Elite teams like France, Spain, England, and Argentina are heavy favorites to win their groups at the World Cup this summer. Other groups look much closer, including an intriguing battle between the USA and Türkiye in Group D. The group winner markets have generated more than $1.3M in volume on Polymarket and $318.8K on Kalshi. Contracts will settle after the final games have concluded in each group. Our 2026 FIFA World Cup group winner odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates.
2026 World Cup groups
2026 World Cup Group A preview
Mexico is the favorite to win Group A. El Tri will have home advantage throughout the group stage, as their games will be held in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. They’re surging with momentum after winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup and the Nations League in 2025, and the players should have no trouble handling the heat.
However, this group looks wide open. Kalshi has Mexico at 53%, with Czechia and South Korea both sitting at 22%, which is as tight a second-place race as you’ll find in the tournament. South Korea has plenty of gifted players, from veteran striker Son Heung-Min to PSG playmaker Lee Kang-in. Czechia is another strong team, led by Bayer Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick, and South Africa impressed during the World Cup qualifying campaign. If you’re looking for a group in which the favorite could be toppled, Group A stands out.
2026 World Cup Group B preview
Group B also looks wide open. Switzerland is the favorite, as highly-rated manager Murat Yakin has a strong squad at his disposal. Gregor Kobel, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi, Granit Xhaka, and Breel Embolo provide a strong spine, while Noah Okafor is a livewire in attack. However, the Swiss are only No. 19 in the world rankings, and they aren’t in the elite tier.
Canada is the second favorite, priced at 26% with Kalshi and 27% with Polymarket. The CANMNT will play their group stage games in Toronto and Vancouver, which gives them a distinct advantage. Their counterattacking style makes them dangerous, especially if Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies are firing on all cylinders. Bosnia and Herzegovina did well to beat Italy in the playoffs, so they could also cause problems for their opponents in Group B. Polymarket currently prices them at 20%, nearly level with Canada. Qatar lost all three group stage games at the last World Cup, which doesn’t bode well.
2026 World Cup Group C preview
Brazil is the heavy favorite to win Group C, priced at 77% with Polymarket and 76% on Kalshi. The Samba Boys have won the World Cup more times than any other team, but their last triumph came in 2002. Their squad is stacked with world-class players, including Vinícius Júnior, and they finally have a top-tier manager in Carlo Ancelotti. However, they only finished fifth in the South American World Cup qualifying group, and several key players are injured.
That could open the door for Morocco in Group C. The Atlas Lions reached the semifinals of the last World Cup, and they were recently crowned champions of Africa, albeit in controversial circumstances. CAF stripped Senegal of the title and awarded it to Morocco in March 2026, a decision Senegal has since appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Morocco is an underdog at 21% on Kalshi and 18% on Polymarket, and that could reflect concerns about an injury to captain Achraf Hakimi. Group C matches will be played in New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Miami. Scotland is priced at 5% with Polymarket, but traders have staked more than $130,000 on Steve Clarke’s men, while Haiti is a huge underdog at 1%.
2026 World Cup Group D preview
Patriotic traders on Kalshi make the USA the clear favorite to win this group, priced at 44%, ahead of Türkiye at 35%, Paraguay at 17%, and Australia at 9%. Team USA will certainly benefit from strong home support during their games in Inglewood and Seattle. They also have a strong core of players, featuring the likes of Weston McKennie, Chris Richards, and Folarin Balogun. However, star player Christian Pulisic has struggled for AC Milan this season.
Polymarket, which has more of a global user base, tells a different story. The USA and Türkiye are nearly neck-and-neck on that site at 40% and 36% respectively, as traders expect a tight race. Türkiye’s squad isn’t as deep as the USA’s, but it arguably features more star power: Real Madrid playmaker Arda Güler, Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz, and Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu are all elite players. Paraguay and Australia are both strong defensively, too, so this group looks very competitive.
2026 World Cup Group E preview
Germany is the overwhelming favorite to win Group E, priced at 69% on Kalshi and 71% on Polymarket. Die Mannschaft has world-class players like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz in their ranks, but it’s worth remembering that they were eliminated in the group stage at the last two World Cups. Group E matches will be played in Houston, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Kansas City.
