Canada World Cup Odds: Davies Likely Out for Opener
Switzerland is the lock to win Group B at 53.5% on Polymarket, which means Canada and Bosnia are effectively playing for second — and the market has them within three points of each other (Canada 24.5%, Bosnia 21.5%). The June 12 head-to-head is still building liquidity, but prediction market consensus has France as a narrow home favorite at BMO Field, roughly 17.0% to win with the FIFA World Cup Winner at 16.4% and FIFA World Cup Winner - 11 at 16.3%. Realistic finish for both teams is the round of 32. Group B's expanded knockout slot makes that the modal outcome for whichever side takes second; the round of 16 is genuine upside, the quarterfinals are a big stretch. Tournament-winner pricing has Canada around +15000 (roughly 0.7% implied) and Bosnia further out. Our Canada World Cup odds feed aggregates live pricing from prediction markets, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG. Odds and data updated every 30 minutes.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CACanada
Vol $914.0K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.4%— +0.0%
P
0.4%
K
0.3%
FRFrance
Vol $870.3K
Spread 0.8%
Agg
17.0%— +0.0%
P
17.1%
K
16.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner
Vol $788
Spread —
Agg
16.4%↓ -0.2%
U
16.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 11
Vol $1.1K
Spread —
Agg
16.3%↑ +0.1%
U
16.3%
SPSpain
Vol $736.6K
Spread 0.7%
Agg
16.0%↓ -0.4%
K
16.7%
P
16.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 12
Vol $524
Spread —
Agg
11.6%↑ +0.1%
U
11.6%
ENEngland
Vol $914.8K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
11.4%↑ +0.3%
P
11.5%
K
10.9%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 16
Vol $2.4K
Spread —
Agg
10.5%↑ +0.6%
U
10.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 13
Vol $449
Spread —
Agg
9.5%↑ +0.5%
U
9.5%
POPortugal
Vol $891.3K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
9.5%↓ -0.1%
K
9.5%
P
9.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 14
Vol $368
Spread —
Agg
9.1%↑ +0.1%
U
9.1%
ARArgentina
Vol $1.1M
Spread 0.1%
Agg
8.9%↑ +0.2%
P
9.0%
K
8.9%
BRBrazil
Vol $714.9K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
8.3%↓ -0.1%
K
8.5%
P
8.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 17
Vol $228
Spread —
Agg
6.1%↑ +0.1%
U
6.1%
GEGermany
Vol $977.7K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
5.6%↓ -0.2%
K
5.8%
P
5.6%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 15
Vol $631
Spread —
Agg
4.2%↓ -0.6%
U
4.2%
TNthe Netherlands
Vol $11.7K
Spread —
Agg
4.0%↓ -0.1%
K
4.0%
NENetherlands
Vol $792.2K
Spread —
Agg
4.0%— +0.0%
P
4.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 2
Vol $226
Spread —
Agg
2.8%↑ +0.4%
U
2.8%
TNthe Norway
Vol $1.4K
Spread —
Agg
2.7%↑ +0.2%
K
2.7%
NONorway
Vol $1.0M
Spread —
Agg
2.6%↓ -0.2%
P
2.6%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 18
Vol $927
Spread —
Agg
2.4%↑ +0.1%
U
2.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 3
Vol $252
Spread —
Agg
2.3%— +0.0%
U
2.3%
BEBelgium
Vol $868.3K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
2.0%— +0.0%
K
2.0%
P
2.0%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 4
Vol $110
Spread —
Agg
1.9%— +0.0%
U
1.9%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 19
Vol $77
Spread —
Agg
1.9%↓ -0.2%
U
1.9%
COColombia
Vol $1.4M
Spread 0.2%
Agg
1.8%— +0.0%
K
2.0%
P
1.8%
JAJapan
Vol $762.9K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
1.7%— +0.0%
P
1.8%
K
1.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 21
Vol $72
Spread —
Agg
1.7%— +0.0%
U
1.7%
MOMorocco
Vol $1.0M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
1.6%— +0.0%
K
1.6%
P
1.6%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 24
Vol $118
Spread —
Agg
1.4%↓ -0.2%
U
1.4%
TUthe USA
Vol $30.8K
Spread —
Agg
1.4%— +0.0%
K
1.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 20
Vol $123
Spread —
Agg
1.3%↓ -0.1%
U
1.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 22
Vol $31
Spread —
Agg
1.3%— +0.0%
U
1.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 25
Vol $21
Spread —
Agg
1.3%— +0.0%
U
1.3%
MEMexico
Vol $1.6M
Spread —
Agg
1.3%↑ +0.1%
P
1.3%
TMthe Mexico
Vol $6.6K
Spread —
Agg
1.2%↑ +0.1%
K
1.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 26
Vol $53
Spread —
Agg
1.2%— +0.0%
U
1.2%
TUthe Uruguay
Vol $6.0K
Spread —
Agg
1.2%— +0.0%
K
1.2%
USUSA
Vol $1.0M
Spread —
Agg
1.2%— +0.0%
P
1.2%
URUruguay
Vol $1.1M
Spread —
Agg
1.2%— +0.0%
P
1.2%
TUTurkiye
Vol $2.0M
Spread —
Agg
1.2%↑ +0.2%
P
1.2%
TTthe Turkey
Vol $5.9K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%↑ +0.2%
K
1.0%
SWSwitzerland
Vol $970.0K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
1.0%↓ -0.1%
K
1.1%
P
1.0%
TCthe Croatia
Vol $24.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%↓ -0.1%
K
0.9%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 27
Vol $24
Spread —
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
U
0.9%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 36
Vol $3
Spread —
Agg
0.9%↑ +0.7%
U
0.9%
CRCroatia
Vol $2.2M
Spread —
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
P
0.9%
ECEcuador
Vol $2.3M
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.9%
K
0.8%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 23
Vol $5
Spread —
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
U
0.8%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 28
Vol $13
Spread —
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
U
0.8%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 38
Vol $3
Spread —
Agg
0.8%↑ +0.6%
U
0.8%
TSthe Senegal
Vol $4.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
K
0.8%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 31
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.7%↑ +0.3%
U
0.7%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 39
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.7%↑ +0.5%
U
0.7%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 41
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.7%↑ +0.5%
U
0.7%
SESenegal
Vol $683.8K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 29
Vol $18
Spread —
Agg
0.6%↓ -0.2%
U
0.6%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 32
