California Governor Odds 2026: Kalshi &amp; Polymarket

Vol $134.1K 0–0.1¢

Ethan Agarwal

Vol $139 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.1%

Vol $139 0–0.1¢

Rob Bonta

Vol $159 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.1%

Vol $159 0–0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
XB Xavier Becerra	84.7% ↑ +20.3%	0.4%	$1.4M	Kalshi 84.5% 84–85¢ Vol $754.4K	Polymarket 84.9% 84.7–85¢ Vol $680.3K
SH Steve Hilton	9.3% ↓ -0.2%	0.9%	$1.6M	Kalshi 9.7% 9.4–10¢ Vol $754.2K	Polymarket 8.9% 8.8–8.9¢ Vol $805.2K
TS Tom Steyer	5.3% ↓ -18.8%	1.0%	$2.1M	Kalshi 5.8% 5.1–6.4¢ Vol $1.2M	Polymarket 4.8% 4.6–4.9¢ Vol $958.2K
CB Chad Bianco	0.3% ↓ -1.5%	0.1%	$1.2M	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $517.8K	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $643.9K
AP Alex Padilla	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$442.5K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $101	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $442.4K
AV Antonio Villaraigosa	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$722.0K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $20.8K	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $701.2K
BY Bette Yee	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$864.9K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $864.9K
BW Butch Ware	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$469.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $255	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $469.2K
DM Daniel Mercuri	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$489.3K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $70	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $489.2K
EK Eleni Kounalakis	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$488.7K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $150	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $488.6K
ES Eric Swalwell	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$620.9K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $100	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $620.8K
KH Kamala Harris	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$855.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $143.1K	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $712.3K
KP Katie Porter	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$888.9K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $321.4K	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $567.5K
KL Kyle Langford	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$610.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $71	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $610.3K
LZ Leo Zacky	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$390.1K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $72	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $390.1K
MY Michael Younger	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$676.8K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $676.8K
NS Nicole Shanahan	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$944.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $140	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $944.2K
RC Rick Caruso	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$716.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $148	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $716.3K
SC Stephen Cloobeck	0.2% — +0.0%	0.1%	$579.0K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $82	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $579.0K
TA Toni Atkins	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$743.3K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $44	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $743.3K
TT Tony Thurmond	0.2% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$545.2K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $96	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $545.1K
MM Matt Mahan	0.1% — +0.0%	0.1%	$630.6K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $196.5K	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $434.1K
CA Ché Ahn	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$134.1K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $134.1K	Polymarket — —
EA Ethan Agarwal	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$139	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $139	Polymarket — —
RB Rob Bonta	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$159	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $159	Polymarket — —

Odds on which party will advance on June 2 primary

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

1DA

1 Democrat and 1 Republican

Vol $67.4K Spread 1.0%

Agg 87.4%

↑ +6.4%

K 87.5%

P 86.5%

2 Democrats

Vol $57.8K Spread 1.0%

Agg 13.2%

↓ -1.8%

P 14.0%

K 13.0%

2 Republicans

Vol $6.6K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

↓ -6.9%

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket
1DA 1 Democrat and 1 Republican	87.4% ↑ +6.4%	1.0%	$67.4K	Kalshi 87.5% 87–88¢ Vol $58.1K	Polymarket 86.5% 85–88¢ Vol $9.3K
2D 2 Democrats	13.2% ↓ -1.8%	1.0%	$57.8K	Kalshi 13.0% 12–14¢ Vol $43.6K	Polymarket 14.0% 13–15¢ Vol $14.3K
2R 2 Republicans	0.0% ↓ -6.9%	0.0%	$6.6K	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $6.6K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0

Gavin Newsom is out in January 2027, and what comes next is a fight over a $4 trillion GDP, a state budget deficit that’s already forcing cuts to education and healthcare, and the single biggest check on federal policy in the country. This is the only governor’s race with an open seat, a nonpartisan primary that could send two candidates from the same party to the general election, and a crowded Democratic field competing against a Republican surge fueled by cost-of-living concerns.

