2026 World Cup Odds (Winner) Predictions

Weekly FIFA World Cup predictions recap

World Cup prediction markets expanded significantly over the past two weeks. Both platforms added new contract types, and several teams saw notable price movement in the outright winner market. Here’s what changed since last week and events that likely impacted market turnover.

New market to watch. Polymarket listed “World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?” on Saturday night, trading at 14% yes. Cartel violence erupted across western Mexico on February 22 following a military operation near Guadalajara. Guadalajara is one of the three Mexican host cities, scheduled to stage four World Cup matches. FIFA is reportedly concerned about Guadalajara’s readiness, and under the 2026 World Cup regulations, it has the right to relocate matches due to safety or security concerns. The contract resolves yes if any Mexico-hosted match is officially moved before June 10.

Biggest movers on the outright board. Argentina is the week’s clear momentum leader, climbing from 9.5% to 10.7% probability to win the World Cup (+1.2%). Three things drove the move in the news cycle:

• Messi back on the pitch. Messi returned for Inter Miami’s MLS opener on February 21 after a preseason hamstring scare, the most concrete step yet toward confirming his World Cup availability.
• Di Maria comeback reports. Reports surfaced mid-week that Argentina’s coaching staff is actively working to convince Angel Di Maria to come out of international retirement — a proven tournament performer who has scored 10 goals in 22 matches since returning to domestic play at Rosario Central.
• Lautaro Martínez injury update. Lautaro Martínez suffered a calf injury during Inter’s Champions League loss to Bodo/Glimt, with reports suggesting up to a month on the sidelines. However, Argentine media expect him to be fit in time for the Finalissima on March 27, keeping the door open for the World Cup.

Which country is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?

Spain is the favorite to win the World Cup after storming to the top of the FIFA world rankings. La Roja face competition from elite European and South American rivals, while co-hosts USA, Mexico, and Canada are also bidding to cause an upset. The majority of World Cup outright volume is currently flowing through Polymarket — Argentina’s $77.1K in Polymarket volume dwarfs its $118 on Kalshi, and the pattern holds across every team on the board. That’s likely to shift as Kalshi winds down from March Madness and ramps up its World Cup coverage in the months ahead.

Spain’s odds to win the World Cup

Spain sits firmly at the top of the outright market. Spain’s VWAP currently sits at 15.4%, with a 3.2% spread between Kalshi (18.5%) and Polymarket (15.4%). That’s the widest spread on the odds board — Kalshi is notably more bullish on Spain than Polymarket.

They have a world-class midfield featuring Rodri, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri, and Fabián Ruiz, while Lamine Yamal is a sensational winger. The Spaniards also drew a favorable group and have a pretty clear path to the World Cup semifinals, which is part of why the market gives them roughly 2-3% more implied probability than second-choice England.

The biggest concern heading into the summer is squad health. Striker Samu Aghehowa has been ruled out of the World Cup after tearing his ACL in February, and several other key players — including Carvajal and Fabián Ruiz — are managing injuries ahead of the Finalissima against Argentina on March 27. Rodri is back on the pitch and Yamal is in top form, but Guardiola admitted on February 21 that Rodri was brought back too early from his ACL injury, and the midfielder is still working his way back to his best. The depth of the injury list could test Spain’s squad depth at a tournament that demands eight matches to lift the trophy.

View: Spain’s odds to win Group H

England’s odds to win

England is the second most likely team to win the World Cup according to prediction markets, trading at 13.2% implied probability to win. Polymarket prices England at 13.3% while Kalshi has them at 12.5% — one of the few teams where Polymarket is more bullish. England has attracted $22.2K in volume this week.

The Three Lions suffered a series of heartbreaking defeats at major tournaments under Gareth Southgate, finishing runners-up at the last two European Championships and losing to France in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals. Southgate has now left, and England brought in Thomas Tuchel to replace him. Tuchel won the Champions League with Chelsea in 2021, so the market may be pricing in the coaching upgrade. The defense is their Achilles’ heel, but England’s midfield is superb, and Harry Kane is arguably the world’s greatest goalscorer.

France’s odds to win

France sits third at 11.1% VWAP, and the two major platforms are in near-perfect agreement — Kalshi has Les Bleus at 11.5% and Polymarket at 11.1%, a spread of just 0.5%. France has continued to drift, though: they were at 12.3% two weeks ago and 11.5% last week, so the slide has been steady even as Mbappé and Olise continue to perform well at club level. Dembélé has been effective when available but hamstring and calf injuries have limited him to just 14 Ligue 1 appearances this season. The $61.8K in volume shows strong liquidity and active trader interest despite the declining price.

Les Bleus won the World Cup in 2018 and finished runners-up in 2022 after losing to Argentina on penalties, so the pedigree is there. The supporting cast looks strong, with Desiré Doué emerging alongside Olise, while William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano are solid in defense. Les Bleus were outplayed by Spain at Euro 2024, which may explain why the market keeps a clear gap between the two, but their sheer power and physicality should give them an excellent chance of success this summer.