Ecuador finished second in the South American World Cup qualifying group, ahead of strong teams like Brazil and Colombia, and is priced at 22% on Kalshi. The team boasts some truly elite players, such as Moisés Caicedo, Willian Pacho, and Piero Hincapié. Ivory Coast is another talented team, with rapid wingers like Amad Diallo and Simon Adingra, currently priced at 12% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket. Curaçao is the smallest country to ever qualify for the World Cup, so it could end the group stage with zero points.
2026 World Cup Group F preview
This looks like the most intriguing World Cup group. The Netherlands has climbed to No. 7 in the FIFA world rankings after embarking on a 14-game unbeaten streak, and the market has taken notice. They’re now priced at 57% on Kalshi and 54% on Polymarket, up significantly from earlier in the cycle. They have a superb defense led by Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk, while the midfield offers the perfect blend of steel and flair. However, the Dutch lack a world-class goalscorer. Group F matches will be played in Arlington, Houston, Monterrey, and Kansas City.
Japan looks like a serious contender and is the second favorite on both platforms at 26% on Kalshi and 28% on Polymarket. The team looked well-drilled when it beat England in a friendly in March. Japan may lack the physicality of the Netherlands, but they’re tactically astute, and Kaoru Mitoma is a brilliant winger. Sweden has a weak defense, but an attack featuring Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak looks formidable. Tunisia is one of the best teams in Africa too, so there’s everything to play for in this group.
2026 World Cup Group G preview
Belgium is clearly the top dog in Group G, priced at 69% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The Red Devils spent almost seven years at the top of the FIFA world rankings between 2015 and 2022, but they failed to win a major trophy. They’ve regressed since then, as several key members of the golden generation retired, but they still have a strong starting XI. Thibaut Courtois is arguably the world’s best goalkeeper, Kevin De Bruyne is a phenomenal playmaker, and the likes of Jérémy Doku and Romelu Lukaku are very lively in attack. Group G matches will be played in Seattle, Inglewood, and Vancouver.
The Belgians should cruise through the group stage, as they look vastly superior to Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand. Egypt is the second favorite at 15% on Kalshi and 16% on Polymarket, but the fans will be sweating on the fitness of star player Mohammed Salah. He has looked like a fading force for Liverpool this season, and it remains to be seen if he can drag Egypt to victory, as he has endured an injury-hit campaign. Iran is a strong team, but geopolitical tensions could derail preparations, while New Zealand lacks quality beyond striker Chris Wood.
2026 World Cup Group H preview
Spain is the heavy favorite in Group H, priced at 78% on Kalshi and 80% on Polymarket. La Roja are currently on a 33-game unbeaten streak, and they were imperious when they won the European Championship in 2024. They have an exceptional midfield, featuring Rodri and Pedri, and remarkable strength in depth. Star forward Lamine Yamal is injured, but he’s expected to recover in time for the World Cup. Group H matches will be played in Atlanta, Miami, and Guadalajara.
Uruguay looks like the only team capable of beating Spain, priced at 18% on Kalshi and 16% on Polymarket. La Celeste has quality players like Federico Valverde, Ronald Araújo, and Darwin Núñez, and Marcelo Bielsa is a bold, risk-taking manager. Saudi Arabia pulled off a stunning win against Argentina at the last World Cup, but the Saudis recently fired their manager, plunging their preparations into chaos. The group also features Cape Verde, a team that could struggle to make an impact.
2026 World Cup Group I preview
France is the heavy favorite to win Group I, priced at 66% on Kalshi and 71% on Polymarket. That makes sense, as Les Bleus are also the outright favorites to win the World Cup on both sites. They won the 2018 World Cup and finished runners-up in 2022, so they have an impeccable pedigree. France’s squad also boasts an embarrassment of attacking riches, including Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Desiré Doué, and Michael Olise. Group I matches will be played in New Jersey, Foxborough, Philadelphia, and Toronto.
