NFL Week 1 prediction market odds continue to take shape following the official release of the schedule for the upcoming season. NFL futures markets remain active at leading platforms, with volume on 2027 Super Bowl odds steadily rising. Below, we compare Kalshi and Polymarket odds to the top sportsbooks, take an early look at opening week matchups, and help get you ready for NFL Week 1 at prediction markets.
NFL Week 1 odds: Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, and DraftKings compared
Sportsbook moneylines are live for all 16 Week 1 games. Kalshi and Polymarket odds remain TBD and will be updated as markets open.
| Game | Kalshi | Polymarket | FanDuel | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | TBD | TBD | SEA -210 / NE +176 | SEA -205 / NE +170 |
| 49ers vs. Rams (Australia) | TBD | TBD | LAR -136 / SF +116 | LAR -155 / SF +130 |
| Saints @ Lions | TBD | TBD | DET -390 / NO +310 | DET -325 / NO +260 |
| Bears @ Panthers | TBD | TBD | CHI -142 / CAR +120 | CHI -135 / CAR +114 |
| Bills @ Texans | TBD | TBD | BUF -112 / HOU -104 | BUF -112 / HOU -108 |
| Ravens @ Colts | TBD | TBD | BAL -200 / IND +168 | BAL -185 / IND +154 |
| Falcons @ Steelers | TBD | TBD | PIT -136 / ATL +116 | PIT -175 / ATL +145 |
| Buccaneers @ Bengals | TBD | TBD | CIN -194 / TB +162 | CIN -198 / TB +164 |
| Jets @ Titans | TBD | TBD | TEN -138 / NYJ +118 | TEN -170 / NYJ +142 |
| Browns @ Jaguars | TBD | TBD | JAX -370 / CLE +295 | JAX -285 / CLE +230 |
| Commanders @ Eagles | TBD | TBD | PHI -215 / WAS +180 | PHI -238 / WAS +195 |
| Packers @ Vikings | TBD | TBD | MIN -126 / GB +108 | MIN -125 / GB +105 |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | TBD | TBD | LV -178 / MIA +150 | LV -180 / MIA +150 |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | TBD | TBD | LAC -600 / ARI +450 | LAC -625 / ARI +455 |
| Cowboys @ Giants | TBD | TBD | DAL -154 / NYG +130 | DAL -130 / NYG +110 |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | TBD | TBD | KC -142 / DEN +120 | KC -155 / DEN +130 |
*Kalshi and Polymarket odds include implied probabilities and are converted to American odds for easy comparison.
Week 1 game-by-game breakdown
Wednesday, Sept. 9
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA | Wednesday, Sept. 9 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock
The Super Bowl LX rematch kicks off the 2026 season in what marks just the second time in 75 years the NFL has opened on a Wednesday. Seattle is favored, reflecting both the home field advantage and the perceived gap between the two teams. The storyline here is whether Drake Maye and company have closed the gap since February’s 29-13 defeat.
Thursday Night Football, Sept. 10
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia | 8:35 p.m. ET | Netflix
The NFL’s first-ever game in Australia is one of the tightest on the Week 1 slate by pricing. The Rams enter as a modest favorite. They’re currently favored in Super Bowl odds on Kalshi, and second behind the Seahawks at Polymarket. Both teams enter with genuine NFC West title ambitions and legitimate Super Bowl cases, making this a must-see matchup.
Sunday, Sept. 13 – 1 p.m. ET games
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Ford Field, Detroit, MI | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Detroit opens as one of the heaviest favorites of Week 1. They’re favored to win the NFC North this season and widely expected to rebound from last season’s fourth-place finish. New Orleans arrives as a 1% Super Bowl contender on Kalshi. Pricing suggests this is one of the clearest mismatches on the opening slate.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Chicago opens as a slight road favorite, with Carolina aiming to prove last season’s NFC South crown wasn’t a fluke. The Bears are at 23% to win the NFC North on Kalshi. A clean Week 1 win on the road would be a strong early statement in what shapes up as a genuinely competitive division race with Detroit and Green Bay.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
The tightest line of the early Sunday window, with Buffalo installed as a slight favorite. The Bills enter as the AFC East’s top choice at 58% on Kalshi. Houston is favored at 39% to win the AFC South. A Bills loss here would immediately tighten the AFC East market, while a Texans victory could spike their division and conference pricing.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Baltimore opens as a road favorite against a Colts team still waiting on Daniel Jones to return from an Achilles tear. The Ravens lead the AFC North at 47% on Kalshi, the most dominant divisional position in the conference. Indianapolis is at 16% to win the AFC South at Polymarket, behind the Texans and Jaguars.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Pittsburgh is favored to get the home win, but heads to opening week with questions. The Steelers’ quarterback situation remains unresolved. Aaron Rodgers is still unsigned, contributing to the line discrepancy between books. Atlanta checks in at 21% to win the NFC South on Kalshi, last among the four teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Cincinnati opens as the home favorite and looks to bounce back from a 6-11 finish. The Bengals sit at 32% to win the AFC North on Kalshi, second only to Baltimore’s 47%. A strong Week 1 performance at home against Tampa Bay would be an early signal that better days could be on the way for Cincinnati and potentially tighten division pricing.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN | 1 p.m. ET
Tennessee opens as the favorite as they welcome a New York team that has lots of questions to answer following a 3-14 campaign. The Titans are at just 8% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, with the Jets at 5% to win the AFC East contender at 5%. Both franchises enter 2026 with low expectations and something to prove early.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Jacksonville opens as one of the largest favorites of the week. They won the AFC South a season ago, while Cleveland finished in the basement of the AFC North. The Jaguars, at 33% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, are well-positioned to make a division title run. A dominant Week 1 home win could help set the tone, while a tighter game could impact expectations.
