2026 Texas Primary Runoff Odds & Predictions

Texas election prediction markets

Texas kicked off the 2026 midterm cycle on March 3 with primaries that produced one clean result and one fight that’s still ongoing. James Talarico secured the Democratic Senate nomination outright, avoiding a runoff, while Cornyn and Paxton forced a runoff after both fell short of the 50% threshold. The Senate race alone generated over $1 million in Kalshi volume on primary day. With record campaign spending north of $122 million, this is the most expensive and watched Senate primary, and the runoff is only going to push that number higher.

The prediction market picture heading into May is interesting. Paxton holds a significant lead in the runoff market, but Talarico could be the story in the general election. Democratic turnout surged past Republicans by over 100,000 votes on March 3, and recent polling has him in a dead heat against either Republican opponent. Markets have been moving in his direction since primary night. For live odds on the runoff, the governor race, and the full slate of November markets, check our live odds feeds above. The feeds are updated every 30 minutes and aggregates Polymarket and Kalshi.

Who is most likely to advance?

The Senate seat (and its associated runoff) is hotly contested. The governor race will also make headlines as Abbott seeks a third term. Let’s dive into the odds for each race from Kalshi. 

Who will win the Senate?

John Cornyn (R) — 32% to win the runoff. Despite being a four-term incumbent, John Cornyn trails in Kalshi’s odds. He represents the core Republican establishment while his opponent Ken Paxton is firmly lodged in the Trump movement. Cornyn’s campaign includes a case against Paxton due to the latter’s 2023 impeachment and legal struggles. 

Ken Paxton (R) — 66% to win the runoff. The Texas Attorney General was impeached by the Republican-majority Texas House in 2023 but acquitted by the Senate. He’s a Trump-movement candidate, and he has attacked Cornyn over various positions, including the bipartisan Uvalde gun safety bill. Notably, Trump has not endorsed either candidate. An endorsement for either could drastically change the odds. 

James Talarico (D) — 42% to win the general election. Talarico’s odds could benefit from Republican party infighting and a tense runoff between two GOP factions. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988; could 2026 be the year? 

Who will win Governor?

Greg Abbott (R) — 84% to win the general election. Abbott is a third-term incumbent seeking a  fourth run at the post. Only one Texas governor has achieved a third term—Rick Perry in 2002, 2006, and 2010, so Abbott has already made history. He won the Republican primary on March 3 and appears poised to lock in a third term in general election polling and prediction market odds. 

Gina Hinojosa (D) — 18% to win the general election. Hinojosa is a state representative facing an uphill battle for the Texas governorship. A Democrat has not held the seat since 1995. 

Longshots to win

Wesley Hunt (R) — The Houston Congressman failed to advance to the Republican runoff. His endorsement (as yet unconfirmed) could sway the vote. 

Jasmine Crockett (D) — Crockett secured Kamala Harris’s endorsement in the primary, but ultimately lost to Talarico on March 3. 

Texas general election markets

Though the markets above are the ones making headlines, prediction sites have other options available for trading. 

• Texas Senate winner? (Party): Republican Party, 55%. The infighting and runoff in the Republican party make this market a close one for now.  
• Texas Governor winner? (Party): Republican Party, 84%. This is essentially the same as whether Abbott or Hinojosa will win, but categorized by party. Abbott is poised to take a third term in most major polls. 
• Texas Republican Senate runoff: who endorses who?—Donald Trump endorses nobody, 50%. The second result right now is a Trump endorsement of Ken Paxton. Trump’s endorsement or lack thereof could heavily impact the result. 
• Texas Senate: Exact Outcome: Paxton defeats Talarico, 38%. This market has four possible outcomes, all of which hinge on who wins the Republican primary. 

Texas Primaries: District Races

Primary runoffs have pricing available at prediction markets as well. Here are a handful of available markets. Many others are also available on Kalshi and other prediction sites. 

• TX-35 Republican nominee: Carlos De La Cruz, 77%. De La Cruz brings 20 years of Air Force experience to the race, campaigning as ‘Trump’s wingman.” Trump has endorsed him. 
• TX-38 Republican nominee: Jon Bonck, 95%. Bonck is a mortgage banker and has endorsements from Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. 
• TX-19 Republican nominee: Tom Sell, 88%. Sell led the first round of votes with about 40%. His momentum and local ties are expected by many to carry him to a win.  
• TX-16 Republican nominee: Adam Bauman, 73%. Few polls exist for this race, but Bauman has strong fundraising and name recognition. 
• TX-09 Republican nominee: Alexandra del Moral Mealer, 85%. Mealer is an investment banker and Army veteran. Her fundraising advantage puts her in a comfortable lead, even while opponent Briscoe Cain has Governor Greg Abbott’s endorsement. 

Texas prop markets available

General election markets aren’t the only thing available for trading at sites like Kalshi, Polymarket, or others. The Senate runoff is by far the most active market in the cycle right now, but others have plenty of traction. 

Who wins the Senate Republican runoff?

