USA vs Paraguay Odds Today
USA opens against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium on June 12, and the traders aren't buying the home-host narrative. Prediction markets have priced this match up as a coin flip at USA with 48.8%, Draw / Tie at 27.5% and Paraguay at 23.6%. Group D doesn't get easier from there, with Türkiye sitting on USMNT's heels at the top of the group. Round of 16 is the modal finish at roughly 55–60%, the same ceiling the USMNT has bumped into for two decades. Semifinals would mean breaking new ground, and the markets price that around 7–9% . Our aggregated cross-platform odds for USA vs Paraguay includes probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and OG with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
USUSA
Vol $116.4K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
48.8%↑ +1.4%
O
50.0%
K
49.5%
G
49.0%
P
48.5%
DTDraw / Tie
Vol $8.0K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
27.5%↑ +2.1%
O
28.0%
K
27.5%
P
27.5%
G
27.5%
PAParaguay
Vol $90.4K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
23.6%↓ -2.4%
K
24.0%
G
24.0%
O
24.0%
P
23.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US USA | 48.8% ↑ +1.4% | 1.5% | $116.4K |
Kalshi
49.5%
|
Polymarket
48.5%
|
Gemini
49.0%
|
OG
50.0%
|
DT Draw / Tie | 27.5% ↑ +2.1% | 0.5% | $8.0K |
Kalshi
27.5%
|
Polymarket
27.5%
|
Gemini
27.5%
|
OG
28.0%
|
PA Paraguay | 23.6% ↓ -2.4% | 0.5% | $90.4K |
Kalshi
24.0%
|
Polymarket
23.5%
|
Gemini
24.0%
|
OG
24.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US USA |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 49¢ | Sell @ K 49¢ | +0.00% | -0.49% |
No | |
PA Paraguay |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 24¢ | Sell @ K 23¢ | -1.00% | -1.23% |
No | |
DT Draw / Tie |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 28¢ | Sell @ K 27¢ | -1.00% | -1.27% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US USA |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi | A 49.5% | B 24.0% | +25.50% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
PA Paraguay |
Polymarket | A 48.5% | B 23.5% | +25.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
PA Paraguay |
Gemini | A 49.0% | B 24.0% | +25.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
DT Draw / Tie |
Kalshi | A 49.5% | B 27.5% | +22.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
DT Draw / Tie |
Gemini | A 49.0% | B 27.5% | +21.50% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
DT Draw / Tie |
Polymarket | A 48.5% | B 27.5% | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
DT Draw / Tie |
PA Paraguay |
Polymarket | A 27.5% | B 23.5% | +4.00% | Buy spread | |
DT Draw / Tie |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 24.0% | +3.50% | Buy spread | |
DT Draw / Tie |
PA Paraguay |
Gemini | A 27.5% | B 24.0% | +3.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Martin Green
Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin…
Christopher Feery
Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…
Match preview and odds analysis
Prediction markets give the US team a 1.2% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup. That puts them well behind Spain, France, England, and Argentina — but ahead of every other CONCACAF side. The USMNT is priced at 1.5% with Kalshi to win the World Cup, but only 1.2% with Polymarket. That spread suggests patriotic traders on Kalshi are more bullish on Team USA’s chances of success.
The USMNT’s World Cup odds lengthened after a couple of underwhelming performances at the end of March. The team lost 5-2 to Belgium in a friendly on March 28, and they then suffered a 2-0 defeat to Portugal three days later. The defense struggled in both games, which is concerning. Forward Patrick Agyemang was then ruled out of the tournament after sustaining a serious injury in April, limiting the team’s attacking options.
However, Team USA bounced back with an impressive 3-2 win against a strong Senegal team on May 31. Former Liverpool forward Sadio Mané scored twice, but goals from Sergiño Dest, Christian Pulisic, and Folarin Balogun earned the USMNT a hard-fought victory. It was especially encouraging to see Pulisic get on the score sheet, as he ended the 2025/26 season on a long goal drought for AC Milan.
Nanager Mauricio Pochettino insists that his team can lift the trophy. “Why not?” he said during an appearance on The Overlap podcast. “It’s all about belief. Look at Morocco in Qatar [at the last World Cup]. No one believed and they went right to the semifinal. All is possible in football.”
Another popular market for those looking to back Team USA: the USMNT is priced at 43% to win Group D with Kalshi. That makes them the narrow favorites ahead of Turkey (35%). They were priced at 48% a month ago, but traders downgraded their chances after they lost to Belgium and Portugal.
The current USA Men’s World Cup odds suggest that the team has a realistic chance of making the quarterfinals, but they may struggle to go deeper into the tournament. They will benefit from strong home support, and head coach Mauricio Pochettino is a shrewd tactician. Most of the core players are in their mid-20s and playing regularly at major European clubs too. Folarin Balogun has been on a hot streak for Monaco, with 21 goals this season, while Weston McKennie excelled for Juventus during the 2025/26 campaign, so they could be crucial to the USMNT’s chances of success.
Pochettino named his 26-man squad in late May. There weren’t many surprises, although Gio Reyna was a shock inclusion, as he has barely featured for Borussia Mönchengladbach this season.
