Georgia Election Odds: Senate and Governor Predictions

The Georgia 2026 election cycle features a bevy of high-profile races and uncertain outcomes. The state’s electoral votes went to Trump in 2024, signalling a competitive battleground for 2026 candidates on both sides of the aisle. 

Two races in particular will be ones to watch. An open-seat Governor election is imminent, with Brian Kemp’s term coming to an end. The Senate race primary features unopposed incumbent Jon Ossoff defending against a trio of GOP contenders. 

Georgia’s primary elections will paint a clearer picture for the November elections. The state runs partisan primaries with a majority (50%+) required. If no candidate gets a majority, runoff elections occur on June 16 (primaries) and December 1 (general election). 

All of these ingredients make for a flavorful state election stew, with Georgia prediction markets being heavily impacted by the state’s unique election structure. Our DeFi rate tracker shows the latest percentages according to key prediction market operators. 

Who is most likely to advance?

The two biggest Georgia races are for the Senate and the open Governor’s seat. Let’s look at the latest contenders according to Kalshi and Polymarket.

Who will win the Senate primaries?

• Jon Ossoff (D) – Ossoff is running unopposed in the Georgia Senate Democratic primary. As such, there aren’t any odds on him winning the primary. The current Polymarket odds for the Democratic Party (and thus, Ossoff) to win the general election are 82%. Ossoff is a top contender for many reasons. As of the filing deadline, he had 25.5M cash and leads all Republicans in head-to-head Emerson February 2026 polls. His fundraising advantage is greater than the money on hand for the GOP candidates combined, according to some reports. 
• Mike Collins (R) – 84% to win the Republican Senate primary. U.S. Representative (GA-10). Collins is a heavy favorite to take the Republican nomination for this Senate race. He trails Ossoff by ~5 points according to the Emerson general election head-to-head polls. 
• Earl “Buddy” Carter (R) – 4% to win the Republican Senate primary. U.S Representative. Carter trails Ossoff 47-44 in general election polling, but his fundraising falls behind Collins and Dooley by a wide margin. 
• Derek Dooley (R) – 10% to win the Republican Senate primary. Dooley is a former college football coach with no experience in an elected position. Even so, he earned the endorsement of lame-duck Governor Brian Kemp. He trails Ossoff by the widest margin of any Republican candidate in general election polling. 

Who will win the Governor primary election?

• Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) – 81% to win the Democratic primary. Bottoms is the former Mayor of Atlanta. She’s regarded as the top Democratic contender, though 40% of voters are undecided as of February 2026, which could lead to a late-cycle mixup. 
• Rick Jackson (R) – 51% to win the Republican primary. Jackson is a healthcare executive with a heavy TV ad spend. He emerged recently, moving from underdog to prediction market contender. 
• Burt Jones (R) – 33% to win the Republican primary. Jone is the current Lt. Governor. He has a fundraising advantage due to a 2021 Georgia law that allows unlimited fundraising. Opponent Chris Carr filed a lawsuit over this in August 2025. 
• Brad Raffensperger (R) – 15% chance to win the Republican primary. Raffensperger is GA’s Secretary of State, and he’s known for refusing Trump’s pressure to alter the 2020 vote count. Appeals to moderate Republicans, but shares that space with Chris Carr. 
• Chris Carr (R) – 2% to win the Republican primary. Carr is Georgia’s Attorney General and a Plaintiff in the lawsuit against Jones’ fundraising advantage. Splits the moderate-Republican lane with Raffensperger.

Longshots to win

• Geoff Duncan (D) – 10% to win the Democratic primary. Former Lt. Governor and Republican-turned-Democrat Geoff Duncan is running as a crossover candidate who can beat a Republican hopeful. 
• Jason Esteves (D) –  9% to win the Democratic primary. Esteves is an attorney and former member of the Georgia State Senate. 
• Mike Thurmond (D) – 1% to win the Democratic primary. Thurmond is a former DeKalb County CEO and former Georgia Labor Commissioner. Emerson polls have him at 11%, but prediction markets tell a different story. 

Georgia general election markets

Kalshi and Polymarket have plenty of betting markets on the Georgia general election. Here are some of the most popular options beyond the headlining Senate and Governor races. 

• Georgia Senate winner? (party) – Democratic party 80%. Ossoff’s unopposed primary and significant fundraising advantage influence this heavily favored result. 
• Georgia Governor winner? (party) – Democratic party 55%. Bottoms is favored in the primary, but there are other contenders. The Republican field has a lot of money behind it. 
• GA-14 special election winner? – Clayton Fuller 96%. This election will fill the vacancy left by Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation. Fuller’s heavy advantages speak to the deep Republican lean in the district. 
• House election winners (party) – Polymarket has contracts available for all House of Representatives election winners, with the Democratic Party or Republican Party as the possible outcomes.

Prop markets available

Georgia doesn’t have a party composition market or first-place market, as you might see for other state elections (such as California). Instead, Georgia’s main prop markets are primary winner contracts for each race. 

Who wins the Senate Republican primary?

This market measures which Republican candidate will secure the Republican party’s nomination and go on to challenge Jon Ossoff in the general election. Mike Collins, Earl “Buddy” Carter, and Derek Dooley are battling for a lead in this race, each pulling from different sectors of the GOP for support. Collins is learning by a fair margin right now, but there are wrenches in those gears. Dooley earned the endorsement of Brian Kemp, for example. Georgia’s requirement of a majority vote could lead to a runoff even if there’s a decisive lead after the primary polls close. 

Available on: Polymarket and Kalshi

Who wins the Governor Republican primary?

