2026 World Cup Odds: France Favorite to Win
France is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at prediction markets with +495 odds or 16.8% implied probability. Spain trades at +546 (15.5%) and England at +804 (11.1%). The World Cup winner contract has generated $333.0M in trading volume, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Settlement is on July 20, 2026—one day after the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.Our 2026 FIFA World Cup odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates
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FIFA World Cup Tournament Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
FRFrance
Vol $14.6M
Spread 1.2%
Agg
16.8%↑ +5.9%
O
18.0%
G
17.5%
K
17.1%
P
16.8%
SPSpain
Vol $11.9M
Spread 3.6%
Agg
15.5%↓ -0.3%
O
19.0%
K
16.7%
G
16.5%
P
15.5%
ENEngland
Vol $7.8M
Spread 3.9%
Agg
11.1%↓ -1.8%
O
15.0%
K
11.6%
G
11.5%
P
11.1%
ARArgentina
Vol $8.2M
Spread 3.2%
Agg
8.9%↓ -1.2%
O
12.0%
K
9.6%
G
9.5%
P
8.9%
BRBrazil
Vol $8.8M
Spread 4.5%
Agg
8.6%↓ -0.1%
O
13.0%
K
9.3%
G
9.0%
P
8.6%
POPortugal
Vol $8.2M
Spread 3.5%
Agg
7.8%↑ +1.0%
O
11.0%
K
7.9%
P
7.8%
G
7.5%
GEGermany
Vol $7.6M
Spread 3.8%
Agg
5.3%↓ -0.1%
O
9.0%
K
5.7%
G
5.5%
P
5.3%
NINigeria
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
4.0%— +0.0%
O
4.0%
NENetherlands
Vol $7.0M
Spread 4.0%
Agg
3.4%↑ +0.1%
O
7.0%
K
3.4%
P
3.4%
G
3.0%
NONorway
Vol $6.3M
Spread 4.0%
Agg
2.2%↓ -1.0%
O
6.0%
P
2.3%
K
2.2%
G
2.0%
JAJapan
Vol $8.8M
Spread 3.5%
Agg
2.1%↑ +0.7%
O
5.0%
P
2.2%
K
1.6%
G
1.5%
BEBelgium
Vol $7.4M
Spread 3.4%
Agg
2.1%↑ +0.2%
O
5.0%
P
2.1%
K
1.7%
COColombia
Vol $6.4M
Spread 3.4%
Agg
1.7%↑ +0.1%
O
5.0%
K
2.1%
G
2.0%
P
1.7%
MOMorocco
Vol $7.0M
Spread 2.7%
Agg
1.6%— +0.0%
O
4.0%
P
1.7%
G
1.5%
K
1.4%
USUSA
Vol $19.6M
Spread 3.8%
Agg
1.3%↓ -0.4%
O
5.0%
K
1.5%
G
1.5%
P
1.3%
MEMexico
Vol $8.9M
Spread 4.0%
Agg
1.1%↓ -0.1%
O
5.0%
K
1.2%
P
1.1%
URUruguay
Vol $7.4M
Spread 3.1%
Agg
1.1%↓ -0.5%
O
4.0%
P
1.1%
K
0.9%
SWSwitzerland
Vol $5.8M
Spread 3.2%
Agg
0.9%↑ +0.2%
O
4.0%
P
1.0%
K
0.8%
CRCroatia
Vol $6.3M
Spread 2.2%
Agg
0.9%↓ -0.4%
O
3.0%
K
0.9%
P
0.9%
ECEcuador
Vol $8.6M
Spread 2.3%
Agg
0.8%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
G
1.5%
K
0.8%
P
0.8%
TUTurkey
Vol $3.2K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%↑ +0.2%
K
0.8%
SESenegal
Vol $5.9M
Spread 2.4%
Agg
0.7%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
K
0.8%
P
0.7%
AUAustria
Vol $5.4M
Spread 2.7%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.4%
CACanada
Vol $5.0M
Spread 2.5%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.5%
SWSweden
Vol $7.0K
Spread 2.5%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
K
0.5%
PAParaguay
Vol $6.7M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.4%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.4%
K
0.3%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $6.8M
Spread 3.9%
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.1%
O
4.0%
P
0.4%
K
0.2%
SKSouth Korea
Vol $6.8M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.4%
K
0.2%
SCScotland
Vol $6.4M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.4%
K
0.3%
EGEgypt
Vol $7.6M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.4%
K
0.2%
GHGhana
Vol $7.8M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.2%
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $5.6M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.1%
SASouth Africa
Vol $5.8M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.2%
TUTunisia
Vol $6.8M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.1%
ALAlgeria
Vol $6.1M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.1%
AUAustralia
Vol $12.4M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.2%
CVCape Verde
Vol $8.8M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
CUCuracao
Vol $18.2M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
HAHaiti
Vol $6.7M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
JOJordan
Vol $5.0M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
NZNew Zealand
Vol $9.0M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
QAQatar
Vol $7.3M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
UZUzbekistan
Vol $7.9M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
IRIran
Vol $6.2M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
PAPanama
Vol $2.0K
Spread 2.9%
Agg
0.1%↓ -0.5%
O
3.0%
K
0.1%
DEDenmark
Vol $106.9K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.5%
K
0.0%
IRIreland
Vol $25.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.5%
K
0.0%
ITItaly
Vol $1.9M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.6%
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
NINorthern Ireland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.4%
K
0.0%
POPoland
Vol $24.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.5%
K
0.0%
RORomania
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.5%
K
0.0%
UKUkraine
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.5%
K
0.0%
WAWales
Vol $98.9K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.4%
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France | 16.8% ↑ +5.9% | 1.2% | $14.6M |
Kalshi
17.1%
|
Polymarket
16.8%
|
Gemini
17.5% |
OG
18.0% |
SP Spain | 15.5% ↓ -0.3% | 3.6% | $11.9M |
Kalshi
16.7%
|
Polymarket
15.5%
|
Gemini
16.5% |
OG
19.0% |
EN England | 11.1% ↓ -1.8% | 3.9% | $7.8M |
Kalshi
11.6%
|
Polymarket
11.1%
|
Gemini
11.5% |
OG
15.0% |
AR Argentina | 8.9% ↓ -1.2% | 3.2% | $8.2M |
Kalshi
9.6%
|
Polymarket
8.9%
|
Gemini
9.5% |
OG
12.0% |
BR Brazil | 8.6% ↓ -0.1% | 4.5% | $8.8M |
Kalshi
9.3%
|
Polymarket
8.6%
|
Gemini
9.0% |
OG
13.0% |
PO Portugal | 7.8% ↑ +1.0% | 3.5% | $8.2M |
Kalshi
7.9%
|
Polymarket
7.8%
|
Gemini
7.5% |
OG
11.0% |
GE Germany | 5.3% ↓ -0.1% | 3.8% | $7.6M |
Kalshi
5.7%
|
Polymarket
5.3%
|
Gemini
5.5% |
OG
9.0% |
NI Nigeria | 4.0% — +0.0% | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
4.0% |
NE Netherlands | 3.4% ↑ +0.1% | 4.0% | $7.0M |
Kalshi
3.4%
|
Polymarket
3.4%
|
Gemini
3.0% |
OG
7.0% |
NO Norway | 2.2% ↓ -1.0% | 4.0% | $6.3M |
Kalshi
2.2%
|
Polymarket
2.3%
|
Gemini
2.0% |
OG
6.0% |
JA Japan | 2.1% ↑ +0.7% | 3.5% | $8.8M |
Kalshi
1.6%
|
Polymarket
2.2%
|
Gemini
1.5% |
OG
5.0% |
BE Belgium | 2.1% ↑ +0.2% | 3.4% | $7.4M |
Kalshi
1.7%
|
Polymarket
2.1%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
5.0% |
CO Colombia | 1.7% ↑ +0.1% | 3.4% | $6.4M |
Kalshi
2.1%
|
Polymarket
1.7%
|
Gemini
2.0% |
OG
5.0% |
MO Morocco | 1.6% — +0.0% | 2.7% | $7.0M |
Kalshi
1.4%
|
Polymarket
1.7%
|
Gemini
1.5% |
OG
4.0% |
US USA | 1.3% ↓ -0.4% | 3.8% | $19.6M |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Polymarket
1.3%
|
Gemini
1.5% |
OG
5.0% |
ME Mexico | 1.1% ↓ -0.1% | 4.0% | $8.9M |
Kalshi
1.2%
|
Polymarket
1.1%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
5.0% |
UR Uruguay | 1.1% ↓ -0.5% | 3.1% | $7.4M |
Kalshi
0.9%
|
Polymarket
1.1%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
4.0% |
SW Switzerland | 0.9% ↑ +0.2% | 3.2% | $5.8M |
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
1.0%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
4.0% |
CR Croatia | 0.9% ↓ -0.4% | 2.2% | $6.3M |
Kalshi
0.9%
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
EC Ecuador | 0.8% ↓ -0.1% | 2.3% | $8.6M |
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
0.8%
|
Gemini
1.5% |
OG
3.0% |
TU Turkey | 0.8% ↑ +0.2% | — | $3.2K |
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
SE Senegal | 0.7% ↓ -0.1% | 2.4% | $5.9M |
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
AU Austria | 0.5% — +0.0% | 2.7% | $5.4M |
Kalshi
0.4%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
CA Canada | 0.5% — +0.0% | 2.5% | $5.0M |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
SW Sweden | 0.5% — +0.0% | 2.5% | $7.0K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
PA Paraguay | 0.4% — +0.0% | 2.8% | $6.7M |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
IC Ivory Coast | 0.4% ↓ -0.1% | 3.9% | $6.8M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
4.0% |
SK South Korea | 0.3% ↓ -0.1% | 2.8% | $6.8M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