As we’ve covered, this runoff has a ton of narrative and cultural force behind it. The Cornyn vs. Paxton battle pits a more traditional establishment incumbent against a Trump-movement challenger. The current prices can and will change if and when Trump endorses one of the candidates, so look for fluctuations if he decides to sign off on Cornyn or Paxton. 

Available on: Kalshi, Polymarket

Who wins the Senate general election?

This market measures the final winner of the Senate general election. Right now, markets on Kalshi and Polymarket list James Talarico (who locked in the nomination in the primary) and “Republican Party” as the results. This is due to the Republican runoff between Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn. 

Available on: Kalshi, Polymarket

Who wins the governor general election?

This market measures the final winner of the Governorship. Greg Abbott is heavily favored on prediction sites. One possible wrench in the gears could be high Democratic turnout for the Senate race. 

Available on: Kalshi, Polymarket

Related election markets

• 2028 Presidential Election Odds: Texas looms large with its massive pool of electoral votes. 
• 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds: Texas is far from a swing state, but any democratic winner in the state could make a shift in certain regions come the general election. 
• 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds: Texas GOP power brokers and heavy donors can heavily influence who snags the nomination for Republicans. 
• US Presidential Election Odds: Texas is a red state, but it’s still a key battleground. Any early signs of competitive races could be telling for the presidential race. 
• 2026 US Primary Election Odds: Texas can serve as a good momentum checkpoint with its late-mMay primaries. 
• Georgia 2026 Election Odds: Georgia has shifted between red and blue in recent cycles, so it’s a helpful comparison market to Texas. 

Where to bet on Texas election markets

Texas election markets are available on various prediction market sites like Kalshi and PredictIt. They may feel confusing at first, but they’re simple once you understand a few key things. 

First, you are trading on a specific outcome with a “Yes” or “No” result attached. In some cases, you choose your Yes or No from a variety of options. For example, this is the market for Texas Republican Senate nominee on Kalshi:

• Ken Paxton: $0.64 Yes, $0.37 No
• John Cornyn: $0.33 Yes, $0.68 No

Those prices reflect probabilities according to the market. A price of $0.64 on Paxton implies a 64% perceived chance of Paxton winning. You can buy contracts at the price associated with your predicted outcome. For example, you could buy five Paxton Yes contracts at $0.64 apiece, totalling $3.20 (plus fees, which vary). If Paxton goes on to earn the nomination, you’d get $1 per correct contract for $5, profiting $1.80. However, you also have the option to sell positions before the outcome resolves. If Paxton’s price goes up before the primary, you can sell at that price and still make a small profit. 

Is it legal to bet on elections from Texas?

Yes, you can legally trade on election markets from Texas. Any CFTC-Regulated platform will work. Kalshi is the top platform for such trading, and it’s available throughout Texas. We have a full Texas prediction markets with more details on where to trade Texas elections in the Lone Star State. 

How these markets resolve

Every prediction market has a specific resolution trigger that will close the market and pay out winning contracts accordingly. Here’s when and how the key Texas markets will settle. 

• Texas Republican Senate Nominee: May 26 (runoff)
• Texas Democratic Senate Nominee: Already resolved; Talarico won
• Texas Senate Matchup: Resolves once both party nominees are confirmed (following Republican runoff)
• Texas Senate Winner (party): Resolves November 2026 after the race ends and is called or certified

Kalshi and Polymarket include language to account for runoffs where necessary. They also include notes on sources that can end the market. In most cases, they rely on state government results. For general election results, Klashi and Polymarket wait for a certified winner or a winner essentially confirmed by certain reliable press sources. 

Key dates

• March 3, 2026—Primary day. Talarico won the Democratic Senate primary. Cornyn and Paxton went to a runoff, while Abbott won the Republican nomination for Governor. 
• May 26, 2026—Republican Senate runoff, pitting John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton. The winner will become the Republican Senate nominee. Expect the result to affect general election pricing immediately. 
• November 3, 2026: General election day. Big markets will settle and likely change as results slowly emerge. 
• December 1, 2026—A general election runoff will occur on this date, if one is necessary. 

What are the polls projecting?

Recent polling paints a clearer picture than some prediction markets. In the Republican runoff, most have Paxton in a single-digit lead over Cornyn, hovering around 46-41. A Trump endorsement for Cornyn may not move the needle more than a point (ish).

As for the general election, polls point to a near toss-up. A March Public Policy Polling result put Talarico ahead of Cornyn 44-3 and Paxton 47-45. All signs point to a tight race in the Texas Senate election

What 2026 Texas means for the 2028 US elections

The result of Texas’s 2026 Senate race will undoubtedly reverberate through November and beyond. The bitter intraparty fight between Cornyn and Paxton will extend through May’s primary. Meanwhile, James Talarico can spend that time campaigning and fundraising. This drawn out race can siphon donor cash and divide the base in a way that can echo throughout the country in 2028. 

A Talarico win would signal a marked shift in Texas’ voting history, placing a Democrat in a historically red Senate seat. If Paxton emerges victorious, he could signal a hard-right takeover of the Texas GOP and further galvanize Trump-adjacent candidates leading up to 2028. The biggest upheaval would be a Talarico victory. Such a scenario would shake up 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds and 2028 Republican Nominee Odds.