Who Will Win 2028 US Presidential Race: Odds & Predictions
Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 97.0% probability (-3,233). A Cory Booker win stands at 83.0% (-488), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from 4 prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $165.4K, with $14.3K at Kalshi and $151.0K at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.
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Probability Over Time
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Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TC
Ted Cruz
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
97.0%
↑ +89.0%
O
97.0%
CB
Cory Booker
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
83.0%
↑ +75.0%
O
83.0%
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
69.0%
↑ +61.0%
O
69.0%
JDV
J.D. Vance
Vol $34.9K
Spread 6.0%
Agg
21.1%
↓ -9.2%
O
27.0%
K
22.5%
G
22.5%
P
21.1%
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $10.6K
Spread 5.8%
Agg
12.3%
↑ +5.0%
O
15.0%
P
13.1%
K
9.3%
MR
Marco Rubio
Vol $3.6K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
10.6%
↑ +6.0%
O
16.0%
G
14.5%
P
10.5%
K
10.5%
GN
Gavin Newsom
Vol $13.0K
Spread 5.4%
Agg
7.7%
↓ -9.8%
O
13.0%
K
7.9%
P
7.6%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $2.8K
Spread 6.0%
Agg
4.6%
↑ +1.5%
O
10.0%
P
4.8%
K
4.1%
JS
Josh Shapiro
Vol $2.3K
Spread 5.3%
Agg
3.1%
↑ +0.6%
O
8.0%
P
3.4%
K
2.8%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Vol $26.6K
Spread 5.4%
Agg
2.6%
↑ +0.1%
O
8.0%
K
2.9%
P
2.6%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Vol $6.2K
Spread 1.6%
Agg
2.1%
↓ -1.1%
G
3.5%
K
2.9%
P
2.0%
RD
Ron DeSantis
Vol $38.8K
Spread 6.2%
Agg
1.8%
↑ +0.4%
O
8.0%
K
2.6%
P
1.8%
TC
Tucker Carlson
Vol $5.6K
Spread —
Agg
1.6%
↑ +0.1%
P
1.6%
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $2.0K
Spread —
Agg
1.5%
↓ -0.6%
P
1.5%
AB
Andy Beshear
Vol $11.5K
Spread 6.0%
Agg
1.3%
↓ -0.4%
O
7.0%
K
2.7%
P
1.1%
WM
Wes Moore
Vol $245
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.1%
↓ -0.4%
K
1.3%
P
0.9%
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol $336
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.2%
P
0.5%
K
0.3%
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Vol $128
Spread 5.6%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.6%
O
6.0%
K
0.7%
P
0.4%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $1.0K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.8%
K
1.0%
P
0.4%
JD
Jamie Dimon
Vol $1.6K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.1%
K
0.8%
P
0.4%
IT
Ivanka Trump
Vol $579
Spread —
Agg
0.4%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.4%
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Vol $486
Spread 5.6%
Agg
0.4%
↓ -0.8%
O
6.0%
K
0.8%
P
0.4%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol $10
Spread 5.9%
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.7%
O
6.0%
K
0.3%
P
0.1%
NH
Nikki Haley
Vol $63
Spread 5.9%
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.5%
O
6.0%
K
0.3%
P
0.1%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Vol $2.2K
Spread 5.9%
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.5%
O
6.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.2%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Vol $495
Spread 5.9%
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.6%
O
6.0%
K
0.4%
P
0.2%
EM
Elon Musk
Vol $216
Spread —
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.2%
MO
Michelle Obama
Vol $157
Spread —
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.6%
P
0.2%
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Vol $24
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.7%
K
0.2%
P
0.1%
KK
Kim Kardashian
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.1%
LJ
LeBron James
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.1%
TW
Tim Walz
Vol $11
Spread 5.9%
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.7%
O
6.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TC
Ted Cruz
|
97.0%
↑ +89.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
97.0%
|
|
CB
Cory Booker
|
83.0%
↑ +75.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
83.0%
|
|
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
|
69.0%
↑ +61.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
69.0%
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
21.1%
↓ -9.2%
|
6.0%
|
$34.9K
|
Kalshi
22.5%
|
Polymarket
21.1%
|
Gemini
22.5%
|
OG
27.0%
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
12.3%
↑ +5.0%
|
5.8%
|
$10.6K
|
Kalshi
9.3%
|
Polymarket
13.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
15.0%
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
10.6%
↑ +6.0%
|
5.5%
|
$3.6K
|
Kalshi
10.5%
|
Polymarket
10.5%
|
Gemini
14.5%
|
OG
16.0%
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
7.7%
↓ -9.8%
|
5.4%
|
$13.0K
|
Kalshi
7.9%
|
Polymarket
7.6%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
13.0%
|
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
4.6%
↑ +1.5%
|
6.0%
|
$2.8K
|
Kalshi
4.1%
|
Polymarket
4.8%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
10.0%
|
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
3.1%
↑ +0.6%
|
5.3%
|
$2.3K
|
Kalshi
2.8%
|
Polymarket
3.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
8.0%
|
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
2.6%
↑ +0.1%
|
5.4%
|
$26.6K
|
Kalshi
2.9%
|
Polymarket
2.6%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
8.0%
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
2.1%
↓ -1.1%
|
1.6%
|
$6.2K
|
Kalshi
2.9%
|
Polymarket
2.0%
|
Gemini
3.5%
|
OG
—
|
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
1.8%
↑ +0.4%
|
6.2%
|
$38.8K
|
Kalshi
2.6%
|
Polymarket
1.8%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
8.0%
|
|
TC
Tucker Carlson
|
1.6%
↑ +0.1%
|
—
|
$5.6K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.6%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
|
1.5%
↓ -0.6%
|
—
|
$2.0K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
1.3%
↓ -0.4%
|
6.0%
|
$11.5K
|
Kalshi
2.7%
|
Polymarket
1.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
7.0%
|
|
WM
Wes Moore
|
1.1%
↓ -0.4%
|
0.4%
|
$245
|
Kalshi
1.3%
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
