2026 World Cup Winner Odds: France Favorite at 17.4%
France is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at prediction markets with +475 odds or 17.4% implied probability. Spain trades at +505 (16.5%) and England at +784 (11.3%). The World Cup winner contract has generated $294.3M in trading volume, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Settlement is on July 20, 2026—one day after the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.Our 2026 FIFA World Cup odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates
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FIFA World Cup Tournament Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
FRFrance
Vol $13.7M
Spread 32.7%
Agg
+475↑ +1.0%
O
+100
G
+388
K
+459
P
+476
SPSpain
Vol $7.1M
Spread 0.3%
Agg
+505↓ -0.6%
P
+504
G
+506
K
+515
ENEngland
Vol $5.4M
Spread 0.4%
Agg
+784↑ +0.3%
P
+781
K
+801
G
+809
BRBrazil
Vol $6.4M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+991↑ +0.6%
O
+809
K
+936
P
+993
G
+1,011
ARArgentina
Vol $5.7M
Spread 4.5%
Agg
+1,067↓ -0.3%
O
+669
K
+993
G
+1,011
P
+1,070
POPortugal
Vol $7.1M
Spread 0.3%
Agg
+1,112↑ +0.9%
P
+1,112
K
+1,127
G
+1,150
GEGermany
Vol $5.8M
Spread 0.1%
Agg
+1,842— +0.0%
K
+1,842
P
+1,842
G
+1,900
NINigeria
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
+2,400— +0.0%
O
+2,400
NENetherlands
Vol $5.6M
Spread 2.6%
Agg
+2,880↑ +0.1%
O
+1,567
K
+2,567
G
+2,757
P
+2,885
NONorway
Vol $5.4M
Spread 2.1%
Agg
+4,345↑ +0.1%
O
+2,400
P
+4,344
G
+4,900
K
+5,028
JAJapan
Vol $6.8M
Spread 2.2%
Agg
+4,782↑ +0.3%
O
+2,400
P
+4,778
G
+4,900
K
+5,305
BEBelgium
Vol $5.3M
Spread 1.2%
Agg
+5,305↑ +0.1%
O
+3,233
K
+4,778
G
+4,900
P
+5,305
COColombia
Vol $4.7M
Spread 0.4%
Agg
+5,959— +0.0%
G
+4,900
K
+5,456
P
+5,961
USUSA
Vol $21.8M
Spread 1.1%
Agg
+6,373↑ +0.3%
G
+3,900
P
+6,352
K
+7,043
MOMorocco
Vol $7.3M
Spread 2.5%
Agg
+6,385↓ -0.1%
O
+2,400
P
+6,352
K
+6,567
G
+6,567
SWSwitzerland
Vol $5.5M
Spread 2.2%
Agg
+8,596↑ +0.2%
O
+3,233
G
+6,567
P
+8,596
K
+11,665
MEMexico
Vol $6.6M
Spread 0.4%
Agg
+9,413↓ -0.1%
G
+6,567
K
+7,307
P
+9,424
CRCroatia
Vol $10.5M
Spread 2.9%
Agg
+9,420↑ +0.1%
O
+2,400
G
+6,567
K
+7,307
P
+9,424
URUruguay
Vol $5.1M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+9,424↑ +0.1%
O
+3,233
P
+9,424
K
+9,900
ECEcuador
Vol $7.2M
Spread 2.4%
Agg
+13,233— +0.0%
O
+3,233
G
+6,567
P
+13,233
K
+15,285
SESenegal
Vol $5.2M
Spread 2.3%
Agg
+13,233↑ +0.1%
O
+3,233
K
+13,233
P
+13,233
TUTurkey
Vol $1.8K
Spread 0.8%
Agg
+13,233— +0.0%
G
+6,567
K
+13,233
AUAustria
Vol $5.1M
Spread 2.6%
Agg
+18,082— +0.0%
O
+3,233
P
+18,082
K
+22,122
CACanada
Vol $8.1M
Spread 3.6%
Agg
+22,122↓ -0.1%
O
+2,400
K
+22,122
P
+22,122
EGEgypt
Vol $8.7M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+28,471— +0.0%
O
+3,233
P
+28,471
K
+39,900
ICIvory Coast
Vol $11.6M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+28,471↓ -0.1%
O
+3,233
P
+28,471
K
+39,900
PAParaguay
Vol $4.3M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+28,471↓ -0.1%
O
+3,233
P
+28,471
K
+39,900
SCScotland
Vol $3.2M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+28,471— +0.0%
O
+3,233
P
+28,471
K
+39,900
SWSweden
Vol $31.7K
Spread 2.7%
Agg
+28,471↓ -0.2%
O
+3,233
K
+28,471
SKSouth Korea
Vol $6.6M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+28,545— +0.0%
O
+3,233
P
+28,471
K
+39,900
ALAlgeria
Vol $6.9M
Spread 3.9%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+2,400
P
+39,900
K
+66,567
AUAustralia
Vol $13.5M
Spread 3.9%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+2,400
P
+39,900
K
+66,567
GHGhana
Vol $4.3M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+3,233
P
+39,900
K
+66,567
TUTunisia
Vol $8.0M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+39,900— +0.0%
O
+3,233
P
+39,900
K
+66,567
CVCape Verde
Vol $6.9M
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+9,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
CUCuracao
Vol $7.2M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+4,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
HAHaiti
Vol $2.3M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+4,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
IRIran
Vol $10.0M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+66,567↓ -0.1%
O
+3,233
K
+66,567
P
+66,567
JOJordan
Vol $6.5M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+4,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
NZNew Zealand
Vol $7.9M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+4,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
QAQatar
Vol $7.7M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+4,900
G
+6,567
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $6.3M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567↓ -0.1%
O
+4,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
SASouth Africa
Vol $4.1M
Spread 2.8%
Agg
+66,567↓ -0.1%
O
+3,233
K
+66,567
P
+66,567
UZUzbekistan
Vol $6.8M
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+66,567— +0.0%
O
+4,900
P
+66,567
K
+199,900
PAPanama
Vol $73
Spread 2.0%
Agg
+199,900— +0.0%
O
+4,900
K
+199,900
DEDenmark
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
IRIreland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
ITItaly
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
P
—
NINorthern Ireland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
POPoland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
RORomania
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
UKUkraine
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
WAWales
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—— +0.0%
K
—
Odds Over Time
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 17.4¢ | Sell @ G 20¢ | +2.60% | +2.52% |
Yes | |
AR Argentina |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 8.6¢ | Sell @ K 9.1¢ | +0.50% | +0.41% |
No | |
BR Brazil |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 9.2¢ | Sell @ K 9.6¢ | +0.40% | +0.30% |
No | |
NE Netherlands |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 3.4¢ | Sell @ K 3.7¢ | +0.30% | +0.23% |
No | |
SW Switzerland |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.9¢ | Sell @ P 1.1¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
ME Mexico |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.1¢ | Sell @ K 1.3¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
NO Norway |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ P 2.2¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
JA Japan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.9¢ | Sell @ P 2¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
BE Belgium |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.9¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
CR Croatia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.1¢ | Sell @ K 1.2¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
EN England |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 11.2¢ | Sell @ P 11.3¢ | +0.10% | -0.01% |
No | |
CO Colombia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.7¢ | Sell @ K 1.7¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
US USA |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.5¢ | Sell @ P 1.5¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
EC Ecuador |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.7¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
AU Austria |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.5¢ | Sell @ P 0.5¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
