Fed decisionEvery figure as of Sep 25, 5:31 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedSep 25, 5:31 PM ET

Live page updatedSep 25, 5:31 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/snapshot/2026-09-25T1731

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
Fed meeting odds (Kalshi) (CSV)

The Fed hikes on Oct. 28

64%

Last tradeStale

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (64.5%) and Polymarket (62.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 64%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25	direct contract			64.50¢	last trade	stale · 9590s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032	direct contract			62.50¢	last trade	fresh · 6s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 5:31 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-09-25	64.5%
2026-09-24	67.5%
2026-09-23	65.5%
2026-09-22	50.5%
2026-09-21	50.5%
2026-09-20	55.5%

The Fed holds on Oct. 28

36%

Last tradeStale

The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (35.5%) and Polymarket (36.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 36%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0	direct contract			35.50¢	last trade	stale · 9590s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031	direct contract			36.50¢	last trade	fresh · 98s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-09-25	35.5%
2026-09-24	33.5%
2026-09-23	34.0%
2026-09-22	47.5%
2026-09-21	49.5%
2026-09-20	44.5%

The Fed hikes on Dec. 9

71%

Last tradeStale

The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (70.5%) and Polymarket (70.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 71%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25	direct contract			70.50¢	last trade	stale · 9590s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636	direct contract			70.50¢	last trade	fresh · 176s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (117 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-09-25	70.5%
2026-09-24	70.5%
2026-09-23	69.5%
2026-09-22	66.5%
2026-09-21	66.5%
2026-09-20	66.5%

At least one more hike in 2026

91%

Last trade

The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (90.5%) and Polymarket (90.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about a 91% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31	direct contract			90.50¢	last trade	fresh · 254s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026	direct contract			90.50¢	last trade	fresh · 20s old	Contract ↗

October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market

64%

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFED-26OCT-T4.00	direct contract			63.50¢	last trade	stale · 9590s old	Contract ↗