World Cup co-hosts Mexico, Canada, and the USA will all begin their group stage campaigns this week. The tournament gets underway with an intriguing clash between Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City on Thursday.
Canada will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto on Friday, before the USMNT takes on Paraguay in Los Angeles later that evening. Prediction sites are offering a range of markets on all three games, and you can also make futures predictions about the World Cup co-hosts. We’ve rounded up the key markets and explored where the value lies right now.
Team USA World Cup Odds
- World Cup winner odds: Kalshi 1.6%, Polymarket 1.2%
- Furthest advancing host nation odds: Kalshi 35%, Polymarket 33%
- Chances of winning Group D: Kalshi 40%, Polymarket 39%
Traders on Kalshi give the USMNT a 35% chance of going deeper into the tournament than Canada and Mexico. Mauricio Pochettino’s men are the favorites to win Group D, which also features Turkiye, Paraguay, and Australia.
They will face fierce competition from a Turkiye team that boasts elite players like Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Paraguay’s defense is also very strong, so it won’t be easy for Team USA, but home advantage could swing things in their favor.
Pochettino has a strong squad at his disposal, led by Christian Pulisic. Striker Folarin Balogun is coming off a prolific season for Monaco, while Ricardo Pepi and Timothy Weah are also dangerous in attack. A midfield featuring Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams is full of industry, and the defense is pretty robust too.
Kalshi gives the USA a 51% chance of beating Paraguay in its opener. Paraguay is priced at 24%, and the tie is trading at 29%.
If the USMNT finishes top of its group, it will face a third-place team in the Round of 32, and it would be the clear favorite to win that game. If the USA finishes second to Turkiye, it will face the runner-up from Group G in the Round of 32. That’s likely to be either Egypt or Iran, and the USA would be the favorite to win that game too.
However, that could be the end of the road for this team. They’re on course to face either Belgium or Portugal in the Round of 16, and they’d be heavy underdogs. The USMNT lost to both Belgium and Portugal in friendlies in March. Kalshi has 27% on the USA being eliminated in the Round of 16, which looks like an appealing trade.
Mexico World Cup Predictions
- World Cup winner odds: Kalshi 2%, Polymarket 1.4%
- Furthest advancing host nation odds: Kalshi 44%, Polymarket 45%
- Chances of winning Group A: Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56%
Prediction markets make Mexico the favorite to advance further than any other host nation at the 2026 World Cup. El Tri will be full of confidence after winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup and the Nations League last year. They’re currently on an eight-game unbeaten streak, despite facing some very strong opponents.
Standout results include a 5-1 win against Serbia, a 1-1 draw with Belgium, a 2-0 win against Ghana, and an impressive 0-0 draw with Portugal. Mexico has conceded just two goals in its last eight games, and that defensive prowess could help El Tri go pretty deep into the tournament.
They’ve landed in a tricky World Cup group alongside South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa, but home advantage could give them the edge. Javier Aguirre’s men have a 70% chance of beating South Africa in their opener, according to Kalshi and Polymarket. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 57%, which underlines Mexico’s defensive strength, led by César Montes, Johan Vásquez, and Edson Álvarez.
If Mexico wins Group A, it will face a third-place team from Group C, E , F, H, or I in the Round of 32. It would probably be the favorite to win that game. However, it would then probably face England in the Round of 16, and it’s hard to see Mexico beating the Three Lions.
Mexico is the favorite to be the furthest advancing World Cup host nation, but El Tri could also struggle to reach the quarterfinals. After all, they were eliminated in the Round of 16 at seven consecutive World Cups between 1994 and 2018, before crashing out in the group stage in 2022. Mexico is priced at 33% to be eliminated in the Round of 32 and 29% to be eliminated in the Round of 16 with Kalshi, and the latter option looks tempting.
Canada’s World Cup Odds
- World Cup winner odds: Kalshi 0.5%, Polymarket 0.5%
- Furthest advancing host nation odds: Kalshi 27%, Polymarket 32%
- Chances of winning Group B: Kalshi 33%, Polymarket 31%
Canada has a 55% chance of beating Bosnia and Herzegovina in its World Cup opener, according to Kalshi. Polymarket traders aren’t quite as bullish, but they give Canada a 53% chance of winning the game.
The CANMT should also get the better of Qatar in Group B, but they could struggle against Switzerland. They’re strong on the counterattack, but Switzerland has a stronger spine, featuring the likes of Gregor Kobel, Manuel Akanji, and Granit Xhaka. For that reason, Canada is only priced at 31% with Polymarket and 33% with Kalshi to win Group B.
It’s also worth noting that Alphonso Davies – Canada’s captain and star player – is currently injured, and he’s expected to miss the opening game. That’s a blow, so Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, and Tajon Buchanan will really need to step up in his absence.
If Canada finishes second in Group B, it will face the runner-up from Group A in the Round of 32. As mentioned above, that group features Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa – four strong teams. Canada would probably be the underdog, so it’s easy to see why “Round of 32” is the favorite in Canada’s stage of elimination market on Kalshi. Round of 32 is priced at 44%, compared to 31% on the Round of 16, 19% on the group stage, and 7% on the quarterfinals.
Canada has never previously reached the knockout stage of the World Cup, so that would be a solid achievement this year. The CANMT is trading at 86% to make the knockout stage with Polymarket, but only 43% to reach the Round of 16, which suggests that the Round of 32 is where the team’s campaign will end.