Contracts in this market will settle as winners based on who earns the Republican nomination for governor, including runoffs. It’s a crowded and highly competitive field as Brian Kemp exits his post due to term limits. Rick Jackson, Burt Jones, Brad Raffensperger, and Chris Carr lead the pack. This split makes a runoff likely. Jones has a distinct fundraising advantage that could prove decisive, but there are a few well-known officials in the running, plus Jackson as a political outsider. 

Available on: Polymarket and Kalshi

Who wins the Governor Democratic primary?

The Governor Democratic primary market will settle once a candidate earns the nomination in this hotly contested race. Keisha Lance Bottoms leads in current prediction markets thanks to name recognition as the former Atlanta Mayor and a surge of support from Black voters. However, an undecided 40% among the voting body could change things swiftly. Geoff Duncan and Jason Esteves trail for now. 

Available on: Polymarket and Kalshi

Related markets

• 2028 Presidential Election Odds — Georgia’s 2026 winners, especially in the governor’s race, could quickly enter the national spotlight and shift early presidential market momentum.
• 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds — A strong re-election from Ossoff would elevate his profile as a potential Democratic contender heading into 2028 (or make his endorsement more valuable)
• 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds — The Georgia governor winner could emerge as a viable Republican candidate, particularly if they consolidate support in a key swing state.
• US Presidential Election Odds — Georgia remains a pivotal battleground, and 2026 results will influence how markets price the state’s role in the next presidential election.
• 2026 US Primary Election Odds — Georgia’s crowded primaries and runoff structure make it one of the most dynamic states influencing broader primary market trends.

Which sites have Georgia election markets?

Prediction market contracts might appear confusing at first, but they’re actually quite simple. Find the market you want to buy a contract for first. We’ll use the Georgia Governor winner as an example. If you think the Democratic Party will win, you can buy a contract (or multiple) at the current price. After the election, every winning contract pays out $1. If you bought five contracts at $0.50 apiece, you’d get $5 for a $2.50 profit. There are many prediction platforms available, but we recommend three in particular:

• Kalshi: Tons of political markets and high-volume trading, making it great if you want to sell positions before the election. 
• Polymarket: Re-entering the US market after a three-year absence with solid support for elections. 
• PredictIt: A politics-focused prediction platform based in New Zealand and with a strong US presence, especially during election cycles. 

How these markets resolve

Every prediction market has a specific resolution built into its terms. You can read them in detail on Kalshi, Polymarket, or other sites. Here’s how and when the main markets settle for high-profile GA races. 

• Georgia Republican Governor Nominee: May 19 (if majority winner emerges), June 16 (if runoff happens)
• Georgia Democratic Governor Nominee: May 19 (if majority winner emerges), June 16 (if runoff happens)
• Georgia Senate winner (party): 2027 (after candidate is sworn in)
• Georgia Governor Winner (party): After the state government verifies the winner has been inaugurated
• Georgia Republican Senate Nominee: May 19 (if majority winner emerges), June 16 (if runoff happens)

Both Kalshi and Polymarket include statutes allowing for runoffs in their terms. Polymarket also states it will rely on results from the Georgia Democratic or Republican Parties, but an “overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.”

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Key dates

• March 6, 2026 — Filing deadline (both governor and Senate races).
• May 19, 2026 — Primary election day. Markets resolve here only if a candidate clears 50%; otherwise, they hold to June 16.
• June 16, 2026 — Primary runoff, if applicable.
• November 3, 2026 — General election. This page will undergo a major rewrite following the results.
• December 1, 2026 — General election runoff, if applicable.

What are the polls projecting?

Georgia’s 2026 cycle has produced a small handful of public polls, but the early numbers paint a good picture of the primaries starting in May. Emerson College’s late February polling and the JMC Analytics poll of likely Republican primary voters can tell us a lot. 

Emerson polled 1,000 likely voters in head-to-head general election match-ups between Jon Ossoff and the top three Republican Senate candidates. Ossoff polled 47-44 over Buddy Carter, 48-43 over Mike Collins, and 49-41 over Derek Dooley. Carter trails Collins significantly in prediction markets, however. 

Polls of the Governor Democratic party put Keisha Lance Bottoms at 35%, a significant lead over Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan (13%). Prediction markets heavily favor Bottoms, but a huge chunk of undecided voters puts that market into the realm of mystery for now. 

Meanwhile, the Governor Republican primary is a fluid field right now. Healthcare executive Rick Javksona nd lr. Governor Burt Jones hover around 20% each according to Emerson. JMC Analytics puts Jackops at 37% and Jones at 22%. Prediction markets agree with that order, though the odds for each are slightly higher than the polls suggest. 

What 2026 Georgia means for the 2028 US elections

Georgia has become a state to watch, especially since Trump was first elected in 2016. The state has waffled between Democratic and Republican leanings in recent years, so there are always tense election cycles in GA. 

Ossoff’s unopposed Democratic run is a strong story and could strengthen his national profile. He could test the waters for a 2028 run or try to team up with another democratic 2028 frontrunner via endorsement or potential cabinet postings. Either way, look for Ossoff to become a known quantity in the Democratic Party. 

The gubernatorial race proves interesting thanks to the open seat vacated by outgoing Governor Brian Kemp. He didn’t run for Senate, but he remains in the picture for a possible 2028 Senate run. 

The eventual winner of GA’s Governor position is automatically a possible 2028 Presidential candidate, particularly if they rally their party in a way that garners national attention. As we approach this highly competitive election cycle, study up on 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds, 2028 Republican Nominee Odds, and US Presidential Election odds.