SC Scotland | 0.3% — +0.0% | 2.8% | $6.4M |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
EG Egypt | 0.3% — +0.0% | 2.8% | $7.6M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
GH Ghana | 0.3% — +0.0% | 2.8% | $7.8M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
SA Saudi Arabia | 0.3% ↓ -0.1% | 2.9% | $5.6M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
SA South Africa | 0.3% — +0.0% | 2.8% | $5.8M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
TU Tunisia | 0.3% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $6.8M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
AL Algeria | 0.2% ↓ -0.1% | 2.9% | $6.1M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
AU Australia | 0.2% ↓ -0.1% | 2.8% | $12.4M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
CV Cape Verde | 0.2% ↓ -0.1% | 2.9% | $8.8M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
CU Curacao | 0.2% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $18.2M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
HA Haiti | 0.2% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $6.7M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
JO Jordan | 0.2% ↓ -0.1% | 2.9% | $5.0M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
NZ New Zealand | 0.2% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $9.0M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
QA Qatar | 0.2% ↓ -0.1% | 2.9% | $7.3M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
UZ Uzbekistan | 0.2% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $7.9M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
IR Iran | 0.1% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $6.2M |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
PA Panama | 0.1% ↓ -0.5% | 2.9% | $2.0K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
3.0% |
DE Denmark | 0.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $106.9K |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
IR Ireland | 0.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $25.0K |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
IT Italy | 0.0% ↓ -2.6% | 0.0% | $1.9M |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
0.0%
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
NI Northern Ireland | 0.0% ↓ -0.4% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
PO Poland | 0.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $24.0K |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
RO Romania | 0.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
UK Ukraine | 0.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
WA Wales | 0.0% ↓ -0.4% | — | $98.9K |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
— |
OG
— |
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP Spain |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 15.5¢ | Sell @ K 16.6¢ | +1.10% | +0.93% |
No | |
BR Brazil |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 8.6¢ | Sell @ K 9.2¢ | +0.60% | +0.51% |
No | |
AR Argentina |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 8.9¢ | Sell @ K 9.5¢ | +0.60% | +0.50% |
No | |
JA Japan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.7¢ | Sell @ P 2.1¢ | +0.40% | +0.33% |
No | |
GE Germany |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 5.3¢ | Sell @ K 5.6¢ | +0.30% | +0.23% |
No | |
BE Belgium |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.7¢ | Sell @ P 2¢ | +0.30% | +0.23% |
No | |
CO Colombia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.7¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.30% | +0.23% |
No | |
EN England |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 11.1¢ | Sell @ K 11.4¢ | +0.30% | +0.19% |
No | |
MO Morocco |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.4¢ | Sell @ P 1.6¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
US USA |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.3¢ | Sell @ K 1.4¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
AU Austria |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.4¢ | Sell @ P 0.5¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.4¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
IC Ivory Coast |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
SK South Korea |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
EG Egypt |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
SA Saudi Arabia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
TU Tunisia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
NO Norway |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 2.2¢ | Sell @ P 2.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
ME Mexico |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.1¢ | Sell @ K 1.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SE Senegal |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.7¢ | Sell @ K 0.7¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SC Scotland |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
GH Ghana |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SA South Africa |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
AL Algeria |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
AU Australia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CV Cape Verde |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CU Curacao |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
HA Haiti |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
JO Jordan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
NZ New Zealand |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
QA Qatar |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
UR Uruguay |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SW Switzerland |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.9¢ | Sell @ P 0.9¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
PO Portugal |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 7.8¢ | Sell @ K 7.8¢ | +0.00% | -0.08% |
No | |
IT Italy |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.1¢ | Sell @ K 0¢ | -0.10% | -0.10% |
No | |
EC Ecuador |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.8¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
CA Canada |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.6¢ | Sell @ P 0.5¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
IR Iran |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
CR Croatia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.9¢ | Sell @ K 0.7¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
NE Netherlands |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 3.5¢ | Sell @ P 3.3¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
FR France |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 16.9¢ | Sell @ K 16.6¢ | -0.30% | -0.47% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France |
NO Norway |
Gemini | A 17.5% | B 2.0% | +15.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
CO Colombia |
Gemini | A 17.5% | B 2.0% | +15.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
CO Colombia |
Kalshi | A 17.1% | B 2.1% | +14.95% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NO Norway |
Kalshi | A 17.1% | B 2.2% | +14.90% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
JA Japan |
Polymarket | A 16.8% | B 2.2% | +14.65% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
CO Colombia |
Kalshi | A 16.7% | B 2.1% | +14.55% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NO Norway |
Polymarket | A 16.8% | B 2.3% | +14.55% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NO Norway |
Kalshi | A 16.7% | B 2.2% | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NO Norway |
Gemini | A 16.5% | B 2.0% | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
CO Colombia |
Gemini | A 16.5% | B 2.0% | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NE Netherlands |
Gemini | A 17.5% | B 3.0% | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NE Netherlands |
Kalshi | A 17.1% | B 3.4% | +13.70% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NE Netherlands |
Gemini | A 16.5% | B 3.0% | +13.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NE Netherlands |
