Prediction Markets 2028 Republican VP Nominee

2028 Republican VP Nominee Odds & Predictions

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Updated 16 minutes ago · 1:49 AM PDT

2028 US President Odds Republican Nominee for President

Prediction markets have Marco Rubio as the favorite for 2028 Republican VP nominee race, with a 26.5% probability or, +277 odds. Kristi Noem is coming in at second with 21.9% (+357), while Donald Trump has a 21.0% chance. Total volume for the 2028 Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $56.3K in the last 30 days with $47.5K on Kalshi and $8.9K on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

1.62%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Current Favorite

26.5%

Marco Rubio 0.5%

30D Volume (Share)

$56.3K

Momentum Leader

+18.4%

Vivek Ramaswamy 30D change

List of 2028 Republican VP Nominee Considerations

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Marco Rubio

Vol $4.3K Spread 3.5%

Agg 26.5%

↓ -0.5%

P 28.5%

K 26.5%

G 25.0%

Kristi Noem

Vol $212 Spread —

Agg 21.9%

↑ +9.4%

P 21.9%

Polymarket 21.9%

Vol $212 4.5–39.3¢

Donald Trump

Vol $347 Spread —

Agg 21.0%

↑ +0.5%

P 21.0%

Polymarket 21.0%

Vol $347 3–39¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $261 Spread —

Agg 19.9%

↑ +18.4%

P 19.9%

Polymarket 19.9%

Vol $261 3.7–36¢

Mike Pence

Vol $259 Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↑ +2.9%

P 18.0%

Polymarket 18.0%

Vol $259 3.5–32.4¢

Steve Bannon

Vol $192 Spread —

Agg 17.7%

↑ +5.6%

P 17.7%

Polymarket 17.7%

Vol $192 5.1–30.2¢

Ivanka Trump

Vol $225 Spread —

Agg 12.7%

↑ +0.2%

P 12.7%

Polymarket 12.7%

Vol $225 2.7–22.7¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $212 Spread —

Agg 10.9%

↓ -6.6%

P 10.9%

Polymarket 10.9%

Vol $212 0.9–20.9¢

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $5.8K Spread 3.9%

Agg 7.6%

↓ -22.3%

P 11.5%

G 10.0%

K 7.6%

Erika Kirk

Vol $5.4K Spread 3.9%

Agg 7.0%

↑ +0.5%

P 9.0%

K 5.1%

Pete Hegseth

Vol $193 Spread —

Agg 5.6%

↓ -8.5%

P 5.6%

Polymarket 5.6%

Vol $193 0.8–10.3¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $545 Spread 2.7%

Agg 5.4%

↓ -17.7%

K 5.4%

P 2.7%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $192 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↓ -21.1%

P 4.5%

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $192 1.5–7.4¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $1.8K Spread 0.3%

Agg 4.3%

↓ -0.1%

K 4.3%

G 4.0%

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $169 Spread —

Agg 4.0%

— +0.0%

K 4.0%

Kalshi 4.0%

Vol $169 3.1–4.8¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $255 Spread 2.5%

Agg 3.8%

↓ -18.4%

K 5.1%

P 2.6%

Tom Brady

Vol $248 Spread —

Agg 3.7%

↓ -20.3%

P 3.7%

Polymarket 3.7%

Vol $248 1.1–6.2¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $199 Spread —

Agg 3.6%

↓ -9.9%

P 3.6%

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $199 0.9–6.3¢

Elise Stefanik

Vol $234 Spread 1.4%

Agg 3.6%

↓ -32.0%

P 4.3%

K 2.9%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $192 Spread —

Agg 3.6%

↓ -18.0%

P 3.6%

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $192 0.5–6.6¢

Eric Trump

Vol $192 Spread —

Agg 3.4%

↓ -12.6%

P 3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $192 1.2–5.6¢

Katie Britt

Vol $7.1K Spread 0.9%

Agg 3.1%

↓ -23.9%

P 3.5%

K 2.7%

Joe Kent

Vol $306 Spread —

Agg 3.0%

↓ -22.5%

P 3.0%

Polymarket 3.0%

Vol $306 1.1–4.9¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $1.3K Spread 2.1%

Agg 2.5%

↓ -12.5%

P 3.6%

G 2.5%

K 1.5%

Brian Kemp

Vol $442 Spread 2.2%

Agg 2.5%

↓ -25.0%

P 3.6%

K 1.4%

Greg Abbott

Vol $233 Spread 1.9%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -20.7%

P 3.3%

K 1.4%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $182 Spread —

Agg 2.2%

↓ -20.3%

P 2.2%

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $182 0.8–3.6¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $4.1K Spread 0.3%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -18.0%

K 2.2%

P 1.9%

John Thune

Vol $226 Spread 3.0%

Agg 2.0%

↓ -38.3%

P 3.5%

K 0.5%

Matt Gaetz

Vol $362 Spread 2.3%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -16.3%

P 2.9%

K 0.5%

Byron Donalds

Vol $4.6K Spread 1.5%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -23.0%

K 2.3%

P 0.8%

Elon Musk

Vol $12.5K Spread 2.8%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -17.6%

