2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

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Updated 56 minutes ago · 11:41 PM PST

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 37% probability of a win, equivalent to +170 betting odds. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 11% (+809), while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Vice President Kamala Harris are both at 5% (+1900).Our Democratic nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket to show consensus probabilities across both prediction markets. This data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP). Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

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Largest Spread

1.93%

Kamala Harris → View arbs

Consensus Leader

36.0%

Gavin Newsom

24H Volume (Share)

$2.8M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Total Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	36.0% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$34.4K K: $1.1K \| P: $33.3K	K 35.5% 35–36¢	P 36.0% 35–37¢
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	10.5% ↑ +0.1%	1.0%	$6.7K K: $199 \| P: $6.5K	K 9.5% 9–10¢	P 10.5% 10–11¢
JS Josh Shapiro	5.1% ↓ -0.1%	0.4%	$40.8K K: $134 \| P: $40.7K	K 5.5% 5–6¢	P 5.1% 5–5.1¢
KH Kamala Harris	5.0% ↑ +0.1%	2.5%	$84.5K K: $259 \| P: $84.3K	K 7.5% 7–8¢	P 5.0% 4.9–5¢
PB Pete Buttigieg	4.6% — +0.0%	1.0%	$3.3K K: $188 \| P: $3.1K	K 5.5% 5–6¢	P 4.5% 4–5¢
JO Jon Ossoff	3.1% ↑ +0.4%	2.4%	$45.8K K: $0 \| P: $45.8K	K 5.5% 5–6¢	P 3.1% 3–3.2¢
WM Wes Moore	3.0% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$40.6K K: $41 \| P: $40.6K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 2.9% 2.9–3¢
JBP J.B. Pritzker	2.7% ↓ -0.2%	0.8%	$6.4K K: $46 \| P: $6.3K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 2.7% 2.6–2.8¢
AB Andy Beshear	2.7% ↑ +0.2%	0.8%	$33.2K K: $87 \| P: $33.1K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 2.7% 2.6–2.8¢
MK Mark Kelly	2.6% ↓ -0.3%	1.0%	$27.8K K: $49 \| P: $27.8K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 2.6% 2.5–2.6¢
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.9% ↓ -0.3%	1.7%	$48.7K K: $22 \| P: $48.7K	K 3.5% 3–4¢	P 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢
DJ Dwayne Johnson	1.6% ↑ +0.2%	1.1%	$17.3K K: $0 \| P: $17.3K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 1.6% 1.5–1.7¢
RE Rahm Emanuel	1.6% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$3.4K K: $163 \| P: $3.2K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 1.6% 1.5–1.7¢
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	1.1% ↑ +0.2%	1.4%	$28.9K K: $0 \| P: $28.9K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 1.1% 1–1.2¢
JF John Fetterman	1.0% — +0.0%	0.4%	$10.3K K: $0 \| P: $10.3K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 1.0% 0.9–1¢
CB Cory Booker	1.0% ↓ -0.5%	0.5%	$35.5K K: $2 \| P: $35.5K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 1.0% 0.9–1¢
MO Michelle Obama	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$100.9K K: $102 \| P: $100.8K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 1.0% 0.9–1¢
RG Ruben Gallego	0.9% — +0.0%	1.7%	$5.4K K: $0 \| P: $5.4K	K 2.5% 2–3¢	P 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢
LJ Lebron James	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$70.6K K: $0 \| P: $70.6K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢
MC Mark Cuban	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$17.4K K: $2 \| P: $17.4K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢
RK Ro Khanna	0.7% — +0.0%	0.9%	$15.2K K: $175 \| P: $15.0K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.9%	$120.1K K: $113 \| P: $120.0K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.9%	$80.7K K: $0 \| P: $80.7K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢
RC Roy Cooper	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$67.6K K: $0 \| P: $67.6K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢
LC Liz Cheney	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$19.1K K: $0 \| P: $19.1K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$16.6K K: $0 \| P: $16.6K	K — —	P 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢
TW Tim Walz	0.5% ↑ +0.1%	0.0%	$474.9K K: $0 \| P: $474.9K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
RW Raphael Warnock	0.5% — +0.0%	1.0%	$30.8K K: $0 \| P: $30.8K	K 1.5% 1–2¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
PM Phil Murphy	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$13.9K K: $0 \| P: $13.9K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
JP Jared Polis	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$16.2K K: $0 \| P: $16.2K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
HB Hunter Biden	0.5% ↑ +0.1%	0.0%	$376.1K K: $0 \| P: $376.1K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
CM Chris Murphy	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$167.1K K: $0 \| P: $167.1K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
BO Barack Obama	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$39.6K K: $7 \| P: $39.5K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
HC Hilary Clinton	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$22.5K K: $0 \| P: $22.5K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
GC George Clooney	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$111.9K K: $0 \| P: $111.9K	K — —	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
CC Chelsea Clinton	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$50.4K K: $0 \| P: $50.4K	K — —	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
MR MrBeast	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$108.7K K: $0 \| P: $108.7K	K — —	P 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢
JT James Talarico	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$8 K: $8 \| P: $0	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P — —
JD Jamie Dimon	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0 K: $0 \| P: $0	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P — —
ES Elissa Slotkin	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0 K: $0 \| P: $0	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P — —
GR Gina Raimondo	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$15.6K K: $0 \| P: $15.6K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢
BS Bernie Sanders	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$36.1K K: $0 \| P: $36.1K	K 0.5% 0–1¢	P 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢
OW Oprah Winfrey	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$48.5K K: $0 \| P: $48.5K	K — —	P 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢
AY Andrew Yang	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$23.0K K: $0 \| P: $23.0K	K — —	P 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢
BOR Beto O’Rourke	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$93.4K K: $0 \| P: $93.4K	K — —	P 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢
JC Jasmine Crockett	0.4% — +0.0%	—	$210.4K K: $0 \| P: $210.4K	K — —	P 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Quick Links
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5¢	Sell @ K 7¢	+2.00%	+1.93%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.2¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.80%	+1.73%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJ Dwayne Johnson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.5¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.6¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RW Raphael Warnock	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RK Ro Khanna	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.8¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.8¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 10¢	Sell @ P 10¢	+0.00%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CB Cory Booker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.1¢	Sell @ K 5¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JF John Fetterman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MO Michelle Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LJ Lebron James	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MC Mark Cuban	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RC Roy Cooper	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LC Liz Cheney	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PM Phil Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JP Jared Polis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
HB Hunter Biden	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
CM Chris Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BO Barack Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
HC Hilary Clinton	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GR Gina Raimondo	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BS Bernie Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RE Rahm Emanuel	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 36¢	Sell @ P 35¢	-1.00%	-1.36%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Quick Link
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 2.55%	+33.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 2.70%	+33.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 2.70%	+33.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 2.95%	+33.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 3.10%	+32.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 3.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 3.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 3.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 3.50%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 4.50%	+31.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 4.95%	+31.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 5.05%	+30.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 5.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 5.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 5.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 7.50%	+28.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 35.50%	B 9.50%	+26.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 36.00%	B 10.50%	+25.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.55%	+7.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.70%	+7.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.70%	+7.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 2.95%	+7.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 3.10%	+7.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 4.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 4.95%	+5.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 10.50%	B 5.05%	+5.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Absolute difference between Kalshi and Polymarket probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.