$789.7M Traded on 2026 World Cup Winner Markets as Spain Wins
Spain won the 2026 World Cup after beating Argentina 1-0 on July 19, 2026. DeFi Rate recorded $789.7 million in tracked trading volume across every team included in the winner markets on Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, and Gemini. This archived feed preserves the final market results and full probability history.
How All 2026 World Cup Team Odds Moved
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Martin Green
Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin...
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
Build a free 2026 World Cup bracket pool with no sign-up required and prediction-market odds shown on every match, then share a link to compete in a private pool with friends or climb the public leaderboard. You can also opt for a paper copy with our printable World Cup brackets with the groups filled in. If you are interested in trading, check out our list of World Cup prediction promos.
Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup after beating Argentina 1-0 in the final on July 19. Prediction markets recorded $789.7 million in tracked trading volume across every team included in the World Cup winner markets on Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, and Gemini. Argentina generated the most single-team activity at $183.7 million, followed by champion Spain at $111.0 million.
This post looks back at the final, the host nations’ campaigns, how traders priced the leading teams, and the total volume recorded across all tracked winner-market outcomes.
$789.7M traded across World Cup winner outcomes
Argentina and Spain accounted for the two largest team totals. The table includes all 57 team outcomes tracked during the full market cycle, including teams that traded while qualification was still unresolved.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | Total volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | $87,728,468 | $14,820,662 | $81,043,069 | $127,358 | $183,719,557 |
| Spain | $48,285,072 | $26,833,682 | $35,619,664 | $244,005 | $110,982,422 |
| France | $6,227,084 | $16,113,880 | $19,273,073 | $15,236 | $41,629,273 |
| Egypt | $1,527,419 | $26,755,398 | $267,640 | — | $28,550,457 |
| Cape Verde | $792,387 | $22,492,045 | $202,354 | — | $23,486,785 |
| Norway | $3,173,203 | $12,036,082 | $6,408,870 | $4,188 | $21,622,343 |
| England | $2,222,451 | $7,943,842 | $10,075,327 | $8,100 | $20,249,720 |
| Morocco | $1,946,007 | $16,738,679 | $1,329,287 | $504 | $20,014,477 |
| Mexico | $2,921,938 | $9,837,066 | $7,116,319 | $1,586 | $19,876,909 |
| Switzerland | $2,427,231 | $15,185,655 | $1,862,073 | $276 | $19,475,235 |
| Paraguay | $1,009,534 | $16,021,519 | $348,433 | — | $17,379,486 |
| South Korea | $3,467,868 | $12,507,056 | $27,195 | — | $16,002,120 |
| USA | $2,268,584 | $9,547,583 | $3,494,732 | $2,737 | $15,313,635 |
| Ecuador | $1,616,809 | $13,249,949 | $251,983 | — | $15,118,741 |
| Belgium | $1,419,019 | $10,847,283 | $1,794,422 | $499 | $14,061,223 |
| Portugal | $1,427,920 | $9,823,452 | $2,126,045 | $4,279 | $13,381,696 |
| Australia | $2,290,720 | $10,104,832 | $81,415 | $1 | $12,476,967 |
| Uzbekistan | $28,971 | $11,216,603 | $8,957 | $10 | $11,254,540 |
| Haiti | $75,307 | $10,125,807 | $4,550 | — | $10,205,663 |
| Qatar | $999 | $10,132,875 | $11,320 | $0 | $10,145,194 |
| Germany | $537,951 | $8,574,506 | $966,240 | $555 | $10,079,252 |
| Canada | $803,249 | $8,764,864 | $110,296 | — | $9,678,409 |
| Uruguay | $610,853 | $8,745,289 | $143,651 | — | $9,499,793 |
| Japan | $855,334 | $8,038,778 | $459,950 | $200 | $9,354,262 |
| New Zealand | $999 | $9,275,028 | $17,230 | — | $9,293,258 |
| Ghana | $774,313 | $8,113,695 | $29,651 | $1 | $8,917,661 |
| Croatia | $476,330 | $8,295,468 | $119,716 | $48 | $8,891,562 |
| Saudi Arabia | $1,000 | $8,510,906 | $9,181 | — | $8,521,086 |
| Algeria | $1,177,252 | $7,243,659 | $59,466 | $1 | $8,480,378 |
| Colombia | $793,853 | $6,357,813 | $1,245,163 | $1,678 | $8,398,506 |
| Ivory Coast | $676,885 | $7,362,372 | $100,561 | — | $8,139,817 |
| Curacao | $999 | $7,576,029 | $6,759 | — | $7,583,787 |
| Austria | $850,445 | $6,591,397 | $124,557 | — | $7,566,399 |
| Senegal | $1,145,476 | $6,116,138 | $141,791 | — | $7,403,405 |
| Scotland | $508,789 | $6,866,195 | $24,528 | — | $7,399,512 |
| Brazil | $486,495 | $5,168,220 | $1,113,188 | $1,228 | $6,769,132 |
| Netherlands | $564,716 | $4,333,509 | $1,487,978 | $3,010 | $6,389,213 |
| South Africa | $35,133 | $5,809,559 | $21,100 | — | $5,865,791 |
| Iran | $644,628 | $4,524,597 | $6,768 | — | $5,175,994 |
| Tunisia | $37,471 | $3,960,569 | $1,341 | — | $3,999,381 |
| Jordan | $999 | $3,322,539 | $1,348 | — | $3,324,887 |
| Sweden | $1,379,495 | — | $29,657 | — | $1,409,152 |
| Turkey | $1,304,878 | — | $23,601 | $0 | $1,328,480 |
| Italy | $109,358 | $878,102 | — | — | $987,460 |
| Denmark | $106,907 | — | — | — | $106,907 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | — | — | $62,144 | — | $62,144 |
| Wales | $49,960 | — | — | — | $49,960 |
| DR Congo | — | — | $32,371 | — | $32,371 |
| Ireland | $24,975 | — | — | — | $24,975 |
| Poland | $23,976 | — | — | — | $23,976 |
| Iraq | — | — | $9,105 | — | $9,105 |
| Panama | $3,682 | — | $3,066 | — | $6,748 |
| Czechia | — | — | $2,409 | — | $2,409 |
| Ukraine | $94 | — | — | — | $94 |
| Romania | $2 | — | — | — | $2 |
| Northern Ireland | $1 | — | — | — | $1 |
| Nigeria | — | — | — | — | — |
| All tracked outcomes | $184,843,487 | $426,763,178 | $177,699,546 | $415,499 | $789,721,711 |
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation of first-party exchange data. For each team and platform, the table uses the highest cumulative volume captured during the event so trading from settled or eliminated team markets is not lost when a venue later resets or stops returning that market. Kalshi uses displayed face-value contract volume; the other venue figures follow the volume values supplied to DeFi Rate by their respective market feeds. The combined figure is a measure of tracked market activity rather than standardized cash paid.