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.6%↑ +0.3%
U
0.6%
AUAustria
Vol $955.0K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.5%
SWSweden
Vol $883.3K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 33
Vol $130
Spread —
Agg
0.5%↑ +0.1%
U
0.5%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 6
Vol $7
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.1%
U
0.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 34
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.4%↓ -0.1%
U
0.4%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 5
Vol $3
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.1%
U
0.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 7
Vol $4
Spread —
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
U
0.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 30
Vol $4
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -0.1%
U
0.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 37
Vol $9
Spread —
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
U
0.3%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $843.9K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $2.0M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.3%
P
0.3%
CZCzechia
Vol $925.1K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.3%
EGEgypt
Vol $980.5K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.3%
P
0.3%
SKSouth Korea
Vol $1.4M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.3%
P
0.3%
TSthe Scotland
Vol $27.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.3%
PAParaguay
Vol $775.9K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.3%
P
0.3%
SCScotland
Vol $711.2K
Spread —
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
P
0.3%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 8
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.5%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 9
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 10
Vol $5
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 35
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.2%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 40
Vol $3
Spread —
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 42
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 43
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 44
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.7%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 45
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 46
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 47
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
FWCFIFA World Cup Winner - 48
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.8%
U
0.2%
ALAlgeria
Vol $897.7K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
K
0.2%
P
0.2%
TGthe Ghana
Vol $68.4K
Spread —
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
K
0.2%
AUAustralia
Vol $10.1M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
K
0.2%
P
0.2%
IRIran
Vol $713.3K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.2%— +0.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
GHGhana
Vol $1.4M
Spread —
Agg
0.2%↓ -0.1%
P
0.2%
IRIraq
Vol $5.1K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.1%
CDCongo DR
Vol $576.9K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.1%
CVCape Verde
Vol $98.0K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
CUCuracao
Vol $21.9K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
HAHaiti
Vol $565.5K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
JOJordan
Vol $13.8K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
NZNew Zealand
Vol $365.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
PAPanama
Vol $654.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
QAQatar
Vol $509.1K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
SASouth Africa
Vol $275.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
TSAthe Saudi Arabia
Vol $908.3K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
TTthe Tunisia
Vol $6
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
UZUzbekistan
Vol $188.4K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
TUTunisia
Vol $332.5K
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
P
0.1%
TDthe Denmark
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TROthe Republic of Ireland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TIthe Italy
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TNIthe Northern Ireland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TPthe Poland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TRthe Romania
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TUthe Ukraine
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
TWthe Wales
Vol —
Spread —
Agg
——
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Canada | 0.4% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $914.0K |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FR France | 17.0% — +0.0% | 0.8% | $870.3K |
Kalshi
16.3%
|
Polymarket
17.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner | 16.4% ↓ -0.2% | — | $788 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
16.4%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 11 | 16.3% ↑ +0.1% | — | $1.1K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
16.3%
|
SP Spain | 16.0% ↓ -0.4% | 0.7% | $736.6K |
Kalshi
16.7%
|
Polymarket
16.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 12 | 11.6% ↑ +0.1% | — | $524 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
11.6%
|
EN England | 11.4% ↑ +0.3% | 0.6% | $914.8K |
Kalshi
10.9%
|
Polymarket
11.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 16 | 10.5% ↑ +0.6% | — | $2.4K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
10.5%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 13 | 9.5% ↑ +0.5% | — | $449 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
9.5%
|
PO Portugal | 9.5% ↓ -0.1% | 0.0% | $891.3K |
Kalshi
9.5%
|
Polymarket
9.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 14 | 9.1% ↑ +0.1% | — | $368 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
9.1%
|
AR Argentina | 8.9% ↑ +0.2% | 0.1% | $1.1M |
Kalshi
8.9%
|
Polymarket
9.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
