Norway World Cup Odds: Group I, Squad and Qualifier Predictions

Author Martin Green

Martin Green

Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin...

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Edited By Christopher Feery

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten...

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Norway has a 4.9% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup after beating Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16. The Norwegians were trading at just 1.9% prior to that win, but traders are now more bullish on them. They have an elite attack, led by Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, and Alexander Sørloth, and they’ve had no trouble scoring goals at this tournament, but a weak defense could be their downfall. Our aggregated cross-platform odds tracker provides current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison. Odds and implied probabilities updated every 30 minutes.

Norway predictions and odds analysis

Traders give Norway a 4.9 chance of winning the World Cup this summer. The Norwegians began their campaign with an impressive 4-1 win against Iraq. The defense looked a little shaky, but Norway’s elite forwards made the difference. Erling Haaland scored twice, substitute Leo Østigård headed in captain Martin Ødegaard’s header, and a late own-goal wrapped up a heavy win.

They then secured an impressive 3-2 win against Senegal on Matchday 2. Haaland scored another two goals, and Marcus Pederson was also on target. That left Norway level with France on six points apiece at the top of Group I. The teams met in Boston on Friday to determine who won the group. Norway boss Ståle Solbakken was clearly happy to settle for the runner-up spot. He rested 10 members of his regular starting 11, and the Norwegians duly lost 4-1.

The Norwegians then beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in the Round of 32, courtesy of goals from Antonio Nusa and Haaland. That teed up an intriguing Round of 16 clash with Brazil. Norway was the underdog, but two goals from Haaland earned his team a famous 2-1 win.

Norway has qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1998. This will be the team’s first appearance at a major tournament since Euro 2000, so it may seem surprising to see Norway listed among the favorites. However, the squad is stacked with elite attacking talent, so the Norwegians could go deep into this tournament.

They finished top of their qualifying group, with eight wins from eight games. Norway beat Italy 3-0 at home and 4-1 on the road in qualifying, which sent shockwaves through world soccer. The team ultimately scored 37 goals and conceded just five times in their eight qualifying matches, including an 11-1 win against Moldova.

Haaland was the star of the show. The Manchester City striker scored 16 goals during the qualifying campaign, at a rate of two per game. That left him eight goals clear of his nearest challengers, Harry Kane, Memphis Depay, and Marko Arnautović. Haaland has already won the Premier League Golden Boot twice, plus the European Golden Shoe in 2022-23, confirming his status as a world-class striker.

Yet Norway is certainly not a one-man team. Ødegaard, the Arsenal captain, pulls the strings with aplomb in midfield. Alexander Sørloth is another superb striker who recently scored a hat-trick for Atlético Madrid against Club Brugge in the Champions League knockout playoff, becoming the first Atlético player to achieve the feat in a Champions League knockout match. Jørgen Strand Larsen, Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa, and Thelo Asgaard provide even more firepower in attack, while Julian Ryerson is an excellent full-back.

However, there are question marks over Norway’s defense. There are some decent defenders, including Kristoffer Ajer and Marcus Holmgren Pedersen, but they could struggle against elite rivals like France. Norway lacks a world-class goalkeeper and a top-notch holding midfielder, too, which is why the team is only priced at 1.9% with Kalshi and Polymarket to win the World Cup.

Norway group draw and tournament path

Norway played in Group I, which also featured France, Senegal, and Iraq. That was a fiendishly difficult assignment, as France is one of the favorites to win the tournament, while Senegal has a formidable squad, but Norway finished second.

• Norway vs Iraq (June 16, Boston): Norway began their group stage campaign with a 4-1 win against Iraq. Erling Haaland scored twice, underscoring his reputation as one of the world’s deadliest strikers.
• Norway vs Senegal (June 22, East Rutherford): The Norwegians earned a 3-2 win against Senegal in this game. Marcus Pederson opened the scoring after pouncing on an error from defender Kalidou Koulibaly, and Haaland scored twice to seal the victory. Senegal’s Ismaïla Sarr also scored twice, and he missed a late header, which was a relief for Norway.
• Norway vs France (June 26, Boston): Norway’s group stage campaign concluded with a 4-1 defeat to France. The manager rested his key players for this game, but the reserves played pretty well, despite the scoreline.

The Norwegians beat Ivory Coast, the runner-up from Group E, 2-1 in the Round of 32. They then beat Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16. Norway will now head to Miami to face England in the quarterfinals. If it wins, it could play against Argentina in the semifinals, and then Spain or France in the final.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see who has the best odds to win the World Cup 2026.