Polymarket | A 16.8% | B 3.4% | +13.45% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NE Netherlands |
Kalshi | A 16.7% | B 3.4% | +13.30% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
JA Japan |
Polymarket | A 15.5% | B 2.2% | +13.30% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NO Norway |
Polymarket | A 15.5% | B 2.3% | +13.20% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NE Netherlands |
Polymarket | A 15.5% | B 3.4% | +12.10% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
GE Germany |
Gemini | A 17.5% | B 5.5% | +12.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
GE Germany |
Polymarket | A 16.8% | B 5.3% | +11.55% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
GE Germany |
Kalshi | A 17.1% | B 5.7% | +11.35% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
GE Germany |
Gemini | A 16.5% | B 5.5% | +11.00% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
GE Germany |
Kalshi | A 16.7% | B 5.7% | +10.95% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
GE Germany |
Polymarket | A 15.5% | B 5.3% | +10.20% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
PO Portugal |
Gemini | A 17.5% | B 7.5% | +10.00% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
NO Norway |
Gemini | A 11.5% | B 2.0% | +9.50% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
CO Colombia |
Gemini | A 11.5% | B 2.0% | +9.50% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
CO Colombia |
Kalshi | A 11.6% | B 2.1% | +9.45% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
NO Norway |
Kalshi | A 11.6% | B 2.2% | +9.40% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
PO Portugal |
Kalshi | A 17.1% | B 7.9% | +9.15% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals Qualifier Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SPSpain
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
68.0%↓ -3.0%
K
68.0%
ENEngland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
66.5%↓ -5.0%
K
66.5%
FRFrance
Vol $195
Spread —
Agg
63.0%↓ -4.0%
K
63.0%
NENetherlands
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
62.0%↑ +29.5%
K
62.0%
ARArgentina
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
57.5%↓ -7.0%
K
57.5%
BRBrazil
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
54.5%↓ -4.0%
K
54.5%
BEBelgium
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
54.0%↑ +26.0%
K
54.0%
GEGermany
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
48.5%↓ -11.5%
K
48.5%
JAJapan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
48.0%↑ +1.0%
K
48.0%
ECEcuador
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
47.0%↑ +20.0%
K
47.0%
POPortugal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
46.5%↓ -6.5%
K
46.5%
NONorway
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
35.0%↓ -0.5%
K
35.0%
MEMexico
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
32.0%↑ +2.0%
K
32.0%
MOMorocco
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
31.0%↓ -3.5%
K
31.0%
COColombia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
30.5%↓ -1.0%
K
30.5%
USUSA
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
27.0%↑ +7.0%
K
27.0%
SWSweden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
26.5%↓ -14.0%
K
26.5%
URUruguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
26.5%↓ -4.5%
K
26.5%
CRCroatia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
26.0%↓ -1.5%
K
26.0%
TUTurkiye
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
26.0%↓ -5.5%
K
26.0%
SWSwitzerland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
25.0%↓ -0.5%
K
25.0%
CACanada
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
23.0%↑ +13.5%
K
23.0%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
20.5%↓ -19.0%
K
20.5%
GHGhana
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
20.0%↓ -22.5%
K
20.0%
SESenegal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
18.5%↓ -1.5%
K
18.5%
CZCzechia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
18.0%↓ -27.0%
K
18.0%
PAPanama
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
16.0%↓ -2.5%
K
16.0%
SCScotland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
15.0%↓ -21.5%
K
15.0%
AUAustralia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
13.5%↓ -5.0%
K
13.5%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↓ -14.0%
K
11.0%
EGEgypt
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↑ +4.5%
K
11.0%
AUAustria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
10.5%↑ +2.5%
K
10.5%
NZNew Zealand
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
10.5%↓ -32.0%
K
10.5%
SASouth Africa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
10.5%↓ -32.0%
K
10.5%
ALAlgeria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.5%↑ +0.5%
K
9.5%
CDCongo DR
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.5%↓ -25.5%
K
9.5%
PAParaguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.0%— +0.0%
K
9.0%
QAQatar
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.0%↓ -11.0%
K
9.0%
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.0%↓ -9.0%
K
9.0%
UZUzbekistan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.0%↓ -23.5%
K
9.0%
KRKorea Republic
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.5%↓ -7.0%
K
8.5%
TUTunisia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.0%↓ -34.5%
K
8.0%
CVCape Verde
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -30.0%
K
7.5%
CUCuracao
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -27.5%
K
7.5%
IRIraq
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -35.0%
K
7.5%
HAHaiti
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -36.0%
K
6.5%
IIIR Iran
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.0%— +0.0%
K
5.0%
JOJordan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%— +0.0%
K
3.5%
ALAlbania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
BOBolivia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DEDenmark
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
IRIreland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
I2Ireland - 2
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
ITItaly
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
JAJamaica
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
KOKosovo
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NCNew Caledonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NMNorth Macedonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
POPoland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
RORomania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SLSlovakia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SUSuriname
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
UKUkraine
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
WAWales
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP Spain | 68.0% ↓ -3.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
68.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
EN England | 66.5% ↓ -5.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
66.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
FR France | 63.0% ↓ -4.0% | — | $195 |
Kalshi
63.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
NE Netherlands | 62.0% ↑ +29.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
62.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AR Argentina | 57.5% ↓ -7.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
57.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BR Brazil | 54.5% ↓ -4.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
54.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BE Belgium | 54.0% ↑ +26.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
54.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
GE Germany | 48.5% ↓ -11.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
48.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Japan | 48.0% ↑ +1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
48.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
EC Ecuador | 47.0% ↑ +20.0% | — | $10 |
Kalshi
47.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PO Portugal | 46.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
