England World Cup Odds and Predictions

Author Martin Green

Martin Green

Editor Christopher Feery

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…

England predictions and odds analysis

England had an excellent record at major tournaments during Gareth Southgate’s eight-year tenure as manager. The Three Lions were runners-up at Euro 2020 and Euro 2024, and they reached the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. They also qualified for the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup, where they suffered an unlucky defeat to France.

However, Southgate could never get his hands on a trophy, and he resigned after England’s 2-1 defeat to Spain in the Euro 2024 final. Thomas Tuchel replaced him, and the highly-rated German coach could be the man to end their trophy drought. He won major trophies with Bayern Munich, PSG, Chelsea, and Borussia Dortmund, including the Champions League with Chelsea in 2021.

Some traders may be buying “yes” contracts on England now in the hope of selling them for a healthy profit if England reaches the quarterfinals. That seems like a sensible approach, as the Three Lions have a clear path to the last eight. These players know how to win big knockout stage games at major tournaments, and Tuchel is a very astute tactician.

However, it’s also easy to see why England only trades at 11% on aggregate, whereas Spain trades above 17%. Spain outclassed England in the final of Euro 2024, and the Spanish midfield looks stronger than England’s. The Three Lions have an underwhelming record against Spain and France, but they certainly have enough quality to win this tournament.

Their greatest strength is in attack, with the likes of Bukayo Saka and Morgan Rogers supporting Kane. Declan Rice is a superb midfielder, and they have a great deal of pace and creativity in wide areas. England’s defensive record is its biggest question mark, but Tuchel will have them well-drilled, making it hard for opponents to break them down. That explains why England is ahead of teams like France and Argentina in traders’ estimations.

England group draw and tournament path

England will take on Croatia, Ghana, and Panama in Group L. The Three Lions are the clear favorites to win the group, priced at 71% with Polymarket and 67% with Kalshi.

• England vs Croatia (June 17, Dallas): These familiar foes will renew hostilities in Texas on Matchday 1. Croatia beat England after extra time in the 2018 World Cup semifinals, but England has had the upper hand since then. They’ve played one another three times in the ensuing years, with two wins for England and one draw. This game could determine who wins the group. Kalshi traders make England the 58% favorite to prevail.
• England vs Ghana (June 23, Boston): England will face a physical test against a powerful Ghana team on Matchday 2. The Three Lions will need to contain Man City forward Antoine Semenyo, one of the Premier League’s top scorers this season. Semenyo was born and raised in England. He opted to represent Ghana, and he could torment the English defense. England is priced at 79% on Kalshi to win this game.
• England vs Panama (June 27, East Rutherford): England will be the heavy favorite to beat Panama in its final group stage game. If the Three Lions have already sewn up qualification, Tuchel may rest some players, but they should still have enough quality to win this match. That’s reflected in prediction markets, with Kalshi traders giving England an 80% chance of success.

If England wins the group, it will face the team that finishes third in Group E, H, I, J, or K in the Round of 32. The Three Lions would be heavy favorites for that game. Their most likely opponent in the Round of 16 would then be Mexico. That would be a tricky game, but once again, England would be the clear favorite to outclass El Tri.

The Three Lions could then potentially face Brazil in the quarterfinals, Argentina in the semifinals, and Spain in the final. That would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won 2-1.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch

England boasts one of the deepest and most talented squads in world soccer right now. These are the top four players to keep an eye on in the build-up to the tournament:

• Harry Kane: England’s captain won the Golden Boot after firing in six goals at the 2018 World Cup. Kane has scored 78 goals in 112 games for the Three Lions, and he has also been prolific for Bayern Munich over the past few years, scoring close to a goal per game for the German champions. England fans will hope he can replicate that form for his country.
• Declan Rice: Arsenal’s midfield general is the favorite to be named PFA Player of the Year in the Premier League this season, priced at 41% with Polymarket. Rice is no longer just a holding midfielder, as he has added goals and assists to his game in recent years. He will be crucial to England’s chances of success at this tournament.
• Morgan Rogers: England boasts the best collection of No. 10s in world soccer. The Three Lions can call upon Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, and many more elite playmakers, but Rogers is currently the first choice. He was on fire for Aston Villa in the first half of the season, but the goals have dried up in recent months, so he’ll need to recapture his best form.
• Marc Guehi: The former Crystal Palace captain is the standout player in a slightly weak England defense. He has been on an upward curve in recent years, and his superb form earned him a January transfer to Man City. Guehi should improve under Pep Guardiola’s tutelage over the next few months, which is great news for England.

Related prediction markets for England

If England wins the World Cup, “yes” contracts will settle at $1. They’ll be settled one day after the final, on July 20, 2026. If the Three Lions are eliminated at any stage, the contract will immediately resolve to “no.” Both Kalshi and Polymarket will use FIFA as their settlement resource, while Polymarket is also using ESPN.

There are lots of other markets on England at the 2026 World Cup:

• Group L winner: England is the heavy favorite to finish ahead of Croatia, Ghana, and Panama in Group L. The team is priced at 71% with Polymarket and 67% with Kalshi.
• Qualify for the knockout stage: The Three Lions have an 82% chance of reaching the Round of 16, according to Kalshi traders.
• Reach a certain round: You can back England to reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final with Kalshi. Backing them to reach the quarterfinals looks appealing, as they should avoid elite opponents until that stage of the tournament.
• Golden Boot: Kane leads the Golden Boot market on Kalshi at 13%, ahead of Kylian Mbappe at 12% and Lamine Yamal at 9%. Kane is looking to add to the Golden Boot he won at the 2018 World Cup.

More World Cup markets

Where to bet on England at the World Cup

Kalshi and Polymarket are both offering a wide range of markets on England’s World Cup campaign. You’ll find tournament winner and group winner markets on both sites, while Kalshi also has group qualifier markets. Kalshi lets you predict whether England will reach a certain stage, too, and they both offer Golden Boot markets on Harry Kane.

There are already prediction markets on the World Cup group stage games at Kalshi and DraftKings Predictions. England are priced at 58% to beat Croatia, 79% to beat Ghana, and 80% to beat Panama on Kalshi. We expect more markets to appear in the weeks ahead, so we’ll continue updating this page. 

Before placing your first trade, it’s worth reviewing prediction market fees across platforms, as trading costs vary significantly across sites. Not sure which platform to use? See our Kalshi vs. Polymarket breakdown for a full comparison of fees, markets, and liquidity, and check out the latest sign-up offers for new accounts.