Los Angeles Mayoral Race OddsNithya Raman leads Karen Bass, 57% to 43%

As of September 25, 2026, Nithya Raman leads the Los Angeles mayoral market on Polymarket. A Yes share on the city councilmember winning the election was priced at about 57.5¢, against 43.5¢ for incumbent Karen Bass. Raman’s displayed price was up roughly 19.5 cents over the preceding week, while Bass’s was down 19 cents. The shift comes as a September 15–20 Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll put Raman at 39%, Bass at 28% and 33% undecided among likely runoff voters. The poll is a reported survey result; it does not establish what caused traders to move their prices.

The next question is where those undecided voters go. According to that survey, 63% of voters who backed Spencer Pratt in the June primary had not picked either finalist. The November 3 runoff decides which of Bass and Raman becomes mayor; the City Clerk’s Election Division is the starting point for official election information. Early October mail ballots were expected according to the September 23 report, but an exact mailing date was not confirmed there.

What does today’s price cover?

The Polymarket Los Angeles mayoral election contract names the candidate who wins the 2026 election, not the winner of the June primary. Its Bass and Raman Yes shares are separate outcomes. At this September 25 snapshot, Raman led despite a substantial share of poll respondents remaining undecided. Prices are trades, not a vote count or a poll: the live board above may change long before this dated account is refreshed.

Do not assume the displayed price is the price of your next trade. Check each candidate’s bid and ask, available orders and fees; compare the same final-election outcome on each platform before treating a gap as a change in the race.

Why Raman leads, and what could change

The September poll gives Raman a lead among those who named a candidate, and her Yes price rose over the prior week. Those observations line up in direction, but neither proves the poll alone drove the market. Traders may also have responded to other campaign news or to orders in a thin book. The unresolved part of the story is the large undecided bloc: Bass can still compete for those voters, including people who backed Pratt in June.

Watch for another likely-voter poll with dates and a published methodology, especially one that shows whether those undecided voters have moved. Watch the campaigns as ballots go out and through the November 3 runoff: a shift in support for either finalist could move a contract on the eventual winner. No later poll or confirmed vote result is being asserted here.

How to read a move

At this September 25 check, Polymarket showed a Raman Yes bid near 57.4¢ and ask near 57.5¢; Bass’s bid was near 43¢ and ask near 44¢. Quotes can change quickly. If Raman’s price moves again, compare the time of the move with the release date of a new poll or a documented campaign event before giving the move a political explanation.

• Outcome: Is the contract on the November election winner, rather than the June primary?
• Evidence: Was a new poll or campaign development actually reported?
• Trading: How far apart are the current bid and ask, and how much is available to trade?
• Costs: What fees change the effective purchase or exit price?

The contest behind the prices

Bass is defending her record as mayor against Raman, a sitting City Council member. The June primary narrowed the field to these two; the September Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey suggests Raman is ahead among likely voters but leaves a third undecided. That combination helps explain why a market lead is not the same thing as a settled election. Housing, homelessness and city services give the campaigns concrete ground on which to argue for the remaining votes; a future poll could test whether those arguments have changed support.

A contract on the primary is a different question from a contract on the eventual mayor. Before comparing a Kalshi quote with Polymarket’s, read both named outcomes and rules. The presence of both feeds on this page does not establish that the contracts settle identically.

Can you trade on the Los Angeles mayoral election?

Seeing a Bass or Raman price does not mean you can trade it. Access depends on the platform, the contract and your location; check current account rules and restrictions first.

You can lose money even if the race seems clear. Prices can fall, an exit trade may be costly or unavailable, and a disputed result can delay settlement. Only trade where permitted and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Who decides the winner?

Los Angeles voters choose the mayor in the November 3 runoff. Polymarket’s published rules say its contract resolves to the candidate who wins the election, relying first on a consensus of credible reporting and, if the result is ambiguous, official information from the City of Los Angeles. The City Clerk’s Election Division says Los Angeles County conducts most city election functions. Do not assume Kalshi uses Polymarket’s sources or timing; its Los Angeles contract must be checked against its own rules before asserting how it pays.

What to watch next

As of September 25, Raman’s market lead and the September poll’s large undecided share are the two facts to hold together. Look for another dated, methodological runoff poll as voters receive ballots, then for the November 3 vote and reported results. A new poll showing whether Pratt’s former supporters choose Bass or Raman would be more informative for this contract than an isolated quote change. Check the live board for newer prices; this dated analysis should be refreshed when new evidence arrives.