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2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

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Updated 37 minutes ago · 6:40 PM PDT

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 36% probability, down slightly from 37% as rivals plot to undermine his frontrunner status. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 10.5% (+809) while Vice President Kamala Harris has climbed to 5.3% (+1800). Harris's odds ticked up following her DNC winter meeting speech unveiling new 'both parties failed' message. Our Democratic nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket to show consensus probabilities across both prediction markets. This data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread

1.83%

J.B. Pritzker → View arbs

Consensus Leader

25.5%

Gavin Newsom 9.3%

24H Volume (Share)

$6.8M

Momentum Leader

+2.5%

James Talarico YTD change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Gavin Newsom

Vol $212.8K Spread 6.6%

Agg 25.5%

↓ -9.3%

California Governor

F 32.0%

K 26.5%

P 25.5%

ForecastEx 32.0%

Vol $32 32¢

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $13.4K 26–27¢

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $199.4K 25.4–25.5¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $35.8K Spread 4.5%

Agg 8.8%

↓ -3.6%

NY Representative

F 13.0%

P 8.9%

K 8.5%

ForecastEx 13.0%

Vol $0 13¢

Polymarket 8.9%

Vol $33.2K 8.8–8.9¢

Kalshi 8.5%

Vol $2.6K 8–9¢

Beshear

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

— +0.0%

F 5.0%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Jon Ossoff

Vol $57.9K Spread 1.6%

Agg 4.9%

↑ +1.3%

K 6.5%

P 4.9%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $382 6–7¢

Polymarket 4.9%

Vol $57.5K 4.8–5¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $53.2K Spread 7.1%

Agg 4.9%

↑ +1.0%

F 12.0%

K 6.5%

P 4.9%

ForecastEx 12.0%

Vol $0 12¢

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $229 6–7¢

Polymarket 4.9%

Vol $53.0K 4.8–4.9¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $49.0K Spread 7.0%

Agg 4.2%

↓ -1.2%

F 11.0%

K 6.5%

P 4.1%

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $0 11¢

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $2.1K 6–7¢

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $46.9K 4–4.1¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $215.7K Spread 4.5%

Agg 3.6%

↓ -1.0%

F 8.0%

P 3.6%

K 3.5%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $0 8¢

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $215.4K 3.5–3.7¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $303 3–4¢

James Talarico

Vol $3.3K Spread —

Agg 3.0%

↑ +2.5%

K 3.0%

Kalshi 3.0%

Vol $3.3K 2–4¢

Mark Kelly

Vol $101.5K Spread 1.2%

Agg 2.4%

↑ +0.4%

K 3.5%

P 2.4%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $99 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $101.4K 2.3–2.4¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $40.9K Spread 1.3%

Agg 2.2%

↓ -2.5%

K 3.5%

P 2.2%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1.0K 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $39.8K 2.1–2.3¢

Jon Stewart

Vol $54.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 2.2%

↑ +1.3%

Comedian

K 2.5%

P 2.2%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $23 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $54.3K 2.1–2.2¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $142.7K Spread 2.4%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -0.1%

K 4.5%

F 4.0%

P 2.1%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $1.2K 4–5¢

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $141.5K 2–2.1¢

Ruben Gallego

Vol $7.9K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.8%

↑ +0.7%

K 2.5%

P 1.8%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $40 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $7.9K 1.7–1.9¢

Ro Khanna

Vol $2.4K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.7%

↑ +0.4%

K 2.5%

P 1.7%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $70 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $2.3K 1.6–1.7¢

Wes Moore

Vol $221.9K Spread 2.5%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.9%

F 4.0%

K 3.5%

P 1.5%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $290 3–4¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $221.6K 1.4–1.6¢

Rahm Emanuel

Vol $358.3K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.4%

K 2.5%

P 1.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $246 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $358.1K 1.4–1.6¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $17.0K Spread 2.6%

Agg 1.4%

↓ -3.1%

F 4.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.4%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $86 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $16.9K 1.3–1.5¢

Dwayne Johnson

Vol $20.0K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.4%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.4%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $20.0K 1.3–1.4¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $74.5K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.4%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $74.5K 1.3–1.4¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $16 0–1¢

Cory Booker

Vol $32.7K Spread 0.2%

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.5%

K 1.5%

P 1.3%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $76 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $32.6K 1.2–1.3¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $48.4K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.2%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $79 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $48.3K 1.1–1.2¢

