$789.7M Traded on 2026 World Cup Winner Markets as Spain Wins
Spain won the 2026 World Cup after beating Argentina 1-0 on July 19, 2026. DeFi Rate recorded $789.7 million in tracked trading volume across every team included in the winner markets on Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, and Gemini. This archived feed preserves the final market results and full probability history.
How All 2026 World Cup Team Odds Moved
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Norway was eliminated from the 2026 World Cup after losing to England in the quarterfinals. Andreas Schjelderup, but Jude Bellingham equalized just before halftime. Torbjorn Heggem thought he had restored Norway’s lead with a powerful header, but it was ruled out for a foul in the build-up. The game then went to extra time, and goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland spilled Morgan Rogers’ long-range strike. The ball fell to Bellingham, who fired in the winning goal.
Norway’s 2026 World Cup campaign
That defeat to England was a brutal end to an otherwise impressive World Cup campaign for the Norwegians. They began with an impressive 4-1 win against Iraq. The defense looked a little shaky, but Norway’s elite forwards made the difference. Erling Haaland scored twice, substitute Leo Østigård headed in captain Martin Ødegaard’s corner, and a late own-goal wrapped up a heavy win.
They then secured an impressive 3-2 win against Senegal on Matchday 2. Haaland scored another two goals, and Marcus Pederson was also on target. That left Norway level with France on six points apiece at the top of Group I. The teams met in Boston on Friday to determine who won the group. Norway boss Ståle Solbakken was clearly happy to settle for the runner-up spot. He rested 10 members of his regular starting 11, and the Norwegians duly lost 4-1.
The Norwegians then beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in the Round of 32, courtesy of goals from Antonio Nusa and Haaland. That teed up an intriguing Round of 16 clash with Brazil. Norway was the underdog, but two goals from Haaland earned his team a famous 2-1 win. The team played well against England in the quarterfinals, with Ødegaard running the show, but they were undone by Bellingham’s double.
Norway qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1998. It was be the team’s first appearance at a major tournament since Euro 2000, so it was surprising to see Norway listed among the favorites. However, the squad is stacked with elite attacking talent, so the Norwegians went deep into this tournament.
They finished top of their qualifying group, with eight wins from eight games. Norway beat Italy 3-0 at home and 4-1 on the road in qualifying, which sent shockwaves through world soccer. The team ultimately scored 37 goals and conceded just five times in their eight qualifying matches, including an 11-1 win against Moldova.
Haaland was the star of the show. The Manchester City striker scored 16 goals during the qualifying campaign, at a rate of two per game. That left him eight goals clear of his nearest challengers, Harry Kane, Memphis Depay, and Marko Arnautović. Haaland has already won the Premier League Golden Boot twice, plus the European Golden Shoe in 2022-23, confirming his status as a world-class striker. He cemented that status by scoring seven goals in five games at this summer’s tournament.
Yet Norway is certainly not a one-man team. Ødegaard, the Arsenal captain, pulls the strings with aplomb in midfield. Alexander Sørloth is another dangerous striker, while Jørgen Strand Larsen, Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa, and Thelo Asgaard provide even more firepower in attack.
However, there are question marks over Norway’s defense. The Norwegians conceded in all six of their games at the 2026 World Cup, and that ultimately proved to be their Achilles heel.
Key players to watch for Norway
Ødegaard and Haaland play for Arsenal and Man City, respectively, two clubs that routinely engage in a fierce battle for Premier League glory. These rivals always put club allegiances aside and unite when they play for Norway.
- Erling Haaland: The superstar striker has scored 62 goals in 55 games for Norway. That’s an astonishing strike rate, which shows just how lethal Haaland is in front of goal. He has broken all manner of records since he burst onto the scene in 2019, and he was phenomenal at the World Cup. Haaland scored seven goals in his first four appearances, but he couldn’t find a way past England’s defense in the quarterfinals.
- Martin Ødegaard: The Arsenal captain is Norway’s creator-in-chief. He also wears the captain’s armband for his country, and he played a starring role for the team at the World Cup.
- Alexander Sørloth: The towering center-forward was deployed on the right of Norway’s attack at the World Cup. It isn’t his most natural position, but he showed flashes of quality during the tournament.
- Kristoffer Ajer: Ajer was Norway’s defensive lynchpin at the World Cup. He’s very slick in possession, and he also made some crucial interventions for his team.
Where to bet on Norway
You can choose online sportsbooks or you can opt to trade with prediction markets, which are legal in 50 states. Norway’s World Cup markets were live on Kalshi and Polymarket, with additional event contracts available through DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics via the CME. The CME-routed options tend to have shallower liquidity and fewer market types than trading directly on Kalshi or Polymarket, so most serious traders gravitated toward the latter two. That will continue to be the case when Norway plays in the future.
Prediction markets have a meaningful edge over traditional sportsbooks in one key respect: they operate legally in all 50 states. Sports betting remains unavailable in roughly half the country, so Norway supporters in states that haven’t legalized wagering, Kalshi and Polymarket offered the only legal route to back the Norwegians at the 2026 World Cup. Soccer fans in Florida and Texas can check our guides for a full breakdown of what’s available where you live.
There can often be a spread between Kalshi and Polymarket, so it’s worth shopping around for the best prices before committing to a position. Fee structures also differ meaningfully across platforms. Platforms each have their own cost model, so reviewing prediction market fees before your first trade can make a real difference to your returns. See the latest welcome offers for new accounts.