World Cup 2026 recap
Spain won the 2026 World Cup after beating Argentina 1-0 in the final on July 19. Ferran Torres scored the only goal of the game, but Spain’s defense was imperious throughout the match. La Roja conceded only one goal in eight games during the tournament, so goalkeeper Unai Simón won the Golden Glove. Spain captain Rodri won the Golden Ball as the tournament’s best player after lifting the trophy.
England finished third after Bukayo Saka’s hat trick inspired England to a 6-4 victory over France in the bronze medal match. It was a chaotic game, but it ensured England finished the tournament on a high note. Kylian Mbappé scored twice for France, taking his tally to 10 goals for the tournament. That secured the Golden Boot, two goals ahead of Lionel Messi.
Spain was the favorite to win the World Cup after beating France 2-0 in the semifinals. La Roja was priced at 58.2% with Kalshi and 58.0% with Polymarket before securing a dominant win against Argentina. The result extended Spain’s unbeaten streak to a record 38 games. Kalshi subsequently made Spain the favorite to win Euro 2028, ahead of England and France. Argentina became the early favorite to win a third consecutive Copa América title in 2028, ahead of Brazil, which suffered a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Norway in the Round of 16.
Host nations eliminated in the Round of 16
The USA, Canada, and Mexico co-hosted the 2026 World Cup, so all three teams qualified automatically. They all made it through to the Round of 16, but they were eliminated within the space of a brutal few days for North American soccer.
USA
The USMNT was eliminated after losing 4-1 to Belgium in the Round of 16. Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, and goals from Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku wrapped up a comprehensive win for the Belgians. Malik Tillman scored a free kick, but it proved to be a consolation goal for Team USA. Mauricio Pochettino’s men made several defensive errors and could not deal with De Ketelaere’s movement in the penalty box.
Before that defeat, Team USA traded at 4.3% on Kalshi and 2.8% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright after beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32. Team USA began its campaign with a 4-1 win against Paraguay before beating Australia 2-0 in Seattle. Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams were among the team’s standout players.
The USMNT lost its final group-stage game against Türkiye, but that was a meaningless match. The Stars and Stripes then got the better of Bosnia and Herzegovina before their campaign ended with a painful defeat in Seattle.
Mexico
Mexico was eliminated after losing 3-2 to England in the Round of 16. El Tri traded at 5.3% on Kalshi and 3.7% on Polymarket to win the World Cup before that defeat. The spread suggested Mexican soccer fans in the U.S. were more bullish on their team than traders elsewhere.
El Tri beat South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, and Czechia 3-0 in the group stage before clinching a dominant 2-0 win against Ecuador in the Round of 32. Mexico was on a 12-game unbeaten streak, but that run ended with defeat to England at Estadio Azteca on July 5.
Canada
Canada became the first co-host to be eliminated after losing 3-0 to Morocco in the Round of 16. Azzedine Ounahi scored twice and Soufiane Rahimi finished off a devastating counterattack to send the Atlas Lions through to the quarterfinals.
The CanMNT was always the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.3% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Canada finished second in its group and then beat South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32, courtesy of Stephen Eustáquio’s late strike from the edge of the penalty box. Canada was ultimately outclassed by a strong Morocco team in Houston.
Markets on future soccer tournaments
Kalshi and Polymarket offer markets on future tournaments such as Euro 2028 and Copa América. Traders can also find several market types on individual matches:
- To advance: A prediction on which team will progress to the next round. This includes the potential for extra time and a penalty shootout. The other markets cover regulation time only.
- Moneyline: A prediction on the result at the end of regulation time, with Team A, a draw, and Team B as the possible outcomes.
- Spread: One team receives a handicap, and traders predict which side will cover the spread.
- Total goals: A yes-or-no contract on whether both teams will combine for more or fewer than a specified number of goals.
- Both teams to score: A prediction on whether both teams will find the net.
- Goalscorer: A yes-or-no prediction on whether a specific player will score.