World Cup Odds & Win Probability: Spain and France Lead Men's Tournament
Prediction markets have Spain as the World Cup favorite at +506 odds, or 16.5% implied probability. France trades at +523 (16.1%) and England at +822 (10.8%). Teams are wrapping warm-up friendlies before Mexico hosts South Africa in the June 11 opener. The weekend offered a few signals: Argentina beat Honduras 2-0 with Messi rested for muscle fatigue, Brazil edged Egypt 2-1 to close their prep amid uncertainty over Neymar's calf injury, and Scotland made a statement with a 4-0 win over Bolivia. The hosts had a mixed sendoff — the US fell 2-1 to Germany, while Canada drew Ireland 1-1. Our 2026 FIFA World Cup odds tracker aggregates live pricing from prediction markets, updated hourly.
Who Will Win the World Cup? Aggregated Odds & Predictions
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SPSpain
Vol $8.4M
Spread 1.5%
Agg
+506↑ +0.5%
G
+456
O
+456
K
+476
U
+481
P
+508
FRFrance
Vol $8.8M
Spread 1.9%
Agg
+523↓ -1.0%
G
+456
U
+462
O
+488
K
+523
P
+523
ENEngland
Vol $8.1M
Spread 1.2%
Agg
+822↓ -0.6%
O
+733
U
+762
G
+809
P
+822
K
+830
POPortugal
Vol $9.2M
Spread 1.6%
Agg
+848↑ +1.0%
U
+733
O
+809
P
+848
G
+852
K
+857
ARArgentina
Vol $7.4M
Spread 1.5%
Agg
+1,069↓ -0.4%
O
+900
U
+964
K
+1,056
P
+1,070
G
+1,076
BRBrazil
Vol $7.7M
Spread 0.6%
Agg
+1,084↑ +0.2%
O
+1,011
U
+1,036
G
+1,076
P
+1,083
K
+1,098
GEGermany
Vol $10.4M
Spread 1.8%
Agg
+1,800↓ -0.3%
O
+1,329
G
+1,438
U
+1,624
K
+1,702
P
+1,805
NENetherlands
Vol $8.3M
Spread 2.5%
Agg
+2,354↑ +0.1%
U
+1,438
G
+1,900
O
+1,900
K
+2,051
P
+2,369
NONorway
Vol $7.8M
Spread 0.5%
Agg
+3,982↓ -0.1%
O
+3,233
U
+3,746
K
+3,982
P
+3,982
BEBelgium
Vol $12.5M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+4,550↑ +0.2%
O
+3,233
K
+4,344
P
+4,551
U
+4,900
COColombia
Vol $13.9M
Spread 1.7%
Agg
+5,302↑ +0.1%
G
+2,757
O
+3,233
U
+4,900
K
+5,028
P
+5,305
JAJapan
Vol $8.3M
Spread 1.3%
Agg
+5,617— +0.0%
O
+3,233
U
+4,067
P
+5,614
K
+5,961
MOMorocco
Vol $9.8M
Spread 1.4%
Agg
+5,961↑ +0.1%
O
+3,233
K
+5,961
P
+5,961
U
+6,150
MEMexico
Vol $10.2M
Spread 1.7%
Agg
+7,202↑ +0.2%
O
+3,233
K
+5,614
U
+7,043
P
+7,307
USUSA
Vol $10.7M
Spread 1.8%
Agg
+8,348— +0.0%
G
+3,233
O
+3,233
K
+6,150
U
+6,150
P
+8,596
TUTurkey
Vol $71.8K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
+8,596↑ +0.2%
K
+8,596
U
+9,900
SWSwitzerland
Vol $9.4M
Spread 1.1%
Agg
+8,638↑ +0.2%
O
+4,900
P
+8,596
U
+8,991
K
+10,426
URUruguay
Vol $11.0M
Spread 1.1%
Agg
+9,425↓ -0.1%
O
+4,900
P
+9,424
U
+9,900
K
+10,426
CRCroatia
Vol $9.9M
Spread 1.1%
Agg
+10,426↑ +0.1%
O
+4,900
U
+9,900
K
+10,426
P
+10,426
ECEcuador
Vol $10.6M
Spread 1.2%
Agg
+11,665— +0.0%
O
+4,900
U
+11,011
K
+11,665
P
+11,665
SESenegal
Vol $11.4M
Spread 1.4%
Agg
+13,233↑ +0.1%
O
+4,900
K
+13,233
P
+13,233
U
+16,567
AUAustria
Vol $11.2M
Spread 0.6%
Agg
+22,122↓ -0.1%
O
+9,900
U
+19,900
K
+22,122
P
+22,122
ICIvory Coast
Vol $12.4M
Spread 0.7%
Agg
+22,127↑ +0.1%
O
+9,900
P
+22,122
K
+28,471
U
+33,233
CACanada
Vol $12.6M
Spread 0.7%
Agg
+28,471— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+19,900
K
+28,471
P
+28,471
SWSweden
Vol $94.8K
Spread 0.7%
Agg
+28,471↓ -0.2%
O
+9,900
U
+19,900
K
+28,471
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
+33,233↓ -0.1%
U
+33,233
EGEgypt
Vol $20.4M
Spread 0.9%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
P
+39,900
U
+49,900
K
+66,567
SCScotland
Vol $6.9M
