World Cup Group J Winner Odds and Predictions
Prediction markets give Argentina the highest probability of advancing out of Group J at 74.9%, with Austria at 13.5%, Algeria at 6.5%, and Jordan at 0.9% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. Group play opens Tuesday, June 16 with Argentina vs Algeria at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri (9 p.m. ET on Fox), followed by Austria vs Jordan on Wednesday, June 17 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California (12 a.m. ET on FS1). The group continues with Argentina vs Austria at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas and Jordan vs Algeria at Levi's Stadium, and closes Saturday, June 27 with Algeria vs Austria at Arrowhead Stadium and Jordan vs Argentina at AT&T Stadium. Our Group J odds table below shows the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini on each outcome, refreshing every 30 minutes.
Group J Prediction Market Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
ARArgentina
Vol $13.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
-298↓ -0.1%
P
-308
K
-292
AUAustria
Vol $8.5K
Spread 69.5%
Agg
+641↓ -2.0%
O
-488
P
+488
K
+641
ALAlgeria
Vol $7.7K
Spread 70.5%
Agg
+1,438↓ -1.7%
O
-335
K
+1,076
P
+1,438
JOJordan
Vol $7.0K
Spread 32.2%
Agg
+11,665↓ -2.4%
O
+203
K
+6,567
P
+11,665
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR Argentina | -298 ↓ -0.1% | 1.0% | $13.2K |
Kalshi
-292
|
Polymarket
-308
|
OG
—
|
AU Austria | +641 ↓ -2.0% | 69.5% | $8.5K |
Kalshi
+641
|
Polymarket
+488
|
OG
-488
|
AL Algeria | +1,438 ↓ -1.7% | 70.5% | $7.7K |
Kalshi
+1,076
|
Polymarket
+1,438
|
OG
-335
|
JO Jordan | +11,665 ↓ -2.4% | 32.2% | $7.0K |
Kalshi
+6,567
|
Polymarket
+11,665
|
OG
+203
|
Argentina has a 74.9% implied probability to win Group J
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR Argentina |
JO Jordan |
Polymarket | A -308 | B +11,665 | +74.65% | Buy spread | |
AR Argentina |
JO Jordan |
Kalshi | A -292 | B +6,567 | +73.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Argentina |
AL Algeria |
Polymarket | A -308 | B +1,438 | +69.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Argentina |
AL Algeria |
Kalshi | A -292 | B +1,076 | +66.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Argentina |
AU Austria |
Kalshi | A -292 | B +641 | +61.00% | Buy spread | |
AR Argentina |
AU Austria |
Polymarket | A -308 | B +488 | +58.50% | Buy spread | |
AU Austria |
JO Jordan |
Polymarket | A +488 | B +11,665 | +16.15% | Buy spread | |
AU Austria |
JO Jordan |
Kalshi | A +641 | B +6,567 | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
AU Austria |
AL Algeria |
Polymarket | A +488 | B +1,438 | +10.50% | Buy spread | |
AL Algeria |
JO Jordan |
Kalshi | A +1,076 | B +6,567 | +7.00% | Buy spread | |
AL Algeria |
JO Jordan |
Polymarket | A +1,438 | B +11,665 | +5.65% | Buy spread | |
AU Austria |
AL Algeria |
Kalshi | A +641 | B +1,076 | +5.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Group J schedule
| Date | Time (ET) | Match | Venue | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, June 16 | 9 p.m. | Argentina vs Algeria | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City | Fox |
| Wed, June 17 | 12 a.m. | Austria vs Jordan | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | FS1 |
| Mon, June 22 | 1 p.m. | Argentina vs Austria | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | Fox |
| Mon, June 22 | 11 p.m. | Jordan vs Algeria | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | FS1 |
| Sat, June 27 | 10 p.m. | Algeria vs Austria | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City | FS1 |
| Sat, June 27 | 10 p.m. | Jordan vs Argentina | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | Fox |
Group J standings
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Standings are zeroed out pre-tournament. The first Group J matchday is set for June 14. The team order follows the official draw seeding (Argentina 1, Algeria 2, Austria 3, Jordan 4). The top two teams from Group J will advance directly to the round of 32, with the third-place team eligible if they finish among the eight best third-place teams across the 12 groups.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |