Elite teams like France, Spain, England, and Argentina are heavy favorites to win their groups at the World Cup this summer. Other groups look much closer, including an intriguing battle between the USA and Türkiye in Group D. The group winner markets have generated more than $1.3M in volume on Polymarket and $318.8K on Kalshi. Contracts will settle after the final games have concluded in each group. Our 2026 FIFA World Cup group winner odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates.
2026 World Cup groups
Prediction markets with Group Stage odds
2026 World Cup Group A review
Mexico won Group A after beating South Africa 2-0 and South Korea 1-0 in its first two games. El Tri then beat Czechia 3-0 in their group stage closer, maintaining 100% winning record at this tournament. That defeat resulted in Czechia being eliminated from the tournament. South Africa clinched the runner-up spot after picking up a shock 1-0 victory over South Korea on Matchday 2. The South Koreans finished third, with just one win and two losses.
2026 World Cup Group B review
Switzerland won Group B after battling to a 2-1 win against Canada in Vancouver on Matchday 3. The Swiss ended the group stage with two wins and a draw. Canada was second after drawing 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina and thrashing Qatar 6-0. Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 on Matchday 3, so it finished level with Canada on four points, but Canada’s goal difference was superior.
2026 World Cup Group C review
Brazil and Morocco finished level with seven points each at the top of Group C. They drew 1-1 on Matchday 1, and both teams then beat Haiti and Scotland. However, Brazil had a significantly better goal difference, so the Seleção finished first. Morocco was the runner-up, and Scotland clinched third place courtesy of a 1-0 win against Haiti on Matchday 2.
2026 World Cup Group D review
The USA won Group D after thumping Paraguay 4-1 in its opening game and then beating Australia 2-0 in Seattle on Matchday 2. That left the USMNT with an unassailable lead at the top of the group. Folarin Balogun has been in superb form for his country, while the likes of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams have also played well at this tournament. Türkiye was eliminated after losing 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay. It dominated both of those matches, but poor finishing cost Türkiye. Australia and Paraguay drew 0-0 in their final group stage match, so Australia clinched the runner-up spot. The USA lost 3-2 to Türkiye in its final group stage game, but it was a meaningless result for both teams.
2026 World Cup Group E review
Germany won Group E after making a perfect start to the tournament. Die Mannschaft beat Curaçao 7-1 in its opening game, before two goals from Deniz Undav earned it a 2-1 comeback win against Ivory Coast. The Germans lost 2-1 to Ecuador in their final group stage match, but they still finished top of the group. Ivory Coast clinched second place. The Elephants beat Ecuador 1-0 on Matchday 1, courtesy of a late goal from Amad Diallo. They have rapid wingers like Yan Diomande and Simon Adingra, and they were a little unfortunate to lose to Germany on Matchday 2, but they bounced back with a 2-0 win against Curaçao. Ecuador third second courtesy of that 2-1 victory over Germany on June 25.
2026 World Cup Group F review
The Netherlands won Group F after maintaining an unbeaten record during the group stage. Ronald Koeman’s men could only draw 2-2 with Japan in their opener, but they then thrashed Sweden 5-1 and eased to a 3-1 win against Tunisia. Japan was the runner-up after beating Tunisia 4-0 and drawing 1-1 with Sweden. The Swedes had to settle for third place, despite beating Tunisia 5-1 in their opener. Their 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands proved costly, and they ultimately finished a point behind Japan after drawing with Hajime Moriyasu’s team on Matchday 3.
2026 World Cup Group G review
Belgium won Group G after cruising to a 5-1 win against New Zealand on Matchday 3. The Belgians made a slow start to the tournament, drawing with Egypt and Iran, but that heavy victory ensured they clinched the group. Egypt had to settle for second place. The Pharaohs finished level on points with Belgium, but they had an inferior goal difference. Iran was third after drawing all three of its games, while New Zealand only picked up one point.
