Georgia Election Odds: Senate and Governor Predictions

Resolved Georgia Republican Senate primary

Mike Collins won the Republican nomination by defeating Derek Dooley 55.54% to 44.46% in the June 16 runoff. The board below is a completed primary result, not a current general-election forecast.

Georgia’s 2026 general-election matchups are now set after the May 19 primaries and June 16 runoffs. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff will face Republican Mike Collins for the U.S. Senate, while Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson will compete for the open governor’s seat.

Prediction markets have moved from nomination questions to the November races. As of August 14, DeFi Rate’s aggregated odds make Democrats the clear favorite in the Senate race at about 92%, while the Democratic Party is favored at about 62% in the governor market.

Georgia requires a majority to win statewide office. If no candidate clears 50% on November 3, the general-election race advances to a December 1 runoff.

These rules can keep Georgia prediction markets active beyond Election Day. The DeFi Rate trackers above aggregate current prices from the available operators.

Volume note: Read venue volumes separately. Kalshi reports $1-face-value contract volume, while Polymarket reports USD/USDC volume; they should not be combined into one dollar total.

Who is running in the general election?

The primary stage is complete. The two major statewide races now have the following matchups:

• U.S. Senate: Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff vs. Republican nominee Mike Collins. Collins won the June 16 runoff over Derek Dooley, 55.54% to 44.46%.
• Governor: Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Republican Rick Jackson. Bottoms won the May 19 Democratic primary outright with 56.23%; Jackson defeated Burt Jones 52.64% to 47.36% in the June 16 Republican runoff.

The completed nomination markets are historical results now. The active pricing focus is on which party or candidate will win in November.

Georgia general election markets

Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, and other operators now price the November matchups rather than the resolved primaries. The leading statewide markets as of August 14 are:

• Georgia Senate winner (party): Democrats are about 92% in DeFi Rate’s aggregated odds, with Ossoff facing Collins.
• Georgia governor winner (party): Democrats are about 62% in the aggregate, with Bottoms facing Jackson.
• Candidate winner markets: Venue coverage differs. Some operators list the party outcome, while Gemini lists Bottoms and Jackson directly.
• House election markets: Operators also offer district and party-control contracts for Georgia’s congressional races.

Markets available now

The main live Georgia markets now cover the Senate winner, governor winner, party control, and individual House races. The Republican Senate and governor nomination contracts have already resolved, so their final prices should be read as results rather than current forecasts.

Market availability varies by operator. Kalshi and Polymarket carry the main statewide party markets, while candidate-level coverage can differ across Gemini and other venues. The trackers at the top of this page are the ongoing source for current prices.

Related markets

• 2028 Presidential Election Odds — Georgia’s 2026 winners, especially in the governor’s race, could quickly enter the national spotlight and shift early presidential market momentum.
• 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds — A strong re-election from Ossoff would elevate his profile as a potential Democratic contender heading into 2028 (or make his endorsement more valuable)
• 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds — The Georgia governor winner could emerge as a viable Republican candidate, particularly if they consolidate support in a key swing state.
• US Presidential Election Odds — Georgia remains a pivotal battleground, and 2026 results will influence how markets price the state’s role in the next presidential election.
• 2026 US Primary Election Odds — Georgia’s crowded primaries and runoff structure make it one of the most dynamic states influencing broader primary market trends.

Which sites have Georgia election markets?

Prediction market contracts might appear confusing at first, but they’re actually quite simple. Find the market you want to buy a contract for first. We’ll use the Georgia Governor winner as an example. If you think the Democratic Party will win, you can buy a contract (or multiple) at the current price. After the election, every winning contract pays out $1. If you bought five contracts at $0.50 apiece, you’d get $5 for a $2.50 profit. There are many prediction platforms available, but we recommend three in particular:

• Kalshi: Tons of political markets and high-volume trading, making it great if you want to sell positions before the election. 
• Polymarket: Re-entering the US market after a three-year absence with solid support for elections. 
• PredictIt: A politics-focused prediction platform based in New Zealand and with a strong US presence, especially during election cycles. 

How these markets resolve

Every contract follows its own stated rules and named resolution source. The nomination markets concluded after the primary process; the live statewide markets now depend on the November general election and any required runoff.

• Republican Senate nominee: Mike Collins won the June 16 runoff; the nomination market is resolved.
• Republican governor nominee: Rick Jackson won the June 16 runoff; the nomination market is resolved.
• Democratic governor nominee: Keisha Lance Bottoms secured the nomination; the nomination market is resolved.
• Senate and governor winner markets: These remain open for the general election. If no candidate receives a majority on November 3, the affected race continues to the December 1 runoff under Georgia law.

Before trading, check the operator’s contract rules for the exact settlement trigger. Some contracts settle on an official call or certification, while others may remain open through a runoff or inauguration.

Latest news and updates

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Key dates

• May 19, 2026 — Georgia primary election (completed).
• June 16, 2026 — Primary runoff (completed).
• November 3, 2026 — General election.
• December 1, 2026 — General-election runoff, if no candidate receives a majority.

What are markets projecting now?

The nomination uncertainty has cleared. Current trading centers on the Ossoff–Collins Senate race and the Bottoms–Jackson governor race rather than the former primary fields.

As of August 14, DeFi Rate’s aggregated market data gives Democrats about a 92% probability of winning the Senate race and about a 62% probability of winning the governor’s race. Those figures are snapshots, not guarantees; prices can move as polling, fundraising, debates, and turnout expectations change before November.

What 2026 Georgia means for the 2028 US elections

Georgia has become a state to watch, especially since Trump was first elected in 2016. The state has waffled between Democratic and Republican leanings in recent years, so there are always tense election cycles in GA. 

Ossoff’s general-election race against Collins could strengthen his national profile if he wins another term. A victory in a closely watched battleground would keep him in the conversation around the Democratic Party’s future leadership.

The gubernatorial race proves interesting thanks to the open seat vacated by outgoing Governor Brian Kemp. He didn’t run for Senate, but he remains in the picture for a possible 2028 Senate run. 

The eventual winner of GA’s Governor position is automatically a possible 2028 Presidential candidate, particularly if they rally their party in a way that garners national attention. As we approach this highly competitive election cycle, study up on 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds, 2028 Republican Nominee Odds, and US Presidential Election odds.