Gina Raimondo

Vol $52.8K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.6%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $52.8K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Lebron James

Vol $71.5K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $71.5K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Phil Murphy

Vol $11.3K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.5%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $11.3K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

John Fetterman

Vol $27.4K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.2%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $27.4K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $47 0–1¢

Andrew Yang

Vol $161.6K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $161.6K 0.9–1¢

Barack Obama

Vol $71.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.3%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $71.1K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Chris Murphy

Vol $34.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.3%

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $34.1K 0.9–1¢

Hunter Biden

Vol $114.9K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $114.9K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Liz Cheney

Vol $68.1K Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $68.1K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Mark Cuban

Vol $1.3M Spread 0.4%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $1.3M 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

MrBeast

Vol $88.5K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $88.5K 0.9–1¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $222.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

NYC Mayor

K 1.5%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $222.1K 0.9–1¢

BOR

Beto O’Rourke

Vol $94.5K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $94.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Chelsea Clinton

Vol $185.2K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $185.2K 0.8–0.9¢

George Clooney

Vol $50.2K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $50.2K 0.8–0.9¢

Hilary Clinton

Vol $59.0K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $59.0K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Jasmine Crockett

Vol $53.3K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $53.3K 0.8–0.9¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $62.8K Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $62.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Roy Cooper

Vol $78.6K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $78.6K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Bernie Sanders

Vol $82.5K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $82.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Jared Polis

Vol $149.0K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $149.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $21 0–1¢

Oprah Winfrey

Vol $101.7K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $101.7K 0.7–0.8¢

Raphael Warnock

Vol $1.8M Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $4 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $1.8M 0.7–0.8¢