EG Egypt |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
IC Ivory Coast |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SC Scotland |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SK South Korea |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.3¢ | Sell @ P 0.3¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
AL Algeria |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
AU Australia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
GH Ghana |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
TU Tunisia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CV Cape Verde |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
CU Curacao |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
HA Haiti |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
JO Jordan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
NZ New Zealand |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
QA Qatar |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
SA Saudi Arabia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.1¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
PO Portugal |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 8.2¢ | Sell @ P 8.2¢ | +0.00% | -0.08% |
No | |
IT Italy |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.1¢ | Sell @ K 0¢ | -0.10% | -0.10% |
No | |
UR Uruguay |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.1¢ | Sell @ P 1¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
SE Senegal |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.8¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
CA Canada |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.5¢ | Sell @ P 0.4¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
IR Iran |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
SA South Africa |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 0.2¢ | Sell @ P 0.1¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
GE Germany |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 5.2¢ | Sell @ P 5.1¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
SP Spain |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 16.6¢ | Sell @ P 16.5¢ | -0.10% | -0.27% |
No | |
MO Morocco |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1.7¢ | Sell @ P 1.5¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
TU Turkey |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 0.8¢ | Sell @ G 0¢ | -0.80% | -0.87% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France |
NO Norway |
Gemini | A +388 | B +4,900 | +18.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
US USA |
Gemini | A +388 | B +3,900 | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NE Netherlands |
Gemini | A +388 | B +2,757 | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NO Norway |
Kalshi | A +459 | B +5,028 | +15.95% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
BE Belgium |
Kalshi | A +459 | B +4,778 | +15.85% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
GE Germany |
Gemini | A +388 | B +1,900 | +15.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
JA Japan |
Polymarket | A +476 | B +4,778 | +15.30% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NO Norway |
Polymarket | A +476 | B +4,344 | +15.10% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
JA Japan |
Polymarket | A +504 | B +4,778 | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NO Norway |
Gemini | A +506 | B +4,900 | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NO Norway |
Kalshi | A +515 | B +5,028 | +14.30% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NO Norway |
Polymarket | A +504 | B +4,344 | +14.30% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
BE Belgium |
Kalshi | A +515 | B +4,778 | +14.20% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NE Netherlands |
Kalshi | A +459 | B +2,567 | +14.15% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
US USA |
Gemini | A +506 | B +3,900 | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NE Netherlands |
Polymarket | A +476 | B +2,885 | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NE Netherlands |
Polymarket | A +504 | B +2,885 | +13.20% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NE Netherlands |
Gemini | A +506 | B +2,757 | +13.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
GE Germany |
Kalshi | A +459 | B +1,842 | +12.75% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
NE Netherlands |
Kalshi | A +515 | B +2,567 | +12.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
PO Portugal |
Gemini | A +388 | B +1,150 | +12.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
GE Germany |
Polymarket | A +476 | B +1,842 | +12.20% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
BR Brazil |
Gemini | A +388 | B +1,011 | +11.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
AR Argentina |
Gemini | A +388 | B +1,011 | +11.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
GE Germany |
Gemini | A +506 | B +1,900 | +11.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
GE Germany |
Polymarket | A +504 | B +1,842 | +11.40% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
GE Germany |
Kalshi | A +515 | B +1,842 | +11.10% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
PO Portugal |
Kalshi | A +459 | B +1,127 | +9.75% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
EN England |
Gemini | A +388 | B +809 | +9.50% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
JA Japan |
Polymarket | A +781 | B +4,778 | +9.30% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals Qualifier Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SPSpain
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
57.5%↓ -13.5%
K
57.5%
ENEngland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
56.5%↓ -15.0%
K
56.5%
FRFrance
Vol $91
Spread 1.0%
Agg
54.0%↓ -13.0%
K
54.0%
G
53.0%
ARArgentina
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
50.5%↓ -14.0%
K
50.5%
BRBrazil
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
50.0%↓ -8.5%
K
50.0%
POPortugal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
48.5%↓ -4.5%
K
48.5%
GEGermany
Vol $196
Spread —
Agg
42.0%↓ -18.0%
K
42.0%
BEBelgium
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
37.0%↑ +9.0%
K
37.0%
NENetherlands
Vol $8
Spread —
Agg
34.5%↑ +2.0%
K
34.5%
NONorway
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
30.5%↓ -5.0%
K
30.5%
COColombia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
27.5%↓ -4.0%
K
27.5%
MEMexico
Vol $10
Spread —
Agg
23.0%↓ -7.0%
K
23.0%
MOMorocco
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
23.0%↓ -11.5%
K
23.0%
USUSA
Vol $14
Spread —
Agg
21.0%↑ +1.0%
K
21.0%
SWSwitzerland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
20.5%↓ -5.0%
K
20.5%
JAJapan
Vol $92
Spread 0.5%
Agg
20.0%↓ -27.0%
K
20.0%
G
19.5%
URUruguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
19.5%↓ -11.5%
K
19.5%
CRCroatia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
18.5%↓ -9.0%
K
18.5%
ECEcuador
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
17.5%↓ -9.5%
K
17.5%
TUTurkiye
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
17.5%↓ -14.0%
K
17.5%
SESenegal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
15.5%↓ -4.5%
K
15.5%
AUAustria
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
14.5%↑ +6.5%
K
14.5%
SWSweden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
14.0%↓ -26.5%
K
14.0%
CACanada
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
12.0%↑ +2.5%
K
12.0%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
