Prediction Markets 2028 Republican VP Nominee

2028 Republican VP Nominee Odds & Predictions

LIVE

Updated 16 minutes ago · 10:46 PM PDT

2028 US President Odds Republican Nominee for President

Prediction markets have Marco Rubio as the favorite for 2028 Republican VP nominee race, with a 28.9% probability or, +246 odds. J.D. Vance is coming in at second with 6.2% (+1,511), while Marjorie Taylor Greene has a 6.2% chance. Total volume for the 2028 Republican Nominee market at Kalshi and Polymarket stands at $83.9K in the last 30 days with $70.7K on Kalshi and $13.2K on Polymarket. Our odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and OG to show consensus probabilities across prediction markets, updated hourly with arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

2.73%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Current Favorite

28.9%

Marco Rubio 0.5%

30D Volume (Share)

$83.9K

Momentum Leader

+1.9%

Kristi Noem 30D change

List of 2028 Republican VP Nominee Considerations

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Marco Rubio

Vol $4.7K Spread 4.0%

Agg 28.9%

↓ -0.5%

P 30.5%

G 29.5%

K 26.5%

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $5.4K Spread 1.3%

Agg 6.2%

↓ -0.4%

G 7.5%

P 6.5%

K 6.2%

MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vol $292 Spread —

Agg 6.2%

↓ -1.0%

P 6.2%

Polymarket 6.2%

Vol $292 5.6–6.7¢

Thomas Massie

Vol $433 Spread —

Agg 5.1%

↓ -5.9%

P 5.1%

Polymarket 5.1%

Vol $433 5.1–5.2¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $2.1K Spread 1.2%

Agg 4.7%

↑ +0.5%

K 4.7%

G 3.5%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $155 Spread —

Agg 4.7%

— +0.0%

P 4.7%

Polymarket 4.7%

Vol $155 0.4–9¢

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $2.4K Spread 6.0%

Agg 4.1%

↓ -0.1%

O 10.0%

K 4.1%

Rand Paul

Vol $165 Spread —

Agg 3.9%

↓ -2.5%

P 3.9%

Polymarket 3.9%

Vol $165 0.5–7.2¢

DTJ

Donald Trump Jr.

Vol $676 Spread —

Agg 3.4%

↑ +1.2%

P 3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $676 2.7–4¢

Donald Trump

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 3.2%

↑ +0.2%

P 3.2%

Polymarket 3.2%

Vol $1.5K 1.9–4.4¢

SHS

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Vol $617 Spread 6.4%

Agg 2.8%

↓ -0.7%

O 9.0%

K 2.8%

P 2.6%

Katie Britt

Vol $850 Spread 7.6%

Agg 2.7%

↓ -0.6%

O 9.0%

K 2.7%

P 1.5%

Byron Donalds

Vol $595 Spread 7.4%

Agg 2.7%

↓ -0.7%

O 8.0%

K 2.7%

P 0.7%

Erika Kirk

Vol $3.8K Spread 8.0%

Agg 2.6%

↑ +0.4%

O 9.0%

K 2.6%

P 1.0%

Elise Stefanik

Vol $194 Spread 5.5%

Agg 2.6%

↑ +0.8%

O 8.0%

P 5.1%

K 2.6%

Joe Kent

Vol $142 Spread —

Agg 2.6%

— +0.0%

P 2.6%

Polymarket 2.6%

Vol $142 0.3–4.8¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $978 Spread 5.6%

Agg 2.5%

↑ +1.0%

O 7.0%

P 2.6%

G 1.5%

K 1.5%

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $48.8K Spread 9.3%

Agg 2.5%

↓ -1.4%

O 10.0%

K 2.5%

P 0.7%

Kristi Noem

Vol $157 Spread —

Agg 2.4%

↑ +1.9%

P 2.4%

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $157 0.3–4.5¢

Ron DeSantis

Vol $4.5K Spread 7.4%

Agg 2.4%

↑ +0.4%

O 8.0%

G 2.5%

K 1.8%

P 0.7%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $148 Spread —

Agg 2.0%

↓ -2.7%

P 2.0%

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $148 0.3–3.6¢

Josh Hawley

Vol $268 Spread 5.4%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.9%

O 7.0%

P 2.9%

K 1.7%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $1.6K Spread 6.3%

Agg 1.7%

↓ -1.2%

O 7.0%

K 1.7%

P 0.8%

Nikki Haley

Vol $557 Spread 5.6%

Agg 1.5%

↓ -1.1%

O 7.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.4%

Elon Musk

Vol $150 Spread 1.8%

Agg 1.3%

↑ +1.2%

P 2.3%

K 0.4%

Brian Kemp

Vol $262 Spread 5.8%

Agg 1.3%

↓ -2.8%

O 7.0%

P 3.5%

K 1.3%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $135 Spread —

Agg 1.1%

↓ -3.0%

P 1.1%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $135 0.5–1.7¢

Matt Gaetz

Vol $350 Spread 5.6%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.7%

O 6.0%

P 1.7%

K 0.4%

Pete Hegseth

Vol $388 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $388 0.4–1.6¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $147 Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $147 0.2–1.4¢