BR Brazil | 8.3% ↓ -0.1% | 0.2% | $714.9K |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Polymarket
8.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 17 | 6.1% ↑ +0.1% | — | $228 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
6.1%
|
GE Germany | 5.6% ↓ -0.2% | 0.2% | $977.7K |
Kalshi
5.8%
|
Polymarket
5.6%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 15 | 4.2% ↓ -0.6% | — | $631 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
4.2%
|
TN the Netherlands | 4.0% ↓ -0.1% | — | $11.7K |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
NE Netherlands | 4.0% — +0.0% | — | $792.2K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
4.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 2 | 2.8% ↑ +0.4% | — | $226 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
2.8%
|
TN the Norway | 2.7% ↑ +0.2% | — | $1.4K |
Kalshi
2.7%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
NO Norway | 2.6% ↓ -0.2% | — | $1.0M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
2.6%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 18 | 2.4% ↑ +0.1% | — | $927 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
2.4%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 3 | 2.3% — +0.0% | — | $252 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
2.3%
|
BE Belgium | 2.0% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $868.3K |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Polymarket
2.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 4 | 1.9% — +0.0% | — | $110 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.9%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 19 | 1.9% ↓ -0.2% | — | $77 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.9%
|
CO Colombia | 1.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $1.4M |
Kalshi
2.0%
|
Polymarket
1.8%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
JA Japan | 1.7% — +0.0% | 0.5% | $762.9K |
Kalshi
1.3%
|
Polymarket
1.8%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 21 | 1.7% — +0.0% | — | $72 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.7%
|
MO Morocco | 1.6% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $1.0M |
Kalshi
1.6%
|
Polymarket
1.6%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 24 | 1.4% ↓ -0.2% | — | $118 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.4%
|
TU the USA | 1.4% — +0.0% | — | $30.8K |
Kalshi
1.4%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 20 | 1.3% ↓ -0.1% | — | $123 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.3%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 22 | 1.3% — +0.0% | — | $31 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.3%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 25 | 1.3% — +0.0% | — | $21 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.3%
|
ME Mexico | 1.3% ↑ +0.1% | — | $1.6M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TM the Mexico | 1.2% ↑ +0.1% | — | $6.6K |
Kalshi
1.2%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 26 | 1.2% — +0.0% | — | $53 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
1.2%
|
TU the Uruguay | 1.2% — +0.0% | — | $6.0K |
Kalshi
1.2%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
US USA | 1.2% — +0.0% | — | $1.0M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
UR Uruguay | 1.2% — +0.0% | — | $1.1M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TU Turkiye | 1.2% ↑ +0.2% | — | $2.0M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TT the Turkey | 1.0% ↑ +0.2% | — | $5.9K |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
SW Switzerland | 1.0% ↓ -0.1% | 0.1% | $970.0K |
Kalshi
1.1%
|
Polymarket
1.0%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TC the Croatia | 0.9% ↓ -0.1% | — | $24.1K |
Kalshi
0.9%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 27 | 0.9% — +0.0% | — | $24 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.9%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 36 | 0.9% ↑ +0.7% | — | $3 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.9%
|
CR Croatia | 0.9% — +0.0% | — | $2.2M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
EC Ecuador | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $2.3M |
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 23 | 0.8% — +0.0% | — | $5 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.8%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 28 | 0.8% — +0.0% | — | $13 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.8%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 38 | 0.8% ↑ +0.6% | — | $3 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.8%
|
TS the Senegal | 0.8% — +0.0% | — | $4.1K |
Kalshi
0.8%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 31 | 0.7% ↑ +0.3% | — | $2 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.7%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 39 | 0.7% ↑ +0.5% | — | $2 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.7%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 41 | 0.7% ↑ +0.5% | — | $2 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.7%
|
SE Senegal | 0.7% — +0.0% | — | $683.8K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 29 | 0.6% ↓ -0.2% | — | $18 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.6%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 32 | 0.6% ↑ +0.3% | — | $2 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.6%
|
AU Austria | 0.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $955.0K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
SW Sweden | 0.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $883.3K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 33 | 0.5% ↑ +0.1% | — | $130 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.5%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 6 | 0.4% ↓ -0.1% | — | $7 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.4%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 34 | 0.4% ↓ -0.1% | — | $2 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.4%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 5 | 0.3% ↓ -0.1% | — | $3 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.3%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 7 | 0.3% — +0.0% | — | $4 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.3%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 30 | 0.3% ↓ -0.1% | — | $4 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.3%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 37 | 0.3% — +0.0% | — | $9 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.3%
