USA to Win World Cup 2026: Group D Odds & Predictions

Match preview and odds analysis

Prediction markets give the US team a 1.4% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup. That puts them well behind Spain, France, England, and Argentina — but ahead of every other CONCACAF side. The USMNT is priced at 2.1% with Kalshi to win the World Cup, but only 1.4% with Polymarket – where most of the volume has flowed through. That’s a significant spread, which suggests that patriotic traders on Kalshi are more bullish on Team USA’s chances of success.

Yet traders turned more bearish on the USMNT after a couple of underwhelming performances at the end of March. The team lost 5-2 to Belgium in a friendly on March 28, and they then suffered a 2-0 defeat to Portugal three days later. The defense struggled in both games, which is concerning. Forward Patrick Agyemang was then ruled out of the tournament after sustaining a serious injury in April, limiting the team’s attacking options.

Another popular market for those looking to back Team USA: the USMNT is priced at 39% to win Group D with Kalshi. That makes them the narrow favorites ahead of Turkey (38%). They were priced at 48% two weeks ago, but traders downgraded their chances after they lost to Belgium and Portugal.

The current USA Men’s World Cup odds suggest that the team has a realistic chance of making the quarterfinals, but they may struggle to go deeper into the tournament. They will benefit from strong home support, and head coach Mauricio Pochettino is a shrewd tactician. Most of the core players are in their mid-20s and playing regularly at major European clubs too. Folarin Balogun has been on a hot streak in front of goal for Monaco, while Weston McKennie has excelled for Juventus this season, so they could be crucial to the USMNT’s chances of success.

Pochettino will name his 26-man squad in late May. The USMNT will then take on Senegal in Charlotte on May 31 and Germany on June 6 in Chicago, and traders will be watching those games closely.

Group draw and tournament path: a West Coast Swing for the USMNT

The Americans have never advanced past the quarterfinals in the modern World Cup era, and they were knocked out in the Round of 16 in 2022 after a 3-1 loss to the Netherlands. The group stage should be manageable, but the knockout rounds are where this team has historically hit a wall. Home support will help — the USMNT plays all three group games on the West Coast — but the Americans remain underdogs against European and South American sides in the knockout rounds.

The USMNT will play their group stage games on the West Coast. Their first matchup begins in Los Angeles, and they will then head to Seattle to face Australia, before returning to LA for their final game. They look capable of winning all three matches. Most predictions have them finishing top of Group D. The top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a Round of 32.

• USA vs Paraguay (June 12, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles): The USA will kick off their group stage campaign against a well-drilled Paraguay team. The Paraguayans only conceded 10 goals in 18 qualifying games, and that superb defensive record earned them a place at the World Cup. This could be a tight, low-scoring game, but the Americans are the favorites, with a 48% chance of winning, according to Kalshi traders.
• USA vs Australia (June 19, Lumen Field, Seattle): This could prove to be a pivotal game between the Americans and the Socceroos. Australia is a disciplined, hardworking team, but the USA has more quality in midfield and attack. Kalshi makes the USA the 72% favorite to win this game, with Australia priced at 12%.
• USA vs Turkey (June 25, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles): Mauricio Pochettino’s men will end their group stage campaign against a Turkey. The Turks earned a place at the tournament after beat Romania and Kosovo in the playoffs in March. They have elite players like Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Çalhanoğlu in their ranks, so Turkey could be the USMNT’s most dangerous opponent in Group D.

If the Stars and Stripes win Group D, they will face the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in the Round of 32. They would be the heavy favorites for that game, and most predictions have them advancing comfortably. Their most likely opponent in the Round of 16 would be Belgium. The Belgians would probably be the slight favorites, but they’re past their best, and key players like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne have struggled with injuries.

That game would take place in Seattle, so the USA would enjoy strong home support. If they win, they will advance to the quarterfinals in Inglewood. Their most likely opponent would be Spain, the reigning European champion and the consensus World Cup favorite with prediction markets. Anyone betting on the USA to win the World Cup is essentially betting they can beat Spain — a low-probability outcome, but not impossible on home soil.

If the USA finishes second in Group D, they would face a tougher path through the bracket. For that reason, Team USA will be focused on winning the group.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: the USA needs Pulisic to stay healthy

The elephant in the room is Christian Pulisic’s fitness — and it’s the single biggest factor affecting the USA’s World Cup odds. The AC Milan forward has dealt with a hamstring injury and bursitis this season, and he hasn’t been a consistent starter in Serie A recently. Pochettino addressed it directly in a recent press conference, saying Pulisic has been “playing, then not playing, then on the bench.”

The USMNT captain has also struggled for form this season. His last goal came in a 3-0 win against Verona in December, and he’s currently on a 16-game goal drought. Pochettino has explicitly said no one is guaranteed a place in the squad. That said, the media consensus on near-locks (barring injury) is pretty tight:

• Widely considered locks: Pulisic, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Matt Freese (GK), Antonee Robinson, although Adams missed the USA’s March games with a minor injury.
• Likely locks but with caveats: Malik Tillman (injury history), Sergino Dest, Alex Freeman, Mark McKenzie.
• The striker spot is wide open: Balogun is the presumptive starter, but Haji Wright is in fine form for Coventry, while Ricardo Pepi has recovered from a broken arm and was called up to the USA squad in March. Unfortunately, Patrick Agyemang will miss the World Cup after sustaining an injury while playing for Derby County in April. He’s a Pochettino favorite, and he scored in the 5-2 defeat to Belgium in March, so that’s a major blow.
• Notable uncertainty: Gio Reyna (has only played 26 minutes for his club, Borussia Monchengladbach in 2026, but called up to Pochettino’s 27-man squad for the March friendlies), Yunus Musah (barely playing at Atalanta).

Related markets for the USA

The World Cup is expected to be the second-largest betting event in North America this year, behind the Super Bowl. It will also be the first time sports bettors in California and Texas can legally access sports markets through prediction sites and trade on the Men’s team.

You will find several World Cup prediction markets available beyond the USA’s outright odds:

• To win Group D: The US Men’s Team is trending at a 39% chance of winning Group D. Kalshi makes the USA the narrow favorite, ahead of Turkey (38%).
• To qualify for the knockout stage: The Stars and Stripes have an 82% chance of reaching the Round of 32 and better odds of this stage compared to Mexico and Canada, the other two host nations. They need to clinch a top-two finish in Group D, or they must be one of the eight best third-place teams.
• To reach a certain stage: You can also bet on how far the USA will go — Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final. If you think the Americans hit their usual ceiling in the Round of 16, that contract may offer better value than the outright winner.
• Golden Boot: Pulisic is trading at 2% on Kalshi to be the top scorer at the World Cup. Strikers like Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland are the favorites.
• World Cup prop markets: You can also trade on World Cup props that traditional sports betting sites don’t carry — whether Messi or Ronaldo will play, who sings the official World Cup song, whether Trump attends the final, or whether any US-scheduled games get relocated abroad. If you’re looking for action beyond match outcomes, Polymarket has the widest selection and the most liquidity.