Tim Walz

Vol $195.6K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $195.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Elissa Slotkin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $1 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	25.5% ↓ -9.3%	6.6%	$212.8K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $13.4K	Polymarket 25.5% 25.4–25.5¢ Vol $199.4K	ForecastEx 32.0% 32¢ Vol $32
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	8.8% ↓ -3.6%	4.5%	$35.8K	Kalshi 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $2.6K	Polymarket 8.9% 8.8–8.9¢ Vol $33.2K	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $0
BE Beshear	5.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
JO Jon Ossoff	4.9% ↑ +1.3%	1.6%	$57.9K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $382	Polymarket 4.9% 4.8–5¢ Vol $57.5K	ForecastEx — —
KH Kamala Harris	4.9% ↑ +1.0%	7.1%	$53.2K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $229	Polymarket 4.9% 4.8–4.9¢ Vol $53.0K	ForecastEx 12.0% 12¢ Vol $0
JS Josh Shapiro	4.2% ↓ -1.2%	7.0%	$49.0K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket 4.1% 4–4.1¢ Vol $46.9K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $0
PB Pete Buttigieg	3.6% ↓ -1.0%	4.5%	$215.7K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $303	Polymarket 3.6% 3.5–3.7¢ Vol $215.4K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $0
JT James Talarico	3.0% ↑ +2.5%	—	$3.3K	Kalshi 3.0% 2–4¢ Vol $3.3K	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
MK Mark Kelly	2.4% ↑ +0.4%	1.2%	$101.5K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $99	Polymarket 2.4% 2.3–2.4¢ Vol $101.4K	ForecastEx — —
AB Andy Beshear	2.2% ↓ -2.5%	1.3%	$40.9K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.3¢ Vol $39.8K	ForecastEx — —
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	2.2% ↑ +1.3%	0.4%	$54.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢ Vol $54.3K	ForecastEx — —
JBP J.B. Pritzker	2.1% ↓ -0.1%	2.4%	$142.7K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $141.5K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RG Ruben Gallego	1.8% ↑ +0.7%	0.7%	$7.9K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $40	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.9¢ Vol $7.9K	ForecastEx — —
RK Ro Khanna	1.7% ↑ +0.4%	0.9%	$2.4K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $70	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $2.3K	ForecastEx — —
WM Wes Moore	1.5% ↓ -0.9%	2.5%	$221.9K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $290	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $221.6K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RE Rahm Emanuel	1.5% ↓ -0.4%	1.0%	$358.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $246	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $358.1K	ForecastEx — —
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.4% ↓ -3.1%	2.6%	$17.0K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $86	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.5¢ Vol $16.9K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
DJ Dwayne Johnson	1.4% ↑ +0.1%	0.9%	$20.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $20.0K	ForecastEx — —
MO Michelle Obama	1.3% ↑ +0.4%	0.9%	$74.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $16	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $74.5K	ForecastEx — —
CB Cory Booker	1.3% ↑ +0.5%	0.2%	$32.7K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $76	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $32.6K	ForecastEx — —
SAS Stephen A. Smith	1.2% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$48.4K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $79	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $48.3K	ForecastEx — —
GR Gina Raimondo	1.1% ↑ +0.6%	0.6%	$52.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $52.8K	ForecastEx — —
LJ Lebron James	1.1% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$71.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $71.5K	ForecastEx — —
PM Phil Murphy	1.1% ↑ +0.5%	0.6%	$11.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $11.3K	ForecastEx — —
JF John Fetterman	1.0% ↓ -0.2%	0.6%	$27.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $47	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $27.4K	ForecastEx — —
AY Andrew Yang	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$161.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $161.6K	ForecastEx — —
BO Barack Obama	1.0% ↑ +0.3%	0.4%	$71.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $71.1K	ForecastEx — —
CM Chris Murphy	1.0% ↑ +0.3%	0.5%	$34.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $34.1K	ForecastEx — —
HB Hunter Biden	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	0.4%	$114.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $114.9K	ForecastEx — —
LC Liz Cheney	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	0.4%	$68.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $68.1K	ForecastEx — —
MC Mark Cuban	1.0% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$1.3M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $1.3M	ForecastEx — —
MR MrBeast	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$88.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $88.5K	ForecastEx — —
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	0.5%	$222.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $222.1K	ForecastEx — —
BOR Beto O’Rourke	0.9% — +0.0%	—	$94.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $94.5K	ForecastEx — —
CC Chelsea Clinton	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	—	$185.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $185.2K	ForecastEx — —
GC George Clooney	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	—	$50.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $50.2K	ForecastEx — —
HC Hilary Clinton	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	0.4%	$59.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $59.0K	ForecastEx — —
JC Jasmine Crockett	0.9% ↑ +0.3%	—	$53.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $53.3K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	—	$62.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $62.8K	ForecastEx — —
RC Roy Cooper	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$78.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $78.6K	ForecastEx — —
BS Bernie Sanders	0.8% ↑ +0.3%	0.2%	$82.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $82.5K	ForecastEx — —
JP Jared Polis	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	0.2%	$149.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $21	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $149.0K	ForecastEx — —
OW Oprah Winfrey	0.8% ↑ +0.3%	—	$101.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $101.7K	ForecastEx — —
RW Raphael Warnock	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.8%	$1.8M	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $1.8M	ForecastEx — —
TW Tim Walz	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.2%	$195.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $195.6K	ForecastEx — —
ES Elissa Slotkin	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
JD Jamie Dimon	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.1¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.40%	+1.33%	No
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.9¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No
JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.4¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 25.5¢	Sell @ K 26¢	+0.50%	+0.24%	No
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
RK Ro Khanna	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.7¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
DJ Dwayne Johnson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
MO Michelle Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
RW Raphael Warnock	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
GR Gina Raimondo	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
LJ Lebron James	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
PM Phil Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
JF John Fetterman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
CM Chris Murphy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
BO Barack Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
HB Hunter Biden	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
LC Liz Cheney	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
MC Mark Cuban	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
HC Hilary Clinton	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
RC Roy Cooper	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 9¢	Sell @ P 8.8¢	-0.20%	-0.29%	No
CB Cory Booker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
BS Bernie Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
JP Jared Polis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4¢	Sell @ P 3.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.1%	+23.40%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.2%	+23.30%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.2%	+23.25%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 2.4%	+23.10%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 3.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 4.5%	+22.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 3.6%	+21.85%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 4.1%	+21.40%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 4.9%	+20.60%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 4.9%	+20.55%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 6.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 6.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 6.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 8.5%	+18.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 8.9%	+16.60%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.1%	+6.80%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.2%	+6.70%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.2%	+6.65%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.4%	+6.50%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 3.6%	+5.25%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 3.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 4.1%	+4.80%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 8.5%	B 4.5%	+4.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 4.9%	+4.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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