Todd Blanche Won the Next Attorney General Market
Todd Blanche won the next Attorney General market after the U.S. Senate confirmed him on August 8, 2026. DeFi Rate recorded more than $13 million in tracked trading volume across the Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini contracts on this page. The final results and historical prices below show how the market settled.
Final Next Attorney General Market Results
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TBTodd Blanche
Vol —
Spread 0.0%
Agg
100.0%Settled
K
100.0%
P
100.0%
ACAileen Cannon
Vol $24.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
AHAlina Habba
Vol $12.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
ABAndrew Bailey
Vol $48.5K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
AMAshley Moody
Vol $2.7K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
EMEd Martin
Vol $6.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
ESEric Schmitt
Vol —
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
HDHarmeet Dhillon
Vol $107.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
JMJason Miyares
Vol $8
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
JCJay Clayton
Vol $90.8K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
JPJeanine Pirro
Vol $174.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
JCJeff Clark
Vol $39.4K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
P
0.0%
JJJeff Jensen
Vol $4.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
KPKen Paxton
Vol $155.2K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
LZLee Zeldon
Vol $330.5K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
MGMatt Gaetz
Vol $107.1K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
MWMatt Whitaker
Vol $3.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
MLMike Lee
Vol $69.4K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
NABNo announcement by June 30
Vol $159.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
P
0.0%
RGRobert Giuffra
Vol $4.2K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
RDRon DeSantis
Vol $140.8K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
TCTed Cruz
Vol $68.4K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.0%Settled
K
0.0%
P
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TB Todd Blanche | 100.0% Settled | 0.0% | — |
Kalshi
100.0% |
Polymarket
100.0% |
Gemini
— |
AC Aileen Cannon | 0.0% Settled | — | $24.3K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
AH Alina Habba | 0.0% Settled | — | $12.3K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
AB Andrew Bailey | 0.0% Settled | — | $48.5K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
AM Ashley Moody | 0.0% Settled | — | $2.7K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
EM Ed Martin | 0.0% Settled | — | $6.1K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
ES Eric Schmitt | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | — |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
HD Harmeet Dhillon | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $107.2K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
JM Jason Miyares | 0.0% Settled | — | $8 |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
JC Jay Clayton | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $90.8K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
JP Jeanine Pirro | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $174.2K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
JC Jeff Clark | 0.0% Settled | — | $39.4K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
JJ Jeff Jensen | 0.0% Settled | — | $4.0K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
KP Ken Paxton | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $155.2K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
LZ Lee Zeldon | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $330.5K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
MG Matt Gaetz | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $107.1K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
MW Matt Whitaker | 0.0% Settled | — | $3.1K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
ML Mike Lee | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $69.4K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
NAB No announcement by June 30 | 0.0% Settled | — | $159.0K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
RG Robert Giuffra | 0.0% Settled | — | $4.2K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
— |
Gemini
— |
RD Ron DeSantis | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $140.8K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
TC Ted Cruz | 0.0% Settled | 0.0% | $68.4K |
Kalshi
0.0% |
Polymarket
0.0% |
Gemini
— |
How the Next Attorney General Market Moved
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Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
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Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-ch…
Christopher Feery
Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…
Event timeline
- April 2, 2026: Pam Bondi left the role and Blanche became acting Attorney General.
- June 2026: announcement-based Polymarket contracts resolved to Blanche.
- August 8, 2026: the Senate confirmed Blanche as Attorney General, 50–49.
- August 9, 2026 UTC: Kalshi finalized its next-AG event with Todd Blanche as the winning outcome.
Final result: Todd Blanche became Attorney General
Todd Blanche won the next Attorney General prediction market. The U.S. Senate confirmed Blanche on August 8, 2026, by a 50–49 vote, moving him from acting Attorney General to the permanent role.
DeFi Rate recorded more than $13 million in tracked trading volume across the Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini contracts included on this page. That is a historical floor based on the first-party exchange totals available to us, rather than a claim that every related contract was captured.
How the markets resolved
The exchanges asked similar questions but used different payout triggers. Polymarket’s announcement-by-June-30 market resolved to Todd Blanche in June after Trump named his choice. Kalshi’s main market stayed open because its rules required the first new person to become Attorney General; acting or interim service did not count.
Kalshi finalized Todd Blanche as the winning outcome after the Senate confirmation on August 8. Gemini’s next-AG market also settled with Blanche as the winner. The final 100% and 0% prices shown above are settlement results, not live forecasts.
What the market showed
Lee Zeldin led early trading while the no-announcement outcome gained support during the spring. Blanche, who became acting Attorney General on April 2, initially traded behind Zeldin because acting service did not satisfy the principal contracts’ permanent-office rules.
The market changed once Trump selected Blanche and the nomination advanced. Traders ultimately converged on Blanche, and the Senate vote supplied the final trigger for the contracts that required him to take the office rather than merely be announced.
More than $13M traded on Next Attorney General
- Kalshi: approximately $11.84 million in displayed contract volume across the finalized event markets.
- Polymarket: approximately $1.15 million in cumulative trading volume across the mapped announcement markets.
- Gemini: approximately $65,600 in displayed volume on its settled next-AG market.
- Combined tracked total: more than $13 million.
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation of first-party exchange data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. Venue totals can use different reporting conventions, so the figure is best read as the amount recorded across the markets on this page, not as a standardized cash-notional measure.
Contract rules
- Kalshi: resolved to the first new person to become Attorney General before January 20, 2029. Acting and interim officeholders did not qualify.
- Polymarket: the mapped basket resolved according to the first person Trump announced as his next Attorney General, with a June 30, 2026 deadline.
- Gemini: its settled market asked who would be Trump’s next Attorney General before January 20, 2029.
FAQ
Todd Blanche won. The U.S. Senate confirmed him as Attorney General on August 8, 2026, by a 50–49 vote.
Blanche moved from acting Attorney General to the permanent role after the Senate confirmed his nomination on August 8, 2026.
DeFi Rate recorded more than $13 million in combined tracked volume across the Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini markets included on this page. The figure is a historical floor based on the first-party totals available to us.
The contracts used different payout rules. Polymarket’s announcement-based markets could resolve when Trump named his choice, while the principal Kalshi market required the first new person to become Attorney General. Acting service alone did not satisfy that Kalshi rule.