46.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NO Norway | 35.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
35.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
ME Mexico | 32.0% ↑ +2.0% | — | $10 |
Kalshi
32.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
MO Morocco | 31.0% ↓ -3.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
31.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CO Colombia | 30.5% ↓ -1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
30.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
US USA | 27.0% ↑ +7.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
27.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Sweden | 26.5% ↓ -14.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
UR Uruguay | 26.5% ↓ -4.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CR Croatia | 26.0% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
26.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
TU Turkiye | 26.0% ↓ -5.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
26.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Switzerland | 25.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
25.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CA Canada | 23.0% ↑ +13.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
23.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
IC Ivory Coast | 20.5% ↓ -19.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
20.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
GH Ghana | 20.0% ↓ -22.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
20.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SE Senegal | 18.5% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CZ Czechia | 18.0% ↓ -27.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
18.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Panama | 16.0% ↓ -2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
16.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SC Scotland | 15.0% ↓ -21.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
15.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Australia | 13.5% ↓ -5.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
13.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 11.0% ↓ -14.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
EG Egypt | 11.0% ↑ +4.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Austria | 10.5% ↑ +2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
10.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NZ New Zealand | 10.5% ↓ -32.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
10.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SA South Africa | 10.5% ↓ -32.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
10.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Algeria | 9.5% ↑ +0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CD Congo DR | 9.5% ↓ -25.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Paraguay | 9.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
QA Qatar | 9.0% ↓ -11.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SA Saudi Arabia | 9.0% ↓ -9.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
UZ Uzbekistan | 9.0% ↓ -23.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
KR Korea Republic | 8.5% ↓ -7.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
TU Tunisia | 8.0% ↓ -34.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CV Cape Verde | 7.5% ↓ -30.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CU Curacao | 7.5% ↓ -27.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
IR Iraq | 7.5% ↓ -35.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
HA Haiti | 6.5% ↓ -36.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
II IR Iran | 5.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
JO Jordan | 3.5% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Albania | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
BO Bolivia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
DE Denmark | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
IR Ireland | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
I2 Ireland - 2 | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
IT Italy | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Jamaica | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
KO Kosovo | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
NC New Caledonia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
NM North Macedonia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
PO Poland | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
RO Romania | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SL Slovakia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SU Suriname | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
UK Ukraine | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
WA Wales | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
FIFA World Cup Final Qualifier Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SPSpain
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
36.0%↓ -4.5%
K
36.0%
ARArgentina
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
25.0%↑ +1.0%
K
25.0%
POPortugal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
21.0%↑ +1.5%
K
21.0%
FRFrance
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
20.5%↓ -7.5%
K
20.5%
GEGermany
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
17.5%↓ -5.5%
K
17.5%
ENEngland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
15.5%↓ -19.0%
K
15.5%
BRBrazil
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
14.0%↓ -13.0%
K
14.0%
NONorway
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
12.0%↑ +1.0%
K
12.0%
SESenegal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.5%↓ -22.0%
K
11.5%
COColombia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↓ -1.0%
K
11.0%
JAJapan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↓ -3.0%
K
11.0%
PAPanama
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↓ -24.0%
K
11.0%
SWSweden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↓ -13.5%
K
11.0%
TUTurkiye
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
11.0%↓ -0.5%
K
11.0%
MOMorocco
Vol $39
Spread —
Agg
9.0%— +0.0%
K
9.0%
BEBelgium
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.5%↓ -8.0%
K
8.5%
MEMexico
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.5%↓ -1.5%
K
8.5%
NENetherlands
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.5%↑ +2.5%
K
8.5%
PAParaguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.0%↓ -22.0%
K
8.0%
CZCzechia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -4.0%
K
7.5%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.0%↓ -27.5%
K
7.0%
SCScotland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.0%↓ -28.0%
K
7.0%
CACanada
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -7.5%
K
6.5%
CDCongo DR
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -3.5%
K
6.5%
GHGhana
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -6.0%
K
6.5%
USUSA
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -1.5%
K
6.5%
UZUzbekistan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -28.5%
K
6.5%
AUAustralia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.0%↓ -29.0%
K
6.0%
EGEgypt
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.0%↓ -26.5%
K
6.0%
IRIraq
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.5%↓ -2.0%
K
5.5%
JOJordan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.5%↓ -29.5%
K
5.5%
TUTunisia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.5%↓ -29.5%
K
5.5%
ALAlgeria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.0%↓ -18.5%
K
5.0%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.0%↓ -22.0%
K
5.0%
NZNew Zealand
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.5%↓ -29.0%
K
4.5%
QAQatar
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.5%↓ -29.0%
K
4.5%
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.5%↓ -17.0%
K
4.5%
CRCroatia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -27.0%
K
4.0%
CVCape Verde
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -1.5%
K
3.5%
ECEcuador
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -11.0%
K
3.5%
SWSwitzerland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -6.5%