Greg Abbott

Vol $223 Spread 5.4%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.8%

O 6.0%

K 0.9%

P 0.7%

Eric Trump

Vol $330 Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.4%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $330 0.6–0.8¢

Mike Pence

Vol $145 Spread —

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.6%

P 0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%

Vol $145 0.3–0.9¢

John Thune

Vol $272 Spread 5.5%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

O 6.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.5%

Tom Brady

Vol $135 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $135 0.2–0.9¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $321 Spread 6.5%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.4%

O 7.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Steve Bannon

Vol $140 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $140 0.2–0.8¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
MR Marco Rubio	28.9% ↓ -0.5%	4.0%	$4.7K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $3.0K	Gemini 29.5% 29–30¢	OG — —
JDV J.D. Vance	6.2% ↓ -0.4%	1.3%	$5.4K	Kalshi 6.2% 6–6.3¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket 6.5% 5–8¢ Vol $440	Gemini 7.5% 7–8¢	OG — —
MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	6.2% ↓ -1.0%	—	$292	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.2% 5.6–6.7¢ Vol $292	Gemini — —	OG — —
TM Thomas Massie	5.1% ↓ -5.9%	—	$433	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 5.1% 5.1–5.2¢ Vol $433	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump	4.7% ↑ +0.5%	1.2%	$2.1K	Kalshi 4.7% 3.6–5.8¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini 3.5% 3–4¢	OG — —
IT Ivanka Trump	4.7% — +0.0%	—	$155	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.7% 0.4–9¢ Vol $155	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	4.1% ↓ -0.1%	6.0%	$2.4K	Kalshi 4.1% 3.9–4.2¢ Vol $2.4K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 10.0% 10¢
RP Rand Paul	3.9% ↓ -2.5%	—	$165	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.9% 0.5–7.2¢ Vol $165	Gemini — —	OG — —
DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	3.4% ↑ +1.2%	—	$676	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.4% 2.7–4¢ Vol $676	Gemini — —	OG — —
DT Donald Trump	3.2% ↑ +0.2%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.2% 1.9–4.4¢ Vol $1.5K	Gemini — —	OG — —
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	2.8% ↓ -0.7%	6.4%	$617	Kalshi 2.8% 2.2–3.3¢ Vol $358	Polymarket 2.6% 1.2–4¢ Vol $260	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
KB Katie Britt	2.7% ↓ -0.6%	7.6%	$850	Kalshi 2.7% 2.4–3¢ Vol $715	Polymarket 1.5% 0.7–2.2¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
BD Byron Donalds	2.7% ↓ -0.7%	7.4%	$595	Kalshi 2.7% 2.5–2.8¢ Vol $354	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $241	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
EK Erika Kirk	2.6% ↑ +0.4%	8.0%	$3.8K	Kalshi 2.6% 2.4–2.8¢ Vol $3.7K	Polymarket 1.0% 0.4–1.6¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
ES Elise Stefanik	2.6% ↑ +0.8%	5.5%	$194	Kalshi 2.6% 2.4–2.7¢ Vol $29	Polymarket 5.1% 0.5–9.7¢ Vol $165	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
JK Joe Kent	2.6% — +0.0%	—	$142	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.6% 0.3–4.8¢ Vol $142	Gemini — —	OG — —
TC Ted Cruz	2.5% ↑ +1.0%	5.6%	$978	Kalshi 1.5% 1.3–1.6¢ Vol $195	Polymarket 2.6% 1.1–4¢ Vol $783	Gemini 1.5% 1–2¢	OG 7.0% 7¢
GY Glenn Youngkin	2.5% ↓ -1.4%	9.3%	$48.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $48.6K	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.8¢ Vol $228	Gemini — —	OG 10.0% 10¢
KN Kristi Noem	2.4% ↑ +1.9%	—	$157	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.4% 0.3–4.5¢ Vol $157	Gemini — —	OG — —
RD Ron DeSantis	2.4% ↑ +0.4%	7.4%	$4.5K	Kalshi 1.8% 1.1–2.4¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $170	Gemini 2.5% 2–3¢	OG 8.0% 8¢
TC Tucker Carlson	2.0% ↓ -2.7%	—	$148	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.0% 0.3–3.6¢ Vol $148	Gemini — —	OG — —
JH Josh Hawley	1.7% ↓ -0.9%	5.4%	$268	Kalshi 1.7% 1.4–1.9¢ Vol $42	Polymarket 2.9% 0.7–5.1¢ Vol $226	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
TG Tulsi Gabbard	1.7% ↓ -1.2%	6.3%	$1.6K	Kalshi 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $941	Polymarket 0.8% 0.6–0.9¢ Vol $663	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
NH Nikki Haley	1.5% ↓ -1.1%	5.6%	$557	Kalshi 1.5% 1.4–1.6¢ Vol $89	Polymarket 1.4% 0.9–1.9¢ Vol $469	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
EM Elon Musk	1.3% ↑ +1.2%	1.8%	$150	Kalshi 0.4% 0.2–0.6¢ Vol $15	Polymarket 2.3% 0.3–4.2¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
BK Brian Kemp	1.3% ↓ -2.8%	5.8%	$262	Kalshi 1.3% 0.8–1.7¢ Vol $10	Polymarket 3.5% 1.6–5.3¢ Vol $252	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	1.1% ↓ -3.0%	—	$135	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.1% 0.5–1.7¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
MG Matt Gaetz	1.0% ↑ +0.7%	5.6%	$350	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $215	Polymarket 1.7% 0.3–3¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
PH Pete Hegseth	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$388	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.4–1.6¢ Vol $388	Gemini — —	OG — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.8% ↓ -0.3%	—	$147	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.2–1.4¢ Vol $147	Gemini — —	OG — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.8% ↓ -0.8%	5.4%	$223	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.7% 0.5–0.8¢ Vol $217	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
ET Eric Trump	0.7% ↓ -0.4%	—	$330	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.8¢ Vol $330	Gemini — —	OG — —
MP Mike Pence	0.6% ↓ -0.6%	—	$145	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.6% 0.3–0.9¢ Vol $145	Gemini — —	OG — —
JT John Thune	0.5% — +0.0%	5.5%	$272	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.7¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $267	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
TB Tom Brady	0.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$135	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.2–0.9¢ Vol $135	Gemini — —	OG — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.5% ↓ -0.4%	6.5%	$321	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $113	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.8¢ Vol $208	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
SB Steve Bannon	0.5% ↓ -0.2%	—	$140	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.2–0.8¢ Vol $140	Gemini — —	OG — —