10.0%↓ -29.5%
K
10.0%
PAParaguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
10.0%↑ +1.0%
K
10.0%
ALAlgeria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.5%↓ -0.5%
K
8.5%
GHGhana
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.5%↓ -34.0%
K
8.5%
SCScotland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
8.0%↓ -28.5%
K
8.0%
CZCzechia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -37.5%
K
7.5%
KRKorea Republic
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -8.0%
K
7.5%
EGEgypt
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.0%↑ +0.5%
K
7.0%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↓ -18.5%
K
6.5%
IIIR Iran
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
6.5%↑ +1.5%
K
6.5%
AUAustralia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.5%↓ -14.0%
K
4.5%
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -14.0%
K
4.0%
SASouth Africa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -38.5%
K
4.0%
TUTunisia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -38.5%
K
4.0%
CDCongo DR
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.0%↓ -32.0%
K
3.0%
PAPanama
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.0%↓ -15.5%
K
3.0%
CVCape Verde
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -35.0%
K
2.5%
CUCuracao
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -32.5%
K
2.5%
IRIraq
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -40.0%
K
2.5%
NZNew Zealand
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -40.0%
K
2.5%
UZUzbekistan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -30.0%
K
2.5%
JOJordan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -1.5%
K
2.0%
QAQatar
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%↓ -18.0%
K
2.0%
HAHaiti
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -41.0%
K
1.5%
ALAlbania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
BOBolivia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DEDenmark
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
IRIreland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
I2Ireland - 2
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
ITItaly
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
JAJamaica
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
KOKosovo
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NCNew Caledonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NMNorth Macedonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
POPoland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
RORomania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SLSlovakia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SUSuriname
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
UKUkraine
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
WAWales
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP Spain | 57.5% ↓ -13.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
57.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
EN England | 56.5% ↓ -15.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
56.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
FR France | 54.0% ↓ -13.0% | 1.0% | $91 |
Kalshi
54.0%
|
Gemini
53.0%
|
AR Argentina | 50.5% ↓ -14.0% | — | $10 |
Kalshi
50.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BR Brazil | 50.0% ↓ -8.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
50.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PO Portugal | 48.5% ↓ -4.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
48.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
GE Germany | 42.0% ↓ -18.0% | — | $196 |
Kalshi
42.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
BE Belgium | 37.0% ↑ +9.0% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
37.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
NE Netherlands | 34.5% ↑ +2.0% | — | $8 |
Kalshi
34.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NO Norway | 30.5% ↓ -5.0% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
30.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CO Colombia | 27.5% ↓ -4.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
27.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
ME Mexico | 23.0% ↓ -7.0% | — | $10 |
Kalshi
23.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
MO Morocco | 23.0% ↓ -11.5% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
23.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
US USA | 21.0% ↑ +1.0% | — | $14 |
Kalshi
21.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Switzerland | 20.5% ↓ -5.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
20.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Japan | 20.0% ↓ -27.0% | 0.5% | $92 |
Kalshi
20.0%
|
Gemini
19.5%
|
UR Uruguay | 19.5% ↓ -11.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
19.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CR Croatia | 18.5% ↓ -9.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
EC Ecuador | 17.5% ↓ -9.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
TU Turkiye | 17.5% ↓ -14.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SE Senegal | 15.5% ↓ -4.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
15.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Austria | 14.5% ↑ +6.5% | — | $2 |
Kalshi
14.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Sweden | 14.0% ↓ -26.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
14.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CA Canada | 12.0% ↑ +2.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
12.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
IC Ivory Coast | 10.0% ↓ -29.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
10.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Paraguay | 10.0% ↑ +1.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
10.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Algeria | 8.5% ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
GH Ghana | 8.5% ↓ -34.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SC Scotland | 8.0% ↓ -28.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
8.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CZ Czechia | 7.5% ↓ -37.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
KR Korea Republic | 7.5% ↓ -8.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
EG Egypt | 7.0% ↑ +0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 6.5% ↓ -18.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
II IR Iran | 6.5% ↑ +1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Australia | 4.5% ↓ -14.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SA Saudi Arabia | 4.0% ↓ -14.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SA South Africa | 4.0% ↓ -38.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
TU Tunisia | 4.0% ↓ -38.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CD Congo DR | 3.0% ↓ -32.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Panama | 3.0% ↓ -15.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CV Cape Verde | 2.5% ↓ -35.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CU Curacao | 2.5% ↓ -32.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
IR Iraq | 2.5% ↓ -40.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NZ New Zealand | 2.5% ↓ -40.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
UZ Uzbekistan | 2.5% ↓ -30.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
JO Jordan | 2.0% ↓ -1.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
QA Qatar | 2.0% ↓ -18.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