P 2.9%

K 0.2%

Josh Hawley

Vol $1.1K Spread 2.3%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -26.0%

P 3.9%

K 1.6%

Nikki Haley

Vol $1.8K Spread 0.0%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -16.9%

K 1.5%

P 1.5%

Ted Cruz

Vol $278 Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -23.0%

G 1.5%

K 1.5%

P 0.6%

Rand Paul

Vol $207 Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -26.7%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $207 0.3–1.3¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $254 Spread 2.8%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -12.9%

P 3.4%

K 0.7%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
MR Marco Rubio	26.5% ↓ -0.5%	3.5%	$4.3K	Kalshi 26.5% 25–28¢ Vol $3.9K	Polymarket 28.5% 25–32¢ Vol $325	Gemini 25.0% 22–28¢	OG — —
KN Kristi Noem	21.9% ↑ +9.4%	—	$212	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 21.9% 4.5–39.3¢ Vol $212	Gemini — —	OG — —
DT Donald Trump	21.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$347	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 21.0% 3–39¢ Vol $347	Gemini — —	OG — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	19.9% ↑ +18.4%	—	$261	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 19.9% 3.7–36¢ Vol $261	Gemini — —	OG — —
MP Mike Pence	18.0% ↑ +2.9%	—	$259	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 18.0% 3.5–32.4¢ Vol $259	Gemini — —	OG — —
SB Steve Bannon	17.7% ↑ +5.6%	—	$192	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 17.7% 5.1–30.2¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —
IT Ivanka Trump	12.7% ↑ +0.2%	—	$225	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 12.7% 2.7–22.7¢ Vol $225	Gemini — —	OG — —
TM Thomas Massie	10.9% ↓ -6.6%	—	$212	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 10.9% 0.9–20.9¢ Vol $212	Gemini — —	OG — —
JDV J.D. Vance	7.6% ↓ -22.3%	3.9%	$5.8K	Kalshi 7.6% 7–8.3¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket 11.5% 10–13¢ Vol $896	Gemini 10.0% 8–12¢	OG — —
EK Erika Kirk	7.0% ↑ +0.5%	3.9%	$5.4K	Kalshi 5.1% 4.3–5.9¢ Vol $5.2K	Polymarket 9.0% 5.1–12.9¢ Vol $204	Gemini — —	OG — —
PH Pete Hegseth	5.6% ↓ -8.5%	—	$193	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 5.6% 0.8–10.3¢ Vol $193	Gemini — —	OG — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	5.4% ↓ -17.7%	2.7%	$545	Kalshi 5.4% 5.1–5.6¢ Vol $195	Polymarket 2.7% 1–4.3¢ Vol $350	Gemini — —	OG — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	4.5% ↓ -21.1%	—	$192	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.5% 1.5–7.4¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	4.3% ↓ -0.1%	0.3%	$1.8K	Kalshi 4.3% 4.1–4.5¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.0% 2–6¢	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	4.0% — +0.0%	—	$169	Kalshi 4.0% 3.1–4.8¢ Vol $169	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	3.8% ↓ -18.4%	2.5%	$255	Kalshi 5.1% 5–5.1¢ Vol $29	Polymarket 2.6% 0.9–4.3¢ Vol $227	Gemini — —	OG — —
TB Tom Brady	3.7% ↓ -20.3%	—	$248	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.7% 1.1–6.2¢ Vol $248	Gemini — —	OG — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	3.6% ↓ -9.9%	—	$199	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.6% 0.9–6.3¢ Vol $199	Gemini — —	OG — —
ES Elise Stefanik	3.6% ↓ -32.0%	1.4%	$234	Kalshi 2.9% 2–3.8¢ Vol $12	Polymarket 4.3% 1.5–7¢ Vol $222	Gemini — —	OG — —
TC Tucker Carlson	3.6% ↓ -18.0%	—	$192	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.6% 0.5–6.6¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —
ET Eric Trump	3.4% ↓ -12.6%	—	$192	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.4% 1.2–5.6¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —
KB Katie Britt	3.1% ↓ -23.9%	0.9%	$7.1K	Kalshi 2.7% 2.2–3.1¢ Vol $6.9K	Polymarket 3.5% 1–6¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —
JK Joe Kent	3.0% ↓ -22.5%	—	$306	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.0% 1.1–4.9¢ Vol $306	Gemini — —	OG — —
RD Ron DeSantis	2.5% ↓ -12.5%	2.1%	$1.3K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket 3.6% 1.1–6¢ Vol $194	Gemini 2.5% 1–4¢	OG — —
BK Brian Kemp	2.5% ↓ -25.0%	2.2%	$442	Kalshi 1.4% 1–1.8¢ Vol $234	Polymarket 3.6% 0.9–6.2¢ Vol $208	Gemini — —	OG — —
GA Greg Abbott	2.3% ↓ -20.7%	1.9%	$233	Kalshi 1.4% 1.2–1.5¢ Vol $51	Polymarket 3.3% 0.8–5.7¢ Vol $182	Gemini — —	OG — —
KK Kim Kardashian	2.2% ↓ -20.3%	—	$182	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.2% 0.8–3.6¢ Vol $182	Gemini — —	OG — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	2.1% ↓ -18.0%	0.3%	$4.1K	Kalshi 2.2% 1.6–2.8¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket 1.9% 1.3–2.5¢ Vol $473	Gemini — —	OG — —
JT John Thune	2.0% ↓ -38.3%	3.0%	$226	Kalshi 0.5% 0.3–0.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 3.5% 1.4–5.6¢ Vol $226	Gemini — —	OG — —
MG Matt Gaetz	1.7% ↓ -16.3%	2.3%	$362	Kalshi 0.5% 0.2–0.9¢ Vol $170	Polymarket 2.9% 0.9–4.8¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —
BD Byron Donalds	1.6% ↓ -23.0%	1.5%	$4.6K	Kalshi 2.3% 2.1–2.5¢ Vol $4.4K	Polymarket 0.8% 0.5–1.1¢ Vol $230	Gemini — —	OG — —
EM Elon Musk	1.6% ↓ -17.6%	2.8%	$12.5K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $12.3K	Polymarket 2.9% 1.2–4.7¢ Vol $212	Gemini — —	OG — —
JH Josh Hawley	1.6% ↓ -26.0%	2.3%	$1.1K	Kalshi 1.6% 1.2–1.9¢ Vol $891	Polymarket 3.9% 1.1–6.6¢ Vol $208	Gemini — —	OG — —
NH Nikki Haley	1.5% ↓ -16.9%	0.0%	$1.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1.3–1.7¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 1.5% 0.8–2.1¢ Vol $232	Gemini — —	OG — —
TC Ted Cruz	1.0% ↓ -23.0%	0.9%	$278	Kalshi 1.5% 1–1.9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.6% 0.3–0.9¢ Vol $278	Gemini 1.5% 0–3¢	OG — —
RP Rand Paul	0.8% ↓ -26.7%	—	$207	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.3–1.3¢ Vol $207	Gemini — —	OG — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.7% ↓ -12.9%	2.8%	$254	Kalshi 0.7% 0.3–1¢ Vol $62	Polymarket 3.4% 1.1–5.7¢ Vol $192	Gemini — —	OG — —