K
3.5%
AUAustria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.0%↓ -32.0%
K
3.0%
URUruguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.0%↓ -25.5%
K
3.0%
HAHaiti
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -23.0%
K
2.5%
IIIR Iran
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -20.0%
K
2.5%
CUCuracao
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -23.5%
K
2.0%
KRKorea Republic
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -10.5%
K
2.0%
SASouth Africa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -9.5%
K
2.0%
ALAlbania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
BOBolivia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DEDenmark
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
IRIreland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
I2Ireland - 2
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
ITItaly
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
JAJamaica
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
KOKosovo
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NCNew Caledonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NMNorth Macedonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
POPoland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
RORomania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SLSlovakia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SUSuriname
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
UKUkraine
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
WAWales
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP Spain | 36.0% ↓ -4.5% | — | $10 |
Kalshi
36.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AR Argentina | 25.0% ↑ +1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
25.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PO Portugal | 21.0% ↑ +1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
21.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
FR France | 20.5% ↓ -7.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
20.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
GE Germany | 17.5% ↓ -5.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
EN England | 15.5% ↓ -19.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
15.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BR Brazil | 14.0% ↓ -13.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
14.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
NO Norway | 12.0% ↑ +1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
12.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SE Senegal | 11.5% ↓ -22.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CO Colombia | 11.0% ↓ -1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Japan | 11.0% ↓ -3.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Panama | 11.0% ↓ -24.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Sweden | 11.0% ↓ -13.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
TU Turkiye | 11.0% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
MO Morocco | 9.0% — +0.0% | — | $39 |
Kalshi
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
BE Belgium | 8.5% ↓ -8.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
ME Mexico | 8.5% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NE Netherlands | 8.5% ↑ +2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Paraguay | 8.0% ↓ -22.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CZ Czechia | 7.5% ↓ -4.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
IC Ivory Coast | 7.0% ↓ -27.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SC Scotland | 7.0% ↓ -28.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CA Canada | 6.5% ↓ -7.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CD Congo DR | 6.5% ↓ -3.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
GH Ghana | 6.5% ↓ -6.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
US USA | 6.5% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
UZ Uzbekistan | 6.5% ↓ -28.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Australia | 6.0% ↓ -29.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
EG Egypt | 6.0% ↓ -26.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
IR Iraq | 5.5% ↓ -2.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
JO Jordan | 5.5% ↓ -29.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
TU Tunisia | 5.5% ↓ -29.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Algeria | 5.0% ↓ -18.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 5.0% ↓ -22.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
NZ New Zealand | 4.5% ↓ -29.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
QA Qatar | 4.5% ↓ -29.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SA Saudi Arabia | 4.5% ↓ -17.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CR Croatia | 4.0% ↓ -27.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CV Cape Verde | 3.5% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
EC Ecuador | 3.5% ↓ -11.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Switzerland | 3.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Austria | 3.0% ↓ -32.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
UR Uruguay | 3.0% ↓ -25.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
HA Haiti | 2.5% ↓ -23.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
II IR Iran | 2.5% ↓ -20.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CU Curacao | 2.0% ↓ -23.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
KR Korea Republic | 2.0% ↓ -10.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SA South Africa | 2.0% ↓ -9.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Albania | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
BO Bolivia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
DE Denmark | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
IR Ireland | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
I2 Ireland - 2 | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
IT Italy | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Jamaica | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
KO Kosovo | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
NC New Caledonia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
NM North Macedonia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
PO Poland | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
RO Romania | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SL Slovakia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SU Suriname | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
UK Ukraine | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
WA Wales | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
Martin Green
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
Weekly FIFA World Cup predictions recap
World Cup prediction markets have expanded significantly in recent weeks. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have added new contract types, and several teams saw notable price movement in the outright winner market. Here’s what changed since last week and events that likely impacted market turnover.
France becomes joint-favorite on Polymarket. France and Spain are now the joint-favorites to win the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket. Traders are growing increasingly bullish on France’s chances of lifting the trophy. Polymarket traders now give Les Bleus a 16.1% chance of winning the World Cup, up from 11.1% three weeks ago. Spain is still the narrow favorite on Kalshi, but most of the volume has flowed through Polymarket, so the teams are now neck-and-neck at 16.1% apiece in the aggregated pricing.
Trader shrug off Ekitike’s injury. France striker Hugo Ekitike will miss the World Cup after rupturing his Achilles tendon during Liverpool’s Champions League defeat to PSG. He was a major contender to start up front for Les Bleus, but manager Didier Deschamps could now shuffle his attack. We’re likely to see Kylian Mbappé in a central role, possibly flanked by Ousmane Dembélé and Desiré Doué. For that reason, Mbappé is now the heavy favorite to win the World Cup Golden Boot.