View: France’s odds to win Group I

Host nations: odds on North America

The USA, Canada, and Mexico are the co-hosts of this tournament, so all three teams qualified automatically. We’ve assessed their key strengths and weaknesses.

USA’s odds to win

The USMNT trades at 2.5% on Kalshi and 1.7% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright — long odds, but the group winner market tells a more interesting story. The USA has climbed from 45% to 51% at Kalshi to win Group D, making them narrow favorites over Paraguay and Australia. That’s where the real action is for U.S. bettors right now. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, and Tyler Adams have proven themselves in Europe’s top leagues, and Ricardo Pepi has been prolific at PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie, giving the team a strong spine.

The USMNT haven’t made it past the World Cup quarterfinals in the modern era, so the outright price reflects that ceiling. However, they have a talented manager in Mauricio Pochettino, and home advantage could give them an edge — this is the first World Cup held in a fully regulated U.S. prediction market environment, so expect domestic volume on the USMNT to surge as the tournament approaches.

View: USA’s odds to win Group D

Mexico’s odds to win

Mexico trades at 1.5% on Kalshi and 1.1% on Polymarket to win the World Cup, putting them behind all three European favorites and the other two co-hosts in the outright market. El Tri have a strong, experienced team led by Edson Álvarez, César Montes, and Raúl Jiménez, and they should thrive in the humid conditions with home fans behind them.

El Tri tend to reach the knockout stage of the World Cup, but they rarely make it past the Round of 16 — and the market reflects that historical ceiling. The group stage market may offer better value than the outright, as Mexico should be competitive against South Korea, South Africa, and a European playoff qualifier.

View: Mexico’s odds to win Group A

Canada’s odds to win

Canada is the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The outright odds are steep, but Canada’s trajectory has been impressive — they finished top of the North American World Cup qualifying group in 2022, ahead of Mexico and the USMNT, and reached the semifinals of Copa América in 2024.

The group stage qualification market is where bettors should focus, as the Canucks have a realistic path through a group with Switzerland, Qatar, and a playoff qualifier. Key players like Jonathan David and Tajon Buchanan need to stay healthy though, as the squad lacks depth beyond its starting XI. The biggest question mark is Alphonso Davies, who has been sidelined all season with a torn ACL and is racing to be fit in time for the tournament.

View: Canada’s odds to win Group G

World Cup prediction markets

The top prediction sites are already offering a wide range of World Cup markets. They will continue to add extra markets as the tournament approaches. These are the main options to consider right now:

Tournament winner

This is the main World Cup futures market. Kalshi lists it as “Men’s World Cup winner?” and Polymarket calls it “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” — same underlying question, different naming conventions. The market has already generated more than $4.0M in combined volume. You simply predict which team will win the World Cup by buying yes/no contracts on any team, including those that still need to navigate the playoffs.

If you think a team will win the World Cup, buy “yes” contracts. If not, you can buy “no” contracts. You’ll also be able to sell your contracts before they settle. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit if the market moves in your favor.

Qualify for a certain stage

This could be a much safer option than picking the World Cup winner. Instead, you can bet on a team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. For example, you might opt for the USA to reach the Round of 16, England to reach the quarterfinals, or Spain to reach the semifinals.

It will be a ferociously competitive tournament, featuring the world’s best teams, so it can be hard to predict the overall winner. It’s often far safer to map out a team’s path to a specific stage. Kalshi is offering contracts on whether teams will reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final.

Group winner

The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams. That’s a 50% increase on the 32 teams that contested the last World Cup four years ago. They’ve been split into 12 groups, and each group features four teams.

You can predict the winner of each group. Some groups have a heavy favorite, like Spain in Group H, Argentina in Group L, and Brazil in Group C. Others are much tighter. For example, the USMNT is the favorite in Group D, but the market gives them just a 51% chance of success.

Group qualifiers

The top two teams in each group will qualify for the knockout stage, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The other two teams will pack their bags and head home. You can buy yes/no contracts on whether each team will qualify from their groups.

It’s not really worth buying “yes” contracts on heavy favorites like Spain, France, Argentina, England, and Brazil, as the upside is too low. Instead, it’s best to dig a little deeper and try to find teams that could upset their more established rivals. For example, African champions Senegal may be capable of causing an upset against Norway in Group I, while the battle between Ecuador and Ivory Coast in Group E looks fascinating.

Golden Boot

The Golden Boot is awarded to the top goalscorer at the World Cup. You need to consider which teams are likely to make the latter stages of the tournament when making predictions on this market.

Kylian Mbappé won it in 2022 after France reached the final, while Harry Kane claimed the Golden Boot in 2018 following England’s run to the semifinals. They’re the top two contenders this year, followed by Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Luis Díaz, Erling Haaland, and Cristiano Ronaldo. One dark horse to watch is Germany’s Nick Woltemade, who signed for Newcastle for a club-record fee and has hit the ground running in the Premier League. Kalshi lists this market as “FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner.”