However, France landed in a much tougher group than the other big teams. Les Bleus will face Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. Norway qualified for the tournament with a 100% winning record, including two victories over Italy, led by Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard and Man City striker Erling Haaland, and is priced at 21% on Kalshi and Polymarket. Senegal beat Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations final earlier this year, although it has since been stripped of the title. They’re both very strong teams, so they could mount a serious challenge for the top spot in Group I.
2026 World Cup Group J preview
Traders make Argentina the clear favorite to win Group J, priced at 75% on Kalshi and 76% on Polymarket. The reigning world champions lost their opening group stage game to Saudi Arabia at the last World Cup, but La Albiceleste ended up finishing top of their group, and they eventually lifted the trophy. Group J matches will be played in Kansas City, Santa Clara, and Arlington.
Lionel Messi was the star of the show in 2022, but he will turn 39 during this summer’s tournament, and his influence is waning. Younger teammates like Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez may need to pick up the slack, but Argentina should have enough quality to win this group. Austria has a 15% chance of finishing first according to Kalshi, with Algeria priced at 9% and Jordan at 1%. They’re decent teams, but Argentina looks superior in every department, so it should be pretty comfortable in Group J.
2026 World Cup Group K preview
Portugal will have one of the strongest squads at this summer’s World Cup. Cristiano Ronaldo steals the limelight, but the team’s real strength lies in midfield. PSG duo Vitinha and João Neves will line up alongside Man City captain Bernardo Silva and Man United playmaker Bruno Fernandes. The likes of Nuno Mendes and Pedro Neto are electric down the flanks, too, while Diogo Costa is an excellent goalkeeper. Group K matches will be played in Houston, Mexico City, Guadalajara, Miami, and Atlanta.
It’s easy to see why Portugal is favored to win Group K at 64% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket, but Colombia looks like an interesting underdog. The market has been moving their way, with Colombia now priced at 32% on Kalshi and 30% on Polymarket. The team was very competitive during the South American qualifying campaign, and Luis Díaz is an elite forward. DR Congo and Uzbekistan look vastly inferior to those teams, so it could be a straight fight between Portugal and Colombia for top spot. Portugal has the edge, but an injury to defensive lynchpin Ruben Dias could derail their chances.
2026 World Cup Group L preview
England is priced at 73% on Kalshi and 72% on Polymarket to win Group L. The Three Lions have finished top of their group at the last three major tournaments, so they should be full of confidence. They’re excellent in attack, led by free-scoring captain Harry Kane, and they have an exceptionally deep squad. Group L matches will be played in Arlington, Toronto, Foxborough, New Jersey, and Philadelphia.
Croatia is given a 22% chance on Kalshi and 20% on Polymarket, despite exceeding expectations at the last two World Cups. The Croats were runners-up in 2018, and they finished third in 2022. Some key players have retired since then, and they’re heavily reliant on 40-year-old midfielder Luka Modrić. Ghana has a terrific attack, featuring Antoine Semenyo and Mohammed Kudus, but the defense could be the team’s Achilles heel. Panama is the rank outsider in this group, so Croatia looks like the only team capable of stopping England.
2026 World Cup groups, ranked by competitiveness
We’ve ranked the 12 groups in order of competitiveness, using group winner market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. The tighter the spread between the favorite’s implied probability and the field, the higher the group ranks.
- Group D: This is the most competitive group, as the USA and Türkiye look evenly matched. Kalshi has the USA at 44% and Türkiye at 35%, but Polymarket narrows that gap to 40% vs 36%. The USMNT has home advantage, but Türkiye boasts elite players like Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz, while Paraguay and Australia are also both strong in defense.
- Group A: Mexico is the favorite at 53% on Kalshi, but Czechia and South Korea are both priced at 22%, making the race for second place as open as any in the tournament. South Africa also cruised through the African qualifying campaign.
- Group B: Switzerland leads at 53% on Kalshi and 54% on Polymarket, but Canada at 26-27% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 19-20% make this genuinely competitive. Qatar is the clear fourth wheel.
- Group F: The Netherlands leads at 57% on Kalshi, but Japan at 26-28% makes this far from settled. Sweden and Tunisia are both credible threats, too.
- Group K: Portugal leads at 64-66%, but Colombia has been climbing — now at 32% on Kalshi and 30% on Polymarket. Both teams should beat DR Congo and Uzbekistan, so their head-to-head could decide the top spot.
