The World Cup group stage will begin when Mexico and South Africa clash at Estadio Azteca on Thursday afternoon. Soccer fans can then look forward to 72 games in just 17 action-packed days, before the group stage finally concludes on June 27.
FIFA has divided the 48 World Cup contenders into 12 groups. Each team will play the other three teams in their group, earning 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw (tie). The teams will then be ranked in descending order.
The top two teams in each group will advance to the knockout stage, along with the eight best third-place teams. You can predict which team will win each group at Kalshi or Polymarket.
Each World Cup group has a clear favorite, but the implied probabilities tell a more interesting story. Below we break down each group’s odds of winning, flag the teams that look mispriced, and point to where the value sits for traders heading into the opener.
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Group A – Mexico
- Kalshi ($145,262 volume): Mexico 57%, Korea Republic 22%, Czechia 19%, South Africa 6%
- Polymarket ($533,399): Mexico 56%, Korea Republic 21%, Czechia 18%, South Africa 6%
Mexico deserves its status as the Group A favorite. El Tri will benefit from passionate home support at this tournament, and they’re currently on an eight-game unbeaten streak. They’ve only conceded two goals in their last eight matches. However, Korea Republic is stacked with attacking talent, so it looks like a genuine contender, potentially offering value at 22% with Kalshi.
Group B – Switzerland
- Kalshi ($103,203): Switzerland 55%, Canada 33%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 12%, Qatar 3%
- Polymarket ($295,729): Switzerland 56%, Canada 31%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 13%, Qatar 3%
Switzerland looks vastly superior to its Group B opponents. The likes of Gregor Kobel, Manuel Akanji, Granit Xhaka, and Breel Embolo give the team a strong spine, while Johan Manzambi is dangerous in attack. Home advantage gives Canada an outside chance of winning the group, but it would be surprising if Switzerland failed to finish first.
Group C – Brazil
- Kalshi ($279,241): Brazil 71%, Morocco 21%, Scotland 8%, Haiti >1%
- Polymarket ($488,348): Brazil 72%, Morocco 21%, Scotland 8%, Haiti 1%
Group C looks like a two-horse race between Brazil and Morocco. They’re No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, in the FIFA world rankings, so it’s surprising to see Brazil as such a heavy favorite to win Group C. The Seleção have a wealth of elite attackers in their ranks, but Morocco is extremely strong in defense, so backing Brazil looks a little risky.
Group D – USA
- Kalshi ($259,963): USA 40%, Turkiye 36%, Paraguay 18%, Australia 10%
- Polymarket ($312,570): USA 39%, Turkiye 35%, Paraguay 18%, Australia 9%
It’s easy to see why the USMNT is the favorite to win Group D. Team USA will be playing on home soil, and manager Mauricio Pochettino has a strong squad at his disposal. However, Turkiye can call upon the likes of Real Madrid’s Arda Güler, Juventus winger Kenan Yıldız, and Inter Milan’s Hakan Çalhanoğlu, so it could easily cause an upset in Group D.
Group E – Germany
- Kalshi ($98,163): Germany 68%, Ecuador 21%, Ivory Coast 12%, Curaçao >1%
- Polymarket ($169,862): Germany 68%, Ecuador 22%, Ivory Coast 13%, Curaçao 1%
This group looks fiendishly difficult to call. Germany is the clear favorite, but it crashed out at the group stage of the last two World Cups. Ecuador is an extremely strong team, featuring elite players like Moisés Caicedo and Willian Pacho, while Ivory Coast just beat World Cup favorite France in a friendly. For those reasons, traders are steering clear of Group E, with low volumes at Kalshi and Polymarket.
Group F – Netherlands
- Kalshi ($95,941): Netherlands 54%, Japan 27%, Sweden 16%, Tunisia 5%
- Polymarket ($290,401): Netherlands 54%, Japan 27%, Sweden 16%, Tunisia 6%
This is another group with relatively thin trading volumes, as it features four strong teams with no obvious underdogs. However, the Netherlands’ defense is elite, led by Virgil van Dijk, and that could ultimately prove pivotal in Group F. Japan is missing star player Kaoru Mitoma, while Sweden struggles in defense and Tunisia struggles in attack, so the Netherlands looks like the leading contender here.
Group G – Belgium
- Kalshi ($61,376): Belgium 68%, Egypt 18%, Iran 11%, New Zealand 4%
- Polymarket ($150,119): Belgium 68%, Egypt 18%, Iran 11%, New Zealand 4%
Belgium should be far too strong for its Group G opponents. The Belgians have regressed over the past few years, but they still have world-class players like Thibaut Courtois, Kevin De Bruyne, and Jérémy Doku in their ranks.
Group H – Spain
- Kalshi ($51,430): Spain 78%, Uruguay 20%, Saudi Arabia 2%, Cape Verde 2%
- Polymarket ($251,999): Spain 79%, Uruguay 20%, Saudi Arabia 2%, Cape Verde 1%
Spain is on a 34-game unbeaten streak, and the reigning European champion should outclass its opponents in Group H. Uruguay is the only team with a realistic chance of stopping Spain from winning this group, but Spain looks superior in every department.
Group I – France
- Kalshi ($124,114): France 64%, Norway 26%, Senegal 11%, Iraq >1%
- Polymarket ($347,659): France 66%, Norway 25%, Senegal 11%, Iraq 1%
France is the World Cup favorite, but its recent 2-1 defeat to Ivory Coast in a friendly spooked some traders. Les Bleus have landed in a tough group alongside Norway and Senegal. The Norwegian attack is extremely dangerous, led by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, while Senegal is No. 15 in the FIFA world rankings. They’re both strong teams, but France should ultimately have enough quality to prevail.
Group J – Argentina
- Kalshi ($54,029): Argentina 71%, Austria 19%, Algeria 9%, Jordan 1%
- Polymarket ($247,699): Argentina 72%, Austria 19%, Algeria 10%, Jordan 1%
Argentina should crush its rivals in Group J. The reigning world champion has an embarrassment of world-class forwards, including Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, and Lautaro Martínez. Austria looks like a credible opponent, but it’s hard to see the Austrians coping with Argentina’s firepower.
Group K – Portugal
- Kalshi ($104,721): Portugal 62%, Colombia 32%, Congo DR 4%, Uzbekistan 3%
- Polymarket ($189,033): Portugal 63%, Colombia 32%, Congo DR 4%, Uzbekistan 2%
This looks like another two-horse race between Portugal and Colombia, with Congo DR and Uzbekistan fighting for third place. However, Portugal should get the better of Colombia. The midfield is stacked with talent, featuring Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, João Neves, and Bernardo Silva, and veteran striker Cristiano Ronaldo is still a handful in attack.
Group L – England
- Kalshi ($81,591): England 69%, Croatia 21%, Ghana 7%, Panama 3%
- Polymarket ($111,361): England 69%, Croatia 23%, Ghana 6%, Panama 2%
England is third in the World Cup winner market, behind only France and Spain. Traders expect the Three Lions to win their group and go deep into the tournament. They’re up against three decent teams, but Croatia’s key players are past their best, and Ghana is currently on a six-game winless streak, while Panama is the clear underdog. For those reasons, England should win the group, with captain Harry Kane leading the charge.
