Prediction Markets 2028 Republican VP Nominee

2028 Republican VP Nominee Odds & Predictions

LIVE

Updated 54 minutes ago · 11:28 PM PDT

2028 US President Odds Republican Nominee for President

Prediction markets have Marco Rubio as the favorite for 2028 Republican VP nominee race, with a 25.0% probability or, +300 odds. J.D. Vance is coming in at second with 6.5% (+1,438), while Donald J. Trump has a 4.3% chance. Total volume for the 2028 Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $36.6K in the last 30 days with $27.7K on Kalshi and $8.9K on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

-6.58%

J.D. Vance → View arbs

Current Favorite

25.0%

Marco Rubio 0.8%

30D Volume (Share)

$36.6K

Momentum Leader

+3.1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders 30D change

List of 2028 Republican VP Nominee Considerations

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Marco Rubio

Vol $4.2K Spread 5.0%

Agg 25.0%

↓ -0.8%

O 30.0%

K 25.0%

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $11.0K Spread 0.0%

Agg 6.5%

↓ -1.0%

K 6.5%

G 6.5%

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $799 Spread 1.7%

Agg 4.3%

↑ +0.2%

O 6.0%

K 4.3%

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $310 Spread 2.0%

Agg 4.0%

↑ +3.1%

O 6.0%

K 4.0%

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $1.5K Spread 2.2%

Agg 3.9%

↑ +0.7%

O 6.0%

K 3.9%

Erika Kirk

Vol $6.9K Spread 4.4%

Agg 3.6%

↓ -2.5%

O 8.0%

K 3.6%

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $100 Spread 2.5%

Agg 3.5%

↓ -0.4%

O 6.0%

K 3.5%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $470 Spread 2.3%

Agg 2.8%

↑ +0.3%

O 5.0%

K 2.8%

Byron Donalds

Vol $529 Spread 2.4%

Agg 2.7%

↑ +1.2%

O 5.0%

K 2.7%

Katie Britt

Vol $359 Spread 2.6%

Agg 2.5%

↓ -0.5%

O 5.0%

K 2.5%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $3.8K Spread 4.6%

Agg 2.5%

↑ +0.5%

O 7.0%

K 2.5%

Josh Hawley

Vol $283 Spread 4.4%

Agg 1.7%

↑ +0.1%

O 6.0%

K 1.7%

Nikki Haley

Vol $353 Spread 2.5%

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

O 4.0%

K 1.5%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $500 Spread 3.6%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -0.3%

O 5.0%

K 1.5%

Greg Abbott

Vol $175 Spread 1.7%

Agg 1.3%

— +0.0%

O 3.0%

K 1.3%

Ted Cruz

Vol $313 Spread 2.8%

Agg 1.3%

↑ +0.2%

O 4.0%

K 1.3%

Brian Kemp

Vol $594 Spread 5.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -1.6%

O 6.0%

K 0.8%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $1.4K Spread 3.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.9%

O 4.0%

K 0.8%

Matt Gaetz

Vol $262 Spread 3.3%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

O 4.0%

K 0.7%

John Thune

Vol $86 Spread 3.4%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -1.1%

O 4.0%

K 0.6%

Elon Musk

Vol $128 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.2%

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $5 0.1–0.2¢

Donald Trump

Vol $292 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -1.3%

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $140 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -3.0%

Eric Trump

Vol $135 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -2.9%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $124 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -11.5%

Joe Kent

Vol $213 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -2.6%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $180 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -2.0%

Kristi Noem

Vol $142 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -22.0%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $246 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -15.8%

Mike Pence

Vol $123 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -18.3%

Pete Hegseth

Vol $91 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -5.8%

Rand Paul

Vol $234 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -0.8%

Steve Bannon

Vol $142 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -22.6%

Thomas Massie

Vol $97 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -10.8%

Tom Brady

Vol $247 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -13.3%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $142 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -3.5%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $124 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

