Germany was eliminated from the 2026 World Cup after losing to Paraguay on penalties in the Round of 32. Julio Enciso opened the scoring for Paraguay, but Kai Havertz equalized in the 55th minute. Jonathan Tah thought he’d won the game for Germany, but his goal was controversially disallowed by the video assistant referee. The game went to a penalty shootout, and Germany lost. Havertz and Tah both missed their penalty kicks, as did Nick Woltemade.
Prior to that defeat, prediction markets gave Germany a 4.5% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup after the team made a mixed start to the tournament. Die Mannschaft thrashed Curaçao 7-1 in its opener, before battling to a 2-1 comeback win against Ivory Coast on Matchday 2. The Germans then lost 2-1 to Ecuador in their final group stage game, but they still won their group, and they were heavy favorites to beat Paraguay, only to suffer another humiliating defeat.
Germany’s World Cup 2026 campaign
Germany is one of the most successful teams in World Cup history. Die Mannschaft has reached the World Cup final a record eight times. They were crowned world champions in 1954, 1974, 1990, and 2014. Only Brazil (five titles) and Italy (four titles) have won the World Cup can compete with Germany’s record, so the team has a great pedigree in this competition. However, the Germans were eliminated in the group stage in 2018 and 2022, and they have now suffered another shock early exit.
For live pricing on all the remaining World Cup contenders, see our World Cup odds tracker.
Key players: Musiala and Wirtz led the charge for Germany
Nagelsmann had a strong squad at his disposal this summer, but these stars couldn’t restore Germany to its former glory:
- Jamal Musiala: The Bayern Munich playmaker is Germany’s most dangerous creative threat when fully fit, a player capable of unlocking defenses in tight spaces with his dribbling and vision.
- Florian Wirtz: Wirtz and Musiala often start as twin No. 10s for Germany, and it’s difficult for defenders to handle that duo. He can also play as an inverted winger or a false nine, so his versatility wasimportant for the Germans at the World Cup.
- Kai Havertz: The Arsenal forward scored twice in Germany’s 7-1 win against Curaçao on Matchday 1, and he was on target against Paraguay, but he missed his penalty kick in the shootout.
- Joshua Kimmich: Germany’s captain brings experience, composure, and leadership to this team. Kimmich is one of the most decorated players in world soccer, with a trophy-laden career at Bayern Munich that includes multiple Bundesliga titles and a Champions League.
Related World Cup markets
All tournament winner contracts on Germany have now resolved to to “no” after Die Mannschaft were eliminated. You can still browse futures markets on the other teams in this competition:
- Reach a specific round: You can back a team to reach a specific round of the tournament.
- Golden Boot: Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland are vying for individual glory in this market.
More World Cup markets
| Qualifying Countries | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina vs. Algeria | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 🇨🇦 Canada | 🏴 England |
| 🇫🇷 France | 🇩🇪 Germany | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 🇳🇱 Netherlands |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 🇵🇹 Portugal | 🇪🇸 Spain vs. Cape Verde | 🇺🇸 USA vs. Paraguay |
Where to bet on Germany at future tournaments
Kalshi and Polymarket will both offer a deep selection of markets on every Germany game in the future. If it’s a knockout stage game, you can predict which team will advance to the next round (which includes extra time and penalties) or opt for the three-way moneyline (which settles at the end of regulation time). Other popular markets include the spread, total goals, both teams to score, the first team to score, and goalscorer props.
Prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are available nationwide. They are popular in states that haven’t legalized online sports betting, like Texas and California, during the World Cup. These sites don’t charge vigorish (juice) either, as they simply allow you to trade contracts with fellow sports fans. They take a small fee, but it’s normally much lower than sportsbook vig, so you can find sharp soccer odds on prediction markets.
Reviewing prediction market fees before your first trade can make a real difference to your returns. See our guide to the best sports prediction sites or browse the latest sign-up offers for new accounts.