Germany forward Gnabry injured. Germany could be without winger Serge Gnabry at the World Cup. His club, Bayern Munich, announced that he would be out for “an extended period” after he suffered a torn adductor in his right thigh. That’s a blow, as he has been in fine form for Bayern in 2026, and he scored in Germany’s 4-3 win against Switzerland last month. Germany’s chances of winning the World Cup have now dropped to 5.3% on prediction markets.
New markets on Kalshi. You can now make predictions on which players will make the England, France, and Spain World Cup squads at Kalshi. The site launched contracts on Brazil’s squad selection a few weeks ago, and it has now added markets on the three big European teams. PSG winger Bradley Barcola has a 48% chance of making the France squad, while Barcelona defender Jules Kounde is priced at 46%. Everton’s James Gardner and Tottenham’s Djed Spence are 50/50 to make the England squad, while Alex Remiro and Yeremy Pino are hopeful of representing Spain.
Which country is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?
Spain is the favorite to win the World Cup after storming to the top of the FIFA world rankings. La Roja face competition from elite European and South American rivals, while co-hosts USA, Mexico, and Canada are also bidding to cause an upset. The majority of World Cup outright volume is currently flowing through Polymarket — Argentina’s $77.1K in Polymarket volume dwarfs its $118 on Kalshi, and the pattern holds across every team on the board. That’s likely to shift as Kalshi winds down from March Madness and ramps up its World Cup coverage in the months ahead.
| Rank | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.2% | H (Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia) |
| 2 | England | 12.5% | 13.3% | 0.8% | K (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) |
| 3 | France | 11.5% | 11.1% | 0.5% | I (Senegal, Norway, Playoff 2) |
| 4 | Argentina | 9.5% | 10.7% | 1.2% | L (Austria, Algeria, Jordan) |
| 5 | Brazil | 9.5% | 8.7% | 0.8% | C (Morocco, Scotland, Haiti) |
| 6 | Portugal | 8.5% | 6.8% | 1.8% | J (Colombia, Uzbekistan, Playoff 1) |
| 7 | Germany | 5.5% | 5.7% | 0.2% | E (Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao) |
| 8 | Netherlands | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.3% | F (Japan, Tunisia, Playoff B) |
| 9 | Norway | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | I (France, Senegal, Playoff 2) |
| 10 | USA | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | D (Paraguay, Australia, Playoff C) |
| 11 | Italy | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | B (Canada, Switzerland, Qatar) — if they qualify via UEFA playoffs |
| 12 | Mexico | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | A (South Korea, South Africa, Playoff D) |
| 13 | Canada | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | G (Switzerland, Qatar, Playoff A) |
Spain’s odds to win the World Cup
Spain is the narrow favorite to win the World Cup this summer. La Roja’s aggregated probability has fallen to 16.1%, down from 17.3% a week ago. That leaves them level with France on Polymarket, where most of the volume has flowed through, but Spain is still the slight favorite with traders on Kalshi.
La Roja have a world-class midfield featuring Rodri and Pedri, while Lamine Yamal is a sensational winger. The Spaniards also drew a favorable group, and they have a pretty clear path to the World Cup semifinals. However, they could then face France in the final four, which would be a blockbuster clash.
The biggest concern heading into the summer is squad health. Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, and Pablo Barrios are all injured, and they weren’t included in Spain’s squad for the games against Serbia and Egypt in March.
Yet former Ballon d’Or winner Rodri is back on the pitch for Man City, and he starred in Spain’s 3-0 win against Serbia in a friendly at the end of March. Star player Lamine Yamal is in top form for Barcelona too, and Mikel Oyarzabal has emerged as a reliable source of goals for La Roja. Ruiz and Merino should recover in time for the World Cup, but the depth of the injury list could test Spain’s squad depth at a tournament that demands eight matches to lift the trophy.
View: Spain’s odds to win Group H
France’s odds to win
France is now the joint-favorite to win the World Cup on Polymarket, with a 16.1% chance of lifting the trophy. Les Bleus were priced at 11.1% just two weeks ago, but traders have now grown far more bullish on their chances of success. They reminded everyone of their quality by beating Brazil and Colombia during the international break. France is now No. 1 in the FIFA world rankings, ahead of Spain, Argentina, and England.
Kalshi has Les Bleus at 16.7%, compared to 16.1% on Polymarket. That’s a modest spread, but France is surging with momentum on both platforms. The team’s key players are all in fine form, and they appear to be peaking at the right time. Kylian Mbappé is the top scorer in La Liga and the Champions League this season, and he has the quality to put any team in the world to the sword. Michael Olise continues to perform well at club level for Bayern Munich, as does Desiré Doué at PSG, while Ousmane Dembélé also looks back to his best after returning to action following a hamstring injury. Striker Hugo Ekitike recently suffered an injury, which will mean he misses the tournament, but traders shrugged that off, as France is stacked with attacking talent.
Les Bleus won the World Cup in 2018 and finished runners-up in 2022 after losing to Argentina on penalties, so the pedigree is there. The supporting cast looks strong, with Doué emerging alongside Olise, while William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano are solid in defense. Les Bleus were outplayed by Spain at Euro 2024, but their sheer power and physicality should give them an excellent chance of success this summer.
View: France’s odds to win Group I
England’s odds to win
England sits third after a couple of disappointing performances. The Three Lions drew 1-1 with Uruguay and then lost 1-0 to Japan in a pair of friendlies at the end of March. Manager Thomas Tuchel rested his key players for those games, and he opted for experimental lineups. However, the performances underscored England’s reliance on captain Harry Kane. He missed both games, and the team looked toothless in attack. The Three Lions are now trading at 11.1% with Polymarket and 11.6% with Kalshi. Traders may be pricing in the possibility of England falling apart if Kane suffers an injury.
