2028 Republican VP Nominee Odds & Predictions
Prediction markets have Marco Rubio as the favorite for 2028 Republican VP nominee race, with a 27.5% probability or, +264 odds. J.D. Vance is coming in at second with 7.0% (+1,339), while Sarah Huckabee Sanders has a 4.1% chance. Total volume for the 2028 Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $19.8K in the last 30 days with $12.8K on Kalshi and $7.0K on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.
List of 2028 Republican VP Nominee Considerations
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
MRMarco Rubio
Vol $6.0K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
27.5%↑ +0.3%
O
31.0%
G
28.5%
K
27.5%
JDVJ.D. Vance
Vol $6.3K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
7.0%↑ +1.0%
K
7.0%
G
6.5%
SHSSarah Huckabee Sanders
Vol $475
Spread 2.9%
Agg
4.1%↑ +0.8%
O
7.0%
K
4.1%
DJTDonald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $276
Spread 2.0%
Agg
4.0%↑ +0.5%
O
6.0%
K
4.0%
DJTDonald J. Trump
Vol $1.8K
Spread 4.1%
Agg
3.9%↓ -0.4%
O
8.0%
G
4.5%
K
3.9%
GYGlenn Youngkin
Vol $50
Spread 5.4%
Agg
3.6%↑ +0.3%
O
9.0%
K
3.6%
BDByron Donalds
Vol $1.1K
Spread 2.3%
Agg
2.8%↑ +0.9%
O
5.0%
K
2.8%
EKErika Kirk
Vol $578
Spread 5.4%
Agg
2.6%↑ +0.3%
O
8.0%
K
2.6%
KBKatie Britt
Vol $26
Spread 2.4%
Agg
2.6%↓ -1.1%
O
5.0%
K
2.6%
ESElise Stefanik
Vol $56
Spread 3.5%
Agg
2.6%↓ -0.1%
O
6.0%
K
2.6%
RDRon DeSantis
Vol $87
Spread 3.3%
Agg
1.8%↓ -0.5%
O
5.0%
G
2.5%
K
1.8%
NHNikki Haley
Vol $271
Spread 2.4%
Agg
1.7%↓ -0.6%
O
4.0%
K
1.7%
JHJosh Hawley
Vol $50
Spread 2.4%
Agg
1.6%↓ -1.3%
O
4.0%
K
1.6%
TGTulsi Gabbard
Vol $530
Spread 4.4%
Agg
1.6%↓ -0.4%
O
6.0%
K
1.6%
TCTed Cruz
Vol $119
Spread 2.6%
Agg
1.5%↓ -1.1%
O
4.0%
G
1.5%
K
1.5%
BKBrian Kemp
Vol $40
Spread 3.6%
Agg
1.4%↓ -0.4%
O
5.0%
K
1.4%
GAGreg Abbott
Vol $20
Spread 2.9%
Agg
1.1%↓ -1.4%
O
4.0%
K
1.1%
RFKRobert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vol $39
Spread 3.0%
Agg
1.0%↓ -1.3%
O
4.0%
K
1.0%
MGMatt Gaetz
Vol $68
Spread 2.3%
Agg
0.7%↓ -1.5%
O
3.0%
K
0.7%
JTJohn Thune
Vol $487
Spread 2.4%
Agg
0.6%↓ -0.1%
O
3.0%
K
0.6%
EMElon Musk
Vol $38
Spread —
Agg
0.3%↓ -1.1%
K
0.3%
DTDonald Trump
Vol $79
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.4%
DTJDonald Trump Jr.
Vol $86
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.1%
ETEric Trump
Vol $107
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.8%
ITIvanka Trump
Vol $30
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -20.9%
JKJoe Kent
Vol $44
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.7%
KKKim Kardashian
Vol $34
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.7%
KNKristi Noem
Vol $34
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.7%
MTGMarjorie Taylor Greene
Vol $175
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.6%
MPMike Pence
Vol $4
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -1.8%
PHPete Hegseth
Vol $235
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -4.1%
RPRand Paul
Vol $120
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.8%
SBSteve Bannon
Vol $20
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.2%
TMThomas Massie
Vol $156
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -7.9%
TBTom Brady
Vol $169
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -0.7%
TCTucker Carlson
Vol $20
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -3.1%
VRVivek Ramaswamy
Vol $65
Spread —
Agg
0.0%↓ -2.7%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR Marco Rubio | 27.5% ↑ +0.3% | 3.5% | $6.0K |
Kalshi
27.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
28.5%
|
OG
31.0%
|
JDV J.D. Vance | 7.0% ↑ +1.0% | 0.5% | $6.3K |
Kalshi
7.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
6.5%
|
OG
—
|
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 4.1% ↑ +0.8% | 2.9% | $475 |
Kalshi
4.1%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
7.0%
|
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4.0% ↑ +0.5% | 2.0% | $276 |
Kalshi
4.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
DJT Donald J. Trump | 3.9% ↓ -0.4% | 4.1% | $1.8K |
Kalshi
3.9%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
4.5%
|
OG
8.0%
|
GY Glenn Youngkin | 3.6% ↑ +0.3% | 5.4% | $50 |
Kalshi
3.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
9.0%
|
BD Byron Donalds | 2.8% ↑ +0.9% | 2.3% | $1.1K |
Kalshi
2.8%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
5.0%
|
EK Erika Kirk | 2.6% ↑ +0.3% | 5.4% | $578 |
Kalshi
2.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
8.0%
|
KB Katie Britt | 2.6% ↓ -1.1% | 2.4% | $26 |
Kalshi
2.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
5.0%
|
ES Elise Stefanik | 2.6% ↓ -0.1% | 3.5% | $56 |
Kalshi
2.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
RD Ron DeSantis | 1.8% ↓ -0.5% | 3.3% | $87 |
Kalshi
1.8%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
2.5%
|
OG
5.0%
|
NH Nikki Haley | 1.7% ↓ -0.6% | 2.4% | $271 |
Kalshi
1.7%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
4.0%
|
JH Josh Hawley | 1.6% ↓ -1.3% | 2.4% | $50 |
Kalshi
1.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
4.0%
|
TG Tulsi Gabbard | 1.6% ↓ -0.4% | 4.4% | $530 |
Kalshi
1.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
TC Ted Cruz | 1.5% ↓ -1.1% | 2.6% | $119 |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
1.5%
|
OG
4.0%
|
BK Brian Kemp | 1.4% ↓ -0.4% | 3.6% | $40 |
Kalshi
1.4%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
5.0%
|
GA Greg Abbott | 1.1% ↓ -1.4% | 2.9% | $20 |
Kalshi
1.1%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
4.0%
|
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1.0% ↓ -1.3% | 3.0% | $39 |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
4.0%
|
MG Matt Gaetz | 0.7% ↓ -1.5% | 2.3% | $68 |
Kalshi
0.7%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
3.0%
|
