- ▸ France edges Spain for top spot. They’re both elite teams, but Spain beat France at Euro 2024 and has an easier group. We give Spain the nod.
- ▸ We’re more bullish than the markets on Belgium and Croatia. They’re behind unheralded teams like Norway and Japan in traders’ estimations, but we disagree.
- ▸ A close call between Brazil and Portugal. The markets believe that Brazil has a better chance of lifting the trophy than Portugal, but we give the Portuguese team the edge.
Forty-eight teams will converge upon North America to vie for glory at the World Cup this summer. We’ve ranked each team in descending order, from the reigning European champion to a tiny Caribbean island.
You can buy yes/no contracts on which of these teams will win the World Cup at prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket. In some cases, we agree with their odds, but we also think that several teams are currently mispriced.
World Cup power rankings: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
| Rank | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
| 1 | Spain | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| 2 | France | 18.0% | 16.7% |
| 3 | England | 11.2% | 11.1% |
| 4 | Argentina | 9.7% | 8.7% |
| 5 | Portugal | 8.6% | 7.5% |
| 6 | Brazil | 9.4% | 8.6% |
| 7 | Germany | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| 8 | Netherlands | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| 9 | Belgium | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 10 | Croatia | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| 11 | Morocco | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 12 | Norway | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 13 | Colombia | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| 14 | Uruguay | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 15 | USA | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| 16 | Mexico | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| 17 | Japan | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| 18 | Senegal | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 19 | Ecuador | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 20 | Switzerland | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 21 | Turkey | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 22 | Sweden | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 23 | Austria | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 24 | Ivory Coast | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 25 | Canada | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 26 | Paraguay | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 27 | Czechia | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 28 | South Korea | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 29 | Scotland | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 30 | Egypt | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 31 | Algeria | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 32 | Australia | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 33 | Tunisia | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 34 | Ghana | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 35 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 36 | South Africa | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 37 | Saudi Arabia | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 38 | Iran | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 39 | Panama | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 40 | Uzbekistan | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 41 | New Zealand | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 42 | DR Congo | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 43 | Cabo Verde | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 44 | Iraq | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 45 | Qatar | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 46 | Haiti | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 47 | Jordan | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 48 | Curaçao | 0.1% | 0.3% |
Top World Cup contenders
A handful of elite teams from Europe and South America dominate prediction markets in the build-up to the World Cup. These are the leading contenders to lift the trophy.
1. Spain
- World Cup odds: 16.6% (Kalshi), 15.4% (Polymarket)
- Group H odds: 75% (Kalshi), 80% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 12:00 PM ET vs Cabo Verde at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Spain is the reigning European champion after outclassing Germany, France, and England at Euro 2024. La Roja is currently on a record-breaking 33-game unbeaten streak, so they will be surging with momentum at the World Cup. They have a world-class midfield, led by Rodri and Pedri, but star winger Lamine Yamal is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury. He’s expected to recover in time for the World Cup, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be firing on all cylinders.
2. France
- World Cup odds: 18.0% (Kalshi), 16.7% (Polymarket)
- Group I odds: 68% (Kalshi), 71% (Polymarket)
- First match: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Senegal at MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey
France surged to No. 1 in the FIFA world rankings after beating Brazil and Colombia in the March international break. Les Bleus are now the favorites to win the World Cup on both Kalshi and Polymarket, as they’re stacked with elite forwards like Kylian Mbappé, Desiré Doué, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise. They have a superb record in the World Cup, but they have landed in a much tougher group than Spain, so we have them at No. 2 in our rankings.
3. England
- World Cup odds: 11.2% (Kalshi), 11.1% (Polymarket)
- Group L odds: 72% (Kalshi), 73% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 4:00 PM ET vs Croatia at AT&T Stadium, Dallas
England was the runner-up at the last two European Championships, and it also tends to go deep into the World Cup. The Three Lions now have a genuinely elite coach in Thomas Tuchel, while captain Harry Kane is in sparkling form for Bayern Munich this season. The defense could be their Achilles heel, but they should land on the opposite side of the bracket to France and Spain, giving them a reasonably clear path to the final.
4. Argentina
- World Cup odds: 9.7% (Kalshi), 8.7% (Polymarket)
- Group J odds: 75% (Kalshi), 76% (Polymarket)
- First match: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs Algeria at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Argentina is the reigning world champion after beating France in a penalty shootout four years ago. Star player Lionel Messi is now 39 years old, so his influence is waning, but the supporting cast still looks strong. Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez are going from strength to strength in attack, while the likes of Emiliano Martínez, Enzo Fernández, and Alexis Mac Allister are still in their prime. They lack elite defenders, so we have them at No. 4 in our rankings.
