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2028 Presidential Election Winner Odds

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Updated 28 minutes ago · 7:41 AM PST

Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 30.4% probability (+229). A Gavin Newsom win stands at 17.5% (+471), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $1.0M, with $3.0K at Kalshi and $1.0M at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.

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Largest Spread

1.73%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Consensus Leader

30.4%

J.D. Vance

24H Volume (Share)

$1.0M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Total Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
JDV J.D. Vance	30.4% ↓ -0.1%	1.0%	$28.0K K: $2.7K \| P: $25.3K	K 29.5% 29–30¢	P 30.5% 30–31¢
GN Gavin Newsom	17.5% ↓ -0.6%	2.0%	$34.0K K: $63 \| P: $33.9K	K 19.5% 19–20¢	P 17.5% 17–18¢
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	7.5% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$75.4K K: $123 \| P: $75.3K	K 7.0% 6–8¢	P 7.5% 7–8¢
MR Marco Rubio	4.2% — +0.0%	2.4%	$4.3K K: $0 \| P: $4.3K	K 6.5% 6–7¢	P 4.2% 4.1–4.2¢
DJT Donald J. Trump	3.9% — +0.0%	1.7%	$4.3K K: $11 \| P: $4.3K	K 5.5% 5–6¢	P 3.9% 3.8–3.9¢
KH Kamala Harris	3.5% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$6.2K K: $22 \| P: $6.1K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 3.5% 3.4–3.5¢
PB Pete Buttigieg	2.5% — +0.0%	1.1%	$2.5K K: $4 \| P: $2.5K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	2.2% ↑ +0.1%	—	$5.9K K: $0 \| P: $5.9K	K — —	P 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢
JS Josh Shapiro	2.0% — +0.0%	0.6%	$11.8K K: $31 \| P: $11.8K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 2.0% 1.9–2¢
JBP J.B. Pritzker	1.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.8%	$1.1K K: $0 \| P: $1.1K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 1.8% 1.7–1.8¢
AB Andy Beshear	1.6% — +0.0%	1.0%	$3.5K K: $8 \| P: $3.5K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢
WM Wes Moore	1.6% ↑ +0.3%	1.0%	$5.5K K: $0 \| P: $5.5K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢
TC Tucker Carlson	1.6% ↓ -0.1%	—	$3.0K K: $0 \| P: $3.0K	K — —	P 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢
RD Ron DeSantis	1.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$3.5K K: $15 \| P: $3.5K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢
IT Ivanka Trump	1.4% — +0.0%	—	$58.8K K: $0 \| P: $58.8K	K — —	P 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.2% ↓ -0.1%	1.4%	$4.7K K: $0 \| P: $4.7K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	1.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$7.9K K: $0 \| P: $7.9K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.0% — +0.0%	0.4%	$24.5K K: $1 \| P: $24.5K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 1.0% 0.9–1¢
EM Elon Musk	1.0% ↓ -0.1%	—	$40.8K K: $0 \| P: $40.8K	K — —	P 1.0% 0.9–1¢
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$202.5K K: $1 \| P: $202.5K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢
JD Jamie Dimon	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$25.0K K: $0 \| P: $25.0K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢
LJ LeBron James	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$42.2K K: $0 \| P: $42.2K	K — —	P 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢
KK Kim Kardashian	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$17.4K K: $0 \| P: $17.4K	K — —	P 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢
TW Tim Walz	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$54.6K K: $0 \| P: $54.6K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$65.7K K: $1 \| P: $65.7K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
NH Nikki Haley	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$57.0K K: $0 \| P: $57.0K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
GY Glenn Youngkin	0.8% — +0.0%	0.8%	$14.2K K: $0 \| P: $14.2K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
GA Greg Abbott	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$81.4K K: $0 \| P: $81.4K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
ZM Zohran Mamdani	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$35.7K K: $0 \| P: $35.7K	K — —	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
MO Michelle Obama	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$94.5K K: $0 \| P: $94.5K	K — —	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.2¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+1.80%	+1.73%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.9¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 18¢	Sell @ K 19¢	+1.00%	+0.81%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JD Jamie Dimon	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 30¢	Sell @ P 30¢	+0.00%	-0.30%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 8¢	Sell @ P 7¢	-1.00%	-1.08%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
JDV J.D. Vance	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 1.75%	+28.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 1.95%	+28.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 2.15%	+28.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 2.45%	+28.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 3.45%	+27.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 2.50%	+27.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 2.50%	+27.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 2.50%	+27.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 3.85%	+26.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 4.15%	+26.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 3.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 3.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 5.50%	+24.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 6.50%	+23.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 30.50%	B 7.50%	+23.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 29.50%	B 7.00%	+22.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 2.50%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 2.50%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 2.50%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 3.50%	+16.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 3.50%	+16.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 1.75%	+15.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 1.95%	+15.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 2.15%	+15.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 2.45%	+15.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 3.45%	+14.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 5.50%	+14.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 3.85%	+13.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 17.50%	B 4.15%	+13.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 19.50%	B 6.50%	+13.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Absolute difference between Kalshi and Polymarket probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.