2026 World Cup Winner Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Written By: Martin Green

Martin Green

Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin...

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Edited By: Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle Shepstone

Director of Content

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...

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Free Bracket Pool – Live Game or Printable

Build a free 2026 World Cup bracket pool with no sign-up required and prediction-market odds shown on every match, then share a link to compete in a private pool with friends or climb the public leaderboard. You can also opt for a paper copy with our printable World Cup brackets with the groups filled in. If you are interested in trading, check out our list of World Cup prediction promos.

World Cup predictions: Spain favored over Argentina

World Cup prediction markets have expanded significantly in recent weeks. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have added new contract types, and several teams saw notable price movement in the outright winner market. Here’s what changed since last week and events that likely impacted market turnover.

Argentina beats England. Argentina is heading to the World Cup final after beating England 2-1 on Wednesday. La Albiceleste were on the brink of elimination, as they were 1-0 down with five minutes remaining, but Lionel Messi then took over. He rolled the ball to Enzo Fernández, who fired in a long-range strike to make it 1-1. Messi then delivered a perfect cross into the box, and substitute Lautaro Martínez headed in the winner deep into injury-time. England was in control of the game, but Thomas Tuchel’s negative tactics backfired spectacularly. The Three Lions will now face France in the third-place playoff game on Saturday.

Spain beats France. Spain is the new World Cup favorite after beating France 2-0 in the semifinals on Tuesday. Goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro earned La Roja a deserved win. France was the favorite to lift the trophy prior to that game, priced at 40.1% with Kalshi and 38.6% with Polymarket, while Spain was trading at 21.2%. Spain has now surged to an aggregated probability of 58.1% as it prepares to face either England or Argentina in the final. La Roja will be favored to beat either team.

Golden Boot race still on. Kylian Mbappé failed to score in that defeat to Spain, so he’s still level with Lionel Messi on eight goals apiece in the Golden Boot race. He can still add to his tally in the third place playoff game, but prediction markets now make Messi the 48.5% favorite to win the top scorer award. Messi can pull clear of Mbappé if he finds the back of the net against England on Wednesday.

Spain’s odds to win the World Cup

Spain is now the heavy favorite to win the World Cup after beating France 2-0 in the semifinals. La Roja are priced at 58.2% with Kalshi and 58.0% with Polymarket after extending their unbeaten run to 37 games. The reigning European champion is surging with momentum, and it is the clear favorite to beat Argentina in the final.

Spain’s aggregated probability surged from 12.3% to 18.6% after it beat Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16. Substitute Mikel Merino scored the winning goal in the dying stages of that game. Prediction then gave La Roja a 19.9% chance of winning the World Cup after they beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals. Merino was the hero again, as he came off the bench to score a late winner. Spain’s chances have now surged to 58.1% on aggregate following that famous win against France.

The Spaniards have only conceded one goal at this tournament, and they keep finding a way to grind out wins. They could only draw 0-0 with Cape Verde in their opening game of the tournament – a result that will go down as one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history. However, they bounced back with a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia on Matchday 2. La Roja then beat Uruguay 1-0 in their group stage closer, before easing to a 3-0 victory against Austria in the Round of 32. They fought hard to earn wins against Portugal and Belgium in their next two games, and they’re now on a 37-game unbeaten streak.

La Roja have a world-class midfield featuring Rodri, Pedri, Merino, and Fabián Ruiz, while the defense is strong too. However, they still face a brutal route to the final, with Belgium awaiting in the quarterfinals. They could also face France in the semifinals. The biggest concern for Spain is the health of star winger Lamine Yamal. He injured his hamstring while playing for Barcelona on April 22, and he could only make a brief cameo appearance in that 0-0 draw with Cape Verde. He returned to the starting lineup against Saudi Arabia, and he has started every game since then. Yamal hasn’t been at his brilliant best at this tournament, but he won a penalty for Spain in the semifinals, and he’ll be La Roja’s creative spark against Argentina in the final.

Argentina’s odds to win

Argentina priced at 42.2% with Kalshi and 41.6% with Polymarket to win the World Cup after beating England in the semifinals. The reigning world champion is on a 21-game unbeaten streak, but some of its recent performances have been unconvincing.