5. Portugal
- World Cup odds: 8.6% (Kalshi), 7.5% (Polymarket)
- Group K odds: 64% (Kalshi), 66% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 1:00 PM ET vs DR Congo at NRG Stadium, Houston
Portugal boasts arguably the world’s best midfield: PSG duo Vitinha and João Neves, Man City captain Bernardo Silva, and Man United playmaker Bruno Fernandes. Cristiano Ronaldo remains a deadly striker, even at the ripe old age of 41, while they also have a great deal of pace, energy, and dynamism in wide areas. The only concern is that Ruben Dias is the only world-class defender in the squad, so an injury to him could derail their prospects.
6. Brazil
- World Cup odds: 9.4% (Kalshi), 8.6% (Polymarket)
- Group C odds: 75% (Kalshi), 77% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 6:00 PM ET vs Morocco at MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey
Brazil has won more World Cups than any other country, but they’ve consistently flopped since lifting the trophy in 2002. The squad is undoubtedly stacked, featuring the likes of Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, Gabriel Magalhães, and Alisson, while manager Carlo Ancelotti is a born winner. They finished fifth in the South American World Cup qualifying group, and key players are injured. As we see it, traders are too optimistic about the Seleção’s chances of success.
7. Germany
- World Cup odds: 5.4% (Kalshi), 5.2% (Polymarket)
- Group E odds: 69% (Kalshi), 73% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 1:00 PM ET vs Curaçao at NRG Stadium, Houston
Manager Julian Nagelsmann has steadied the ship after a turbulent period for Germany, which crashed out in the group stage at the last two World Cups. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala are both elite playmakers, and the squad has quality players in most departments. However, Germany lacks a reliable goalkeeper, and striker Kai Havertz has endured an injury-hit season.
8. Netherlands
- World Cup odds: 3.6% (Kalshi), 3.4% (Polymarket)
- Group F odds: 55% (Kalshi), 54% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 4:00 PM ET vs Japan at AT&T Stadium, Dallas
The Oranje have an embarrassment of riches in defense, including Virgil Van Dijk, Jurriën Timber, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, and Stefan De Vrij. A midfield led by Frenkie de Jong and Ryan Gravenberch is superb, and they have dangerous players on both wings. However, they lack an elite striker. Playmaker Xavi Simons will miss the tournament with an injury.
9. Belgium
- World Cup odds: 2.0% (Kalshi), 2.0% (Polymarket)
- Group G odds: 70% (Kalshi), 68% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Egypt at Lumen Field, Seattle
We’re surprised to see Belgium trading at just 2.0% to win the World Cup. The Red Devils have undoubtedly regressed, as several key players have retired, but the squad is still stacked with quality. Thibaut Courtois is arguably the world’s best goalkeeper, Kevin De Bruyne remains a world-class playmaker, and the likes of Jérémy Doku and Romelu Lukaku bring pace, power, and unpredictability to the attack.
World Cup dark horses to watch
The World Cup has always been won by elite European or South American teams, but a few dark horses often go deep into the tournament. These are our top picks to spring a surprise this summer.
10. Croatia
- World Cup odds: 1.4% (Kalshi), 1.1% (Polymarket)
- Group L odds: 25% (Kalshi), 19% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 4:00 PM ET vs England at AT&T Stadium, Dallas
You can never write off Croatia at the World Cup. This technically gifted team reached the final in 2018, losing to France, and they finished third in 2022. Some of their best players have since retired, but the evergreen Luka Modrić is still pulling the strings in midfield. This team knows how to grind out results in big games.
11. Morocco
- World Cup odds: 1.9% (Kalshi), 1.9% (Polymarket)
- Group C odds: 21% (Kalshi), 19% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 6:00 PM ET vs Brazil at MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey
Morocco beat the likes of Spain and Portugal en route to reaching the World Cup semifinals in 2022. The spine of that team is still intact, led by PSG full-back Achraf Hakimi, and the Moroccans are exceptionally disciplined in defense. A lack of firepower in attack could dent their chances, but Morocco looks like the leading World Cup contender from outside of Europe and South America.