HA Haiti | 1.5% ↓ -41.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Albania | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
BO Bolivia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
DE Denmark | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
IR Ireland | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
I2 Ireland - 2 | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
IT Italy | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Jamaica | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
KO Kosovo | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
NC New Caledonia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
NM North Macedonia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
PO Poland | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
RO Romania | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SL Slovakia | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SU Suriname | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
UK Ukraine | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
WA Wales | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Gemini
—
|
FIFA World Cup Final Qualifier Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
FRFrance
Vol $349
Spread 0.0%
Agg
27.5%↓ -0.5%
K
27.5%
G
27.5%
SPSpain
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
26.5%↓ -14.0%
K
26.5%
G
26.5%
ENEngland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
21.5%↓ -13.0%
K
21.5%
ARArgentina
Vol $5
Spread —
Agg
17.5%↓ -6.5%
K
17.5%
BRBrazil
Vol $0
Spread 0.5%
Agg
17.0%↓ -10.0%
G
17.5%
K
17.0%
POPortugal
Vol $9
Spread —
Agg
15.5%↓ -4.0%
K
15.5%
GEGermany
Vol $5
Spread —
Agg
14.5%↓ -8.5%
K
14.5%
NENetherlands
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
9.5%↑ +3.5%
K
9.5%
BEBelgium
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
7.5%↓ -9.0%
K
7.5%
COColombia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.5%↓ -6.5%
K
5.5%
NONorway
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
5.5%↓ -5.5%
K
5.5%
MEMexico
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.5%↓ -5.5%
K
4.5%
USUSA
Vol $9
Spread 0.5%
Agg
4.5%↓ -3.5%
K
4.5%
G
4.0%
TUTurkiye
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -7.5%
K
4.0%
CRCroatia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -27.5%
K
3.5%
ECEcuador
Vol $0
Spread 0.5%
Agg
3.5%↓ -11.0%
G
4.0%
K
3.5%
MOMorocco
Vol $17
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -5.5%
K
3.5%
SWSwitzerland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -6.5%
K
3.5%
URUruguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.5%↓ -25.0%
K
3.5%
SWSweden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
3.0%↓ -21.5%
K
3.0%
AUAustria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -32.5%
K
2.5%
CZCzechia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -9.0%
K
2.5%
JAJapan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -11.5%
K
2.5%
SESenegal
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.5%↓ -31.0%
K
2.5%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -25.5%
K
1.5%
CACanada
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -12.5%
K
1.5%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.5%↓ -33.0%
K
1.5%
ALAlgeria
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↓ -22.5%
K
1.0%
EGEgypt
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↓ -31.5%
K
1.0%
PAParaguay
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↓ -29.0%
K
1.0%
SCScotland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↓ -34.0%
K
1.0%
AUAustralia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -34.5%
K
0.5%
CVCape Verde
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -4.5%
K
0.5%
CDCongo DR
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -9.5%
K
0.5%
CUCuracao
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -25.0%
K
0.5%
GHGhana
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -12.0%
K
0.5%
HAHaiti
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -25.0%
K
0.5%
IRIraq
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -7.0%
K
0.5%
IIIR Iran
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -22.0%
K
0.5%
JOJordan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -34.5%
K
0.5%
KRKorea Republic
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -12.0%
K
0.5%
NZNew Zealand
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -33.0%
K
0.5%
PAPanama
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -34.5%
K
0.5%
QAQatar
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -33.0%
K
0.5%
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -21.0%
K
0.5%
SASouth Africa
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -11.0%
K
0.5%
TUTunisia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -34.5%
K
0.5%
UZUzbekistan
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↓ -34.5%
K
0.5%
ALAlbania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
BOBolivia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
DEDenmark
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
IRIreland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
I2Ireland - 2
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
ITItaly
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
JAJamaica
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
KOKosovo
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NCNew Caledonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
NMNorth Macedonia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
POPoland
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
RORomania
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SLSlovakia
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
SUSuriname
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
UKUkraine
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
WAWales
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France | 27.5% ↓ -0.5% | 0.0% | $349 |
Kalshi
27.5%
|
Gemini
27.5%
|
SP Spain | 26.5% ↓ -14.0% | 0.0% | $0 |
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Gemini
26.5%
|
EN England | 21.5% ↓ -13.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
21.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AR Argentina | 17.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $5 |
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BR Brazil | 17.0% ↓ -10.0% | 0.5% | $0 |
Kalshi
17.0%
|
Gemini
17.5%
|
PO Portugal | 15.5% ↓ -4.0% | — | $9 |
Kalshi
15.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
GE Germany | 14.5% ↓ -8.5% | — | $5 |
Kalshi
14.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NE Netherlands | 9.5% ↑ +3.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
9.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BE Belgium | 7.5% ↓ -9.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
7.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CO Colombia | 5.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
NO Norway | 5.5% ↓ -5.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
ME Mexico | 4.5% ↓ -5.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
US USA | 4.5% ↓ -3.5% | 0.5% | $9 |
Kalshi
4.5%
|
Gemini
4.0%
|
TU Turkiye | 4.0% ↓ -7.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
CR Croatia | 3.5% ↓ -27.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
EC Ecuador | 3.5% ↓ -11.0% | 0.5% | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
4.0%
|
MO Morocco | 3.5% ↓ -5.5% | — | $17 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Switzerland | 3.5% ↓ -6.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