The Argentineans won their group with ease, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0, and Jordan 3-1, but they struggled against Cape Verde in the Round of 32. The game finished 1-1 at the end of regulation time. Lisandro Martínez made it 2-1, but Cape Verde equalized through Sidny Lopes Cabral. A penalty shootout beckoned, but Diney Borges’ late own-goal rescued Argentina. La Albiceleste then secured a 3-2 comeback win against Egypt in the Round of 16, before beating 10-man Switzerland 3-1 in extra time in the quarterfinals.

Prior to the tournament, Kalshi and Polymarket only gave Argentina a 8.9% chance of winning the World Cup. La Albiceleste surged to 21.3% with Polymarket and Kalshi after receiving a favorable position in the bracket, leaving well them ahead of Spain and England. However, they dipped to 18.9% on aggregate, as their defending was poor during the games against Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland. They’ve now surged to 41.6% on aggregate after securing a thrilling comeback win against England in the semifinals.

Host nations eliminated in the Round of 16

The USA, Canada, and Mexico are the co-hosts of this tournament, so all three teams qualified automatically. They all made it through to the Round of 16, but they were eliminated within the space of a brutal few days for North American soccer.

USA

The USMNT was eliminated after losing 4-1 to Belgium in the Round of 16. Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, and goals from Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku wrapped up a comprehensive win for the Belgians. Malik Tillman scored a free kick, but it proved to be a mere consolation goal for Team USA. Mauricio Pochettino’s men made several defensive errors in that game, and they couldn’t deal with De Ketelaere’s movement in the penalty box.

Prior to that defeat, Team USA traded at 4.3% on Kalshi and 2.8% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright after beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32. Team USA began its campaign with a 4-1 win against Paraguay, before beating Australia 2-0 on Friday in Seattle. Key players like Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams have been superb, and the entire team is bursting with energy and desire.

The USMNT lost its final group stage game against Turkïye, but that was a meaningless match. The Stars and Stripes got the better of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but their campaign ended with a painful defeat in Seattle.

Mexico

Mexico was eliminated after losing 3-2 to England in the Round of 16. El Tri traded at 5.3% on Kalshi and 3.7% with Polymarket to win the World Cup prior to that defeat. That was a large spread, which suggested that Mexican soccer fans in the US were far more bullish on their team than traders in other parts of the world.

El Tri beat South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, and Czechia 3-0 in the group stage, before clinching a dominant 2-0 win against Ecuador in the Round of 32. They were on a 12-game unbeaten streak, but that ended with defeat to England at Estadio Azteca on July 5.

Canada

Canada became the first co-host to be eliminated after losing 3-0 to Morocco in the Round of 16. Azzedine Ounahi scored twice and Soufiane Rahimi finished off a devastating counterattack to send the Atlas Lions through to the quarterfinals.

The CanMNT was always the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.3% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Canada finished second in its group and then beat South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32, courtesy of Stephen Eustáquio’s late strike from the edge of the penalty box. However, Canada was ultimately outclassed by a very strong Morocco team in Houston in the Round of 16.

World Cup prediction markets

The top prediction sites are already offering a wide range of World Cup markets. They will continue to add extra markets as the tournament approaches. These are the main options to consider right now:

Tournament winner

This is the main World Cup futures market. Kalshi lists it as “Men’s World Cup winner?” and Polymarket calls it “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” — same underlying question, different naming conventions. The market has already generated more than $4.0M in combined volume. You simply predict which team will win the World Cup by buying yes/no contracts on any team, including those that still need to navigate the playoffs.

If you think a team will win the World Cup, buy “yes” contracts. If not, you can buy “no” contracts. You’ll also be able to sell your contracts before they settle. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit if the market moves in your favor.

Qualify for a certain stage

This could be a much safer option than picking the winner at future tournaments. Instead, you can bet on a team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. For example, you might opt for the USA to reach the quarterfinals, England to reach the semifinals, or Spain to reach the final.

It will be a ferociously competitive tournament, featuring the world’s best teams, so it can be hard to predict the overall winner. It’s often far safer to map out a team’s path to a specific stage. Kalshi is offering contracts on whether teams will reach a specific round.

Golden Boot

The Golden Boot is awarded to the top goalscorer at the World Cup. You need to consider which teams are likely to make the latter stages of the tournament when making predictions on this market.