- Group I: France leads at 66-71%, but Norway at 21% and Senegal at 9-11% make this the toughest group for any of the outright favorites.
- Group E: Germany leads at 69-71%, but Ecuador at 20-22% and Ivory Coast at 11-12% mean the Germans can’t afford a repeat of their last two group stage exits.
- Group G: Belgium leads at 69% on both platforms. Egypt at 15-16% is the only credible challenger, though Iran’s geopolitical situation adds an element of uncertainty.
- Group L: England leads at 72-73%, but Croatia at 20-22% and Ghana at 7-8% mean the Three Lions will need to be sharp. The group looks more competitive than the odds suggest.
- Group J: Argentina leads at 75-76%, with Austria the only realistic challenger at 15-18%. Algeria and Jordan are distant outsiders.
- Group C: Brazil leads at 76-77%, but Morocco at 18-21% gives this group more intrigue than the headline number suggests. Scotland’s volume on Polymarket adds a wild card element.
- Group H: Spain leads at 78-80%, the heaviest favorite of any group. Uruguay at 16-18% is the only realistic challenger. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde look overmatched.
Groups A, B, and D all look wide open. Those groups feature the co-hosts, the USA, Mexico, and Canada, who were all placed in Pot 1 (the top seed bracket) for the group stage draw. Pot 1 featured the world’s top nine teams, plus the three co-hosts, so it’s easy to see why Groups A, B, and D are the most competitive. The other nine groups look far less competitive, as each group features an elite team like France, Spain, England, or Argentina. However, Group F is worth keeping an eye on, as Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia could make life difficult for the Netherlands.
World Cup group winner market moves
Group D has seen the greatest price volatility since the market opened at Kalshi after the group stage draw in December 2025. The USA opened as the 47% favorite, and it spiked to 56.7% a month later. That all changed when Türkiye qualified for the World Cup via the European playoffs. Türkiye briefly became the Group D favorite in early April, but the USMNT has now pulled clear on Kalshi at 44% vs 35%. Polymarket tells a tighter story, with the USA at 40% and Türkiye at 36%. The lead has been passed back and forth in recent weeks.
Group A has attracted the greatest volume ($288,217 on Polymarket, $51,284 on Kalshi). At Polymarket, Mexico opened as the 54% favorite in December 2025. El Tri had dipped to just 28% by April, with Czechia emerging as the 29% favorite. However, Mexico has now surged ahead at 51% on Polymarket and 53% on Kalshi, with Czechia and South Korea both sitting at 22-24% behind them.
Group C might well be the most interesting market. More than $222,000 in trading volume has flowed through Polymarket on this group, but just $32,345 went on Brazil and $32,356 on Morocco. Meanwhile, traders have bought contracts worth a combined $136,971 on Scotland to win Group C. That could be down to patriotic Scots backing their team, or traders could genuinely believe that Scotland (5% on Polymarket) has a serious chance of upsetting Brazil.
How the 2026 World Cup group stage works
The World Cup contenders have been divided into 12 groups. Each group features four teams of mixed ability. FIFA used a seeding process, which was designed to ensure that the world’s strongest teams were kept apart during the group stage. It means that there’s normally a heavy favorite in each group, such as Spain or Brazil.
However, it’s worth noting that the three co-hosts, Canada, Mexico, and the USA, were also placed in the top seed bracket. They wouldn’t normally be in that bracket, so their groups are the three most competitive groups at this tournament.
Here’s how the group stage works:
- Each team plays the other three teams in its group a single time. A team gets 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw (tie), and no points for a loss.
- At the end of the group stage, the teams are ranked in order of points earned. If two or more teams finish level on points, goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded) will be used to separate them. If they have an identical goal difference, the team that scored the most goals will be placed higher.
- In the unlikely event that they also scored an identical number of goals, FIFA will use their head-to-head record in the group stage to separate them. If they drew that game, the team that’s higher in the FIFA world rankings will come out on top.
- The top two teams in each group will automatically qualify for the knockout stage (the Round of 32).