Spread 0.8%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+14,186
K
+39,900
P
+39,900
SKSouth Korea
Vol $12.1M
Spread 0.8%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+33,233
K
+39,900
P
+39,900
DCDR Congo
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
+49,900↓ -0.3%
U
+49,900
PAParaguay
Vol $10.2M
Spread 0.9%
Agg
+65,603↓ -0.1%
O
+9,900
U
+24,900
K
+39,900
P
+66,567
ALAlgeria
Vol $13.7M
Spread 0.9%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+49,900
K
+66,567
P
+66,567
AUAustralia
Vol $4.6M
Spread 0.9%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+9,900
K
+66,567
P
+66,567
U
+99,900
GHGhana
Vol $7.9M
Spread 0.9%
Agg
+66,567↓ -0.1%
O
+9,900
U
+49,900
K
+66,567
P
+66,567
IRIran
Vol $9.9M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+70,174— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+49,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
CZCzechia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
+99,900↓ -0.3%
U
+99,900
IRIraq
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
+99,900↓ -0.5%
U
+99,900
CVCape Verde
Vol $1.6M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
CUCuracao
Vol $1.1M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
HAHaiti
Vol $1.2M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+49,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
JOJordan
Vol $1.0M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
NZNew Zealand
Vol $554.3K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
PAPanama
Vol $286
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900↓ -0.1%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
QAQatar
Vol $1.4M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $4.2M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
SASouth Africa
Vol $3.5M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
TUTunisia
Vol $5.2M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+9,900
U
+99,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
UZUzbekistan
Vol $4.3M
Spread 2.5%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
G
+3,900
O
+9,900
U
+49,900
K
+199,900
P
+199,900
DEDenmark
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
IRIreland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
ITItaly
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
P
—
NINorthern Ireland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
POPoland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
RORomania
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
UKUkraine
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
WAWales
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
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World Cup Odds: Group vs. Rounds vs. Winner at Kalshi & Polymarket
Latest odds for Kalshi vs. Polymarket (updated every 6 hours)
Last updated: June 10, 2026 at 7:36 AM PDT
| Team | Group | Win Group (Kalshi) | Win Group (Poly) | Reach R32 (Poly) | Reach R16 (Kalshi) | Win Cup (Kalshi) | Win Cup (Poly) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | A | 57.50% | 57.50% | 92.50% | 56.50% | 1.65% | 1.35% |
| South Korea | A | 0.205 | 0.21 | 69.50% | 28.50% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| Czechia | A | 18.50% | 17.50% | 69.50% | 28.50% | 0.50% | 0.0025 |
| South Africa | A | 0.055 | 0.0635 | 38.00% | 9.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Switzerland | B | 54.50% | 56.50% | 93.65% | 59.50% | 0.95% | 1.15% |