JT John Thune | 0.6% ↓ -0.1% | 2.4% | $487 |
Kalshi
0.6%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
3.0%
|
EM Elon Musk | 0.3% ↓ -1.1% | — | $38 |
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
DT Donald Trump | 0.0% ↓ -2.4% | — | $79 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
DTJ Donald Trump Jr. | 0.0% ↓ -3.1% | — | $86 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
ET Eric Trump | 0.0% ↓ -0.8% | — | $107 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
IT Ivanka Trump | 0.0% ↓ -20.9% | — | $30 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
JK Joe Kent | 0.0% ↓ -0.7% | — | $44 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
KK Kim Kardashian | 0.0% ↓ -0.7% | — | $34 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
KN Kristi Noem | 0.0% ↓ -2.7% | — | $34 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.0% ↓ -3.6% | — | $175 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
MP Mike Pence | 0.0% ↓ -1.8% | — | $4 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
PH Pete Hegseth | 0.0% ↓ -4.1% | — | $235 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
RP Rand Paul | 0.0% ↓ -3.8% | — | $120 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
SB Steve Bannon | 0.0% ↓ -2.2% | — | $20 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
TM Thomas Massie | 0.0% ↓ -7.9% | — | $156 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
TB Tom Brady | 0.0% ↓ -0.7% | — | $169 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
TC Tucker Carlson | 0.0% ↓ -3.1% | — | $20 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
VR Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.0% ↓ -2.7% | — | $65 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
Probability Over Time
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Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JDV J.D. Vance |
Gemini
→
Kalshi | Buy @ G 7¢ | Sell @ K 6.9¢ | -0.10% | -0.20% |
No | |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 4.2¢ | Sell @ G 4¢ | -0.20% | -0.29% |
No | |
MR Marco Rubio |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 28¢ | Sell @ G 28¢ | +0.00% | -0.39% |
No | |
RD Ron DeSantis |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 2.5¢ | Sell @ G 2¢ | -0.50% | -0.58% |
No | |
TC Ted Cruz |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 1.7¢ | Sell @ G 1¢ | -0.70% | -0.77% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR Marco Rubio |
TC Ted Cruz |
Gemini | A 28.5% | B 1.5% | +27.00% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
RD Ron DeSantis |
Gemini | A 28.5% | B 2.5% | +26.00% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
ES Elise Stefanik |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 2.6% | +24.95% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
EK Erika Kirk |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 2.6% | +24.90% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
KB Katie Britt |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 2.6% | +24.90% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
BD Byron Donalds |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 2.8% | +24.75% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Gemini | A 28.5% | B 4.5% | +24.00% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
GY Glenn Youngkin |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 3.6% | +23.90% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 3.9% | +23.60% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 4.0% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 4.1% | +23.40% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
JDV J.D. Vance |
Gemini | A 28.5% | B 6.5% | +22.00% | Buy spread | |
MR Marco Rubio |
JDV J.D. Vance |
Kalshi | A 27.5% | B 7.0% | +20.55% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
TC Ted Cruz |
Gemini | A 6.5% | B 1.5% | +5.00% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
ES Elise Stefanik |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 2.6% | +4.40% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
EK Erika Kirk |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 2.6% | +4.35% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
KB Katie Britt |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 2.6% | +4.35% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
BD Byron Donalds |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 2.8% | +4.20% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
RD Ron DeSantis |
Gemini | A 6.5% | B 2.5% | +4.00% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
GY Glenn Youngkin |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 3.6% | +3.35% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 3.9% | +3.05% | Buy spread | |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
TC Ted Cruz |
Gemini | A 4.5% | B 1.5% | +3.00% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 4.0% | +2.95% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders |
Kalshi | A 7.0% | B 4.1% | +2.85% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Gemini | A 6.5% | B 4.5% | +2.00% | Buy spread | |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
RD Ron DeSantis |
Gemini | A 4.5% | B 2.5% | +2.00% | Buy spread | |
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders |
ES Elise Stefanik |
Kalshi | A 4.1% | B 2.6% | +1.55% | Buy spread | |
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders |
EK Erika Kirk |
Kalshi | A 4.1% | B 2.6% | +1.50% | Buy spread | |
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders |
KB Katie Britt |
Kalshi | A 4.1% | B 2.6% | +1.50% | Buy spread | |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. |
ES Elise Stefanik |
Kalshi | A 4.0% | B 2.6% | +1.45% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.