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 8.3¢	Sell @ P 10¢	+1.70%	+1.62%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 2.1¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 1.2¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.3¢	Sell @ K 5.1¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.3¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 1.4¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.9¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.5¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.70%	-0.77%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5.9¢	Sell @ P 5.1¢	-0.80%	-0.87%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.9¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	-0.80%	-0.87%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 1.3¢	-0.80%	-0.87%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.8¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.90%	-0.97%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	-0.90%	-0.97%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 1.6¢	-0.90%	-0.97%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 6¢	Sell @ K 4.1¢	-1.90%	-1.99%	No	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 3.1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	-2.10%	-2.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 3.8¢	Sell @ P 1.5¢	-2.30%	-2.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Gemini → Polymarket	Buy @ G 28¢	Sell @ P 25¢	-3.00%	-3.11%	No	G ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.3%	+24.20%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.7%	+23.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.9%	+23.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 25.0%	B 1.5%	+23.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 4.0%	+22.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Gemini	A 25.0%	B 2.5%	+22.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 4.3%	+22.20%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 5.1%	+21.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 5.1%	+21.40%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 5.4%	+21.15%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 25.0%	B 4.0%	+21.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket	A 28.5%	B 9.0%	+19.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 7.6%	+18.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 28.5%	B 10.9%	+17.60%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket	A 28.5%	B 11.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 28.5%	B 12.7%	+15.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Gemini	A 25.0%	B 10.0%	+15.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket	A 21.9%	B 9.0%	+12.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DT Donald Trump	EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket	A 21.0%	B 9.0%	+12.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 21.9%	B 10.9%	+11.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket	A 19.9%	B 9.0%	+10.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	SB Steve Bannon	Polymarket	A 28.5%	B 17.7%	+10.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MP Mike Pence	Polymarket	A 28.5%	B 18.0%	+10.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket	A 21.9%	B 11.5%	+10.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DT Donald Trump	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 21.0%	B 10.9%	+10.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DT Donald Trump	JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket	A 21.0%	B 11.5%	+9.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KN Kristi Noem	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 21.9%	B 12.7%	+9.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 19.9%	B 10.9%	+8.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MP Mike Pence	EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket	A 18.0%	B 9.0%	+8.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
SB Steve Bannon	EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket	A 17.7%	B 9.0%	+8.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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