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.3% | $843.9K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
IC Ivory Coast | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $2.0M |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
CZ Czechia | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.3% | $925.1K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
EG Egypt | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $980.5K |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
SK South Korea | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $1.4M |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TS the Scotland | 0.3% — +0.0% | — | $27.0K |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
PA Paraguay | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $775.9K |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
SC Scotland | 0.3% — +0.0% | — | $711.2K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 8 | 0.2% ↓ -0.5% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 9 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 10 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $5 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 35 | 0.2% ↓ -0.2% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 40 | 0.2% — +0.0% | — | $3 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 42 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 43 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 44 | 0.2% ↓ -0.7% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 45 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 46 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $1 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 47 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
FWC FIFA World Cup Winner - 48 | 0.2% ↓ -0.8% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
0.2%
|
AL Algeria | 0.2% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $897.7K |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TG the Ghana | 0.2% — +0.0% | — | $68.4K |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
AU Australia | 0.2% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $10.1M |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
IR Iran | 0.2% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $713.3K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
GH Ghana | 0.2% ↓ -0.1% | — | $1.4M |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
IR Iraq | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.5% | $5.1K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
CD Congo DR | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.5% | $576.9K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
CV Cape Verde | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $98.0K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
CU Curacao | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $21.9K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
HA Haiti | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $565.5K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
JO Jordan | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $13.8K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
NZ New Zealand | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $365.2K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
PA Panama | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $654.2K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
QA Qatar | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $509.1K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
SA South Africa | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $275.2K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TSA the Saudi Arabia | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $908.3K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TT the Tunisia | 0.1% — +0.0% | — | $6 |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
UZ Uzbekistan | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $188.4K |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TU Tunisia | 0.1% — +0.0% | — | $332.5K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TD the Denmark | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TRO the Republic of Ireland | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TI the Italy | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TNI the Northern Ireland | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TP the Poland | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TR the Romania | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TU the Ukraine | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
TW the Wales | — — | — | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herz Predictions (Jun 12, 2026)
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CACanada
Vol $32.8K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
53.5%↑ +1.5%
G
54.5%
U
54.0%
O
54.0%
P
53.5%
DTDraw / Tie
Vol $14.9K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
26.5%↑ +1.5%
U
27.0%
O
27.0%
P
26.5%
G
25.5%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $32.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
20.5%↓ -1.5%
U
21.0%
O
21.0%
P
20.5%
G
20.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Canada | 53.5% ↑ +1.5% | 1.0% | $32.8K |
Polymarket
53.5%
|
Polymarket US
54.0%
|
Gemini
54.5%
|
OG
54.0%
|
DT Draw / Tie | 26.5% ↑ +1.5% | 1.5% | $14.9K |
Polymarket
26.5%
|
Polymarket US
27.0%
|
Gemini
25.5%
|
OG
27.0%
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 20.5% ↓ -1.5% | 1.0% | $32.2K |
Polymarket
20.5%
|
Polymarket US
21.0%
|
Gemini
20.0%
|
OG
21.0%
|
Match preview and odds analysis
Canada has a slim chance of winning the World Cup this summer, according to prediction markets. The CANMNT is trading at 0.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket, which highlights the scale of the challenge.