12. Norway
- World Cup odds: 2.2% (Kalshi), 2.3% (Polymarket)
- Group I odds: 22% (Kalshi), 22% (Polymarket)
- First match: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 – 6:00 PM ET vs Iraq at Gillette Stadium, Boston
Norway is priced over 2.0% with prediction markets, and it’s easy to see why. Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, and Alexander Sørloth form one of the most dangerous front lines in the field, and they were magnificent in qualifying. However, the defense looks weak. They lack depth, and this is the first time the Norwegians have qualified since 1998. They’re in a ferociously difficult group alongside France and Senegal, so they’ll have to fight to even make the knockout stage.
13. Colombia
- World Cup odds: 1.9% (Kalshi), 1.7% (Polymarket)
- Group K odds: 27% (Kalshi), 29% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET vs Uzbekistan at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Colombia finished third in the South American World Cup qualifying group, with Bayern Munich winger Luis Díaz firing in seven goals. The Colombians look solid in every department, but Díaz is the only superstar in the squad. They also lost to Croatia and France in March, which has dented their momentum in the build-up to the tournament.
14. Uruguay
- World Cup odds: 1.2% (Kalshi), 1.1% (Polymarket)
- Group H odds: 18% (Kalshi), 18% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 6:00 PM ET vs Saudi Arabia at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Manager Marcelo Bielsa’s high-risk approach gives Uruguay a chance of winning any game, but it also leaves La Celeste vulnerable on the counterattack. The squad looks as strong as ever, featuring top players like Federico Valverde, Ronald Araujo, and José Giménez, but striker Darwin Núñez is inconsistent. If he clicks into gear, Uruguay could be dangerous.
15. USA
- World Cup odds: 1.9% (Kalshi), 1.6% (Polymarket)
- Group D odds: 39% (Kalshi), 42% (Polymarket)
- First match: Friday, June 12, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
The USMNT will benefit from home advantage at this tournament, but preparations have been far from ideal. They lost 5-2 to Belgium and 2-0 to Portugal in the March international break, and star player Christian Pulisic is struggling for form and fitness. On a brighter note, players like Folarin Balogun and Weston McKennie are on fire right now, and the USA also has a deep squad, a favorable path to the Round of 16, and a talented manager in Mauricio Pochettino.
16. Mexico
- World Cup odds: 1.6% (Kalshi), 1.1% (Polymarket)
- Group A odds: 49% (Kalshi), 48% (Polymarket)
- First match: Thursday, June 11, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs South Africa at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
El Tri extended their unbeaten streak to eight games after drawing with Portugal and Belgium in March. They will also benefit from strong home support at this tournament, and the players should have no trouble dealing with the heat. Mexico has solid players in each department, including Edson Álvarez and Raúl Jiménez, but El Tri haven’t made it past the World Cup Round of 16 since 1986.
17. Japan
- World Cup odds: 2.0% (Kalshi), 2.2% (Polymarket)
- Group F odds: 26% (Kalshi), 28% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 4:00 PM ET vs Netherlands at AT&T Stadium, Dallas
We rate Japan as the strongest Asian team heading to the World Cup this summer. Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma is a livewire in attack, and the team is exceptionally disciplined, hardworking, and tactically astute. However, Japan also tends to crash out in the Round of 16, and this team could struggle against elite South American or European opposition.
18. Senegal
- World Cup odds: 0.8% (Kalshi), 0.8% (Polymarket)
- Group I odds: 11% (Kalshi), 9% (Polymarket)
- First match: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs France at MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey
Senegal beat Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations final earlier this year, although the Lions of Teranga were subsequently stripped of the title and have since appealed. They remain a very strong team, featuring the likes of Sadio Mané, Kalidou Koulibaly, Pape Matar Sarr, and Ismaïla Sarr. They were unfortunate to be drawn alongside France and Norway in Group I, but if they qualify for the knockout stage, they could go deep into this tournament.
19. Ecuador
- World Cup odds: 0.7% (Kalshi), 0.8% (Polymarket)
- Group E odds: 19% (Kalshi), 18% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 7:00 PM ET vs Côte d’Ivoire at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Ecuador finished second in the South American World Cup qualifying group, ahead of Colombia, Uruguay, and Brazil. That’s an impressive achievement, but it reflects the quality in their starting XI. Moisés Caicedo and Willian Pacho give the team a very strong spine, although a lack of attacking firepower could hold them back.