2026 World Cup Group H review
Spain finished top of Group H, despite drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde on Matchday 1. La Roja bounced back with a 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia and a 1-0 victory over Uruguay, extending their long unbeaten streak. Cape Verde took the runner-up spot after drawing 2-2 with Uruguay and 0-0 with Saudi Arabia. Uruguay and Saudi Arabia were both eliminated.
2026 World Cup Group I review
France won Group I after beating all three of its opponents. Les Bleus clinched an impressive 3-1 win against Senegal on Matchday 1, before beating Iraq 3-0, and Norway 4-1. The Norwegians rested 10 members of their starting lineup for that game against France. They had already qualified after beating Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2 in their first two games, and they were happy to settle for the runner-up spot. Senegal clinched third place courtesy of a 5-0 win against Iraq on June 26.
2026 World Cup Group J review
Argentina won Group J after beating Algeria 3-0 and Austria 2-0 in its first two games. Lionel Messi fired in all five of Argentina’s goals, and he’s now the record World Cup goalscorer. He scored again after coming off the bench in a 3-1 win against Jordan on Matchday 3. Austria and Algeria played out a thrilling 3-3 draw on Matchday 3, which ensured that Austria took the runner-up spot and Austria qualified for the knockout stage as one of the best third-place teams.
2026 World Cup Group K review
Colombia won Group K after beating Uzbekistan and DR Congo in its first two games, before drawing 0-0 with Portugal. The Portuguese were unbeten, but draws with DR Congo and Colombia meant they had to settle for second place. DR Congo clinched third place with a 3-1 win against Uzbekistan on Matchday 3, propelling it into the Round of 32.
2026 World Cup Group L review
England won Group L after picking up seven points from three games. The Three Lions beat Croatia 4-2, drew 0-0 with Ghana, and then beat Panama 2-0. Croatia bounced back by beating Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1, so it finished second. Ghana’s 1-0 win against Panama on Matchday 1 ensured it finished third and qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament.
2026 World Cup groups, ranked by competitiveness
Prior to the tournament, we ranked the 12 groups in order of competitiveness, using group winner market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. The tighter the spread between the favorite’s implied probability and the field, the higher the group ranks.
- Group D: This is the most competitive group, as the USA and Türkiye look evenly matched. Kalshi has the USA at 44% and Türkiye at 35%, but Polymarket narrows that gap to 40% vs 36%. The USMNT has home advantage, but Türkiye boasts elite players like Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz, while Paraguay and Australia are also both strong in defense.
- Group A: Mexico began the tournament as the favorite at 53% on Kalshi, but Czechia and South Korea are both priced at 22%, making the race for second place as open as any in the tournament. South Africa also cruised through the African qualifying campaign. However, the odds shifted after Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 and South Korea beat Czechia 2-1 on the opening day of the tournament. Mexico now has a 65% chance of winning the group, according to Kalshi traders.
- Group B: Switzerland leads at 53% on Kalshi and 54% on Polymarket, but Canada at 26-27% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 19-20% make this genuinely competitive. Qatar is the clear fourth wheel.
- Group F: The Netherlands leads at 57% on Kalshi, but Japan at 26-28% makes this far from settled. Sweden and Tunisia are both credible threats, too.
- Group K: Portugal leads at 64-66%, but Colombia has been climbing — now at 32% on Kalshi and 30% on Polymarket. Both teams should beat DR Congo and Uzbekistan, so their head-to-head could decide the top spot.
- Group I: France leads at 66-71%, but Norway at 21% and Senegal at 9-11% make this the toughest group for any of the outright favorites.
- Group E: Germany leads at 69-71%, but Ecuador at 20-22% and Ivory Coast at 11-12% mean the Germans can’t afford a repeat of their last two group stage exits.
- Group G: Belgium leads at 69% on both platforms. Egypt at 15-16% is the only credible challenger, though Iran’s geopolitical situation adds an element of uncertainty.
- Group L: England leads at 72-73%, but Croatia at 20-22% and Ghana at 7-8% mean the Three Lions will need to be sharp. The group looks more competitive than the odds suggest.