| Canada | B | 32.50% | 30.50% | 85.50% | 44.50% | 0.35% | 0.35% |
| Bosnia and Herz | B | 0.125 | 12.50% | 65.50% | 24.00% | 0.50% | 0.0015 |
| Qatar | B | 0.025 | 0.0255 | 21.50% | 3.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Brazil | C | 70.50% | 71.50% | 97.60% | 69.50% | 8.35% | 8.45% |
| Morocco | C | 20.50% | 20.50% | 86.50% | 41.50% | 1.60% | 1.75% |
| Scotland | C | 0.085 | 8.25% | 68.50% | 24.50% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| Haiti | C | 0.005 | 0.70% | 12.50% | 3.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| USA | D | 39.50% | 38.50% | 83.50% | 47.50% | 1.60% | 1.15% |
| Turkiye | D | 35.50% | 35.50% | 79.50% | 46.50% | 1.15% | 0.0115 |
| Paraguay | D | 17.50% | 0.175 | 64.50% | 28.50% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| Australia | D | 9.50% | 0.0945 | 47.50% | 16.50% | 0.15% | 0.15% |
| Germany | E | 66.50% | 67.50% | 96.20% | 69.00% | 5.75% | 5.25% |
| Ecuador | E | 22.50% | 0.215 | 88.50% | 41.50% | 0.85% | 0.85% |
| Ivory Coast | E | 12.50% | 12.55% | 80.00% | 31.50% | 0.35% | 0.45% |
| Curacao | E | 0.005 | 0.0055 | 7.50% | 0.015 | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Netherlands | F | 53.50% | 53.50% | 89.50% | 55.50% | 4.65% | 4.05% |
| Japan | F | 26.50% | 27.50% | 78.50% | 38.50% | 1.65% | 1.75% |
| Sweden | F | 0.155 | 0.155 | 61.50% | 21.00% | 0.35% | 0.0035 |
| Tunisia | F | 0.055 | 0.0605 | 38.50% | 9.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Belgium | G | 67.50% | 69.50% | 95.75% | 61.50% | 2.25% | 2.15% |
| Egypt | G | 17.50% | 16.50% | 72.50% | 28.50% | 0.15% | 0.25% |
| Iran | G | 0.115 | 0.123 | 61.90% | 20.00% | 0.05% | 0.15% |
| New Zealand | G | 0.035 | 0.0355 | 31.50% | 6.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Spain | H | 78.50% | 78.50% | 98.45% | 77.50% | 17.40% | 16.35% |
| Uruguay | H | 19.50% | 20.50% | 86.50% | 38.50% | 0.95% | 1.05% |
| Saudi Arabia | H | 0.015 | 0.021 | 36.50% | 8.00% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Cape Verde | H | 0.015 | 0.0085 | 30.50% | 6.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| France | I | 63.50% | 65.50% | 97.15% | 78.50% | 16.20% | 16.05% |
| Norway | I | 25.50% | 23.50% | 85.50% | 53.50% | 2.45% | 2.45% |
| Senegal | I | 0.105 | 11.50% | 71.00% | 32.50% | 0.75% | 0.65% |
| Iraq | I | 0.005 | 0.007 | 14.50% | 2.50% | 0.50% | 0.0005 |
| Argentina | J | 71.50% | 71.50% | 96.05% | 67.50% | 8.65% | 8.55% |
| Austria | J | 18.50% | 0.185 | 80.50% | 27.50% | 0.45% | 0.45% |
| Algeria | J | 9.50% | 0.0965 | 65.50% | 20.50% | 0.15% | 0.15% |
| Jordan | J | 1.50% | 0.0165 | 19.50% | 3.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| Portugal | K | 61.50% | 62.50% | 96.30% | 70.50% | 10.65% | 10.95% |
| Colombia | K | 32.50% | 32.50% | 89.50% | 53.50% | 1.95% | 1.95% |
| DR Congo | K | 0.035 | 0.0425 | 42.50% | 10.00% | 0.50% | 0.0015 |
| Uzbekistan | K | 0.025 | 0.0235 | 33.50% | 6.50% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| England | L | 68.50% | 68.50% | 96.05% | 74.50% | 10.75% | 10.85% |
| Croatia | L | 22.50% | 22.50% | 81.50% | 40.50% | 0.95% | 0.95% |
| Ghana | L | 0.055 | 0.057 | 48.50% | 14.50% | 0.15% | 0.15% |
| Panama | L | 0.035 | 0.0285 | 36.50% | 9.00% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
Martin Green
Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin...