20. Switzerland
- World Cup odds: 0.9% (Kalshi), 1.0% (Polymarket)
- Group B odds: 52% (Kalshi), 53% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Qatar at Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area
Switzerland reached the Round of 16 at the last three World Cups, plus the quarterfinals of the last two European Championships. They look capable of enjoying a similar run this time around, with captain Granit Xhaka leading the charge. The Swiss have only lost once in their last 12 games – a 4-3 defeat to Germany – and they comfortably beat both the USMNT and Mexico last year.
21. Turkey
- World Cup odds: 0.8% (Kalshi), 0.7% (Polymarket)
- Group D odds: 36% (Kalshi), 36% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 12:00 AM ET vs Australia at BC Place, Vancouver
Turkey should be exciting in attack at this tournament, led by Real Madrid’s Arda Güler and Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz. Hakan Çalhanoğlu has also been in sparkling form for Inter Milan this season, and manager Vincenzo Montella has lots of talented players at his disposal. However, Turkey struggles defensively, which could prove to be this team’s downfall.
The rest of the World Cup field
The other teams in the field will have their work cut out. Some may spring a surprise or two, but their chances of going deep into the tournament are slim at best.
22. Sweden
- World Cup odds: 0.4% (Kalshi), 0.7% (Polymarket)
- Group F odds: 16% (Kalshi), 14% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET vs Tunisia at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Sweden has the best strike partnership of any non-elite team at the World Cup. Liverpool’s Alexander Isak and Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres are both very dangerous in front of goal, while Anthony Elanga and Roony Bardghji provide strong support. However, the defense and midfield lack quality, which is why the Swedes finished bottom of their World Cup qualifying group – with zero wins from six games – and only earned a place in the tournament via the Nations League pathway.
23. Austria
- World Cup odds: 0.4% (Kalshi), 0.7% (Polymarket)
- Group J odds: 15% (Kalshi), 17% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 12:00 AM ET vs Jordan at Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco
Manager Ralf Rangnick has made Austria hard to beat, as his team plays an intense, high-pressing style of soccer. The Austrians have quality midfielders like Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer, while veteran striker Marko Arnautović is still scoring goals. They topped their qualifying group, and they can upset any team, but the team lacks a true match-winner.
24. Ivory Coast
- World Cup odds: 0.3% (Kalshi), 0.5% (Polymarket)
- Group E odds: 11% (Kalshi), 10% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 7:00 PM ET vs Ecuador at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
A fast, powerful team with commanding defenders like Ousmane Diomande and dynamic wingers like Amad Diallo, Yan Diomande, and Simon Adingra. Sébastian Haller is a dangerous striker too, so the Ivorians could perform well at the World Cup. On the other hand, they have a brutal group stage draw – they’re up against Germany and Ecuador – and they’ve never reached the World Cup knockout stage.
25. Canada
- World Cup odds: 0.5% (Kalshi), 0.7% (Polymarket)
- Group B odds: 27% (Kalshi), 25% (Polymarket)
- First match: Friday, June 12, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Bosnia and Herzegovina at BMO Field, Toronto
Canada always looks dangerous on the counterattack, led by the pace of Alphonso Davies, Tajon Buchanan, and Jonathan David. The CANMNT have been on an upward curve in recent years, and they have a home advantage for this tournament. However, Canada’s World Cup record is abysmal – six defeats from six games – and they lack depth, so an injury to a key player could be costly.
26. Paraguay
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.5% (Polymarket)
- Group D odds: 17% (Kalshi), 18% (Polymarket)
- First match: Friday, June 12, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs USA at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Paraguay is a defensively organized team, with reliable forwards like Miguel Almirón and Antonio Sanabria. They could grind out a few decent results at the World Cup, but La Albirroja only scored 10 goals in 18 qualifying matches. That lack of attacking spark could scupper their chances of reaching the Round of 16.
27. Czechia
- World Cup odds: 0.3% (Kalshi), 0.4% (Polymarket)
- Group A odds: 21% (Kalshi), 24% (Polymarket)
- First match: Thursday, June 11, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET vs Korea Republic at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Czechia showed real character during the World Cup playoffs, beating the Republic of Ireland and Denmark on penalties. The team will now carry momentum into the tournament, where the Czechs will face South Korea, Mexico, and South Africa. They have a strong spine, featuring Tomas Souček and Patrik Schick, so they look capable of making the knockout stage.