Group draw and tournament path: a West Coast Swing for the USMNT
The Americans have never advanced past the quarterfinals in the modern World Cup era, and they were knocked out in the Round of 16 in 2022 after a 3-1 loss to the Netherlands. The group stage should be manageable, but the knockout rounds are where this team has historically hit a wall. Home support will help — the USMNT plays all three group games on the West Coast — but the Americans remain underdogs against European and South American sides in the knockout rounds.
| Market | USA | Draw | Opponent | Prediction Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup winner | ~2% | — | — | Kalshi |
| World Cup winner | ~2% | — | — | Polymarket |
| USA vs Paraguay (June 12, Los Angeles) | 49% | TBD | TBD | Kalshi |
| USA vs Australia (June 19, Seattle) | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| USA vs Turkey (June 25, Los Angeles) | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
The USMNT will play their group stage games on the West Coast. Their first matchup begins in Los Angeles, and they will then head to Seattle to face Australia, before returning to LA for their final game. They look capable of winning all three matches. Most predictions have them finishing top of Group D. The top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a Round of 32.
- USA vs Paraguay (June 12, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles): The USA will kick off their group stage campaign against a well-drilled Paraguay team. The Paraguayans only conceded 10 goals in 18 qualifying games, and that superb defensive record earned them a place at the World Cup. This could be a tight, low-scoring game, but the Americans are the favorites, with a 48% chance of winning, according to Kalshi traders.
- USA vs Australia (June 19, Lumen Field, Seattle): This could prove to be a pivotal game between the Americans and the Socceroos. Australia is a disciplined, hardworking team, but the USA has more quality in midfield and attack. Kalshi makes the USA the 72% favorite to win this game, with Australia priced at 12%.
- USA vs Turkey (June 25, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles): Mauricio Pochettino’s men will end their group stage campaign against a Turkey. The Turks earned a place at the tournament after beat Romania and Kosovo in the playoffs in March. They have elite players like Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Çalhanoğlu in their ranks, so Turkey could be the USMNT’s most dangerous opponent in Group D.
If the Stars and Stripes win Group D, they will face the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in the Round of 32. They would be the heavy favorites for that game, and most predictions have them advancing comfortably. Their most likely opponent in the Round of 16 would be Belgium. The Belgians would probably be the slight favorites, but they’re past their best, and key players like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne have struggled with injuries.
That game would take place in Seattle, so the USA would enjoy strong home support. If they win, they will advance to the quarterfinals in Inglewood. Their most likely opponent would be Spain, the reigning European champion and the consensus World Cup favorite with prediction markets. Anyone betting on the USA to win the World Cup is essentially betting they can beat Spain — a low-probability outcome, but not impossible on home soil.
If the USA finishes second in Group D, they would face a tougher path through the bracket. For that reason, Team USA will be focused on winning the group.
For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |
Key players and the full USMNT World Cup roster
Mauricio Pochettino named his 26-man squad for the 2026 World Cup on May 27. The roster is now set ahead of the USA’s opening group stage match against Paraguay on June 12 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Christian Pulisic leads the squad as its most capped attacking player, but all eyes will be on the striker group. Three forwards in double-digit goals this season give Pochettino a genuine selection headache from the jump.
Full USMNT World Cup roster:
Goalkeepers (3): Chris Brady (Chicago Fire), Matt Freese (New York City FC), Matt Turner (New England Revolution)
Defenders (10): Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew), Sergiño Dest (PSV), Alex Freeman (Villarreal), Mark McKenzie (Toulouse), Tim Ream (Charlotte FC), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace), Antonee Robinson (Fulham), Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati), Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Auston Trusty (Celtic)
Midfielders (4): Tyler Adams (AFC Bournemouth), Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders)
Attacking midfielders/wingers (6): Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United), Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Gio Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen), Tim Weah (Marseille), Alejandro Zendejas (Club América)
Strikers (3): Folarin Balogun (AS Monaco), Ricardo Pepi (PSV), Haji Wright (Coventry City)
Players to watch
With the roster set, these are the players most likely to determine how far the USA goes.
- Christian Pulisic has battled a hamstring injury and bursitis this season and has gone long stretches without a direct contribution for AC Milan. He remains the team’s most dangerous attacking player and the clearest measure of how far this squad can go in a home tournament.
- Folarin Balogun arrives in the best form of any US striker, with 19 goals across all competitions for AS Monaco this season. He is the presumptive starter up front.
- Ricardo Pepi matched Balogun with 19 goals for PSV and pushes hard for the starting spot. The competition between them gives Pochettino a genuine selection problem, which is a good thing.
- Haji Wright rounds out the group after a 17-goal season for Coventry City that earned the club promotion to the Premier League. Three strikers in double-digit goals heading into a home World Cup is not something this program takes for granted.
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Related markets for the USA
The World Cup is expected to be the second-largest betting event in North America this year, behind the Super Bowl. It will also be the first time sports bettors in California and Texas can legally access sports markets through prediction sites and trade on the Men’s team.
You will find several World Cup prediction markets available beyond the USA’s outright odds:
- To win Group D: The US Men’s Team is trending at a 43% chance of winning Group D. Kalshi makes the USA the narrow favorite, ahead of Turkey (35%).
- To qualify for the knockout stage: The Stars and Stripes have an 82% chance of reaching the Round of 32 and better odds of this stage compared to Mexico and Canada, the other two host nations. They need to clinch a top-two finish in Group D, or they must be one of the eight best third-place teams.
- To reach a certain stage: You can also bet on how far the USA will go — Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final. If you think the Americans hit their usual ceiling in the Round of 16, that contract may offer better value than the outright winner.
- Golden Boot: Pulisic is trading at 2% on Kalshi to be the top scorer at the World Cup. Strikers like Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland are the favorites.
- World Cup prop markets: You can also trade on World Cup props that traditional sports betting sites don’t carry — whether Messi or Ronaldo will play, who sings the official World Cup song, whether Trump attends the final, or whether any US-scheduled games get relocated abroad. If you’re looking for action beyond match outcomes, Polymarket has the widest selection and the most liquidity.