|
0.5%
↓ -0.2%
|
0.3%
|
$336
|
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
|
0.5%
↓ -0.6%
|
5.6%
|
$128
|
Kalshi
0.7%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
|
0.5%
↓ -0.8%
|
0.5%
|
$1.0K
|
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
JD
Jamie Dimon
|
0.5%
↓ -0.1%
|
0.3%
|
$1.6K
|
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
IT
Ivanka Trump
|
0.4%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$579
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
|
0.4%
↓ -0.8%
|
5.6%
|
$486
|
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
0.3%
↓ -0.7%
|
5.9%
|
$10
|
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
NH
Nikki Haley
|
0.2%
↓ -0.5%
|
5.9%
|
$63
|
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
|
0.2%
↓ -0.5%
|
5.9%
|
$2.2K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
GY
Glenn Youngkin
|
0.2%
↓ -0.6%
|
5.9%
|
$495
|
Kalshi
0.4%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
EM
Elon Musk
|
0.2%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$216
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
MO
Michelle Obama
|
0.2%
↓ -0.6%
|
—
|
$157
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
|
0.1%
↓ -0.7%
|
0.1%
|
$24
|
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
KK
Kim Kardashian
|
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
LJ
LeBron James
|
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
TW
Tim Walz
|
0.1%
↓ -0.7%
|
5.9%
|
$11
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
|
0.1%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
9.3¢
|
Sell @ P
13¢
|
+3.70%
|
+3.61%
|
Yes
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
Polymarket
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ P
10.6¢
|
Sell @ G
14¢
|
+3.40%
|
+3.34%
|
Yes
|
|
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
1.1¢
|
Sell @ K
2.6¢
|
+1.50%
|
+1.43%
|
No
|
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ P
2¢
|
Sell @ G
3¢
|
+1.00%
|
+0.99%
|
No
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
Polymarket
→
Gemini
|
Buy @ P
21.1¢
|
Sell @ G
22¢
|
+0.90%
|
+0.81%
|
No
|
|
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
4.1¢
|
Sell @ P
4.7¢
|
+0.60%
|
+0.53%
|
No
|
|
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
2.8¢
|
Sell @ P
3.3¢
|
+0.50%
|
+0.43%
|
No
|
|
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
2¢
|
Sell @ K
2.5¢
|
+0.50%
|
+0.43%
|
No
|
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.5¢
|
Sell @ K
0.9¢
|
+0.40%
|
+0.33%
|
No
|
|
|
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.4¢
|
Sell @ K
0.7¢
|
+0.30%
|
+0.23%
|
No
|
|
|
WM
Wes Moore
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.9¢
|
Sell @ K
1.1¢
|
+0.20%
|
+0.13%
|
No
|
|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.3¢
|
Sell @ P
0.5¢
|
+0.20%
|
+0.13%
|
No
|
|
|
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.2¢
|
Sell @ K
0.4¢
|
+0.20%
|
+0.13%
|
No
|
|
|
JD
Jamie Dimon
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.5¢
|
Sell @ K
0.6¢
|
+0.10%
|
+0.03%
|
No
|
|
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0.2¢
|
+0.10%
|
+0.03%
|
No
|
|
|
NH
Nikki Haley
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0.2¢
|
+0.10%
|
+0.03%
|
No
|
|
|
GY
Glenn Youngkin
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.2¢
|
Sell @ K
0.3¢
|
+0.10%
|
+0.03%
|
No
|
|
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
2.7¢
|
Sell @ K
2.7¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.5¢
|
Sell @ K
0.5¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0.1¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
7.8¢
|
Sell @ K
7.8¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.08%
|
No
|
|
|
TW
Tim Walz
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.1¢
|
Sell @ K
0¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
2.6%
|
+19.90%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
2.7%
|
+19.80%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
2.8%
|
+19.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
2.9%
|
+19.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
2.9%
|
+19.65%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
TC
Tucker Carlson
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
1.6%
|
+19.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
1.8%
|
+19.25%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
2.0%
|
+19.10%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Gemini
|
A
22.5%
|
B
3.5%
|
+19.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
4.1%
|
+18.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
2.6%
|
+18.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
3.4%
|
+17.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
4.8%
|
+16.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
7.9%
|
+14.60%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
7.6%
|
+13.40%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
9.3%
|
+13.25%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
Kalshi
|
A
22.5%
|
B
10.5%
|
+12.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
TC
Tucker Carlson
|
Polymarket
|
A
13.1%
|
B
1.6%
|
+11.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
13.1%
|
B
1.8%
|
+11.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
|
A
13.1%
|
B
2.0%
|
+11.15%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Gemini
|
A
14.5%
|
B
3.5%
|
+11.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
|
A
13.1%
|
B
2.6%
|
+10.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
Polymarket
|
A
21.1%
|
B
10.5%
|
+10.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Polymarket
|
A
13.1%
|
B
3.4%
|
+9.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
TC
Tucker Carlson
|
Polymarket
|
A
10.5%
|
B
1.6%
|
+9.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
10.5%
|
B
1.8%
|
+8.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
|
A
10.5%
|
B
2.0%
|
+8.60%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Polymarket
|
A
13.1%
|
B
4.8%
|
+8.35%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
Gemini
|
A
22.5%
|
B
14.5%
|
+8.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
|
A
10.5%
|
B
2.6%
|
+7.95%
|
Buy spread
|
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
