Germany World Cup Odds: Group E, Squad and Final Predictions

Author Martin Green

Martin Green

Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin…

Editor Christopher Feery

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…

Germany predictions and odds analysis

Germany is one of the most successful teams in World Cup history. Die Mannschaft has reached the World Cup final a record eight times. They were crowned world champions in 1954, 1974, 1990, and 2014. Only Brazil (five titles) and Italy (four titles) have won the World Cup can compete with Germany’s record, so the team has a great pedigree in this competition.

However, the Germans have flopped at its last four major tournaments. Die Mannschaft’s dreadful run began at the 2018 World Cup, when they were eliminated at the group stage after losing to Mexico and South Korea. They then suffered a comprehensive 2-0 defeat to England in the Round of 16 at Euro 2020. Their misery was compounded when they were eliminated once again in the group stage of the World Cup in 2022. Germany reached the quarterfinals of Euro 2024, but it lost 2-1 to Spain in extra time.

It has been an uncharacteristically bleak period for German soccer fans, but there could be light at the end of the tunnel. The team now has a highly-rated coach, Julian Nagelsmann, and an exciting squad led by youngsters Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz. Veterans like Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, and Antonio Rüdiger bring vital experience too. It’s also worth noting that Germany was a little unfortunate to lose to Spain, the eventual champion, at Euro 2024. Since then, Germany has picked up 12 wins, three draws, and three defeats from 18 games, including a current seven-game winning streak.

There are a few issues with the squad. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer retired from international soccer after Euro 2024, leaving Marc-André ter Stegen as the expected starter. Unfortunately, ter Stegen has been ravaged by injuries: a serious knee problem last season followed by hamstring surgery in February 2026. Nagelsmann has admitted his World Cup chances are very slim. Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nübel have shared the duties in his absence, with neither commanding the position with authority. The goalkeeping situation remains Germany’s most significant uncertainty heading into the tournament, and some fans are calling on Neuer to come out of retirement.

Nagelsmann will also be sweating on the fitness of Jamal Musiala. The Bayern Munich playmaker suffered a fractured fibula and dislocated ankle at the Club World Cup last July and, after a brief return in January, re-aggravated the ankle in March and was omitted from Germany’s squad for the March friendlies against Switzerland and Ghana. He’s now back in the Bayern team, but his minutes have been limted, and his World Cup availability remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, striker Kai Havertz endured an injury-hit season at Arsenal after sustaining a knee problem on the opening day of the season. He returned to fitness and was named in Germany’s March squad, starting against Switzerland, only to pick up another injury in Arsenal’s 1-0 win against Newcastle on April 25. His understudy, Nick Woltemade, has struggled for Newcastle this year, so Nagelsmann will be desperate for Havertz to recover. On a brighter note, Die Mannschaft are excellent in midfield and pretty solid in defense, but Musiala’s fitness concern ahead of the summer could explain why they’re below Spain, England, France, Argentina, Brazil, and Portugal in the pecking order.

Germany group draw and tournament path

Germany was handed a pretty tough World Cup group draw. Nagelsmann’s men will face Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and Curaçao in the group stage. Curaçao is a minnow, but Ecuador and Ivory Coast are strong teams. Germany will also clock up a lot of miles, as they’re playing in Houston, Toronto, and New Jersey during the group stage.

• Germany vs Curaçao (June 14, Houston): Curaçao is the smallest country ever to qualify for the World Cup. The Caribbean island has a population of around 156,000, and most of its players are at small, obscure clubs. Curaçao is No. 82 in the FIFA world rankings, so it will struggle to compete with Germany in this game.
• Germany vs Ivory Coast (June 20, Toronto): The Germans will face a much sterner test of their mettle against Ivory Coast on Matchday 2. Amad Diallo and Yan Diomandé are dangerous on the flanks, and Franck Kessié is combative in midfield. They’re one of the top teams in Africa, so the Ivorians should give Germany a fierce challenge in Toronto.
• Germany vs Ecuador (June 25, East Rutherford): Ecuador qualified second in the South American qualifying group, ahead of big teams like Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay. La Tri are up to No. 23 in the world rankings, which reflects the depth of quality in their squad. Moisés Caicedo is an elite midfielder, while Willi Pacho and Piero Hincapié are excellent in defense. This game could determine who wins the group.

If Germany wins Group E, it will face a third-place team from Groups A, B, C, D, or F in the Round of 32 in Boston, a match it would be heavily favored to win. That would set up a potential Round of 16 clash with France in Philadelphia, assuming Les Bleus top Group I as expected. That would be a heavyweight encounter, with France the slight favorite.