England suffered a series of heartbreaking defeats at major tournaments under Gareth Southgate, finishing runners-up at the last two European Championships and losing to France in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals. Thomas Tuchel replaced Southgate as England manager in January 2025, and he has a 100% winning record in competitive matches so far. Tuchel, who signed a contract extension in February, previously won the Champions League with Chelsea, and he’s regarded as an astute tactician. The defense is their Achilles’ heel, but England’s midfield is superb, and Kane is arguably the world’s greatest goalscorer.
Argentina’s odds to win
Argentina is the now the fourth most likely team to win the World Cup. Traders grew more bearish on La Albiceleste’s chances of defending the title they won four years ago following a limp performance in a friendly against Mauritania in March. Argentina won 2-1, but they looked sloppy in defense, and they lacked cutting edge in attack. They then beat Zambia 5-0 a few days later, but traders remain unconvinced.
Kalshi now gives Argentina a 9.6% chance of winning the World Cup, and La Albiceleste have dropped to 8.9% on Polymarket. Most of the outright volume has flowed through Polymarket, so that leaves Argentina well behind Spain, France, and England. On a brighter note, star player Lionel Messi now has a 91% chance of taking part in the tournament, according to Kalshi, which should give the team a major boost. Argentina’s supporting cast is strong too, featuring the likes of Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, and Alexis Mac Allister. They will be sweating on Messi’s fitness, but these players are accustomed to winning major trophies, and that experience could be vital this summer.
Host nations: odds on North America
The USA, Canada, and Mexico are the co-hosts of this tournament, so all three teams qualified automatically. We’ve assessed their key strengths and weaknesses.
USA’s odds to win
The USMNT trades at 1.7% on Kalshi and 1.2% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright — long odds, and growing even longer in recent weeks, but the group winner market tells a more interesting story. The USA is priced at 39% with Kalshi to win Group D, down from 48% a couple of weeks ago. This downgrade follows a couple of disappointing performances in March. The USMNT lost 5-2 to Belgium and 2-0 to Portugal in a pair of friendlies.
Yet the USA is still the slight favorite to win the group, ahead of Turkey (38%). That’s where the real action is for U.S. bettors right now. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, and Tyler Adams have proven themselves in Europe’s top leagues, and Ricardo Pepi has been prolific at PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie, giving the team a strong spine.
The USMNT haven’t made it past the World Cup quarterfinals in the modern era, so the outright price reflects that ceiling. However, they have a talented manager in Mauricio Pochettino, and home advantage could give them an edge — this is the first World Cup held in a fully regulated U.S. prediction market environment, so expect domestic volume on the USMNT to surge as the tournament approaches.
View: USA’s odds to win Group D
Mexico’s odds to win
Mexico trades at 1.0% on Kalshi and 1.1% on Polymarket to win the World Cup, putting them behind the major European favorites and the South American heavyweights in the outright market. El Tri have a strong, experienced team led by Edson Álvarez, César Montes, and Raúl Jiménez, and they should thrive in the humid conditions with home fans behind them. It’s also worth noting that Mexico played far better than the USMNT in March. They drew 0-0 with Portugal and 1-1 with Belgium, whereas both of those teams comfortably beat the USA.
El Tri tend to reach the knockout stage of the World Cup, but they rarely make it past the Round of 16 — and the market reflects that historical ceiling. The group stage market may offer better value than the outright, as Mexico should be competitive against South Korea, South Africa, and Czechia.
View: Mexico’s odds to win Group A
Canada’s odds to win
Canada is the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The outright odds are steep, but Canada’s trajectory has been impressive — they finished top of the North American World Cup qualifying group in 2022, ahead of Mexico and the USMNT, and reached the semifinals of Copa América in 2024.
The group stage qualification market is where bettors should focus, as the Canucks have a realistic path through a group with Switzerland, Qatar, and a playoff qualifier. Key players like Jonathan David and Tajon Buchanan need to stay healthy though, as the squad lacks depth beyond its starting XI. David scored twice in an underwhelming 2-2 friendly draw with Iceland in March. The biggest question mark is captain Alphonso Davies, who has struggled with injuries this season. He missed several months with a torn ACL, and he then sustained a hamstring injury in March, so the team will be sweating on his fitness.
View:Canada’s odds to win Group B
World Cup prediction markets
The top prediction sites are already offering a wide range of World Cup markets. They will continue to add extra markets as the tournament approaches. These are the main options to consider right now:
Tournament winner
This is the main World Cup futures market. Kalshi lists it as “Men’s World Cup winner?” and Polymarket calls it “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” — same underlying question, different naming conventions. The market has already generated more than $4.0M in combined volume. You simply predict which team will win the World Cup by buying yes/no contracts on any team, including those that still need to navigate the playoffs.
If you think a team will win the World Cup, buy “yes” contracts. If not, you can buy “no” contracts. You’ll also be able to sell your contracts before they settle. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit if the market moves in your favor.
Qualify for a certain stage
This could be a much safer option than picking the World Cup winner. Instead, you can bet on a team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. For example, you might opt for the USA to reach the Round of 16, England to reach the quarterfinals, or Spain to reach the semifinals.
It will be a ferociously competitive tournament, featuring the world’s best teams, so it can be hard to predict the overall winner. It’s often far safer to map out a team’s path to a specific stage. Kalshi is offering contracts on whether teams will reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final.
Group winner
The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams. That’s a 50% increase on the 32 teams that contested the last World Cup four years ago. They’ve been split into 12 groups, and each group features four teams.
You can predict the winner of each group. Some groups have a heavy favorite, like Spain in Group H, Argentina in Group L, and Brazil in Group C. Others are much tighter. For example, the USMNT is the favorite in Group D, but the market gives them just a 51% chance of success.
Group qualifiers
The top two teams in each group will qualify for the knockout stage, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The other two teams will pack their bags and head home. You can buy yes/no contracts on whether each team will qualify from their groups.
It’s not really worth buying “yes” contracts on heavy favorites like Spain, France, Argentina, England, and Brazil, as the upside is too low. Instead, it’s best to dig a little deeper and try to find teams that could upset their more established rivals. For example, African champions Senegal may be capable of causing an upset against Norway in Group I, while the battle between Ecuador and Ivory Coast in Group E looks fascinating.