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
World Cup predictions: France and Spain lead as co-favorites to win
World Cup prediction markets have expanded significantly in recent weeks. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have added new contract types, and several teams saw notable price movement in the outright winner market. Here’s what changed since last week and events that likely impacted market turnover.
Spain is the new World Cup favorite. Spain has emerged as the new World Cup favorite after moving ahead of France. La Roja began 2026 as the favorites to lift the trophy, but France moved into the lead after beating Brazil and Colombia in March. However, France then lost 2-1 to Ivory Coast in a friendly on June 4, which has seemingly spooked traders. Both Spain and France are priced at 16.2% to win the World Cup with Polymarket, but Kalshi has Spain as the 16.5% favorite.
USMNT plays well in narrow loss to Germany. The USA was a little unfortunate to lose 2-1 to Germany in a friendly at the weekend. It was an even game, as the USMNT had 51% of the possession and created a few excellent chances. German forward Kai Havertz opened the scoring inside two minutes, but Antonee Robinson equalized for the USA. A draw would have been a fair result, but Leroy Sané’s second-half strike secured the win for Germany.
Kalshi launches third-place finisher market. You can now predict which World Cup contender will finish third at Kalshi. It’s a slightly unusual market, as you need to guess which team will lose in the semifinals, before winning the third-place playoff game, but more than $18,000 has been traded. Spain is the 17% favorite, ahead of France (16%) and England (10%).
New goalscorer prop markets at Kalshi. You’ll also find lots of new goalscorer prop markets at Kalshi. For example, you can predict the top-scoring player for each team. Christian Pulisic is the slight favorite for the USMNT, ahead of Folarin Balogun, while Raúl Jiménez leads the way for Mexico. Kalshi has also launched markets on the total hat-tricks (three goals scored by a player during a single game) that will be scored at the World Cup. There are loads more new markets too, including how many Round of 32 games will go to penalties and whether a team from outside the top 10 in the FIFA world rankings will reach the semifinals.
World Cup Odds on USA, Canada, and Mexico: Which Co-Host Will Go the Furthest?
World Cup co-hosts Mexico, Canada, and the USA will all begin their group stage campaigns this week. The tournament gets underway with an intriguing clash between Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City on Thursday. Canada will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto on Friday, before the USMNT takes on Paraguay in Los Angeles later […]
World Cup Group Favorites Ahead of Thursday’s Big Kickoff
The World Cup group stage will begin when Mexico and South Africa clash at Estadio Azteca on Thursday afternoon. Soccer fans can then look forward to 72 games in just 17 action-packed days, before the group stage finally concludes on June 27. FIFA has divided the 48 World Cup contenders into 12 groups. Each team […]
Kalshi Sets $17.9B Record May as World Cup Lifts Polymarket US to Weekly High
Kalshi closed May with $17.91 billion in notional volume, its ninth consecutive monthly record and a 21% jump from April’s then-record $14.81B, according to DeFi Rate’s prediction markets volume tracker. Polymarket posted $7.08 billion in the same month, representing a 21% decline from its $10.57B March peak and its lowest monthly total since January. The […]
Kalshi $1 Million World Cup Contest: Predict 2026 World Cup Winner + Tickets to Finals
Kalshi has launched a free-to-play contest with a $1,000,000 prize pool, shared among eligible entrants who correctly predict the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion
Robinhood Launches World Cup Prediction Markets Through Rothera
Robinhood is using the tournament to test its affiliated Rothera exchange, but some World Cup contracts will still route through Kalshi.
Forecast: World Cup Prediction Market Volume Could Hit $2.5 Billion in the US
Prediction markets could drive as much as $2.5 billion in trading activity on the 2026 World Cup, with $1.47-1.93 billion trading on Kalshi. The current World Cup Winner contract is trending higher than March Madness and will likely reach ~$253 million in volume by the end of the tournament.
France’s odds to win
France is now the joint-favorite to win the World Cup. Les Bleus are priced at 16.2% with Polymarket and Kalshi. They were trading above 18% a couple of weeks ago, but traders were spooked by their 2-1 defeat to Ivory Coast in a friendly on June 4. That saw them fall from No. 1 to No. 3 in the FIFA world rankings.