UR Uruguay | 3.5% ↓ -25.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Sweden | 3.0% ↓ -21.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Austria | 2.5% ↓ -32.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CZ Czechia | 2.5% ↓ -9.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
JA Japan | 2.5% ↓ -11.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SE Senegal | 2.5% ↓ -31.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.5% ↓ -25.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CA Canada | 1.5% ↓ -12.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
IC Ivory Coast | 1.5% ↓ -33.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
AL Algeria | 1.0% ↓ -22.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
EG Egypt | 1.0% ↓ -31.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PA Paraguay | 1.0% ↓ -29.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
SC Scotland | 1.0% ↓ -34.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AU Australia | 0.5% ↓ -34.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CV Cape Verde | 0.5% ↓ -4.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CD Congo DR | 0.5% ↓ -9.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CU Curacao | 0.5% ↓ -25.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Gemini
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GH Ghana | 0.5% ↓ -12.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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HA Haiti | 0.5% ↓ -25.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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IR Iraq | 0.5% ↓ -7.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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II IR Iran | 0.5% ↓ -22.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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JO Jordan | 0.5% ↓ -34.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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KR Korea Republic | 0.5% ↓ -12.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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NZ New Zealand | 0.5% ↓ -33.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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PA Panama | 0.5% ↓ -34.5% | — | $0 |
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0.5%
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Gemini
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QA Qatar | 0.5% ↓ -33.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
—
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SA Saudi Arabia | 0.5% ↓ -21.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
—
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SA South Africa | 0.5% ↓ -11.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
—
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TU Tunisia | 0.5% ↓ -34.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
—
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UZ Uzbekistan | 0.5% ↓ -34.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
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Gemini
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AL Albania | — — | — | — |
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BO Bolivia | — — | — | — |
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DE Denmark | — — | — | — |
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IR Ireland | — — | — | — |
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I2 Ireland - 2 | — — | — | — |
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IT Italy | — — | — | — |
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JA Jamaica | — — | — | — |
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KO Kosovo | — — | — | — |
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NC New Caledonia | — — | — | — |
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NM North Macedonia | — — | — | — |
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PO Poland | — — | — | — |
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RO Romania | — — | — | — |
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SL Slovakia | — — | — | — |
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SU Suriname | — — | — | — |
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UK Ukraine | — — | — | — |
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WA Wales | — — | — | — |
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Martin Green
Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin...
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch...
Weekly FIFA World Cup predictions recap
World Cup prediction markets have expanded significantly in recent weeks. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have added new contract types, and several teams saw notable price movement in the outright winner market. Here’s what changed since last week and events that likely impacted market turnover.
France continues to build momentum. Les Bleus are now priced at 19% with Kalshi to win the World Cup this summer. They were trading at just 10.9% a couple of months ago, but they’re now the clear favorites to lift the trophy. That’s largely down to the superb form of key players like Ousmane Dembélé, Desiré Doué, Michael Olise, and William Saliba, who have all been on a tear in the Champions League.
Kalshi launches new contracts. Kalshi has opened a market on the furthest stage one of the host nations will reach. This market covers the USA, Mexico, and Canada. There are seven options: group stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, losing the final, or winning the final. You can buy yes/no contracts on any of those options. There’s also a new market on whether there will be a first time winner – “yes” is priced at 22%, while “no” is 28%. Finally, you can also make predictions on which World Cup group will yield the eventual champion.
Award markets launched. Kalshi has also launched markets on which player will win the Golden Ball, Silver Ball, and Bronze Ball at the 2026 World Cup. The awards go to the top three players at the tournament, and they’re decided by FIFA. Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, and Lamine Yamal are among the favorites. Yamal is now given a 92% chance of taking part in the World Cup, according to Kalshi traders, as he’s expected to recover from a hamstring injury.
White to miss the World Cup. England right-back Ben White will miss the tournament after sustaining a knee injury in Arsenal’s 1-0 win against West Ham at the weekend. That’s a blow, as he was linking up well with winger Bukayo Saka on the right flank for the Gunners, and that partnership could have flourished at the World Cup. England is now trading at 11.1% with Kalshi and 11.5% with Polymarket to lift the trophy.
Which country is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?
France is the favorite to win the World Cup after storming to the top of the FIFA world rankings. Les Bleus face competition from elite European and South American rivals, while co-hosts USA, Mexico, and Canada are also bidding to cause an upset. The majority of World Cup outright volume is currently flowing through Polymarket — Argentina’s $77.1K in Polymarket volume dwarfs its $118 on Kalshi, and the pattern holds across every team on the board. That’s likely to shift as Kalshi winds down from March Madness and ramps up its World Cup coverage in the months ahead.