Golden Boot
The Golden Boot is awarded to the top goalscorer at the World Cup. You need to consider which teams are likely to make the latter stages of the tournament when making predictions on this market.
Kylian Mbappé won it in 2022 after France reached the final, while Harry Kane claimed the Golden Boot in 2018 following England’s run to the semifinals. They’re the top two contenders this year, followed by Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Luis Díaz, Erling Haaland, and Cristiano Ronaldo. One dark horse to watch is Germany’s Nick Woltemade, who signed for Newcastle for a club-record fee and has hit the ground running in the Premier League. Kalshi lists this market as “FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner.”
World Cup props and special markets
Both platforms offer World Cup prop contracts beyond the standard outright and group markets. These are the live props available right now:
- “Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, currently trading at 91% yes with $16K in volume. The 39-year-old hasn’t officially confirmed whether he’ll suit up for Argentina, making this one of the most actively debated World Cup props.
- “Messi vs Ronaldo” World Cup goal contributions” — Available on Polymarket, allowing you to speculate on whether Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo will have the most goal contributions (goals and assists). Messi is the 55% favorite.
- “Which continent will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, with Europe priced at 67% and $5.1K in volume. Given that four of the top five favorites are European, this contract offers a way to bet on the broader trend rather than picking a single team.
- “2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?” — Available on Polymarket, with $768K in volume, making it the largest non-outright World Cup market on the platform. Individual contracts cover teams still navigating the playoff path, including Italy (66% to qualify) and DR Congo (85%).
- “FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay” — Available on Polymarket, trading at 20%. This bundles multiple qualification outcomes into a single contract for traders looking for a high-risk, high-reward play.
- “Will Iran Participate?” Iran is priced at 62% with Kalshi to participate in the World Cup. The team qualified for the tournament, but ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have cast doubt on their participation.
Kalshi offers two off-the-field World Cup props worth watching:
- “Who will sing the next World Cup song?” — Available on Kalshi. FIFA debuted its first official anthem, “Desire” by Robbie Williams and Laura Pausini, at the 2025 Club World Cup, and this contract lets traders predict the artist behind the next World Cup song.
- “Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup this year?” — Available on Kalshi. The U.S. travel ban has restricted fans from Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal from attending matches, and geopolitical tensions around tariffs have raised questions about whether any European nation could withdraw. This contract captures that uncertainty.
Expect both platforms to add more props as the tournament approaches, particularly around player-specific markets and match-level props.
Markets on specific World Cup matches
Kalshi has already released markets on the first round of group stage games. Right now, you’ll only find contracts on the result of each game. There are three options: Team A to win, a tie, or Team B to win. As always, you can buy “yes” contracts if you think a team will win their opening World Cup match.
Prediction sites will release more markets closer to kick-off. These are the main markets to look out for:
- Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can predict which team will cover the spread. For example, you might find Argentina -1.5 against Algeria. If you expect Argentina to win by a margin of at least 2 goals, buy “yes” contracts on Argentina. If you think Algeria will win, tie, or lose by a single goal, buy “yes” on Algeria.
- Total goals: A simple yes/no contract on whether both teams will combine for a certain number of goals. For instance, the line might be set at 2.5 goals. If you expect at least 3 goals in the game, buy “yes.” If not, buy “no.”
- Both teams to score: Another straightforward yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net.
- Goalscorer: You can predict whether a specific player will score during the match too. Once again, just make a yes/no prediction.
These markets are settled at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus any injury-time). They don’t include extra-time or penalties when it comes to knockout stage games.
Where to trade or bet World Cup
You’ll find lots of World Cup markets on the leading prediction sites. These are the top five to consider:
Kalshi: This app is available nationwide, and it offers deeper liquidity than rival prediction sites. It’s typically easy to open contracts and exit positions on popular markets like World Cup games. The fees are competitive (much lower than the juice charged by sportsbooks), and the platform is accessible. There are lots of World Cup markets too.
Polymarket: Another established prediction site, which operates on a nationwide basis. It’s a major rival to Kalshi, with a very similar user interface. The spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket can be significant, so it’s worth checking both sites before making your predictions. Polymarket has a different fee structure too, so it’s often cheaper to use this site.
DraftKings: The Boston-based gambling giant recently expanded into prediction markets after buying regulated site Railbird. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions isn’t available nationwide, but the site launched in 38 states. There are no World Cup markets yet, but we expect them to appear in the build-up to the tournament.
Fanatics: The Florida-based retailer has expanded into sports betting and casino gaming in recent years, and it has now jumped on the prediction markets bandwagon. Fanatics Markets launched in 24 states in December 2025, and it could expand as the World Cup approaches.
Underdog: The company teamed up with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets in 2025. Underdog Predict doesn’t offer the same sort of liquidity that you’ll find at Kalshi, but it’s another platform that’s gaining momentum, so it could emerge as a credible rival by the time the World Cup kicks off.
World Cup resolution criteria
Understanding the resolution criteria is the most important part of trading on prediction markets. Here’s how World Cup contracts will settle, and what you need to know before placing a trade. Learn more about how Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts.
Settlement date: The main tournament winner market will be settled on July 20, 2026. That’s one day after the final.
Resolution source: Prediction sites will use FIFA as the primary source for resolving contracts, with credible reporting as backup. Kalshi uses FIFA and ESPN, while Polymarket states: “The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
How elimination works in contracts: If a team is eliminated (knocked out in the group stage or a knockout round), the contract resolves to “no” immediately. This is the case at Kalshi and Polymarket.
Cancellation/postponement clause: Per Polymarket, if the World Cup is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “other.”
Extra time / penalties: The tournament winner is the team that lifts the trophy, regardless of how the final is decided (regulation, extra-time, or penalties). However, markets on individual matches are settled at the end of regulation time (not including extra-time or penalties).
48-team format implications: The top two from each of 12 groups will advance to round of 32, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The tournament will then follow a single-elimination knockout format through to the final.