28. South Korea
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.5% (Polymarket)
- Group A odds: 22% (Kalshi), 20% (Polymarket)
- First match: Thursday, June 11, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET vs Czechia at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
This will be Son Heung-Min’s last World Cup, and the LAFC striker will be keen to go out in a blaze of glory. He will link up with Lee Kang-in and Hwang Hee-chan in a solid attack, but South Korea’s defense looks shaky. Group A is certainly winnable, but it will be tough for this team to reach the latter stages of the tournament.
29. Scotland
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.4% (Polymarket)
- Group C odds: 7% (Kalshi), 5% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs Haiti at Gillette Stadium, Boston
Scotland has qualified for its first World Cup since 1998, and it’s largely down to the brilliance of Serie A MVP Scott McTominay. He has chipped in with crucial goals and forms a strong midfield along with John McGinn and Lewis Ferguson. The Scots lack quality in attack, and the defense looks vulnerable, so they’ll need some big performances from McTominay and McGinn if they’re to go deep into this tournament.
30. Egypt
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.5% (Polymarket)
- Group G odds: 17% (Kalshi), 18% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Belgium at Lumen Field, Seattle
This Egypt team remains heavily reliant on talismanic forward Mohamed Salah, who looks a shadow of his former self. Salah blazed a trail of destruction across the Premier League last season, but he has been largely ineffective this year, and he’s currently injured. If he can’t rediscover his best form, Egypt could struggle.
31. Algeria
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.4% (Polymarket)
- Group J odds: 10% (Kalshi), 7% (Polymarket)
- First match: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs Argentina at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Algeria is a well-drilled team, but it has a difficult path to the knockout stage. The Algerians will begin their campaign against reigning champion Argentina, before facing Austria and Jordan. They’ll need some magic from veteran playmaker Riyadh Mahrez if they’re to make the Round of 32.
32. Australia
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group D odds: 9% (Kalshi), 8% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 12:00 AM ET vs Turkey at BC Place, Vancouver
The Socceroos always give 100% effort. They’re well-organized under Tony Popovic, but they lack quality. None of their players represent elite European clubs, and that dearth of stardust could be problematic. They have the potential to frustrate rival teams, but they don’t have enough cutting edge in attack to seriously trouble the best teams in the world.
33. Tunisia
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.4% (Polymarket)
- Group F odds: 5% (Kalshi), 6% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET vs Sweden at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Tunisia is another defensively solid team, which works hard to stifle the opposition. The Eagles of Carthage are unlikely to suffer any heavy defeats at the World Cup, but they lack a creative midfielder and a proven goalscorer. They’re in a very tough group alongside the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden, and simply making the Round of 32 would be a major achievement.
34. Ghana
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group L odds: 9% (Kalshi), 8% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 7:00 PM ET vs Panama at BMO Field, Toronto
An attack featuring Antoine Semenyo, Mohammed Kudus, and Jordan Ayew could be devastating. On the other hand, the defense looks weak, and the squad lacks depth. The Black Stars will face England, Croatia, and Panama in the group stage, which looks like a very tricky assignment.
35. Bosnia and Herzegovina
- World Cup odds: 0.3% (Kalshi), 0.4% (Polymarket)
- Group B odds: 20% (Kalshi), 22% (Polymarket)
- First match: Friday, June 12, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Canada at BMO Field, Toronto
This team deserves credit for getting the better of Italy in the playoffs. Veteran striker Edin Džeko is still dangerous at the age of 40, and the squad is packed with tough, hardworking players. They may lack creativity, but Group B is open, and Bosnia and Herzegovina could cause problems for Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland.
36. South Africa
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group A odds: 5% (Kalshi), 7% (Polymarket)
- First match: Thursday, June 11, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Mexico at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
The opener against Mexico will be a baptism of fire, but South Africa looked confident in the qualifying campaign. This is a fearless team, led by two technically gifted forwards in Lyle Foster and Percy Tau. Bafana Bafana could give South Korea and Czechia a run for their money.
37. Saudi Arabia
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group H odds: 3% (Kalshi), 3% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 6:00 PM ET vs Uruguay at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
The Saudis pulled off arguably the most famous upset in World Cup history when they beat eventual champion Argentina in the group stage in 2022. Manager Hervé Renard, who masterminded that victory, was fired just two months before this tournament and replaced by Greek coach Georgios Donis, whose familiarity with Saudi Pro League players was the stated rationale. The disruption could still impact the team’s preparations, so they may struggle to get out of the group stage.