Kylian Mbappé won it in 2022 after France reached the final, while Harry Kane claimed the Golden Boot in 2018 following England’s run to the semifinals. They’re two of the top contenders this year, along with Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, and Ousmane Dembélé.

World Cup props and special markets

Both platforms offer World Cup prop contracts beyond the standard outright markets. These are some of the live props available right now:

• “Which continent will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, with Europe priced at 67% and $5.1K in volume. It’s also live on Kalshi, where Europe is priced at 64%. Given that four of the top five favorites are European, this contract offers a way to bet on the broader trend rather than picking a single team.
• “Who will sing the next World Cup song?” — Available on Kalshi. FIFA debuted its first official anthem, “Desire” by Robbie Williams and Laura Pausini, at the 2025 Club World Cup, and this contract lets traders predict the artist behind the next World Cup song.

Markets on specific World Cup matches

You’ll find a wide range of markets on each match. These are the main markets to look out for:

• To advance: A prediction on which team will progress to the next round. This includes the potential for extra time and a penalty shootout. The other markets only cover regulation time (90 minutes, plus injury time).
• Moneyline: A prediction on the result at the end of regulation time. There are three potential outcomes: Team A to win, a draw (tie), or Team B to win.
• Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can predict which team will cover the spread. For example, you might find Argentina -1.5 against Algeria. If you expect Argentina to win by a margin of at least 2 goals, buy “yes” contracts on Argentina. If you think Algeria will win, tie, or lose by a single goal, buy “yes” on Algeria.
• Total goals: A simple yes/no contract on whether both teams will combine for a certain number of goals. For instance, the line might be set at 2.5 goals. If you expect at least 3 goals in the game, buy “yes.” If not, buy “no.”
• Both teams to score: Another straightforward yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net.
• Goalscorer: You can predict whether a specific player will score during the match too. Once again, just make a yes/no prediction.

These markets are settled at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus any injury-time). They don’t include extra-time or penalties when it comes to knockout stage games.

Where to trade or bet World Cup

You’ll find lots of World Cup markets on the leading prediction sites. These are the top five to consider:

Kalshi: This app is available nationwide, and it offers deeper liquidity than rival prediction sites. It’s typically easy to open contracts and exit positions on popular markets like World Cup games. The fees are competitive (much lower than the juice charged by sportsbooks), and the platform is accessible. There are lots of World Cup markets too.

Polymarket: Another established prediction site, which operates on a nationwide basis. It’s a major rival to Kalshi, with a very similar user interface. The spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket can be significant, so it’s worth checking both sites before making your predictions. Polymarket has a different fee structure too, so it’s often cheaper to use this site.

DraftKings: The Boston-based gambling giant recently expanded into prediction markets after buying regulated site Railbird. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions isn’t available nationwide, but the site launched in 38 states

Fanatics: The Florida-based retailer has expanded into sports betting and casino gaming in recent years, and it has now jumped on the prediction markets bandwagon. Fanatics Markets launched in 24 states in December 2025, and it could expand as the World Cup approaches.

Underdog: The company teamed up with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets in 2025. Underdog Predict doesn’t offer the same sort of liquidity that you’ll find at Kalshi, but it’s another platform that’s gaining momentum, so it could emerge as a credible rival as the World Cup unfolds.

World Cup resolution criteria

Understanding the resolution criteria is the most important part of trading on prediction markets. Here’s how World Cup contracts will settle, and what you need to know before placing a trade. Learn more about how Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts.

Settlement date: The main tournament winner market will be settled on July 20, 2026. That’s one day after the final.

Resolution source: Prediction sites will use FIFA as the primary source for resolving contracts, with credible reporting as backup. Kalshi uses FIFA and ESPN, while Polymarket states: “The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”

How elimination works in contracts: If a team is eliminated (knocked out in the group stage or a knockout round), the contract resolves to “no” immediately. This is the case at Kalshi and Polymarket.

Cancellation/postponement clause: Per Polymarket, if the World Cup is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “other.”

Extra time / penalties: The tournament winner is the team that lifts the trophy, regardless of how the final is decided (regulation, extra-time, or penalties). However, markets on individual matches are settled at the end of regulation time (not including extra-time or penalties).

48-team format implications: The top two from each of 12 groups advanced to round of 32, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The tournament will now follow a single-elimination knockout format through to the final.