| Rank | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 18.3% | 16.0% | 2.5% | I (Senegal, Norway, Playoff 2) |
| 2 | Spain | 16.7% | 15.4% | 3.7% | H (Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia) |
| 3 | England | 11.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | K (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) |
| 4 | Argentina | 9.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | L (Austria, Algeria, Jordan) |
| 5 | Brazil | 9.2% | 8.6% | 4.5% | C (Morocco, Scotland, Haiti) |
| 6 | Portugal | 8.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | J (Colombia, Uzbekistan, Playoff 1) |
| 7 | Germany | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | E (Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao) |
| 8 | Netherlands | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | F (Japan, Tunisia, Playoff B) |
| 9 | Norway | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | I (France, Senegal, Playoff 2) |
| 10 | USA | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | D (Paraguay, Australia, Playoff C) |
| 11 | Italy | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | B (Canada, Switzerland, Qatar) — if they qualify via UEFA playoffs |
| 12 | Mexico | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | A (South Korea, South Africa, Playoff D) |
| 13 | Canada | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | G (Switzerland, Qatar, Playoff A) |
France’s odds to win
France is now the favorite to win the World Cup. Les Bleus are priced at 19% on Kalshi and 17.8% with Polymarket after steadily gaining momentum over the past two months. France moved up to No. 1 in the FIFA world rankings after beating Brazil and Colombia in March, and traders have grown increasingly bullish on Didier Deschamps team.
Key players like Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé are in fine form. Mbappé is the top scorer in La Liga and the Champions League this season, and he has the quality to put any team in the world to the sword. Michael Olise continues to perform well at club level for Bayern Munich, as does Desiré Doué at PSG Striker Hugo Ekitike recently suffered an injury, which will mean he misses the tournament, but traders shrugged that off, as France is stacked with attacking talent.
Les Bleus won the World Cup in 2018 and finished runners-up in 2022 after losing to Argentina on penalties, so the pedigree is there. The supporting cast looks strong, with Doué emerging alongside Olise, while William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano are solid in defense. Les Bleus were outplayed by Spain at Euro 2024, but their sheer power and physicality should give them an excellent chance of success this summer.
View: France’s odds to win Group I
Spain’s odds to win the World Cup
Spain is now the second-favorite to win the World Cup this summer. La Roja’s aggregated probability has fallen to 16.4%, down from 17.3% a few weeks ago. That followed news of an injury to star player Lamine Yamal. He won’t play again for Barcelona this season, but the teenage winger is expected to recover in time for the World Cup (Kalshi gives him a 92% chance of taking part). However, he will lack match fitness by that point, which is a blow for Spain.
La Roja still have a world-class midfield featuring Rodri and Pedri, while the defense is strong too. The Spaniards also drew a favorable group, and they have a pretty clear path to the World Cup semifinals. However, they could then face France in the final four, which would be a blockbuster clash.
The biggest concern heading into the summer is squad health. Mikel Merino and Pablo Barrios are injured, although PSG midfielder Fabián Ruiz is now back. Former Ballon d’Or winner Rodri has also rediscovered his best form for Man City after returning from a long-term injury, and he starred in Spain’s 3-0 win against Serbia in a friendly at the end of March. Mikel Oyarzabal has emerged as a reliable source of goals for La Roja too. Merino should recover in time for the World Cup, but the depth of the injury list could test Spain’s squad depth at a tournament that demands eight matches to lift the trophy.
View: Spain’s odds to win Group H
England’s odds to win
England sits third after a couple of disappointing performances. The Three Lions drew 1-1 with Uruguay and then lost 1-0 to Japan in a pair of friendlies at the end of March. Manager Thomas Tuchel rested his key players for those games, and he opted for experimental lineups. However, the performances underscored England’s reliance on captain Harry Kane. He missed both games, and the team looked toothless in attack. The Three Lions are now trading at 11.5% with Polymarket and 11.1% with Kalshi. Traders may be pricing in the possibility of England falling apart if Kane suffers an injury.
England suffered a series of heartbreaking defeats at major tournaments under Gareth Southgate, finishing runners-up at the last two European Championships and losing to France in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals. Thomas Tuchel replaced Southgate as England manager in January 2025, and he has a 100% winning record in competitive matches so far. Tuchel, who signed a contract extension in February, previously won the Champions League with Chelsea, and he’s regarded as an astute tactician. The defense is their Achilles’ heel, but England’s midfield is superb, and Kane is arguably the world’s greatest goalscorer.
Brazil’s odds to win
Brazil has emerged as the fourth most likely team to lift the trophy after steadily gaining momentum in recent weeks. Manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a star-studded squad at his disposal, led by the magnificent Vinícius Júnior. A defense featuring Gabriel Magalhaẽes and Marquinhos also looks rock-solid, and Alisson Becker is an excellent goalkeeper, so there are very few weaknesses in the team.
However, Brazil has flopped at the last few World Cups, and the Seleçao could only finish fifth in the South American World Cup qualifying group, with six defeats from 18 games. They now have an elite manager in Ancelotti, but it will be difficult for the Samba Boys to win their first World Cup since 2002, so they’re priced at 9.7% with Kalshi and 8.9% with Polymarket.
Argentina’s odds to win
Argentina is the now the fifth most likely team to win the World Cup. Traders grew more bearish on La Albiceleste’s chances of defending the title they won four years ago following a limp performance in a friendly against Mauritania in March. Argentina won 2-1, but they looked sloppy in defense, and they lacked cutting edge in attack. They then beat Zambia 5-0 a few days later, but traders remain unconvinced.
Kalshi now gives Argentina a 9.6% chance of winning the World Cup, and La Albiceleste have dropped to 8.6% on Polymarket. Most of the outright volume has flowed through Polymarket, so that leaves Argentina well behind Spain, France, and England, and they’ve also fallen behind Brazil. On a brighter note, star player Lionel Messi now has a 92% chance of taking part in the tournament, according to Kalshi, which should give the team a major boost. Argentina’s supporting cast is strong too, featuring the likes of Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, and Alexis Mac Allister. They will be sweating on Messi’s fitness, but these players are accustomed to winning major trophies, and that experience could be vital this summer.