↓ -32.3%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
MR Marco Rubio	25.0% ↓ -0.8%	5.0%	$4.2K	Kalshi 25.0% 24–26¢ Vol $3.8K	Polymarket — — Vol $388	Gemini — —	OG 30.0% 30¢
JDV J.D. Vance	6.5% ↓ -1.0%	0.0%	$11.0K	Kalshi 6.5% 5.5–7.5¢ Vol $10.4K	Polymarket — — Vol $572	Gemini 6.5% 1–12¢	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	4.3% ↑ +0.2%	1.7%	$799	Kalshi 4.3% 4.1–4.4¢ Vol $799	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	4.0% ↑ +3.1%	2.0%	$310	Kalshi 4.0% 3.5–4.5¢ Vol $36	Polymarket — — Vol $274	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
GY Glenn Youngkin	3.9% ↑ +0.7%	2.2%	$1.5K	Kalshi 3.9% 3–4.7¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket — — Vol $204	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
EK Erika Kirk	3.6% ↓ -2.5%	4.4%	$6.9K	Kalshi 3.6% 3–4.2¢ Vol $6.7K	Polymarket — — Vol $226	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	3.5% ↓ -0.4%	2.5%	$100	Kalshi 3.5% 3.1–3.9¢ Vol $100	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
ES Elise Stefanik	2.8% ↑ +0.3%	2.3%	$470	Kalshi 2.8% 2.1–3.4¢ Vol $130	Polymarket — — Vol $340	Gemini — —	OG 5.0% 5¢
BD Byron Donalds	2.7% ↑ +1.2%	2.4%	$529	Kalshi 2.7% 2.3–3¢ Vol $269	Polymarket — — Vol $260	Gemini — —	OG 5.0% 5¢
KB Katie Britt	2.5% ↓ -0.5%	2.6%	$359	Kalshi 2.5% 2.1–2.8¢ Vol $215	Polymarket — — Vol $144	Gemini — —	OG 5.0% 5¢
TG Tulsi Gabbard	2.5% ↑ +0.5%	4.6%	$3.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2.1–2.8¢ Vol $3.4K	Polymarket — — Vol $364	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
JH Josh Hawley	1.7% ↑ +0.1%	4.4%	$283	Kalshi 1.7% 1.3–2¢ Vol $89	Polymarket — — Vol $194	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
NH Nikki Haley	1.5% — +0.0%	2.5%	$353	Kalshi 1.5% 1.3–1.7¢ Vol $8	Polymarket — — Vol $345	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
RD Ron DeSantis	1.5% ↓ -0.3%	3.6%	$500	Kalshi 1.5% 1–1.9¢ Vol $70	Polymarket — — Vol $430	Gemini — —	OG 5.0% 5¢
GA Greg Abbott	1.3% — +0.0%	1.7%	$175	Kalshi 1.3% 1.2–1.4¢ Vol $4	Polymarket — — Vol $170	Gemini — —	OG 3.0% 3¢
TC Ted Cruz	1.3% ↑ +0.2%	2.8%	$313	Kalshi 1.3% 1.1–1.4¢ Vol $6	Polymarket — — Vol $307	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
BK Brian Kemp	0.8% ↓ -1.6%	5.3%	$594	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $239	Polymarket — — Vol $355	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.8% ↓ -0.9%	3.3%	$1.4K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.5–1¢ Vol $121	Polymarket — — Vol $1.2K	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
MG Matt Gaetz	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	3.3%	$262	Kalshi 0.7% 0.5–0.9¢ Vol $22	Polymarket — — Vol $240	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
JT John Thune	0.6% ↓ -1.1%	3.4%	$86	Kalshi 0.6% 0.4–0.8¢ Vol $4	Polymarket — — Vol $82	Gemini — —	OG 4.0% 4¢
EM Elon Musk	0.2% — +0.0%	—	$128	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $5	Polymarket — — Vol $123	Gemini — —	OG — —
DT Donald Trump	0.0% ↓ -1.3%	—	$292	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $292	Gemini — —	OG — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	0.0% ↓ -3.0%	—	$140	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $140	Gemini — —	OG — —
ET Eric Trump	0.0% ↓ -2.9%	—	$135	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
IT Ivanka Trump	0.0% ↓ -11.5%	—	$124	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $124	Gemini — —	OG — —
JK Joe Kent	0.0% ↓ -2.6%	—	$213	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $213	Gemini — —	OG — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.0% ↓ -2.0%	—	$180	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $180	Gemini — —	OG — —
KN Kristi Noem	0.0% ↓ -22.0%	—	$142	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $142	Gemini — —	OG — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.0% ↓ -15.8%	—	$246	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $246	Gemini — —	OG — —
MP Mike Pence	0.0% ↓ -18.3%	—	$123	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $123	Gemini — —	OG — —
PH Pete Hegseth	0.0% ↓ -5.8%	—	$91	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $91	Gemini — —	OG — —
RP Rand Paul	0.0% ↓ -0.8%	—	$234	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $234	Gemini — —	OG — —
SB Steve Bannon	0.0% ↓ -22.6%	—	$142	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $142	Gemini — —	OG — —
TM Thomas Massie	0.0% ↓ -10.8%	—	$97	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $97	Gemini — —	OG — —
TB Tom Brady	0.0% ↓ -13.3%	—	$247	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $247	Gemini — —	OG — —
TC Tucker Carlson	0.0% ↓ -3.5%	—	$142	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $142	Gemini — —	OG — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	0.0% ↓ -32.3%	—	$124	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — — Vol $124	Gemini — —	OG — —

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

Loading lines...

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 7.5¢	Sell @ G 1¢	-6.50%	-6.58%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 2.5%	+22.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 2.7%	+22.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 2.8%	+22.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 3.5%	+21.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 3.6%	+21.40%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 3.9%	+21.15%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 4.0%	+21.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 4.3%	+20.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi	A 25.0%	B 6.5%	+18.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 2.5%	+4.05%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 2.7%	+3.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 2.8%	+3.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 3.5%	+3.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 3.6%	+2.90%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 3.9%	+2.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 4.0%	+2.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 6.5%	B 4.3%	+2.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 4.3%	B 2.5%	+1.80%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 4.3%	B 2.7%	+1.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 4.0%	B 2.5%	+1.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 4.3%	B 2.8%	+1.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 3.9%	B 2.5%	+1.40%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 4.0%	B 2.7%	+1.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 4.0%	B 2.8%	+1.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 3.9%	B 2.7%	+1.20%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 3.6%	B 2.5%	+1.15%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 3.9%	B 2.8%	+1.10%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 3.5%	B 2.5%	+1.05%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 3.6%	B 2.7%	+0.95%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 3.5%	B 2.7%	+0.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

Trending in politics
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds	Fed Decision April Odds
2028 Presidential Winner Odds	2028 Republican Nominee Odds
California Wealth Tax Odds of Passying	How Long Will Government Shutdown Last?
Next Attorney General Odds	2028 VP Republican Nominee Odds
Who Will Leave Their Role in Trump Administration?

Explore more categories

Sports

See today's top sports markets

Crypto

See today's top crypto and bitcoin markets

Mentions

See today's top mention markets

Politics

See today's top political markets

Culture

See today's top celebrity and entertainment markets

Economics

See today's prediction markets for global economy