Germany’s most likely quarterfinal opponent would be the Netherlands. If they won that game, the Germans could face Spain in the semifinals. Potential opponents in the final include England, Argentina, Brazil, and Portugal.

For live pricing on all World Cup contenders, see our World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: Musiala and Wirtz will lead the charge for Germany

Nagelsmann will have a strong squad at his disposal this summer, even if a few players are missing through injury. These are the stars to watch:

• Jamal Musiala: The Bayern Munich playmaker is Germany’s most dangerous creative threat when fully fit, a player capable of unlocking defenses in tight spaces with his dribbling and vision. The concern is fitness. He suffered a fractured fibula and dislocated ankle at last summer’s Club World Cup, returned briefly in January, then re-aggravated the ankle in March and missed the Switzerland and Ghana friendlies. He returned to action for Bayern on April 11, scoring and assisting in a 5-0 win against St. Pauli, and has made clear he intends to be at the World Cup. Nagelsmann has given him until the provisional squad announcement in the second week of May to prove he can perform at 100 percent.
• Florian Wirtz: Wirtz and Musiala often start as twin No. 10s for Germany, and it’s difficult for defenders to handle that duo. He can also play as an inverted winger or a false nine, so his versatility will be important for the Germans at the World Cup. If Wirtz and Musiala are on song, they could be unstoppable.
• Kai Havertz: The Arsenal forward missed the first half of the season with a knee injury but has returned to fitness and reclaimed his place as Germany’s starting striker, featuring in the March squad and starting against Switzerland. He’ll be keen to carry that momentum into the World Cup, but he was injured in a Premier League game on April 25, which is concerning.
• Joshua Kimmich: Germany’s captain will bring experience, composure, and leadership to this team. Kimmich is one of the most decorated players in world soccer, with a trophy-laden career at Bayern Munich that includes multiple Bundesliga titles and a Champions League.
• Nick Woltemade: The Newcastle forward is a contender to lead Germany’s attack, though Havertz has now returned to the fold. Woltemade isn’t a traditional center-forward, but he’s a decent finisher, and he’s excellent at holding up the ball. His performance levels have dipped in the Premier League, with just seven goals this season, but he remains an important option off the bench.

Related markets for Germany

Any tournament winner contracts on Germany will resolve to “yes” if Die Mannschaft lifts the trophy. The final settlement date is July 20, 2026, one day after the final. Contracts resolve to “no” and settle at $0 if they’re eliminated at any stage.

There are plenty of extra markets on Germany at the World Cup this summer:

• Group E winner: Germany has a 69% chance of winning Group E, according to traders at Kalshi. Ecuador is the 19% second favorite. Polymarket traders are more bullish, giving Germany a 73% probability of winning the group, with Ecuador priced at 19%. The gap between platforms is worth checking with an arbitrage calculator before making a trade.
• Qualify for the knockout stage: Die Mannschaft were eliminated at the group stage of the last two World Cups, so they’ll be desperate to avoid that fate this year. They have a 97% chance of qualifying for the knockout stage, according to Kalshi.
• Reach a specific round: You can back Germany to reach a specific round of the tournament: Round of 32, Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final. They’re on a collision course with France in the Round of 16, so backing them to reach that stage could be a popular option.
• Golden Boot: Woltemade has a 3% chance of being the top scorer at the World Cup, according to Kalshi. Seven players, including Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland, are now ahead of him.

More World Cup markets

Where to bet on Germany at the World Cup

Kalshi has the deepest selection of World Cup markets on Germany right now. You can back Die Mannschaft to win the tournament, win Group E, reach the knockout stage, or qualify for a specific round. Kalshi also has a Golden Boot prop, plus contracts for Germany’s opening game against Curaçao.

You’ll also find a range of markets on Polymarket. It’s offering tournament winner and group winner markets, plus a contract on whether Europe will be the winning continent. DraftKings Predictions has also released a contract on whether Germany will beat Curaçao on June 14, and we expect futures contracts to be available soon. Not sure which platform to use? See our Kalshi vs. Polymarket breakdown for a full comparison of fees, markets, and liquidity.

Prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are available nationwide. They should be popular in states that haven’t legalized online sports betting, like Texas and California, during the World Cup. These sites don’t charge vigorish (juice) either, as they simply allow you to trade contracts with fellow sports fans. They take a small fee, but it’s normally much lower than sportsbook vig, so you can find sharp soccer odds on prediction markets. 

Reviewing prediction market fees before your first trade can make a real difference to your returns. See our guide to the best sports prediction sites or browse the latest sign-up offers for new accounts.