On a brighter note, key players like Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé are in fine form. Mbappé was the top scorer in La Liga and the Champions League for the 2025/26 season, and he has the quality to put any team in the world to the sword. Michael Olise continues to perform well at club level for Bayern Munich, as does Desiré Doué at PSG.
Les Bleus won the World Cup in 2018 and finished runners-up in 2022 after losing to Argentina on penalties, so the pedigree is there. The supporting cast looks strong, with Doué emerging alongside Olise, although Les Bleus are sweating on the fitness of star defender William Saliba, who was injured in the Champions League final on May 30. Les Bleus were outplayed by Spain at Euro 2024, but their sheer power and physicality should give them an excellent chance of success this summer.
View: France’s odds to win Group I
Spain’s odds to win the World Cup
Spain is neck-and-neck with France in the World Cup winner markets. La Roja’s aggregated probability stands at 16.2%, leaving them level with France in traders’ estimations. They could only draw 1-1 with Iraq in a friendly last week, but that result extended their unbeaten streak to 34 games.
La Roja still have a world-class midfield featuring Rodri and Pedri, while the defense is strong too. They also drew a favorable group, and they have a pretty clear path to the World Cup semifinals. However, they could then face France in the final four, which would be a blockbuster clash.
The biggest concern for Spain is the health of star winger Lamine Yamal. He injured his hamstring while playing for Barcelona on April 22, and he hasn’t played since then. However, manager Luis de la Fuente expects him to recover in time for the World Cup, although it remains to be seen if he’ll be in peak physical condition.
View: Spain’s odds to win Group H
England’s odds to win
England sits third after a few disappointing performances. The Three Lions drew 1-1 with Uruguay and then lost 1-0 to Japan in a pair of friendlies at the end of March, before scraping a narrow 1-0 victory over New Zealand in June. All three performances underscored England’s reliance on captain Harry Kane. He missed the games against Uruguay and Japan, and the team looked toothless in attack, and he then scored the only goal in the 1-0 win against New Zealand. The Three Lions are now trading at 11.1% with Polymarket and 10.2% with Kalshi, which is a significant spread. Traders may be pricing in the possibility of England falling apart if Kane suffers an injury.
England suffered a series of heartbreaking defeats at major tournaments under Gareth Southgate, finishing runners-up at the last two European Championships and losing to France in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals. Thomas Tuchel replaced Southgate as England manager in January 2025, and he has a 100% winning record in competitive matches so far. Tuchel, who signed a contract extension in February, previously won the Champions League with Chelsea, and he’s regarded as an astute tactician. The defense is their Achilles’ heel, but England’s midfield is superb, and Kane is arguably the world’s greatest goalscorer.
Portugal odds to win
Portugal has overtaken Brazil and Argentina in traders’ estimations. Roberto Martínez’s men are now the fourth most likely team to win the World Cup, according to both Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s largely down to the form of their key players in recent weeks. Bruno Fernandes just broke the Premier League assists record for a single season, surpassing Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne. Bernardo Silva has been superb for Man City, while Vitinha and João Neves continue to dominate games for PSG.
Yet Portugal’s chances still rest on the shoulders of 41-year-old striker Cristiano Ronaldo. Martínez has made it clear that Ronaldo is a guaranteed starter, but it remains to be seen if he can roll back the years and fire Portugal to glory. He flopped at the last World Cup, but Ronaldo has 13 goals in his last 14 games for Portugal, and it will be hard for anyone to stop this team if he’s on song.
Argentina’s odds to win
Argentina is the now the fifth most likely team to win the World Cup. Traders grew more bearish on La Albiceleste’s chances of defending the title they won four years ago following a limp performance in a friendly against Mauritania in March. Argentina won 2-1, but they looked sloppy in defense, and they lacked cutting edge in attack. They then beat Zambia 5-0 a few days later, but traders were unconvinced.
However, La Albiceleste moved up to No. 1 in the FIFA world rankings after beating Honduras 2-0 in June. That win saw them leapfrog France and Spain in the rankings. Kalshi and Polymarket now both give Argentina a 8.9% chance of winning the World Cup. Star player Lionel Messi was rested for the 2-0 victory over Honduras, but he’s expected to be fit for this tournament. Argentina’s supporting cast is strong too, featuring the likes of Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, and Alexis Mac Allister.
