The 2026 World Cup group stage concluded when Lionel Messi inspired Argentina to a 3-1 win against Jordan on June 28. Soccer fans were treated to 17 days of intense action, including big wins for the USMNT, Canada, and Mexico. All three co-hosts qualified for the knockout stage, along with elite teams like Argentina, England, France, and Spain. There were 2.99 goals per game – the most since 1958 – so anyone routinely backing over 2.5 goals ended the group stage in profit.
Prediction markets with Group Stage odds
2026 World Cup Group A review
Mexico won Group A after beating South Africa 2-0 and South Korea 1-0 in its first two games. El Tri then beat Czechia 3-0 in their group stage closer, maintaining 100% winning record at this tournament. That defeat resulted in Czechia being eliminated from the tournament. South Africa clinched the runner-up spot after picking up a shock 1-0 victory over South Korea on Matchday 2. The South Koreans finished third, with just one win and two losses.
2026 World Cup Group B review
Switzerland won Group B after battling to a 2-1 win against Canada in Vancouver on Matchday 3. The Swiss ended the group stage with two wins and a draw. Canada was second after drawing 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina and thrashing Qatar 6-0. Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 on Matchday 3, so it finished level with Canada on four points, but Canada’s goal difference was superior.
2026 World Cup Group C review
Brazil and Morocco finished level with seven points each at the top of Group C. They drew 1-1 on Matchday 1, and both teams then beat Haiti and Scotland. However, Brazil had a significantly better goal difference, so the Seleção finished first. Morocco was the runner-up, and Scotland clinched third place courtesy of a 1-0 win against Haiti on Matchday 2.
2026 World Cup Group D review
The USA won Group D after thumping Paraguay 4-1 in its opening game and then beating Australia 2-0 in Seattle on Matchday 2. That left the USMNT with an unassailable lead at the top of the group. Folarin Balogun has been in superb form for his country, while the likes of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams have also played well at this tournament. Türkiye was eliminated after losing 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay. It dominated both of those matches, but poor finishing cost Türkiye. Australia and Paraguay drew 0-0 in their final group stage match, so Australia clinched the runner-up spot. The USA lost 3-2 to Türkiye in its final group stage game, but it was a meaningless result for both teams.
2026 World Cup Group E review
Germany won Group E after making a perfect start to the tournament. Die Mannschaft beat Curaçao 7-1 in its opening game, before two goals from Deniz Undav earned it a 2-1 comeback win against Ivory Coast. The Germans lost 2-1 to Ecuador in their final group stage match, but they still finished top of the group. Ivory Coast clinched second place. The Elephants beat Ecuador 1-0 on Matchday 1, courtesy of a late goal from Amad Diallo. They have rapid wingers like Yan Diomande and Simon Adingra, and they were a little unfortunate to lose to Germany on Matchday 2, but they bounced back with a 2-0 win against Curaçao. Ecuador third second courtesy of that 2-1 victory over Germany on June 25.
2026 World Cup Group F review
The Netherlands won Group F after maintaining an unbeaten record during the group stage. Ronald Koeman’s men could only draw 2-2 with Japan in their opener, but they then thrashed Sweden 5-1 and eased to a 3-1 win against Tunisia. Japan was the runner-up after beating Tunisia 4-0 and drawing 1-1 with Sweden. The Swedes had to settle for third place, despite beating Tunisia 5-1 in their opener. Their 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands proved costly, and they ultimately finished a point behind Japan after drawing with Hajime Moriyasu’s team on Matchday 3.
2026 World Cup Group G review
Belgium won Group G after cruising to a 5-1 win against New Zealand on Matchday 3. The Belgians made a slow start to the tournament, drawing with Egypt and Iran, but that heavy victory ensured they clinched the group. Egypt had to settle for second place. The Pharaohs finished level on points with Belgium, but they had an inferior goal difference. Iran was third after drawing all three of its games, while New Zealand only picked up one point.
2026 World Cup Group H review
Spain finished top of Group H, despite drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde on Matchday 1. La Roja bounced back with a 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia and a 1-0 victory over Uruguay, extending their long unbeaten streak. Cape Verde took the runner-up spot after drawing 2-2 with Uruguay and 0-0 with Saudi Arabia. Uruguay and Saudi Arabia were both eliminated.
2026 World Cup Group I review
France won Group I after beating all three of its opponents. Les Bleus clinched an impressive 3-1 win against Senegal on Matchday 1, before beating Iraq 3-0, and Norway 4-1. The Norwegians rested 10 members of their starting lineup for that game against France. They had already qualified after beating Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2 in their first two games, and they were happy to settle for the runner-up spot. Senegal clinched third place courtesy of a 5-0 win against Iraq on June 26.
2026 World Cup Group J review
Argentina won Group J after beating Algeria 3-0 and Austria 2-0 in its first two games. Lionel Messi fired in all five of Argentina’s goals, and he’s now the record World Cup goalscorer. He scored again after coming off the bench in a 3-1 win against Jordan on Matchday 3. Austria and Algeria played out a thrilling 3-3 draw on Matchday 3, which ensured that Austria took the runner-up spot and Austria qualified for the knockout stage as one of the best third-place teams.
