Polymarket
A
13.1%
B
1.8%
+11.30%
Buy spread
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Polymarket
A
13.1%
B
2.0%
+11.15%
Buy spread
MR
Marco Rubio
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Gemini
A
14.5%
B
3.5%
+11.00%
Buy spread
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Polymarket
A
13.1%
B
2.6%
+10.50%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
MR
Marco Rubio
Polymarket
A
21.1%
B
10.5%
+10.50%
Buy spread
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
JS
Josh Shapiro
Polymarket
A
13.1%
B
3.4%
+9.75%
Buy spread
MR
Marco Rubio
TC
Tucker Carlson
Polymarket
A
10.5%
B
1.6%
+9.00%
Buy spread
MR
Marco Rubio
RD
Ron DeSantis
Polymarket
A
10.5%
B
1.8%
+8.75%
Buy spread
MR
Marco Rubio
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Polymarket
A
10.5%
B
2.0%
+8.60%
Buy spread
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KH
Kamala Harris
Polymarket
A
13.1%
B
4.8%
+8.35%
Buy spread
JDV
J.D. Vance
MR
Marco Rubio
Gemini
A
22.5%
B
14.5%
+8.00%
Buy spread
MR
Marco Rubio
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Polymarket
A
10.5%
B
2.6%
+7.95%
Buy spread
Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side
Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)
Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side
Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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