It’s easy to see why traders are bearish, as Canada has a dismal record at the World Cup: six defeats from six games, with just two goals scored and 12 conceded. The CANMNT has only ever qualified for this tournament on two occasions — in 1986 and 2022, finishing bottom of their group both times. All previous World Cup winners have come from Europe or South America — a North American team has never come close to winning the event.
However, Canada is now No. 30 in the FIFA world rankings, ahead of strong teams like Norway and Egypt. The CANMNT has been on an upward curve in recent years. They finished top of the CONCACAF qualifying group in 2022, ahead of Mexico and the USMNT, and reached the semifinals of Copa América in 2024. Canada will also play its group stage games on home soil in Toronto and Vancouver, which should give the team a significant boost.
It’s worth noting that they’re heavily reliant on a few key players. Injuries to Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Tajon Buchanan, or Stephen Eustáquio could derail their campaign. Davies is Canada’s captain and star player, but he has a bad injury record. He has suffered a suffered a series of muscular injuries this season, and he pulled his left hamstring in Bayern Munich’s Champions League game against PSG on May 6. The latest injury will keep him sidelined for several weeks, and his participation at the World Cup is uncertain.
Manager Jesse Marsch will be sweating on Davies’ fitness as the World Cup approaches, as he’s vital to Canada’s counterattacking game. He’s likely to miss the opener against Bosnia and Herzegovina, but he could return to play a part in Canada’s other group stage games.
Star striker Jonathan David finally broke a 10-game goal drought for Juventus when he scored in their 2-0 victory over Bologna on April 19, which is encouraging. He also scored twice in Canada’s 2-2 draw with Iceland in a March friendly, but a return of 11 goals in 53 games this season isn’t particularly impressive. He will need to be more consistent if Canada is to make a deep run into this tournament. The CANMNT drew 0-0 with Tunisia in another friendly at the end of March, giving Marsch much to ponder as he prepares for the tournament.
Group draw and tournament path: Canada’s route as a home underdog
| Market | Canada | Draw | Opponent | Prediction Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup winner | 0.5% | — | — | Kalshi |
| World Cup winner | 0.5% | — | — | Polymarket |
| vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (June 12, Toronto) | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| vs Qatar (June 18, Vancouver) | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| vs Switzerland (June 24, Vancouver) | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
Canada will play all of its group stage games on home soil in the first 48-team World Cup format. The Canadians are in Group B, along with Switzerland, Qatar, and Bosnia & Herzegovina. The top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a Round of 32.
- Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (June 12, Toronto): Canada opens its tournament at BMO Field against Bosnia & Herzegovina. The Bosnians pulled off a shock victory over Italy in the European playoffs in March. It’s the first time they’ve ever qualified for the World Cup, so it will be an exciting occasion for their fans. Canada will need to deal with veteran striker Edin Džeko, as he is still lethal in front of goal.
- Canada vs Qatar (June 18, Vancouver): This is arguably the most winnable game in the group for Canada. Qatar is ranked 56th in the FIFA world rankings, well below Canada at 29th. Qatar struggled as host nation in 2022, losing all three group stage games and scoring just one goal. With home advantage at BC Place and a partisan Vancouver crowd, Canada is priced at 81% on Kalshi to win this game.
- Canada vs Switzerland (June 24, Vancouver): The group stage closer could be a decider for second place. Switzerland is currently No. 18 in the FIFA world rankings and has a solid record at major tournaments — reaching the quarterfinals at Euro 2024. Canada might be an underdog, but the odds on Canada vs Switzerland improve significantly with home support in Vancouver. This is a matchup where home advantage could be the difference. However, Kalshi makes Switzerland the favorite for this match.
