Norway World Cup Odds and Predictions

Author Martin Green

Martin Green

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Edited By Christopher Feery

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten...

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Norway has a 2.8% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup. The Norwegians have an elite attack, led by Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, and Alexander Sørloth. They should have no trouble scoring goals at this tournament, but a weak defense could be their downfall. Norway is also priced at just 26% to win Group I, so the team could face a perilous path to the final. Our aggregated cross-platform odds tracker provides current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison. Odds and implied probabilities updated every 30 minutes.

Match preview and odds and predictions

Norway has qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1998. This will be the team’s first appearance at a major tournament since Euro 2000, so it may seem surprising to see Norway listed among the favorites. However, the squad is stacked with elite attacking talent, so the Norwegians could go deep into this tournament.

They finished top of their qualifying group, with eight wins from eight games. Norway beat Italy 3-0 at home and 4-1 on the road in qualifying, which sent shockwaves through world soccer. The team ultimately scored 37 goals and conceded just five times in their eight qualifying matches, including an 11-1 win against Moldova.

Haaland was the star of the show. The Manchester City striker scored 16 goals during the qualifying campaign, at a rate of two per game. That left him eight goals clear of his nearest challengers, Harry Kane, Memphis Depay, and Marko Arnautović. Haaland has already won the Premier League Golden Boot twice, plus the European Golden Shoe in 2022-23, confirming his status as a world-class striker.

Yet Norway is certainly not a one-man team. Ødegaard, the Arsenal captain, pulls the strings with aplomb in midfield. Sørloth is another superb striker who recently scored a hat-trick for Atlético Madrid against Club Brugge in the Champions League knockout playoff, becoming the first Atlético player to achieve the feat in a Champions League knockout match. Jørgen Strand Larsen, Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa, and Thelo Asgaard provide even more firepower in attack, while Julian Ryerson is an excellent full-back.

However, there are question marks over Norway’s defense. There are some decent defenders, including Kristoffer Ajer and Marcus Holmgren Pedersen, but they could struggle against elite rivals like France. Norway lacks a world-class goalkeeper and a top-notch holding midfielder, too, which is why the team is only priced at 2.2% with Kalshi and 2.4% with Polymarket to win the World Cup. Traders are also pricing in Norway’s brutal group stage draw, as it will be tough for the Løvene to get the better of France and Senegal.

Norway is currently 31st in the FIFA world rankings after losing to the Netherlands and drawing with Switzerland in March. However, they were understrength in both games, and they were only friendlies, so the players may have lacked motivation. They should be fired-up for the World Cup, and it will be interesting to see if Haaland can fire them to glory.

Norway group draw and tournament path

Norway will play in Group I, which also features France, Senegal, and Iraq (the confirmed winner of Intercontinental Playoff Path 2). That’s a fiendishly difficult assignment, as France is one of the favorites to win the tournament, while Senegal has a formidable squad.

• Norway vs Iraq (June 16, Boston): Norway will begin their group stage campaign against Iraq. It will be the clear favorite to win this game, as it looks superior to its opponents.
• Norway vs Senegal (June 22, East Rutherford): This could prove to be a pivotal clash between two quality teams. Senegal beat Morocco in the AFCON final in January. They’ve since been stripped of the title, but they’re appealing that decision. The Lions of Teranga have dangerous players like Sadio Mané, Ismaïla Sarr, Nicolas Jackson, and Iliman Ndiaye, so this looks like a potential bump in the road for Norway.
• Norway vs France (June 26, Boston): Norway’s group stage campaign concludes with an exciting game against France. The Løvene will be underdogs against a star-studded France team, which features the likes of Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and William Saliba. If they can pull off an upset, they will be viewed as serious contenders for World Cup glory.

Prediction markets expect Norway to finish second in Group I. If that’s the case, the Norwegians will face the runner-up from Group E in the Round of 32. Group E features Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Curaçao, any of whom could provide a stiff test. If they win that game, Noway could land a glamorous Round of 16 clash with Brazil. They would be underdogs for that match. If they secure an upset, they could then face England in the quarterfinals, Argentina or Portugal in the semifinals, and then Spain or France in the final.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: Premier League title rivals unite

Ødegaard and Haaland play for Arsenal and Man City, respectively, two clubs engaged in a fierce battle at the top of the Premier League. These rivals will need to put club allegiances aside and unite in a bid to lead Norway to international glory this summer.