Host nations: odds on North America
The USA, Canada, and Mexico are the co-hosts of this tournament, so all three teams qualified automatically. We’ve assessed their key strengths and weaknesses.
USA’s odds to win
The USMNT trades at 1.3% on Kalshi and 1.6% on Polymarket to win the tournament outright — long odds, and growing even longer in recent weeks, but the group winner market tells a more interesting story. The USA is priced at 43% with Kalshi to win Group D, down from 48% a few weeks ago. This downgrade follows a couple of disappointing performances in March. The USMNT lost 5-2 to Belgium and 2-0 to Portugal in a pair of friendlies.
Yet the USA is still the favorite to win the group, ahead of Turkey (35%). That’s where the real action is for U.S. bettors right now. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, and Tyler Adams have proven themselves in Europe’s top leagues, and Ricardo Pepi has been prolific at PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie, giving the team a strong spine.
The USMNT haven’t made it past the World Cup quarterfinals in the modern era, so the outright price reflects that ceiling. However, they have a talented manager in Mauricio Pochettino, and home advantage could give them an edge — this is the first World Cup held in a fully regulated U.S. prediction market environment, so expect domestic volume on the USMNT to surge as the tournament approaches.
View: USA’s odds to win Group D
Mexico’s odds to win
Mexico trades at 1.3% on Kalshi and 1.1% on Polymarket to win the World Cup, putting them behind the major European favorites and the South American heavyweights in the outright market. El Tri have a strong, experienced team led by Edson Álvarez, César Montes, and Raúl Jiménez, and they should thrive in the humid conditions with home fans behind them. It’s also worth noting that Mexico played far better than the USMNT in March. They drew 0-0 with Portugal and 1-1 with Belgium, whereas both of those teams comfortably beat the USA.
El Tri tend to reach the knockout stage of the World Cup, but they rarely make it past the Round of 16 — and the market reflects that historical ceiling. The group stage market may offer better value than the outright, as Mexico should be competitive against South Korea, South Africa, and Czechia.
View: Mexico’s odds to win Group A
Canada’s odds to win
Canada is the longest shot among the three co-hosts, trading at 0.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The outright odds are steep, but Canada’s trajectory has been impressive — they finished top of the North American World Cup qualifying group in 2022, ahead of Mexico and the USMNT, and reached the semifinals of Copa América in 2024.
The group stage qualification market is where bettors should focus, as the Canucks have a realistic path through a group with Switzerland, Qatar, and a playoff qualifier. Key players like Jonathan David and Tajon Buchanan need to stay healthy though, as the squad lacks depth beyond its starting XI. David scored twice in an underwhelming 2-2 friendly draw with Iceland in March. The biggest question mark is captain Alphonso Davies, who has struggled with injuries this season. He missed several months with a torn ACL, and he then sustained a hamstring injury in March, so the team will be sweating on his fitness.
View:Canada’s odds to win Group B
Odds by group
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |
World Cup prediction markets
The top prediction sites are already offering a wide range of World Cup markets. They will continue to add extra markets as the tournament approaches. These are the main options to consider right now:
Tournament winner
This is the main World Cup futures market. Kalshi lists it as “Men’s World Cup winner?” and Polymarket calls it “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” — same underlying question, different naming conventions. The market has already generated more than $4.0M in combined volume. You simply predict which team will win the World Cup by buying yes/no contracts on any team, including those that still need to navigate the playoffs.
If you think a team will win the World Cup, buy “yes” contracts. If not, you can buy “no” contracts. You’ll also be able to sell your contracts before they settle. This gives you the chance to lock in a guaranteed profit if the market moves in your favor.
Qualify for a certain stage
This could be a much safer option than picking the World Cup winner. Instead, you can bet on a team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. For example, you might opt for the USA to reach the Round of 16, England to reach the quarterfinals, or Spain to reach the semifinals.
It will be a ferociously competitive tournament, featuring the world’s best teams, so it can be hard to predict the overall winner. It’s often far safer to map out a team’s path to a specific stage. Kalshi is offering contracts on whether teams will reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final.
Group winner
The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams. That’s a 50% increase on the 32 teams that contested the last World Cup four years ago. They’ve been split into 12 groups, and each group features four teams.
You can predict the winner of each group. Some groups have a heavy favorite, like Spain in Group H, Argentina in Group L, and Brazil in Group C. Others are much tighter. For example, the USMNT is the favorite in Group D, but the market gives them just a 51% chance of success.
Group qualifiers
The top two teams in each group will qualify for the knockout stage, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The other two teams will pack their bags and head home. You can buy yes/no contracts on whether each team will qualify from their groups.
It’s not really worth buying “yes” contracts on heavy favorites like Spain, France, Argentina, England, and Brazil, as the upside is too low. Instead, it’s best to dig a little deeper and try to find teams that could upset their more established rivals. For example, African champions Senegal may be capable of causing an upset against Norway in Group I, while the battle between Ecuador and Ivory Coast in Group E looks fascinating.
Golden Boot
The Golden Boot is awarded to the top goalscorer at the World Cup. You need to consider which teams are likely to make the latter stages of the tournament when making predictions on this market.
Kylian Mbappé won it in 2022 after France reached the final, while Harry Kane claimed the Golden Boot in 2018 following England’s run to the semifinals. They’re the top two contenders this year, followed by Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Luis Díaz, Erling Haaland, and Cristiano Ronaldo. One dark horse to watch is Germany’s Nick Woltemade, who signed for Newcastle for a club-record fee and has hit the ground running in the Premier League. Kalshi lists this market as “FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner.”
