Trump Signs Government Funding Bill, Shutdown Ends

What happens next

The House was expected to vote Tuesday to end the shutdown. The Senate-passed deal funds most agencies through September but extends DHS funding for only two weeks while Democrats negotiate ICE reforms. Key holdouts Anna Paulina Luna and Tim Burchett dropped their opposition Monday after a White House meeting. Trump urged Republicans to pass the bill with “NO CHANGES” on Truth Social.

If the House passes the package Tuesday and Trump signs it, the shutdown ends. But as the Washington Post reports, a new DHS funding deadline in mid-February sets up another potential standoff.

Key dates

• January 22: House passed DHS funding bill (H.R. 7147, 220-207) and broader spending package (H.R. 7148, 341-88)
• January 24: Fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis
• January 25-26: Senate Democrats announce they will block DHS funding
• January 30: Funding deadline at midnight
• January 31: Partial shutdown begins at 12:01 AM; Senate passes revised deal 71-29
• February 2: House Rules Committee advances package
• February 3: House floor vote expected
• Mid-February: New DHS funding deadline

Why the next two weeks matter

Democrats are demanding ICE reforms before agreeing to full DHS funding: body cameras turned on, masks off, an end to roving patrols, and new accountability measures. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that Democrats will not provide votes for the next DHS bill without “real change.” Senator John Kennedy predicted the negotiations will have “all of the substance and efficiency of an eighth grade car wash.” (Source: NBC News)

How Kalshi tracked the 2025 shutdown

The October-November 2025 shutdown ran 43 days (October 1 – November 12), becoming the longest in US history and generating significant trading volume for Kalshi. The dispute centered on ACA premium subsidies set to expire at the end of the year. Democrats demanded an extension but Republicans wanted to address spending separately. Eight Senate Democrats eventually crossed over to break the impasse, but the deal punted on subsidies—a promised December vote failed to extend them. (Full appropriations timeline)

Early forecasts underestimated the standoff. In early October, implied duration sat around 11 days. By late October, “more than 35 days” traded at 67% and “more than 40 days” hovered near 48%. As negotiations repeatedly collapsed, median forecasts pushed past 46 days before eventual resolution at 43. Cumulative volume across shutdown-related contracts reached approximately $47 million over the 43-day period.

Kalshi structured its coverage around duration contracts rather than a simple Yes/No binary. Traders could buy positions on thresholds like “Above 35 days,” “Above 40 days,” and so on. Similar markets continue to exist, though not at the same level as the previous. The biggest market right now is Will there be a US government shutdown on January 31?