World Cup props and special markets

Both platforms offer World Cup prop contracts beyond the standard outright and group markets. These are the live props available right now:

• “Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, currently trading at 91% yes with $16K in volume. The 39-year-old hasn’t officially confirmed whether he’ll suit up for Argentina, making this one of the most actively debated World Cup props.
• “Which continent will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, with Europe priced at 67% and $5.1K in volume. Given that four of the top five favorites are European, this contract offers a way to bet on the broader trend rather than picking a single team.
• “2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?” — Available on Polymarket, with $768K in volume, making it the largest non-outright World Cup market on the platform. Individual contracts cover teams still navigating the playoff path, including Italy (66% to qualify) and DR Congo (85%).
• “FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay” — Available on Polymarket, trading at 20%. This bundles multiple qualification outcomes into a single contract for traders looking for a high-risk, high-reward play.

Kalshi offers two off-the-field World Cup props worth watching:

• “Who will sing the next World Cup song?” — Available on Kalshi. FIFA debuted its first official anthem, “Desire” by Robbie Williams and Laura Pausini, at the 2025 Club World Cup, and this contract lets traders predict the artist behind the next World Cup song.
• “Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup this year?” — Available on Kalshi. The U.S. travel ban has restricted fans from Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal from attending matches, and geopolitical tensions around tariffs have raised questions about whether any European nation could withdraw. This contract captures that uncertainty.

Expect both platforms to add more props as the tournament approaches, particularly around player-specific markets and match-level props.

Markets on specific World Cup matches

Kalshi has already released markets on the first round of group stage games. Right now, you’ll only find contracts on the result of each game. There are three options: Team A to win, a tie, or Team B to win. As always, you can buy “yes” contracts if you think a team will win their opening World Cup match.

Prediction sites will release more markets closer to kick-off. These are the main markets to look out for:

• Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can predict which team will cover the spread. For example, you might find Argentina -1.5 against Algeria. If you expect Argentina to win by a margin of at least 2 goals, buy “yes” contracts on Argentina. If you think Algeria will win, tie, or lose by a single goal, buy “yes” on Algeria.
• Total goals: A simple yes/no contract on whether both teams will combine for a certain number of goals. For instance, the line might be set at 2.5 goals. If you expect at least 3 goals in the game, buy “yes.” If not, buy “no.”
• Both teams to score: Another straightforward yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net.
• Goalscorer: You can predict whether a specific player will score during the match too. Once again, just make a yes/no prediction.

These markets are settled at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus any injury-time). They don’t include extra-time or penalties when it comes to knockout stage games.

Where to trade or bet World Cup

You’ll find lots of World Cup markets on the leading prediction sites. These are the top five to consider:

Kalshi: This app is available nationwide, and it offers deeper liquidity than rival prediction sites. It’s typically easy to open contracts and exit positions on popular markets like World Cup games. The fees are competitive (much lower than the juice charged by sportsbooks), and the platform is accessible. There are lots of World Cup markets too.

Polymarket: Another established prediction site, which operates on a nationwide basis. It’s a major rival to Kalshi, with a very similar user interface. The spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket can be significant, so it’s worth checking both sites before making your predictions. Polymarket has a different fee structure too, so it’s often cheaper to use this site.

DraftKings: The Boston-based gambling giant recently expanded into prediction markets after buying regulated site Railbird. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions isn’t available nationwide, but the site launched in 38 states. There are no World Cup markets yet, but we expect them to appear in the build-up to the tournament.

Fanatics: The Florida-based retailer has expanded into sports betting and casino gaming in recent years, and it has now jumped on the prediction markets bandwagon. Fanatics Markets launched in 24 states in December 2025, and it could expand as the World Cup approaches.

Underdog: The company teamed up with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets in 2025. Underdog Predict doesn’t offer the same sort of liquidity that you’ll find at Kalshi, but it’s another platform that’s gaining momentum, so it could emerge as a credible rival by the time the World Cup kicks off.

World Cup resolution criteria

Understanding the resolution criteria is the most important part of trading on prediction markets. Here’s how World Cup contracts will settle, and what you need to know before placing a trade. Learn more about how Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts.

Settlement date: The main tournament winner market will be settled on July 20, 2026. That’s one day after the final.

Resolution source: Prediction sites will use FIFA as the primary source for resolving contracts, with credible reporting as backup. Kalshi uses FIFA and ESPN, while Polymarket states: “The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”

How elimination works in contracts: If a team is eliminated (knocked out in the group stage or a knockout round), the contract resolves to “no” immediately. This is the case at Kalshi and Polymarket.

Cancellation/postponement clause: Per Polymarket, if the World Cup is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “other.”

Extra time / penalties: The tournament winner is the team that lifts the trophy, regardless of how the final is decided (regulation, extra-time, or penalties). However, markets on individual matches are settled at the end of regulation time (not including extra-time or penalties).

48-team format implications: The top two from each of 12 groups will advance to round of 32, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The tournament will then follow a single-elimination knockout format through to the final.