Sunday, Sept. 13 – Late games
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Kalshi has the NFC East as a dead heat between Dallas and Philadelphia at 35% each, with Washington at 17%. The game is being priced as a clear Eagles advantage in Week 1. A Commanders win here would shift the division market, a race the prediction markets are already pricing as one to watch.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Kalshi has Green Bay at 30% and Minnesota at 20% to win the NFC North. Detroit (33%) and Chicago (23%) in the mix make this one of the most competitive chases on the board. Neither team can afford an early stumble in what shapes up as one of the more compelling matchups of the late Sunday window for Week 1.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV | 4:25 p.m. ET
Las Vegas opens as a home favorite against a Dolphins team Kalshi views as the AFC East’s biggest longshot at 4%. Miami’s worst regular-season record odds of 31% on Kalshi make this a game the Raiders, at 8% to win the AFC West, genuinely need to win early to establish any credibility in a division where three teams are bunched within four points at the top.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
The most lopsided line of Week 1 by a significant margin. The Chargers, at 34% to win the AFC West, open as heavy favorites in a game that should do little to move any market. The Cardinals, at 1% Super Bowl odds on Kalshi and 28% worst record odds, appear to be headed into the clearest mismatch on the slate.
Sunday Night Football, Sept. 13
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC (SNF)
Dallas opens as a road favorite for this divisional primetime showdown. The NFC East race is a virtual dead heat on Kalshi, with both Dallas and Philadelphia at 35% to win the division. The Giants are getting some market respect at 17%, up 4 points recently on Kalshi, under new head coach John Harbaugh. SNF is set to be a marquee game of the opening slate.
Monday Night Football, Sept. 14
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC (MNF)
Kansas City opens as a home favorite in the most strategically significant game of Week 1 from a division market standpoint. Kalshi has the AFC West as the tightest division race in football: Chargers 34%, Chiefs 32%, Broncos 30%. Patrick Mahomes’ availability is the central question. All signs point to him playing, but his recovery remains one of the offseason’s defining subplots.
NFL prediction market landscape: Post-schedule release
With the full 2026 schedule now confirmed, prediction markets have had their first look at sequencing, bye weeks, and early-season matchup context. Here is where the key markets stand heading into the summer.
NFL futures at prediction markets
The Los Angeles Rams enter 2026 as the Super Bowl favorite on Kalshi at 11%, with the Seattle Seahawks right behind at 8%. Polymarket tells a slightly different story: Seattle leads there at 11%, with the Rams at 10%. Buffalo sits third on both platforms at 7% on Kalshi and 8% on Polymarket.
On the conference side, Polymarket has the NFC as the more competitive landscape. Six teams sit within 9 points of each other for the NFC title, topped by the Rams at 17% down to the Lions at 8%. The AFC title market is more defined, with Baltimore leading at 14%, followed by Buffalo at 12% and Kansas City and the Chargers both at 11%.
Division markets on Kalshi point to several compelling storylines. The AFC West is the tightest race on the board: Chargers 34%, Chiefs 32%, Broncos 30%, three teams separated by just four points. The NFC North (Detroit 33%, Green Bay 30%, Chicago 23%) runs it close as the most competitive division in the NFC.
NFL prediction market trading volume
Kalshi’s Super Bowl LXI market has logged over $26.1 million in trading volume before a single game has been played. The figure speaks to the growing role prediction markets are playing in how NFL fans engage with the league during the offseason.
Polymarket’s Super Bowl market sits at $25.6 million in volume over the same period. Combined, the two platforms have seen more than $51 million traded on Super Bowl futures alone, with division and conference markets adding tens of millions more.
That number will climb steadily through training camp, the preseason, and into the regular season as even more markets open and weekly trading activity accelerates.
Notable Week 1 line moves
Two sportsbook discrepancies stand out on the Week 1 slate and are worth monitoring as prediction market lines come online. The Eagles-Commanders game has a full-point spread gap at sportsbooks. FanDuel opens Philadelphia at -4.5 while DraftKings sits at -5.5.
The Chargers-Cardinals game has the largest absolute spread gap of the week: FanDuel at -9.5, DraftKings at -11.5, a two-point difference on a game that both books agree is a heavy mismatch.
When Kalshi and Polymarket post game-level lines for Week 1, we’ll examine the divergence from sportsbook pricing in depth.
What to expect for NFL prediction markets this season
The 2026 season represents another significant step in the growth of NFL prediction market trading. For traders, the practical implication is that the NFL is no longer just a sportsbook sport. It is a fully functioning prediction market ecosystem with real liquidity, regulated infrastructure, and a growing suite of contracts that will expand as the season progresses.
Trading will remain active throughout the offseason, with volume and pricing sharpening as kickoff approaches. The Super Bowl market, already past $50 million in combined volume, will continue to attract significant trading activity through every week of the regular season and into the playoffs.