Brazil’s odds to win
Brazil has emerged as the sixth most likely team to lift the trophy after steadily gaining momentum in recent weeks. Manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a star-studded squad at his disposal, led by the magnificent Vinícius Júnior. A defense featuring Gabriel Magalhaẽes and Marquinhos also looks rock-solid, and Alisson Becker is an excellent goalkeeper, so there are very few weaknesses in the team.
However, Brazil has underperformed at the last few World Cups, and the Seleçao could only finish fifth in the South American World Cup qualifying group, with six defeats from 18 games. They now have an elite manager in Ancelotti, but it will be difficult for the Samba Boys to win their first World Cup since 2002, so they’re priced at 7.8% with Kalshi and 8.4% with Polymarket.
Host nations: odds on North America
The USA, Canada, and Mexico are the co-hosts of this tournament, so all three teams qualified automatically. We’ve assessed their key strengths and weaknesses.
USA’s odds to win
The USMNT trades at 1.5% on Kalshi and 1.2% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright — long odds, and growing even longer in recent months, but the group winner market tells a more interesting story. The USA is priced at 40% with Kalshi to win Group D, down from 48% a month ago. This downgrade follows a couple of disappointing performances in March. The USMNT lost 5-2 to Belgium and 2-0 to Portugal in a pair of friendlies, although they roared back to form with a 3-2 win against Senegal at the end of May. They lost 2-1 to Germany in early June, but they played well against a genuine European heavyweight in that game, which is encouraging.
Yet the USA is still the favorite to win the group, ahead of Turkey (36%). That’s where the real action is for U.S. bettors right now. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, and Tyler Adams have proven themselves in Europe’s top leagues, and Ricardo Pepi has been prolific at PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie, giving the team a strong spine.
The USMNT haven’t made it past the World Cup quarterfinals in the modern era, so the outright price reflects that ceiling. However, they have a talented manager in Mauricio Pochettino, and home advantage could give them an edge — this is the first World Cup held in a fully regulated U.S. prediction market environment, so expect domestic volume on the USMNT to surge as the tournament approaches.
View: USA’s odds to win Group D
Mexico’s odds to win
Mexico trades at 1.7% on Kalshi and 1.6% on Polymarket to win the World Cup, putting them behind the major European favorites and the South American heavyweights in the outright market. El Tri have a strong, experienced team led by Edson Álvarez, César Montes, and Raúl Jiménez, and they should thrive in the humid conditions with home fans behind them. It’s also worth noting that Mexico played far better than the USMNT in March. They drew 0-0 with Portugal and 1-1 with Belgium, whereas both of those teams comfortably beat the USA. Mexico then beat Ghana 2-0 and Australia 1-0 in May, extending its unbeaten streak to seven games.
El Tri tend to reach the knockout stage of the World Cup, but they rarely make it past the Round of 16 — and the market reflects that historical ceiling. The group stage market may offer better value than the outright, as Mexico should be competitive against South Korea, South Africa, and Czechia.
View: Mexico’s odds to win Group A
Canada’s odds to win
Canada is the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The outright odds are steep, but Canada’s trajectory has been impressive — they finished top of the North American World Cup qualifying group in 2022, ahead of Mexico and the USMNT, and reached the semifinals of Copa América in 2024.
The group stage qualification market is where bettors should focus, as the Canucks have a realistic path through a group with Switzerland, Qatar, and a playoff qualifier. Key players like Jonathan David and Tajon Buchanan need to stay healthy though, as the squad lacks depth beyond its starting XI. David scored twice in an underwhelming 2-2 friendly draw with Iceland in March. The biggest question mark is captain Alphonso Davies, who has struggled with injuries this season. He missed several months with a torn ACL, and he then sustained a hamstring injury in March, followed by another hamstring injury in May, so the team will be sweating on his fitness.
View:Canada’s odds to win Group B
Odds by group
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |
World Cup prediction markets
The top prediction sites are already offering a wide range of World Cup markets. They will continue to add extra markets as the tournament approaches. These are the main options to consider right now:
Tournament winner
This is the main World Cup futures market. Kalshi lists it as “Men’s World Cup winner?” and Polymarket calls it “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” — same underlying question, different naming conventions. The market has already generated more than $4.0M in combined volume. You simply predict which team will win the World Cup by buying yes/no contracts on any team, including those that still need to navigate the playoffs.
