Government Shutdown OddsWill the U.S. Government Be Shut Down on December 12, 2026?

Government shutdown odds for December 12

This page tracks whether the U.S. federal government will be at least partially shut down at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 12, 2026. The live Yes/No board above follows Kalshi's December contract, rather than the completed DHS shutdown-duration markets.

The question is about the government's status at that specific time. It does not ask how long a shutdown would last or how many shutdowns will occur during the year. A shutdown that ends before the observation time does not meet this contract's condition.

What Yes and No mean

Yes: a lapse in appropriations has caused at least a partial federal government shutdown that is in effect at the observation time. No: that condition is not met.

A partial shutdown can qualify; the entire federal government does not have to stop operating. The important distinction is between an actual suspension of non-excepted agency work because funding is unavailable and an ordinary closure or a technical funding lapse without a shutdown.

How Kalshi resolves the shutdown market

Kalshi names the Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Office of Personnel Management as settlement sources. Its rules describe qualifying evidence such as an OMB shutdown directive in effect at the observation time, or an OPM operating-status notice reporting a partial lapse in appropriations.

To read the full contract rules in Kalshi, search for KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26DEC12, titled “Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?” The named sources are OMB and OPM's operating-status page.

What does not count as a shutdown?

A technical lapse in appropriations does not qualify if OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations. Closures for federal holidays, severe weather or other emergencies also do not qualify unless they coincide with a shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations.

The contract therefore requires more than a missed funding deadline. Its settlement turns on the operating conditions described in the rules at the specified observation time.

Which prediction markets are included?

This board currently uses the Kalshi December 12 contract only. It does not combine prices from the annual shutdown-count market or from older DHS funding and duration markets.

Source: DeFi Rate aggregation of Kalshi market data for KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26DEC12. Live prices and their observation times appear in the market modules above. We keep contracts with different deadlines or additional conditions separate rather than treating their prices as interchangeable.

How to read the Yes/No prices

Prices express the market's implied probability. The price offered to buy Yes and the price offered to buy No can include a spread, so the two purchase prices do not have to add to exactly one dollar.

For a hypothetical example, buying 100 Yes contracts at 40 cents costs $40 before fees. If Yes settles, those contracts pay $100, a $60 profit before fees. If No settles, the Yes position pays nothing. The live board, not this example, shows current prices.

The shutdown date to watch

The contract's observation time is Dec. 12, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET, equivalent to 7 a.m. PT. Funding developments before then can affect trading, but the settlement question remains whether a qualifying shutdown is in effect at that time.

The earlier DHS shutdown is a separate historical event. Its duration and final trading volume are not the result or volume of this December contract.

More prediction market coverage

See DeFi Rate's guides to Kalshi, Polymarket and current political prediction markets.