• Erling Haaland: The superstar striker has scored 55 goals in 49 games for Norway. That’s an astonishing strike rate, which shows just how lethal Haaland is in front of goal. He has broken all manner of records since he burst onto the scene in 2019, and it could be time for him to take the World Cup by storm. Haaland recently scored a hat-trick in Man City’s 4-0 win against Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals, and he put Arsenal to the sword in a crucial Premier League game on April 19, suggesting that he remains as sharp as ever in front of goal.
• Martin Ødegaard: The Arsenal captain is Norway’s creator-in-chief. He also wears the captain’s armband for his country, and he will be vital to their chances of winning the World Cup this summer. If Ødegaard can provide Haaland with the service he needs, Norway could outscore any opponent. He’s struggled with injuries this season, so the team will be sweating on his fitness ahead of the World Cup.
• Alexander Sørloth: The towering center-forward is likely to partner Haaland in a fearsome Norwegian attack at this tournament. He has scored vital goals for Atlético Madrid this season, and he’ll be dangerous in the penalty area.
• Kristoffer Ajer: Ajer will be Norway’s defensive lynchpin at the World Cup. He’s very slick in possession, but he isn’t the most rugged defender, so it remains to be seen if he can cope with elite forwards.

Props, futures and qualifiers for Norway

Norway’s outright winner contract pays out if the Løvene lift the trophy, and resolves to “No” the moment they’re eliminated. Kalshi lists Fox Sports, ESPN, and The Wall Street Journal as its resolution sources for this market; Polymarket relies on FIFA and ESPN. Both markets settle on July 20, 2026, the day after the final. There are some other interesting markets on Norway’s World Cup prospects:

• Group I winner: Norway is priced at 21% on Kalshi to win Group I. Polymarket traders are slightly less bullish, as Norway trades at 20% there. France is the clear favorite on both sites, but Norway is ahead of Senegal in traders’ estimations.
• Qualify for the knockout stage: Norway has an 84% chance of reaching the knockout stage, according to Kalshi. They need to secure a top-two finish in Group I, or they must be one of the eight best third-place teams.
• Reach a specific round: You can back Norway to qualify for the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final. Kalshi gives Norway a 71% chance of qualifying for the Round of 16, but only a 44% chance of making the quarterfinals.
• Golden Boot: Haaland is the third most likely player to finish as the top scorer of the 2026 World Cup. He’s priced at 9%, leaving him behind only Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane in this market. Haaland is a phenomenal finisher, but it remains to be seen if Norway will play enough games for him to win the Golden Boot.
• World Cup prop markets: Beyond the standard futures, Kalshi carries a range of novelty contracts you won’t find at a traditional sportsbook. Current examples include who performs the official World Cup song, whether Donald Trump attends the final, and whether any US-hosted matches get relocated. These markets illustrate one of the core advantages prediction markets hold over sportsbooks for major sporting events.

Where to bet on Norway at the 2026 World Cup

You can choose online sportsbooks or you can opt to trade with prediction markets, which are legal in 50 states. Prediction markets allow you to get in and out of Norway easily. Norway’s World Cup markets are live on Kalshi and Polymarket, with additional event contracts available through DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics via the CME. The CME-routed options tend to have shallower liquidity and fewer market types than trading directly on Kalshi or Polymarket, so most serious traders will gravitate toward the latter two. 

• Kalshi currently leads on market variety, with tournament winner, Group I winner, round-by-round advancement, and Golden Boot all available.
• Polymarket covers the outright winner and the Group I winner. Both platforms are expected to add further Norway-specific contracts as the tournament approaches.

Prediction markets have a meaningful edge over traditional sportsbooks in one key respect: they operate legally in all 50 states. Sports betting remains unavailable in roughly half the country, so Norway supporters in states that haven’t legalized wagering, Kalshi and Polymarket may be the only legal route to back the Løvene this summer. Soccer fans in California and Texas can check our guides for a full breakdown of what’s available where they live.

There can often be a spread between Kalshi and Polymarket, so it’s worth shopping around for the best prices before committing to a position. Fee structures also differ meaningfully across platforms. Platforms each have their own cost model, so reviewing prediction market fees before your first trade can make a real difference to your returns. See the latest sign-up offers for new accounts.