- Group J: Argentina leads at 75-76%, with Austria the only realistic challenger at 15-18%. Algeria and Jordan are distant outsiders.
- Group C: Brazil leads at 76-77%, but Morocco at 18-21% gives this group more intrigue than the headline number suggests. Scotland’s volume on Polymarket adds a wild card element.
- Group H: Spain leads at 78-80%, the heaviest favorite of any group. Uruguay at 16-18% is the only realistic challenger. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde look overmatched.
Groups A, B, and D all look wide open. Those groups feature the co-hosts, the USA, Mexico, and Canada, who were all placed in Pot 1 (the top seed bracket) for the group stage draw. Pot 1 featured the world’s top nine teams, plus the three co-hosts, so it’s easy to see why Groups A, B, and D are the most competitive. The other nine groups look far less competitive, as each group features an elite team like France, Spain, England, or Argentina. However, Group F is worth keeping an eye on, as Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia could make life difficult for the Netherlands.
World Cup group winner market moves
Group D has seen the greatest price volatility since the market opened at Kalshi after the group stage draw in December 2025. The USA opened as the 47% favorite, and it spiked to 56.7% a month later. That all changed when Türkiye qualified for the World Cup via the European playoffs. Türkiye briefly became the Group D favorite in early April, but the USMNT has now pulled clear on Kalshi at 44% vs 35%. Polymarket tells a tighter story, with the USA at 40% and Türkiye at 36%. The lead has been passed back and forth in recent weeks.
Group A has attracted the greatest volume ($288,217 on Polymarket, $824,597 on Kalshi). At Polymarket, Mexico opened as the 54% favorite in December 2025. El Tri had dipped to just 28% by April, with Czechia emerging as the 29% favorite. However, Mexico then surged ahead at 51% on Polymarket and 53% on Kalshi, with Czechia and South Korea both sitting at 22-24% behind them. That all changed after wins for Mexico and South Korea on the opening day. Mexico is now the 65% favorite, according to Kalshi traders, with South Korea priced at 34%.
Group C might well be the most interesting market. More than $222,000 in trading volume has flowed through Polymarket on this group, but just $32,345 went on Brazil and $32,356 on Morocco. Meanwhile, traders have bought contracts worth a combined $136,971 on Scotland to win Group C. That could be down to patriotic Scots backing their team, or traders could genuinely believe that Scotland (5% on Polymarket) has a serious chance of upsetting Brazil.
DeFi Rate free World Cup bracket challenge
The 2026 World Cup is the biggest tournament in the sport’s history. DeFi Rate’s World Cup bracket challenge lets you predict every match from the group stage to the final. Track your score live as results come in, and compete against friends, coworkers, or the entire public leaderboard. Free to play and no account required. Just pick your teams and see how you stack up.
How the 2026 World Cup group stage works
The World Cup contenders have been divided into 12 groups. Each group features four teams of mixed ability. FIFA used a seeding process, which was designed to ensure that the world’s strongest teams were kept apart during the group stage. It means that there’s normally a heavy favorite in each group, such as Spain or Brazil.
However, it’s worth noting that the three co-hosts, Canada, Mexico, and the USA, were also placed in the top seed bracket. They wouldn’t normally be in that bracket, so their groups are the three most competitive groups at this tournament.
Here’s how the group stage works:
- Each team plays the other three teams in its group a single time. A team gets 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw (tie), and no points for a loss.
- At the end of the group stage, the teams are ranked in order of points earned. If two or more teams finish level on points, goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded) will be used to separate them. If they have an identical goal difference, the team that scored the most goals will be placed higher.
- In the unlikely event that they also scored an identical number of goals, FIFA will use their head-to-head record in the group stage to separate them. If they drew that game, the team that’s higher in the FIFA world rankings will come out on top.
- The top two teams in each group will automatically qualify for the knockout stage (the Round of 32).
- The eight best third-place teams (those with the most points, or the superior goal difference in a tiebreaker) will also qualify.