- The eight best third-place teams (those with the most points, or the superior goal difference in a tiebreaker) will also qualify.
- There’s a clear incentive for a team to win its group, as it should theoretically lead to an easier Round of 32 game and a clearer path to the latter stages of the tournament.
In the past, the World Cup only featured 32 teams divided into eight groups, with the top two teams advancing to what was then the Round of 16. The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, and FIFA added an extra round, the new Round of 32, before the Round of 16 begins. This could lead to more mismatches in the group stage and in the new Round of 32, giving elite strikers more chances to bolster their goal tallies against weak opponents.
World Cup group prediction markets explained
Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket let you buy yes/no contracts on whether a certain team will win its World Cup group. They aren’t sportsbooks, so you aren’t placing wagers against the house. You’re trading contracts with fellow users, and the sites just take a hosting fee. For each team, you’ll see a “Yes” price and a “No” price, which will be between $0.00 and $0.99. The contracts settle at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Here’s an example:
- Let’s say you want to back the USA to win Group D. You select the “World Cup Group D Winner” market, and you see these options: “USA – Yes 44¢, No 58¢.”
- Tap the “Yes 44¢” button, and your selection will appear on the trading slip. You can then enter the amount you wish to spend.
- Let’s say you enter $100. The site will tell you that you’re buying 227 contracts at 44¢ each. The odds suggest a 44% chance of success. Each contract will settle at $1 if the USA wins the group, so your payout will be $227.
- If you’re happy, complete the trade. You can then hold onto your contracts until the group stage has concluded. If the USMNT wins Group D, the site will transfer $227 to your account balance.
- Alternatively, you can sell the contracts before the group stage ends. For example, let’s say the USA wins its opening game against Paraguay. At that point, “Yes” contracts might be trading at 55¢. If so, you could sell your 227 contracts for $124.85, which would net you a $24.85 profit. You could alternatively sell some contracts and leave the rest riding on the result.
Resolution criteria vary by platform but generally follow the same principle: the contract resolves in favor of whichever team finishes first in the group after all three group stage matches have been played. On Kalshi and Polymarket, group winner contracts settle based on the official FIFA standings at the conclusion of the group stage, including any tiebreakers applied by FIFA. If a match is abandoned or replayed, resolution follows the official FIFA result. Check the individual contract’s Rules tab on each platform for the specific terms before trading.
Prediction markets are regulated at a federal level by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Sites like Kalshi operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges, so they can offer event contracts across most of the country. Sports event contracts aren’t permitted in some states, but they’re available in the majority. They’re especially popular in states like California and Texas, which haven’t legalized online sports betting.
Where to trade or bet on World Cup groups
These are the top five sites to buy and sell yes/no contracts on the World Cup groups:
- Kalshi: This is the leading US prediction site, which offers a wide range of markets on the 2026 World Cup. You’ll often find inflated odds on teams like the USA and Mexico, so Kalshi could be a good option if you decide to fade them.
- Polymarket: A major rival to Kalshi, which has more of a global trader base. More volume is flowing through Polymarket than any other World Cup prediction market, so liquidity is strong, and it’s a good place to back the USA to win its group.
- DraftKings: The Boston-based sports betting giant launched DraftKings Predictions in December 2025, offering a large welcome bonus and fast payouts. World Cup group winner markets aren’t available yet, but they should appear soon.
- Fanatics: You’ll find a comprehensive soccer section at Fanatics Markets, with odds on the first round of group stage games. Group winner markets are likely to be published soon.
- Underdog: Soccer fans can claim a $50 welcome bonus at Underdog Predict using code DEFIRATE. The site covers the World Cup, along with various other tournaments, so you’ll be able to buy yes/no contracts on each group this summer.
You’ll find lots of extra World Cup markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, too. For example, Kalshi is offering yes/no contracts on whether each team will qualify for the knockout stage of the tournament. You can also back a team to reach a certain stage, such as the semifinals, or predict who will win the 2026 World Cup.
There are markets on individual awards like the Golden Boot winner, plus special props like “Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?” Prediction sites are offering a range of markets on each game as well, including the match winner, total goals, both teams to score, half-time result, and more.