If they finish second in Group B, Canada will face the runner-up from Group A in the Round of 32. That’s likely to be Mexico, South Korea, or South Africa. If the Canadians reach the Round of 16, they’ll play on home soil once again. However, they could then face an elite team like Portugal, and they would be heavy underdogs. If they continue to advance, they will run into the likes of Argentina, France, Spain, and England, and it would take a monumental effort to vanquish those teams.
For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |
Key players to watch: Can David fire Canada to victory?
Canada manager Jesse Marsch recently declared that “this is the best player pool in the history of the Canadian national team.” The squad is certainly stacked with promising young players, but a few star names stand out. Our prediction for Canada’s chances hinges largely on whether these key players stay fit through the tournament:
- Jonathan David: The Juventus striker will be Canada’s primary attacking threat at the World Cup. He has scored 39 goals in 75 games for the CANMNT, and he has the pace, movement, and finishing ability to light up this tournament. David has only scored eight goals in 46 appearances for Juventus this season, which is an underwhelming return, but he often raises his game for the national team. He scored twice in a 2-2 draw with Iceland in March, underscoring his value to the team.
- Alphonso Davies: The Bayern Munich left-back often plays in a more advanced role for Canada, which utilizes his pace and pinpoint crosses. Davies is Canada’s star player and its captain, but he has spent a lot of time on the sidelines with a series of injuries over the past few years. He tore his ACL on international duty in March 2025, and he didn’t return until December. He suffered muscular injuries in February and March this year, before injuring his left hamstring in May. Davies will be out for several weeks, and he’s expected to miss Canada’s World Cup opener, casting a dark cloud over the team’s preparations for the tournament.
- Tajon Buchanan: Canada is always dangerous on the counterattack, with Buchanan and Davies leading the charge on the flanks. Buchanan plays for Villarreal in Spain, and he had a previous stint with Italian heavyweight Inter Milan, so he has experience of facing elite European opposition. Canada will need him to be at his brilliant best when they face Switzerland, Qatar and Bosnia & Herzegovina in the group stage.
- Stephen Eustáquio: The 29-year-old midfielder is the glue that holds this team together. Canada’s vice-captain is intelligent, technically gifted, composed in possession, and tireless off the ball. It will be fascinating to see him go up against the likes of Granit Xhaka at the World Cup. He joined LAFC on loan in February, as he wanted regular playing time ahead of the tournament after his minutes at Porto dried up. Eustáquio missed several weeks of the season with an injury, but he’s now back in business, and he has now emerged as a regular starter for LAFC.
Related markets for Canada
Canada’s outright winner contract settles at $1 if they lift the trophy, or resolves to “no” immediately upon elimination. Kalshi uses FIFA as its settlement source; Polymarket uses FIFA and ESPN. Final settlement date: July 20, 2026.
The outright winner isn’t the only way to take a position on Canada at the World Cup. Here are some of the odds on Canada’s other contracts available at the top prediction market sites:
- Group B winner: A bet on whether Canada finishes first in their group. Canada has an 27% chance of winning the group, according to Kalshi traders, up from 18% a couple of weeks ago. Switzerland is still the favorite at 52%.
- Qualify for the knockout stage: A yes/no contract on whether Canada reaches the Round of 32. Kalshi traders have given Canada a 52% chance of reaching the knockout stage. If they finish first or second, they’ll advance. Canada could also qualify if they’re one of the eight best third-place teams.
- Reach a specific round: You can also back Canada to reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final with Kalshi. The further Canada has to go, the lower the implied probability and the higher the potential payout.
- Golden Boot: A bet on which player will score the most goals at the World Cup. Jonathan David is trading below 1% to be the top scorer. Traditional strikers like Mbappé and Kane tend to lead this market.
Where to bet on Canada at the World Cup
Canada’s World Cup betting markets are available on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi currently has the deepest selection, including outright winner, Group B winner, knockout stage qualification, round-by-round advancement, and Golden Boot contracts. Polymarket carries the outright winner, Group B winner, and winning continent contracts, and is expected to expand its offerings as the tournament approaches.
Match-by-match contracts for Canada’s three group stage games haven’t launched yet, but we expect a full slate of Canada-specific props by June. Toronto and Vancouver are hosting all three group games, which should drive strong engagement from Canadian bettors.
If you’re new to prediction markets, we recommend checking out the latest sign-up offers before placing your first trade.