- There’s a clear incentive for a team to win its group, as it should theoretically lead to an easier Round of 32 game and a clearer path to the latter stages of the tournament.
In the past, the World Cup only featured 32 teams divided into eight groups, with the top two teams advancing to what was then the Round of 16. The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, and FIFA added an extra round, the new Round of 32, before the Round of 16 begins. This could lead to more mismatches in the group stage and in the new Round of 32, giving elite strikers more chances to bolster their goal tallies against weak opponents.
World Cup group prediction markets explained
Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket let you buy yes/no contracts on whether a certain team will win its World Cup group. They aren’t sportsbooks, so you aren’t placing wagers against the house. You’re trading contracts with fellow users, and the sites just take a hosting fee. For each team, you’ll see a “Yes” price and a “No” price, which will be between $0.00 and $0.99. The contracts settle at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Here’s an example:
- Let’s say you want to back the USA to win Group D. You select the “World Cup Group D Winner” market, and you see these options: “USA – Yes 44¢, No 58¢.”
- Tap the “Yes 44¢” button, and your selection will appear on the trading slip. You can then enter the amount you wish to spend.
- Let’s say you enter $100. The site will tell you that you’re buying 227 contracts at 44¢ each. The odds suggest a 44% chance of success. Each contract will settle at $1 if the USA wins the group, so your payout will be $227.
- If you’re happy, complete the trade. You can then hold onto your contracts until the group stage has concluded. If the USMNT wins Group D, the site will transfer $227 to your account balance.
- Alternatively, you can sell the contracts before the group stage ends. For example, let’s say the USA wins its opening game against Paraguay. At that point, “Yes” contracts might be trading at 55¢. If so, you could sell your 227 contracts for $124.85, which would net you a $24.85 profit. You could alternatively sell some contracts and leave the rest riding on the result.
Resolution criteria vary by platform but generally follow the same principle: the contract resolves in favor of whichever team finishes first in the group after all three group stage matches have been played. On Kalshi and Polymarket, group winner contracts settle based on the official FIFA standings at the conclusion of the group stage, including any tiebreakers applied by FIFA. If a match is abandoned or replayed, resolution follows the official FIFA result. Check the individual contract’s Rules tab on each platform for the specific terms before trading.
Prediction markets are regulated at a federal level by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Sites like Kalshi operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges, so they can offer event contracts across most of the country. Sports event contracts aren’t permitted in some states, but they’re available in the majority. They’re especially popular in states like California and Texas, which haven’t legalized online sports betting.
Where to trade or bet on World Cup groups
These are the top five sites to buy and sell yes/no contracts on the World Cup groups:
- Kalshi: This is the leading US prediction site, which offers a wide range of markets on the 2026 World Cup. You’ll often find inflated odds on teams like the USA and Mexico, so Kalshi could be a good option if you decide to fade them.
- Polymarket: A major rival to Kalshi, which has more of a global trader base. More volume is flowing through Polymarket than any other World Cup prediction market, so liquidity is strong, and it’s a good place to back the USA to win its group.
- DraftKings: The Boston-based sports betting giant launched DraftKings Predictions in December 2025, offering a large welcome bonus and fast payouts. World Cup group winner markets aren’t available yet, but they should appear soon.
- Fanatics: You’ll find a comprehensive soccer section at Fanatics Markets, with odds on the first round of group stage games. Group winner markets are likely to be published soon.
- Underdog: Soccer fans can claim a $50 welcome bonus at Underdog Predict using code DEFIRATE. The site covers the World Cup, along with various other tournaments, so you’ll be able to buy yes/no contracts on each group this summer.
You’ll find lots of extra World Cup markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, too. For example, Kalshi is offering yes/no contracts on whether each team will qualify for the knockout stage of the tournament. You can also back a team to reach a certain stage, such as the semifinals, or predict who will win the 2026 World Cup.
There are markets on individual awards like the Golden Boot winner, plus special props like “Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?” Prediction sites are offering a range of markets on each game as well, including the match winner, total goals, both teams to score, half-time result, and more.