If you think a team will win the World Cup, buy “yes” contracts. If not, you can buy “no” contracts. You’ll also be able to sell your contracts before they settle. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit if the market moves in your favor.
Qualify for a certain stage
This could be a much safer option than picking the World Cup winner. Instead, you can bet on a team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. For example, you might opt for the USA to reach the Round of 16, England to reach the quarterfinals, or Spain to reach the semifinals.
It will be a ferociously competitive tournament, featuring the world’s best teams, so it can be hard to predict the overall winner. It’s often far safer to map out a team’s path to a specific stage. Kalshi is offering contracts on whether teams will reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final.
Group winner
The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams. That’s a 50% increase on the 32 teams that contested the last World Cup four years ago. They’ve been split into 12 groups, and each group features four teams.
You can predict the winner of each group. Some groups have a heavy favorite, like Spain in Group H, Argentina in Group L, and Brazil in Group C. Others are much tighter. For example, the USMNT is the favorite in Group D, but the market gives them just a 51% chance of success.
Group qualifiers
The top two teams in each group will qualify for the knockout stage, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The other two teams will pack their bags and head home. You can buy yes/no contracts on whether each team will qualify from their groups.
It’s not really worth buying “yes” contracts on heavy favorites like Spain, France, Argentina, England, and Brazil, as the upside is too low. Instead, it’s best to dig a little deeper and try to find teams that could upset their more established rivals. For example, African champions Senegal may be capable of causing an upset against Norway in Group I, while the battle between Ecuador and Ivory Coast in Group E looks fascinating.
Golden Boot
The Golden Boot is awarded to the top goalscorer at the World Cup. You need to consider which teams are likely to make the latter stages of the tournament when making predictions on this market.
Kylian Mbappé won it in 2022 after France reached the final, while Harry Kane claimed the Golden Boot in 2018 following England’s run to the semifinals. They’re the top two contenders this year, followed by Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Luis Díaz, Erling Haaland, and Cristiano Ronaldo. One dark horse to watch is Germany’s Julián Álvarez, who signed for Atlético Madrid for a club-record fee and has hit the ground running in La Liga. Kalshi lists this market as “FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner.”
World Cup props and special markets
Both platforms offer World Cup prop contracts beyond the standard outright and group markets. These are the live props available right now:
- “Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, currently trading at 93% yes with $16K in volume. The 39-year-old hasn’t officially confirmed whether he’ll suit up for Argentina, making this one of the most actively debated World Cup props. You can also predict whether Cristiano Ronaldo (97%) and Lamine Yamal (95%) will play.
- “Messi vs Ronaldo” World Cup goal contributions” — Available on Polymarket, allowing you to speculate on whether Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo will have the most goal contributions (goals and assists). Messi is the 53% favorite.
- “Which continent will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, with Europe priced at 67% and $5.1K in volume. It’s also live on Kalshi, where Europe is priced at 64%. Given that four of the top five favorites are European, this contract offers a way to bet on the broader trend rather than picking a single team.
- “Will There be a Winless Team?” – Available on Polymarket, with a 98% chance of there being a winless team. You can also predict whether there will be an unbeaten champion, with “yes” currently priced at 75% on Polymarket.
- “Lowest Scoring Group” – Available on Kalshi, with Group B the 14% favorite. That group features Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar.
- “Highest Scoring Group” – Available on Kalshi, with Group H the 14% favorite. That group includes Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia. Group I, which features France, Senegal, Iraq, and Norway, is another leading contender.
- “Will Iran Participate?” Iran is priced at 90% with Kalshi to participate in the World Cup. The team qualified for the tournament, but ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have cast doubt on their participation.
Kalshi offers two off-the-field World Cup props worth watching:
- “Who will sing the next World Cup song?” — Available on Kalshi. FIFA debuted its first official anthem, “Desire” by Robbie Williams and Laura Pausini, at the 2025 Club World Cup, and this contract lets traders predict the artist behind the next World Cup song.
- “Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup this year?” — Available on Kalshi. The U.S. travel ban has restricted fans from Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal from attending matches, and geopolitical tensions around tariffs have raised questions about whether any European nation could withdraw. This contract captures that uncertainty.
