2026 World Cup Winner Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Written By: Martin Green

Martin Green

Freelance Sports Writer

Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin...

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Edited By: Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle Shepstone

Director of Content

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...

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Free Bracket Pool – Live Game or Printable

Build a free 2026 World Cup bracket pool with no sign-up required and prediction-market odds shown on every match, then share a link to compete in a private pool with friends or climb the public leaderboard. You can also opt for a paper copy with our printable World Cup brackets with the groups filled in. If you are interested in trading, check out our list of World Cup prediction promos.

World Cup 2026 recap

Spain won the 2026 World Cup after beating Argentina 1-0 in the final on July 19. Ferran Torres scored the only goal of the game, but Spain’s defense was imperious throughout the match. La Roja only conceded one goal in eight games during the tournament, so goalkeeper Unai Simón won the Golde Glove. Spain captain Rodri won the Golden Ball award as the best player of the tournament after lifting the trophy.

England finished third after Bukayo Saka’s hat trick inspired England to a 6-4 victory over France in the bronze medal match. It was a chaotic game, but it ensured that England finished the tournament on a high note. Kylian Mbappé scored twice for France, taking his tally to 10 goals for the tournament. That ensured he won the Golden Boot, as he finished two goals clear of rival Lionel Messi.

Spain was the favorite to win the World Cup after beating France 2-0 in the semifinals. La Roja were priced at 58.2% with Kalshi and 58.0% with Polymarket, and they secured a dominant win against Argentina. That result extended their unbeaten streak to a record 38 games. Kalshi responded by making Spain the clear favorite to win Euro 2028, ahead of England and France. Argentina is the heavy favorite to win a third consecutive Copa América title in 2028, ahead of Brazil – which suffered a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Norway in the Round of 16 at this summer’s World Cup.

Host nations eliminated in the Round of 16

The USA, Canada, and Mexico were the co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, so all three teams qualified automatically. They all made it through to the Round of 16, but they were eliminated within the space of a brutal few days for North American soccer.

USA

The USMNT was eliminated after losing 4-1 to Belgium in the Round of 16. Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, and goals from Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku wrapped up a comprehensive win for the Belgians. Malik Tillman scored a free kick, but it proved to be a mere consolation goal for Team USA. Mauricio Pochettino’s men made several defensive errors in that game, and they couldn’t deal with De Ketelaere’s movement in the penalty box.

Prior to that defeat, Team USA traded at 4.3% on Kalshi and 2.8% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright after beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32. Team USA began its campaign with a 4-1 win against Paraguay, before beating Australia 2-0 on Friday in Seattle. Key players like Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams have been superb, and the entire team is bursting with energy and desire.

The USMNT lost its final group stage game against Turkïye, but that was a meaningless match. The Stars and Stripes got the better of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but their campaign ended with a painful defeat in Seattle.

Mexico

Mexico was eliminated after losing 3-2 to England in the Round of 16. El Tri traded at 5.3% on Kalshi and 3.7% with Polymarket to win the World Cup prior to that defeat. That was a large spread, which suggested that Mexican soccer fans in the US were far more bullish on their team than traders in other parts of the world.

El Tri beat South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, and Czechia 3-0 in the group stage, before clinching a dominant 2-0 win against Ecuador in the Round of 32. They were on a 12-game unbeaten streak, but that ended with defeat to England at Estadio Azteca on July 5.

Canada

Canada became the first co-host to be eliminated after losing 3-0 to Morocco in the Round of 16. Azzedine Ounahi scored twice and Soufiane Rahimi finished off a devastating counterattack to send the Atlas Lions through to the quarterfinals.

The CanMNT was always the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.3% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Canada finished second in its group and then beat South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32, courtesy of Stephen Eustáquio’s late strike from the edge of the penalty box. However, Canada was ultimately outclassed by a very strong Morocco team in Houston in the Round of 16.

Markets on future soccer tournaments

Kalshi and Polymarket are already offering markets on future tournaments like Euro 2028 and Copa América. You’ll find a wide range of markets on each match. These are the main markets to look out for:

• To advance: A prediction on which team will progress to the next round. This includes the potential for extra time and a penalty shootout. The other markets only cover regulation time (90 minutes, plus injury time).
• Moneyline: A prediction on the result at the end of regulation time. There are three potential outcomes: Team A to win, a draw (tie), or Team B to win.
• Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can predict which team will cover the spread. For example, you might find Argentina -1.5 against Algeria. If you expect Argentina to win by a margin of at least 2 goals, buy “yes” contracts on Argentina. If you think Algeria will win, tie, or lose by a single goal, buy “yes” on Algeria.
• Total goals: A simple yes/no contract on whether both teams will combine for a certain number of goals. For instance, the line might be set at 2.5 goals. If you expect at least 3 goals in the game, buy “yes.” If not, buy “no.”
• Both teams to score: Another straightforward yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net.
• Goalscorer: You can predict whether a specific player will score during the match too. Once again, just make a yes/no prediction.