Key players to watch: Premier League title rivals unite

Ødegaard and Haaland play for Arsenal and Man City, respectively, two clubs engaged in a fierce battle at the top of the Premier League. These rivals will need to put club allegiances aside and unite in a bid to lead Norway to international glory this summer.

• Erling Haaland: The superstar striker has scored 55 goals in 50 games for Norway. That’s an astonishing strike rate, which shows just how lethal Haaland is in front of goal. He has broken all manner of records since he burst onto the scene in 2019, and it could be time for him to take the World Cup by storm. Haaland scored twice in Norway’s 4-1 win against Iraq on Matchday 1, before adding two more goals to his tally in the 3-2 win against Senegal. He was rested for Matchday 3, but he scored against Ivory Coast at the start of the knockout stage. Haaland added two more goals against Brazil, taking his tally to seven goals in four games at this tournament.
• Martin Ødegaard: The Arsenal captain is Norway’s creator-in-chief. He also wears the captain’s armband for his country, and he will be vital to their chances of winning the World Cup this summer. If Ødegaard can provide Haaland with the service he needs, Norway could outscore any opponent. He’s struggled with a series of injuries this season, but he’s now back in the Arsenal starting lineup, and he just lifted the Premier League trophy, which should boost his morale ahead of the World Cup. Ødegaard also scored in Norway’s 1-1 draw with Morocco in June, before providing an assist in the 4-1 victory over Iraq. He also set up one of Haaland’s goals in Norway’s 3-2 win against Senegal, before assisting Antonio Nusa in the 2-1 win against Ivory Coast.
• Alexander Sørloth: The towering center-forward is likely to partner Haaland in a fearsome Norwegian attack at this tournament. He has scored vital goals for Atlético Madrid this season, and he’ll be dangerous in the penalty area.
• Kristoffer Ajer: Ajer will be Norway’s defensive lynchpin at the World Cup. He’s very slick in possession, but he isn’t the most rugged defender, so it remains to be seen if he can cope with elite forwards.

Props, futures and qualifiers for Norway

Norway’s outright winner contract pays out if the Løvene lift the trophy, and resolves to “No” the moment they’re eliminated. Kalshi lists Fox Sports, ESPN, and The Wall Street Journal as its resolution sources for this market; Polymarket relies on FIFA and ESPN. Both markets settle on July 20, 2026, the day after the final. There are some other interesting markets on Norway’s World Cup prospects:

• Reach a specific round: You can back Norway to qualify for the semifinals or the final.
• Golden Boot: Haaland one of the leading contenders to finish as the top scorer of the 2026 World Cup. He’s priced at 13.5% with prediction markets, leaving him behind only Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi.
• World Cup prop markets: Beyond the standard futures, Kalshi carries a range of novelty contracts you won’t find at a traditional sportsbook. Current examples include who performs the official World Cup song, whether Donald Trump attends the final, and whether any US-hosted matches get relocated. These markets illustrate one of the core advantages prediction markets hold over sportsbooks for major sporting events.

Where to bet on Norway at the 2026 World Cup

You can choose online sportsbooks or you can opt to trade with prediction markets, which are legal in 50 states. Prediction markets allow you to get in and out of Norway easily. Norway’s World Cup markets are live on Kalshi and Polymarket, with additional event contracts available through DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics via the CME. The CME-routed options tend to have shallower liquidity and fewer market types than trading directly on Kalshi or Polymarket, so most serious traders will gravitate toward the latter two. 

• Kalshi currently leads on market variety, with tournament winner, round-by-round advancement, and Golden Boot all available. There are loads of markets on each game too.
• Polymarket covers the outright winner, advancement, and player awards like the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball. You can also consider markets on each game, including the spread, total, moneyline, to advance, both teams to score, total corners, goalscorers, assists, and more.
• FanDuel Predicts also has soccer markets, though you will need to be in a state without regulated betting to access it. If you live in Pennsylvania or New York, you can opt for Kalshi.

Prediction markets have a meaningful edge over traditional sportsbooks in one key respect: they operate legally in all 50 states. Sports betting remains unavailable in roughly half the country, so Norway supporters in states that haven’t legalized wagering, Kalshi and Polymarket may be the only legal route to back the Løvene this summer. Soccer fans in Florida and Texas can check our guides for a full breakdown of what’s available where you live.

There can often be a spread between Kalshi and Polymarket, so it’s worth shopping around for the best prices before committing to a position. Fee structures also differ meaningfully across platforms. Platforms each have their own cost model, so reviewing prediction market fees before your first trade can make a real difference to your returns. See the latest welcome offers for new accounts.