Expect both platforms to add more props as the tournament approaches, particularly around player-specific markets and match-level props.
Markets on specific World Cup matches
Kalshi has already released markets on the first round of group stage games. Right now, you’ll only find contracts on the result of each game. There are three options: Team A to win, a tie, or Team B to win. As always, you can buy “yes” contracts if you think a team will win their opening World Cup match.
Prediction sites will release more markets closer to kick-off. These are the main markets to look out for:
- Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can predict which team will cover the spread. For example, you might find Argentina -1.5 against Algeria. If you expect Argentina to win by a margin of at least 2 goals, buy “yes” contracts on Argentina. If you think Algeria will win, tie, or lose by a single goal, buy “yes” on Algeria.
- Total goals: A simple yes/no contract on whether both teams will combine for a certain number of goals. For instance, the line might be set at 2.5 goals. If you expect at least 3 goals in the game, buy “yes.” If not, buy “no.”
- Both teams to score: Another straightforward yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net.
- Goalscorer: You can predict whether a specific player will score during the match too. Once again, just make a yes/no prediction.
These markets are settled at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus any injury-time). They don’t include extra-time or penalties when it comes to knockout stage games.
DeFi Rate free World Cup bracket challenge 2026
The 2026 World Cup is the largest in tournament history. 48 nations across 12 groups, with the top two from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advancing to a 32-team knockout round. DeFi Rate’s World Cup bracket challenge covers every match from the group stage all the way through the final. Make your group-stage picks, select which eight third-place teams advance, then build your knockout bracket to the champion. Scores update live as each result comes in, your bracket adjusts automatically, and you can edit your picks until each stage locks. Compete on the public leaderboard, start a private pool for friends, family, or your office, or do both. Free to play, no account or download required. Just make your picks and see where you land as it all plays out.
Where to trade or bet World Cup
You’ll find lots of World Cup markets on the leading prediction sites. These are the top five to consider:
Kalshi: This app is available nationwide, and it offers deeper liquidity than rival prediction sites. It’s typically easy to open contracts and exit positions on popular markets like World Cup games. The fees are competitive (much lower than the juice charged by sportsbooks), and the platform is accessible. There are lots of World Cup markets too.
Polymarket: Another established prediction site, which operates on a nationwide basis. It’s a major rival to Kalshi, with a very similar user interface. The spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket can be significant, so it’s worth checking both sites before making your predictions. Polymarket has a different fee structure too, so it’s often cheaper to use this site.
DraftKings: The Boston-based gambling giant recently expanded into prediction markets after buying regulated site Railbird. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions isn’t available nationwide, but the site launched in 38 states. There are no World Cup markets yet, but we expect them to appear in the build-up to the tournament.
Fanatics: The Florida-based retailer has expanded into sports betting and casino gaming in recent years, and it has now jumped on the prediction markets bandwagon. Fanatics Markets launched in 24 states in December 2025, and it could expand as the World Cup approaches.
Underdog: The company teamed up with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets in 2025. Underdog Predict doesn’t offer the same sort of liquidity that you’ll find at Kalshi, but it’s another platform that’s gaining momentum, so it could emerge as a credible rival by the time the World Cup kicks off.
World Cup resolution criteria
Understanding the resolution criteria is the most important part of trading on prediction markets. Here’s how World Cup contracts will settle, and what you need to know before placing a trade. Learn more about how Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts.
Settlement date: The main tournament winner market will be settled on July 20, 2026. That’s one day after the final.
Resolution source: Prediction sites will use FIFA as the primary source for resolving contracts, with credible reporting as backup. Kalshi uses FIFA and ESPN, while Polymarket states: “The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
How elimination works in contracts: If a team is eliminated (knocked out in the group stage or a knockout round), the contract resolves to “no” immediately. This is the case at Kalshi and Polymarket.
Cancellation/postponement clause: Per Polymarket, if the World Cup is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “other.”
Extra time / penalties: The tournament winner is the team that lifts the trophy, regardless of how the final is decided (regulation, extra-time, or penalties). However, markets on individual matches are settled at the end of regulation time (not including extra-time or penalties).
48-team format implications: The top two from each of 12 groups will advance to round of 32, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The tournament will then follow a single-elimination knockout format through to the final.