World Cup props and special markets
Both platforms offer World Cup prop contracts beyond the standard outright and group markets. These are the live props available right now:
- “Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, currently trading at 92% yes with $16K in volume. The 39-year-old hasn’t officially confirmed whether he’ll suit up for Argentina, making this one of the most actively debated World Cup props. You can also predict whether Cristiano Ronaldo (97%) and Lamine Yamal (91%) will play.
- “Messi vs Ronaldo” World Cup goal contributions” — Available on Polymarket, allowing you to speculate on whether Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo will have the most goal contributions (goals and assists). Messi is the 53% favorite.
- “Which continent will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” — Available on Polymarket, with Europe priced at 67% and $5.1K in volume. It’s also live on Kalshi, where Europe is priced at 64%. Given that four of the top five favorites are European, this contract offers a way to bet on the broader trend rather than picking a single team.
- “2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?” — Available on Polymarket, with $768K in volume, making it the largest non-outright World Cup market on the platform. Individual contracts cover teams still navigating the playoff path, including Italy (66% to qualify) and DR Congo (85%).
- “FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay” — Available on Polymarket, trading at 20%. This bundles multiple qualification outcomes into a single contract for traders looking for a high-risk, high-reward play.
- “Will Iran Participate?” Iran is priced at 80% with Kalshi to participate in the World Cup. The team qualified for the tournament, but ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have cast doubt on their participation.
Kalshi offers two off-the-field World Cup props worth watching:
- “Who will sing the next World Cup song?” — Available on Kalshi. FIFA debuted its first official anthem, “Desire” by Robbie Williams and Laura Pausini, at the 2025 Club World Cup, and this contract lets traders predict the artist behind the next World Cup song.
- “Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup this year?” — Available on Kalshi. The U.S. travel ban has restricted fans from Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal from attending matches, and geopolitical tensions around tariffs have raised questions about whether any European nation could withdraw. This contract captures that uncertainty.
Expect both platforms to add more props as the tournament approaches, particularly around player-specific markets and match-level props.
Markets on specific World Cup matches
Kalshi has already released markets on the first round of group stage games. Right now, you’ll only find contracts on the result of each game. There are three options: Team A to win, a tie, or Team B to win. As always, you can buy “yes” contracts if you think a team will win their opening World Cup match.
Prediction sites will release more markets closer to kick-off. These are the main markets to look out for:
- Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can predict which team will cover the spread. For example, you might find Argentina -1.5 against Algeria. If you expect Argentina to win by a margin of at least 2 goals, buy “yes” contracts on Argentina. If you think Algeria will win, tie, or lose by a single goal, buy “yes” on Algeria.
- Total goals: A simple yes/no contract on whether both teams will combine for a certain number of goals. For instance, the line might be set at 2.5 goals. If you expect at least 3 goals in the game, buy “yes.” If not, buy “no.”
- Both teams to score: Another straightforward yes/no prediction on whether both teams will find the back of the net.
- Goalscorer: You can predict whether a specific player will score during the match too. Once again, just make a yes/no prediction.
These markets are settled at the end of regulation time (90 minutes, plus any injury-time). They don’t include extra-time or penalties when it comes to knockout stage games.
Where to trade or bet World Cup
You’ll find lots of World Cup markets on the leading prediction sites. These are the top five to consider:
Kalshi: This app is available nationwide, and it offers deeper liquidity than rival prediction sites. It’s typically easy to open contracts and exit positions on popular markets like World Cup games. The fees are competitive (much lower than the juice charged by sportsbooks), and the platform is accessible. There are lots of World Cup markets too.
Polymarket: Another established prediction site, which operates on a nationwide basis. It’s a major rival to Kalshi, with a very similar user interface. The spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket can be significant, so it’s worth checking both sites before making your predictions. Polymarket has a different fee structure too, so it’s often cheaper to use this site.
DraftKings: The Boston-based gambling giant recently expanded into prediction markets after buying regulated site Railbird. Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions isn’t available nationwide, but the site launched in 38 states. There are no World Cup markets yet, but we expect them to appear in the build-up to the tournament.
Fanatics: The Florida-based retailer has expanded into sports betting and casino gaming in recent years, and it has now jumped on the prediction markets bandwagon. Fanatics Markets launched in 24 states in December 2025, and it could expand as the World Cup approaches.
Underdog: The company teamed up with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets in 2025. Underdog Predict doesn’t offer the same sort of liquidity that you’ll find at Kalshi, but it’s another platform that’s gaining momentum, so it could emerge as a credible rival by the time the World Cup kicks off.
World Cup resolution criteria
Understanding the resolution criteria is the most important part of trading on prediction markets. Here’s how World Cup contracts will settle, and what you need to know before placing a trade. Learn more about how Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts.
Settlement date: The main tournament winner market will be settled on July 20, 2026. That’s one day after the final.
Resolution source: Prediction sites will use FIFA as the primary source for resolving contracts, with credible reporting as backup. Kalshi uses FIFA and ESPN, while Polymarket states: “The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”
How elimination works in contracts: If a team is eliminated (knocked out in the group stage or a knockout round), the contract resolves to “no” immediately. This is the case at Kalshi and Polymarket.
Cancellation/postponement clause: Per Polymarket, if the World Cup is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “other.”
Extra time / penalties: The tournament winner is the team that lifts the trophy, regardless of how the final is decided (regulation, extra-time, or penalties). However, markets on individual matches are settled at the end of regulation time (not including extra-time or penalties).
48-team format implications: The top two from each of 12 groups will advance to round of 32, plus the eight best third-place finishers. The tournament will then follow a single-elimination knockout format through to the final.