2026 World Cup Group K review
Colombia won Group K after beating Uzbekistan and DR Congo in its first two games, before drawing 0-0 with Portugal. The Portuguese were unbeten, but draws with DR Congo and Colombia meant they had to settle for second place. DR Congo clinched third place with a 3-1 win against Uzbekistan on Matchday 3, propelling it into the Round of 32.
2026 World Cup Group L review
England won Group L after picking up seven points from three games. The Three Lions beat Croatia 4-2, drew 0-0 with Ghana, and then beat Panama 2-0. Croatia bounced back by beating Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1, so it finished second. Ghana’s 1-0 win against Panama on Matchday 1 ensured it finished third and qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament.
How the 2026 World Cup group stage worked
The World Cup contenders were divided into 12 groups. Each group featured four teams of mixed ability. FIFA used a seeding process, which was designed to ensure that the world’s strongest teams were kept apart during the group stage. It means that there’s normally a heavy favorite in each group, such as Spain or Brazil.
Here’s how the group stage works:
- Each team played the other three teams in its group a single time. A team gets 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw (tie), and no points for a loss.
- At the end of the group stage, the teams were ranked in order of points earned. If two or more teams finished level on points, goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded) was used to separate them. If they had an identical goal difference, the team that scored the most goals placed higher.
- The top two teams in each group automatically qualified for the knockout stage (the Round of 32).
- The eight best third-place teams (those with the most points, or the superior goal difference in a tiebreaker) also advanced.
- There was a clear incentive for a team to win its group, as they knew it should theoretically lead to an easier Round of 32 game and a clearer path to the latter stages of the tournament.
In the past, the World Cup only featured 32 teams divided into eight groups, with the top two teams advancing to what was then the Round of 16. The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, and FIFA added an extra round, the new Round of 32, before the Round of 16 begins. This could lead to more mismatches in the group stage and in the new Round of 32, giving elite strikers more chances to bolster their goal tallies against weak opponents.
World Cup group prediction markets explained
Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket let you buy yes/no contracts on whether a certain team will win its World Cup group. They aren’t sportsbooks, so you aren’t placing wagers against the house. You’re trading contracts with fellow users, and the sites just take a hosting fee. For each team, you’ll see a “Yes” price and a “No” price, which will be between $0.00 and $0.99. The contracts settle at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Here’s an example:
- Let’s say you want to back the USA to win Group D. You select the “World Cup Group D Winner” market, and you see these options: “USA – Yes 44¢, No 58¢.”
- Tap the “Yes 44¢” button, and your selection will appear on the trading slip. You can then enter the amount you wish to spend.
- Let’s say you enter $100. The site will tell you that you’re buying 227 contracts at 44¢ each. The odds suggest a 44% chance of success. Each contract will settle at $1 if the USA wins the group, so your payout will be $227.
- If you’re happy, complete the trade. You can then hold onto your contracts until the group stage has concluded. If the USMNT wins Group D, the site will transfer $227 to your account balance.
- Alternatively, you can sell the contracts before the group stage ends. For example, let’s say the USA wins its opening game against Paraguay. At that point, “Yes” contracts might be trading at 55¢. If so, you could sell your 227 contracts for $124.85, which would net you a $24.85 profit. You could alternatively sell some contracts and leave the rest riding on the result.
Resolution criteria vary by platform but generally follow the same principle: the contract resolves in favor of whichever team finishes first in the group after all three group stage matches have been played. On Kalshi and Polymarket, group winner contracts settle based on the official FIFA standings at the conclusion of the group stage, including any tiebreakers applied by FIFA. If a match is abandoned or replayed, resolution follows the official FIFA result. Check the individual contract’s Rules tab on each platform for the specific terms before trading.
Prediction markets are regulated at a federal level by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Sites like Kalshi operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges, so they can offer event contracts across most of the country. Sports event contracts aren’t permitted in some states, but they’re available in the majority. They’re especially popular in states like California and Texas, which haven’t legalized online sports betting.
Where to trade or bet on World Cup groups
These are the top five sites to buy and sell yes/no contracts on the World Cup groups:
- Kalshi: This is the leading US prediction site, which offers a wide range of markets on the 2026 World Cup. You’ll often find inflated odds on teams like the USA and Mexico, so Kalshi could be a good option if you decide to fade them.
- Polymarket: A major rival to Kalshi, which has more of a global trader base. More volume is flowing through Polymarket than any other World Cup prediction market, so liquidity is strong, and it’s a good place to back the USA to win its group.
- DraftKings: The Boston-based sports betting giant launched DraftKings Predictions in December 2025, offering a large welcome bonus and fast payouts.
- Fanatics: You’ll find a comprehensive soccer section at Fanatics Markets/
- Underdog: Soccer fans can claim a $50 welcome bonus at Underdog Predict using code DEFIRATE. The site covers the World Cup, along with various other tournaments.
You’ll find lots of extra World Cup markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, too. You can also back a team to reach a certain stage, such as the semifinals, or predict who will win the 2026 World Cup.
There are markets on individual awards like the Golden Boot winner, plus special props like “Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?” Prediction sites are offering a range of markets on each game as well, including the match winner, total goals, both teams to score, half-time result, and more.