Odds for Canada to Win World Cup

Match preview and odds analysis

Canada has a slim chance of winning the World Cup this summer, according to prediction markets. The CANMNT is trading at 0.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket, which highlights the scale of the challenge.

It’s easy to see why traders are bearish, as Canada has a dismal record at the World Cup: six defeats from six games, with just two goals scored and 12 conceded. The CANMNT has only ever qualified for this tournament on two occasions — in 1986 and 2022, finishing bottom of their group both times. All previous World Cup winners have come from Europe or South America — a North American team has never come close to winning the event.

However, Canada is up to No. 29 in the FIFA world rankings, ahead of strong teams like Norway and Egypt. The CANMNT has been on an upward curve in recent years. They finished top of the CONCACAF qualifying group in 2022, ahead of Mexico and the USMNT, and reached the semifinals of Copa América in 2024. Canada will also play its group stage games on home soil in Toronto and Vancouver, which should give the team a significant boost.

It’s worth noting that they’re heavily reliant on a few key players. Injuries to Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Tajon Buchanan, or Stephen Eustáquio could derail their campaign. Davies is Canada’s captain and star player, but he has a bad injury record. He suffered a thigh strain in Bayern Munich’s win against Atalanta in March, and he missed Canada’s friendlies in March.

Manager Jesse Marsch will be sweating on Davies’ fitness as the World Cup approaches, as he’s vital to Canada’s counterattacking game. Canada had 10 key absences during the March international break. Moïse Bombito, Derek Cornelius, and Alistair Johnston are all sidelined with significant hamstring injuries. This raises concerns about a defensive crisis ahead of the World Cup.

Star striker Jonathan David is also on an eight-game goal drought for Juventus in Serie A, which is concerning, although he scored twice in Canada’s 2-2 draw with Iceland in a March friendly. He will need to be more consistent if Canada is to make a deep run into this tournament. The CANMNT drew 0-0 with Tunisia in another friendly at the end of March, giving Marsch much to ponder as he prepares for the tournament.

Group draw and tournament path: Canada’s route as a home underdog

Canada will play all of its group stage games on home soil in the first 48-team World Cup format. The Canadians are in Group B, along with Switzerland, Qatar, and Bosnia & Herzegovina. The top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a Round of 32.

• Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (June 12, Toronto): Canada opens its tournament at BMO Field against Bosnia & Herzegovina. The Bosnians pulled off a shock victory over Italy in the European playoffs in March. It’s the first time they’ve ever qualified for the World Cup, so it will be an exciting occasion for their fans. Canada will need to deal with veteran striker Edin Džeko, as he is still lethal in front of goal.
• Canada vs Qatar (June 18, Vancouver): This is arguably the most winnable game in the group for Canada. Qatar is ranked 56th in the FIFA world rankings, well below Canada at 29th. Qatar struggled as host nation in 2022, losing all three group stage games and scoring just one goal. With home advantage at BC Place and a partisan Vancouver crowd, Canada is priced at 81% on Kalshi to win this game.
• Canada vs Switzerland (June 24, Vancouver): The group stage closer could be a decider for second place. Switzerland is currently No. 18 in the FIFA world rankings and has a solid record at major tournaments — reaching the quarterfinals at Euro 2024. Canada might be an underdog, but the odds on Canada vs Switzerland improve significantly with home support in Vancouver. This is a matchup where home advantage could be the difference. However, Kalshi makes Switzerland the favorite for this match.

If they finish second in Group B, Canada will face the runner-up from Group A in the Round of 32. That’s likely to be Mexico, South Korea, or South Africa. If the Canadians reach the Round of 16, they’ll play on home soil once again. However, they could then face an elite team like Portugal, and they would be heavy underdogs. If they continue to advance, they will run into the likes of Argentina, France, Spain, and England, and it would take a monumental effort to vanquish those teams.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: Can David fire Canada to victory?

Canada manager Jesse Marsch recently declared that “this is the best player pool in the history of the Canadian national team.” The squad is certainly stacked with promising young players, but a few star names stand out. Our prediction for Canada’s chances hinges largely on whether these key players stay fit through the tournament:

• Jonathan David: The Juventus striker will be Canada’s primary attacking threat at the World Cup. He has scored 39 goals in 75 games for the CANMNT, and he has the pace, movement, and finishing ability to light up this tournament. David has only scored seven goals in 41 appearances for Juventus this season, which is an underwhelming return, but he often raises his game for the national team. He scored twice in a 2-2 draw with Iceland in March, underscoring his value to the team.
• Alphonso Davies: The Bayern Munich left-back often plays in a more advanced role for Canada, which utilizes his pace and pinpoint crosses. Davies is Canada’s star player and its captain, but he has spent a lot of time on the sidelines with a series of injuries over the past few years. He tore his ACL on international duty in March 2025, and he didn’t return until December. He suffered muscular injuries in February and March this year, but Davies returned to the pitch for Bayern in April. Marsch is cautiously optimistic about Davies’ chances of making the World Cup, but he’ll need to get more minutes under his belt in the closing weeks of the season for Bayern Munich.
• Tajon Buchanan: Canada is always dangerous on the counterattack, with Buchanan and Davies leading the charge on the flanks. Buchanan plays for Villarreal in Spain, and he had a previous stint with Italian heavyweight Inter Milan, so he has experience of facing elite European opposition. Canada will need him to be at his brilliant best when they face Switzerland, Qatar and Bosnia & Herzegovina in the group stage.
• Stephen Eustáquio: The 29-year-old midfielder is the glue that holds this team together. Canada’s vice-captain is intelligent, technically gifted, composed in possession, and tireless off the ball. It will be fascinating to see him go up against the likes of Granit Xhaka at the World Cup. He joined LAFC on loan in February, as he wanted regular playing time ahead of the tournament after his minutes at Porto dried up. He is currently dealing with a leg injury complicated by a blood clot that developed during rehab. Eustáquio is recovering in Portugal, and he’s expected to return in April.

Related markets for Canada

Canada’s outright winner contract settles at $1 if they lift the trophy, or resolves to “no” immediately upon elimination. Kalshi uses FIFA as its settlement source; Polymarket uses FIFA and ESPN. Final settlement date: July 20, 2026.

The outright winner isn’t the only way to take a position on Canada at the World Cup. Here are some of the odds on Canada’s other contracts available at the top prediction market sites:

• Group B winner: A bet on whether Canada finishes first in their group. Canada has an 18% chance of winning the group, according to Kalshi traders. Switzerland is the heavy favorite at 67%.
• Qualify for the knockout stage: A yes/no contract on whether Canada reaches the Round of 32. Kalshi traders have given Canada a 52% chance of reaching the knockout stage. If they finish first or second, they’ll advance. Canada could also qualify if they’re one of the eight best third-place teams.
• Reach a specific round: You can also back Canada to reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final with Kalshi. The further Canada has to go, the lower the implied probability and the higher the potential payout.
• Golden Boot: A bet on which player will score the most goals at the World Cup. Jonathan David is trading below 1% to be the top scorer. Traditional strikers like Mbappé and Kane tend to lead this market.

Where to bet on Canada at the World Cup

Canada’s World Cup betting markets are available on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi currently has the deepest selection, including outright winner, Group B winner, knockout stage qualification, round-by-round advancement, and Golden Boot contracts. Polymarket carries the outright winner, Group B winner, and winning continent contracts, and is expected to expand its offerings as the tournament approaches.

Match-by-match contracts for Canada’s three group stage games haven’t launched yet, but we expect a full slate of Canada-specific props by June. Toronto and Vancouver are hosting all three group games, which should drive strong engagement from Canadian bettors.

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