Spain vs. Argentina World Cup Finals

Author Martin Green

Martin Green

Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin…

Editor Christopher Feery

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…

Match preview and odds analysis

Spain is the heavy favorite to win the World Cup after beating France 2-0 in the semifinals. Prediction markets expected France to win that game, but goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro earned Spain a famous victory. It was a deserved win, as Spain dominated the ball and looked supremely composed out of possession.

La Roja were priced at just 21.2% to win the World Cup, but they’re now trading at 58.0% with Kalshi and 58.2% with Polymarket after putting France to the sword. They will face either England or Argentina in the final on Sunday. Spain would be favored to beat either team, as it is surging with momentum right now. That win against France extended Spain’s unbeaten streak to 37 games.

Prediction markets initially made Spain the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup earlier this year, but traders turned bearish on La Roja following a disappointing 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their opener. Star winger Lamine Yamal missed most of that game, as he has only just recovered from an injury, and Spain’s attack lacked spark.

Yamal returned to the starting lineup against Saudi Arabia on Sunday, and it took him just 10 minutes to open the scoring. Oyarzabal then scored twice, and Hassan Altambakti’s own goal sealed a 4-0 win for the Spaniards. They then beat Uruguay 1-0 in their group stage closer, before sweeping Austria aside in the Round of 32. Striker Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice in that game, and Pedro Porro headed in Marc Cucurella’s cross to wrap up the win.

Spain’s reward was a tricky quarterfinal clash with Portugal. It was a tight game, but Mikel Merino came off the bench to score a late winner. La Roja then beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals. Midfielder Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring, but Charles De Ketelaere equalized just before half-time. It was the first time that Spain had conceded a goal during the entire tournament, but Spain still found a way to win. Pau Cubarsí tried his luck with a long range strike, which goalkeeper Serge Lammens fumbled, and Merino pounced to fire in the winner, cementing his cult hero status.

Prior to that win against Belgium, Spain was trading at just 12.3% to win the World Cup. The Spaniards have now surged to 58.1% on aggregate. The Spaniards haven’t lost a game since March 2024. The only blemish is a penalty shootout loss to Portugal in the 2025 Nations League final, which technically counts as a draw. It’s also worth noting that Spain is the reigning European champion, and it’s now top of the FIFA world rankings.

Spain’s players know how to win big games at major tournaments, so it’s easy to see why they’re favored to win the World Cup for the first time since 2010. These are the players that will try to bring more silverware back to Spain:

• Goalkeepers: Unai Simon (Athletic Bilbao), David Raya (Arsenal), Joan Garcia (Barcelona).
• Defenders: Marcos Llorente (Atletico Madrid), Marc Pubill (Atletico Madrid), Pedro Porro (Tottenham), Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Bilbao), Eric Garcia (Barcelona), Pau Cubarsi (Barcelona), Marc Cucurella (Chelsea), Alejandro Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen).
• Midfielders: Rodri (Manchester City), Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal), Mikel Merino (Arsenal), Pedri (Barcelona), Gavi (Barcelona), Fabian Ruiz (Paris St-Germain), Alex Baena (Atletico Madrid).
• Forwards: Yeremy Pino (Crystal Palace), Victor Munoz (Osasuna), Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), Ferran Torres (Barcelona), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Dani Olmo (Barcelona), Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao), Borja Iglesias (Celta Vigo).

Group draw and tournament path: Spain’s route to the semifinals

Spain made a slow start to its World Cup campaign, but La Roja ultimately finished the group stage with an unbeaten record.

• Spain vs Cape Verde (June 15, Atlanta): Spain could only draw 0-0 with Cape Verde in its opening World Cup game. That will go down as one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history, as the reigning European champion failed to beat a small Atlantic Ocean archipelago. However, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia also drew, leaving all four teams level on one point apiece in Group H.
• Spain vs Saudi Arabia (June 21, Atlanta): Spain eased to a 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice in the first half, and Lamine Yamal was also on target during this routine victory for La Roja.
• Spain vs Uruguay (June 26, Guadalajara): Spain beat Uruguay 1-0 in its group stage closer, courtesy of Álex Baena’s goal.

Spain won Group H, so it faced Austria in the Round of 32. La Roja won that game 3-0, and they then beat Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16. They beat Belgium in the quarterfinals, so the Spaniards then beat France 2-0 in the semifinals. They will now face either England or France in the final.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: Lamine Yamal could shine on the biggest stage

Spain’s greatest strength is their midfield, but they also have two elite wingers, a solid defense, and a reliable goalkeeper. Here are the players who could decide Spain’s World Cup:

• Lamine Yamal: Barcelona’s 18-year-old winger broke out at Euro 2024 and has been even better this season — 15 goals and 11 assists in 28 La Liga matches, plus six goals and four assists in the Champions League. He’s already got 47 career goals for Barcelona and is the heir apparent to Lionel Messi. Yamal could become the defining star of this World Cup. He suffered a hamstring injury in Barcelona’s game against Celta Vigo towards the end of April, and he missed the rest of the season. Yamal wasn’t fit enough to start Spain’s opener against Cape Verde, but he came off the bench for the final 20 minutes. He then started against Saudi Arabia on Matchday 2 and scored in the opening 10 minutes of the game, and he now looks back to full fitness.
• Rodri: The Manchester City won the Ballon d’Or (world’s best player award) after leading Spain to glory at Euro 2024. Rodri now looks back to his best after recovering from an ACL injury. He played regularly for Man City during the second half of the 2025/26 season, and he has been excellent for Spain so far at this tournament.
• Pedri: Barcelona’s creative heartbeat recorded two goals and nine assists in 29 La Liga appearances this season and remains one of the most elegant midfielders in world soccer. He is quietly pulling the strings in Spain’s midfield at this summer’s World Cup.
• Mikel Merino: The Arsenal midfielder proved his worth to Spain by coming off the bench to score the winner against Portugal in the Round of 16. He then repeated the feat against Belgium in the quarterfinals. Merino was Spain’s top scorer during the World Cup qualifying campaign, and he now looks back to his best after missing the second half of the 2025/26 season with an injury.
• Mikel Oyarzabal: Spain’s striker has scored five goals in seven games at this tournament. He faced competition from Ferran Torres for a place in the starting lineup, but he has rewarded the manager’s faith in him by scoring crucial goals, including a well-taken penalty against France in the semifinals.

Related markets for Spain

Spain’s outright winner contract settles at $1 if they lift the trophy, or resolves to “no” immediately upon elimination. Kalshi uses FIFA as its settlement source; Polymarket uses FIFA and ESPN. Final settlement date: July 20, 2026.

The outright winner isn’t the only way to take a position on Spain at the World Cup. Here are some of the other contracts available:

• Reach a specific round: Kalshi and Polymarket were offering separate contracts on which stage Spain would reach.
• Golden Boot: A bet on which player will score the most goals at the World Cup. Available across nearly all prediction markets and sportsbooks. Oyarzabal is an outside contender, though traditional strikers like Mbáppe and Kane lead this market.
• Winning continent: Available on Polymarket. A bet on whether the winning country comes from Europe, South America, or another confederation. Europe is the heavy favorite.

Where to bet on Spain at the World Cup

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two main prediction markets offering World Cup contracts right now. Both carry the outright winner contracts, advancement contracts, stage of elimination contracts, and player award contracts. You’ll also find a huge array of markets on each game – moneylines, spreads, totals, props, team to advance, and much more.

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