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

Loading lines...

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 27¢	Sell @ P 30¢	+3.00%	+2.73%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BD Byron Donalds	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 2.5¢	+1.80%	+1.73%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+1.60%	+1.53%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ G 2¢	+1.30%	+1.29%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
EK Erika Kirk	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1.6¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 6.3¢	Sell @ G 7¢	+0.70%	+0.60%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎
KB Katie Britt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.2¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MG Matt Gaetz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
BK Brian Kemp	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.7¢	Sell @ P 1.6¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JT John Thune	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.7¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
EM Elon Musk	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.3¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 4¢	Sell @ K 3.6¢	-0.40%	-0.49%	No	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 1.4¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TC Ted Cruz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.6¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JH Josh Hawley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.9¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-1.20%	-1.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4¢	Sell @ K 2.2¢	-1.80%	-1.87%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.7¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-2.20%	-2.27%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 29.5%	B 1.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DT Donald Trump	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.2%	+27.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTJ Donald Trump Jr.	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.4%	+27.15%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	BK Brian Kemp	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.5%	+27.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Gemini	A 29.5%	B 2.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RP Rand Paul	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 3.9%	+26.65%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 29.5%	B 3.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	IT Ivanka Trump	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 4.7%	+25.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	ES Elise Stefanik	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 5.1%	+25.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TM Thomas Massie	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 5.1%	+25.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	MTG Marjorie Taylor Greene	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 6.2%	+24.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.5%	+24.05%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Polymarket	A 30.5%	B 6.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.6%	+23.95%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.6%	+23.90%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.7%	+23.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.7%	+23.80%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	SHS Sarah Huckabee Sanders	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 2.8%	+23.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 4.1%	+22.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Gemini	A 29.5%	B 7.5%	+22.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 4.7%	+21.80%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi	A 26.5%	B 6.2%	+20.35%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Ted Cruz	Gemini	A 7.5%	B 1.5%	+6.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Gemini	A 7.5%	B 2.5%	+5.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 7.5%	B 3.5%	+4.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi	A 6.2%	B 2.5%	+3.70%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	ES Elise Stefanik	Kalshi	A 6.2%	B 2.6%	+3.60%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	EK Erika Kirk	Kalshi	A 6.2%	B 2.6%	+3.55%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	BD Byron Donalds	Kalshi	A 6.2%	B 2.7%	+3.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KB Katie Britt	Kalshi	A 6.2%	B 2.7%	+3.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

Trending in politics
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds	Fed Decision September Odds
2028 Presidential Winner Odds	2028 Republican Nominee Odds
California Wealth Tax Odds of Passing	How Long Will Government Shutdown Last?
Next Attorney General Odds	2028 VP Republican Nominee Odds
Who Will Leave Their Role in Trump Administration?

Explore more categories

Sports

See today's top sports markets

Crypto

See today's top crypto and bitcoin markets

Mentions

See today's top mention markets

Politics

See today's top political markets

Culture

See today's top celebrity and entertainment markets

Economics

See today's prediction markets for global economy