As Republican lawmakers in Washington work to find a way to pass President Donald Trump’s Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE America Act, prediction markets are weighing in heavily that it will not pass.
Trump was reportedly “losing patience” with Senate Majority Leader John Thune last week and this week is demanding Congress stay in session to pass it before their summer break. But Democrats are filibustering the issue and several Republicans are not willing to back Trump’s wishes on the bill.
With all that in mind, Kalshi has the SAVE America Act at just 7.6% chance to become law on $9.9 million in volume. Polymarket has it at 12% on $209,000. Those chances are a pretty clear signal that traders see a lot of political noise but very little actual passage risk when it comes to the bill.
Trump would like to see lawmakers pass the bill, at least as much of it as possible, by the time they leave for the August recess, according to comments made by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt Wednesday.
What the bill does
At the simplest level, the SAVE Act would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections, and it would force states to do more to verify voter rolls and remove noncitizens.
Republicans say that is basic election integrity, while Democrats say it would make registration harder for eligible voters who don’t have easy access to citizenship documents.
That debate is why the bill keeps coming back. It’s also why it keeps getting stuck.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis recently called it a “waste of time.” Tillis even vowed to stop it.
“It’s not going to happen. Period. Full stop. Even if it was passed, it couldn’t possibly be implemented,” Tillis said. “And if we even tried it, we would be responsible for one of the most confusing, dangerous decisions coming out of this body just ahead of an election,” he warned. “It can’t be implemented. There are 10,000 different [state and local] entities that got to get it done.”
Senate still blocks it
The House can keep moving the bill around procedurally, passing it multiple times in various fashions. The Senate remains the issue, as even some GOP lawmakers like Tillis are at odds with the bill.
Thune continues to say Republicans don’t have the votes, and that’s the same roadblock that has kept the bill from becoming law even after House action. Trump and some Republicans favor ending the filibuster so it could pass with a simple majority, an easier threshold to reach with members crossing the aisle and Sen. Mitch McConnell absent from the floor. Thune and other leaders, however, do not want to end the procedural obstacle used by both parties.
Lawmakers have also discussed adding it to a short-term funding bill to avoid a government shutdown in September. That, too, has divided legislators.
Trump’s frustration with Thune only reinforces how much the issue has become a fight inside the GOP as much as between the parties.
That’s also why the market is so low. If Republicans can’t find a path in the Senate, then even strong House maneuvering doesn’t matter. The trade is basically betting that the bill remains a messaging vehicle, not a statute.
Why the odds are low
The low odds make sense because the bill is not just controversial, but complicated operationally. It would create new ID proof requirements, add penalties for some election officials, and force states to run citizenship-verification systems, all of which makes it harder to move quickly through a divided Senate.
Even with Trump pushing hard and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, the legislative math hasn’t improved enough to change the market price.
The SAVE America Act has plenty of political energy, but the Senate still looks like a dead end. Prediction markets are treating the bill like a high-profile priority that probably dies in the chamber where priorities are tested.
More on Kalshi