38. Iran
- World Cup odds: 0.2% (Kalshi), 0.2% (Polymarket)
- Group G odds: 11% (Kalshi), 4% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs New Zealand at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Iran was one of the strongest teams in the Asian qualifying campaign, but it may not even participate in this tournament. Kalshi only gives the team a 79% chance of taking part, amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran. If they make it, the Iranians have a chance of making the Round of 32, but it’s hard to see them going any further than that.
39. Panama
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group L odds: 3% (Kalshi), 2% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 7:00 PM ET vs Ghana at BMO Field, Toronto
Panama did well to qualify for this tournament ahead of Costa Rica and Honduras. Los Canaleros are up to No. 33 in the world rankings after beating South Africa 2-1 in March. Thomas Christiansen has them well-drilled in defense, and Cecilio Waterman and Ismael Díaz provide pace and flair in attack.
40. Uzbekistan
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group K odds: 1% (Kalshi), 2% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET vs Colombia at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Uzbekistan will compete in its first World Cup after sweeping its rivals aside in the Asian qualifying campaign. Captain Eldor Shomurodov has scored 44 goals in 90 games for his country, but the supporting cast looks a little flimsy. Landing in the same group as Portugal and Colombia was unfortunate, but Uzbekistan could cause problems for DR Congo in the other game.
41. New Zealand
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group G odds: 4% (Kalshi), 2% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs Iran at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
The Kiwis will try to get the ball to Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood as often as possible at this tournament. He has been very prolific in the Premier League over the past few years, and recently returned from a lengthy injury layoff, so he should be fresh. There isn’t a great deal of quality in the squad, but New Zealand could be competitive against Iran and Egypt in Group G.
42. DR Congo
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group K odds: 13% (Kalshi), 5% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 1:00 PM ET vs Portugal at NRG Stadium, Houston
DR Congo beat a strong Nigeria team to qualify for this tournament. Newcastle’s Yoane Wissa and Real Betis forward Cédric Bakambu provide quality in attack, and the defense looks decent, too. DR Congo will begin its campaign with games against Portugal and Colombia, which is brutal, but it will be interesting to see how the team fares against Uzbekistan.
43. Cabo Verde
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group H odds: 2% (Kalshi), 1% (Polymarket)
- First match: Monday, June 15, 2026 – 12:00 PM ET vs Spain at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Cabo Verde has a population of around 492,000, so it will be tough for this team to compete with Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia in Group H. The Blue Sharks play with technical fluidity, but they could ultimately be outclassed by their group stage rivals.
44. Iraq
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group I odds: 2% (Kalshi), 1% (Polymarket)
- First match: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 – 6:00 PM ET vs Norway at Gillette Stadium, Boston
Iraq became the last team to qualify after beating Bolivia in an intercontinental playoff. The Iraqis are playing at their first World Cup since 1986, but they’re unlikely to make much of a splash at this tournament. They’re up against France, Norway, and Senegal in the group stage, so it would be surprising if they earned a single point.
45. Qatar
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group B odds: 2% (Kalshi), 2% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET vs Switzerland at Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco
Qatar qualified for the 2022 World Cup as the host nation, but it lost all three of its group stage games. The squad features several experienced forwards, including Hassan Al-Haydos, Almoez Ali, and Akram Afif, but they’ll struggle to take points off Switzerland, Canada, and Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B.
46. Haiti
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.2% (Polymarket)
- Group C odds: >1% (Kalshi), 1% (Polymarket)
- First match: Saturday, June 13, 2026 – 9:00 PM ET vs Scotland at Gillette Stadium, Boston
Haiti’s preparations for this tournament have been chaotic. The Grenadiers had to play all of their “home” games overseas due to gang violence, and they haven’t had a secure training base. They’re a resilient team, but a lack of preparation could damage their chances of reaching the Round of 32.
47. Jordan
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group J odds: 2% (Kalshi), 3% (Polymarket)
- First match: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 – 12:00 AM ET vs Austria at Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco
This will be Jordan’s first World Cup appearance. Mousa Tamari inspired the team to some impressive results in qualifying, but taking points off Argentina, Austria, and Algeria in Group J is a tall order.
48. Curaçao
- World Cup odds: 0.1% (Kalshi), 0.3% (Polymarket)
- Group E odds: >1% (Kalshi), 1% (Polymarket)
- First match: Sunday, June 14, 2026 – 1:00 PM ET vs Germany at NRG Stadium, Houston
Curaçao is the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup, with a population of just 156,115. Dick Advocaat, 78, is also the oldest manager in the tournament’s history. The team could be crushed by Germany, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador, but the players should still relish the experience.