Every one of those factors will feed into uncertainty and will be a driving force behind the volume in this primary election market.

Who is favored to win the California governorship

Tom Steyer (D) — 63.6% to advance, 50.7% to win the general election. Billionaire climate activist and investor who ran for president in the 2020 cycle, spending more than $300 million before dropping out before Super Tuesday. Never held elected office. Polling at 10–11% despite spending more than $27 million on television advertising before the Swalwell collapse redistributed Democratic market probability in April. Now the clear market leader. The polling hasn’t caught up. It may not need to.

Katie Porter (D) — 21.6% to advance, 14.4% to win the general election. Former US Representative from Orange County who left Congress in January 2025 after losing the Senate primary to Adam Schiff. Known nationally for her whiteboard questioning of executives during congressional hearings. Polling at 8–13% across recent surveys. Her advance odds trail Steyer significantly, but she remains the second-ranked Democrat in the field and a meaningful factor in whether the top two ends up D-R or D-D.

Matt Mahan (D) — 21.4% to advance, 13.6% to win the general election. San Jose Mayor who entered the race late in January. Backed by significant tech money and draws the highest share of voters who trust neither major party. Polling at 3–4% — the widest gap between polling and market pricing of any candidate in the field. The market is pricing something the polls haven’t caught yet, or it’s wrong.

What happened to Eric Swalwell?

Eric Swalwell entered the race in late November 2025. Our tracker shows he spent months as the Democratic market leader, reaching roughly 50% on Kalshi and Polymarket. In April 2026, the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported allegations of sexual misconduct from multiple women, including a former staffer who alleged assault. Within 24 hours, he lost all 21 of his endorsements from Democratic colleagues in Congress. Adam Schiff withdrew his endorsement. Nancy Pelosi told him to drop out. The Manhattan DA confirmed it is investigating one of the allegations. Swalwell denies the accusations, but did drop out of the race on April 12.

Eric California race prediction market decline

California general election markets

The California governor’s race gets most of the attention, but Kalshi’s California General election slate runs deeper than a single headline contest. Here’s a look at what else is trading.

CA-22 primary advance — Randy Villegas at 61%, a competitive Central Valley district that typically draws attention as the election approaches.
California Governor winner? (Party) — Democrats are at 84%, essentially a lock given the state’s political makeup, though the companion Governor winner? (Person) market is more interesting. Eric Swalwell currently leads at 59%, down 2 points, reflecting a competitive Democratic primary field rather than general election uncertainty.
California Lieutenant Governor — Fiona Ma at 56%, notably tighter than the top of the ticket and one of the closer calls on the board.
CA-08 (Party) — Democrats at 95%, a safe-seat market with limited movement potential.
CA-13 (Party) — Democrats at 90%, similarly stable.
CA-17 winner? — Ro Khanna at 86%, consistent with his incumbency advantage.

Prop markets available

The general election winner market isn’t the only California political market to bet on. Kalshi has three additional governor markets tied to the June 2 primary, each measuring a different question, similar to a prop bet:

Top two to advance?

The primary advance market asks which candidates will finish in the top two on June 2. Each candidate has their own Yes/No contract — Hilton at 50%, Bianco at 42%. This is the market to watch right now because it directly prices who makes the November ballot. With 15 individual candidates to bet on, it’s also the most liquid primary market. Note that probabilities across candidates can sum to more than 100% because the question is “Will X finish in the top two?” — multiple candidates can independently be priced above 50%.

Who will finish in the top two in the California governor primary on June 2, 2026?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Xavier Becerra

Vol $22.1K Spread 0.0%

Agg 100.0%

↑ +92.0%

K 100.0%

P 100.0%

Steve Hilton

Vol $325.9K Spread 2.5%

Agg 87.1%

↑ +5.5%

P 89.0%

K 86.5%

Tom Steyer

Vol $269.4K Spread 3.0%

Agg 12.1%

↓ -51.5%

K 13.5%

P 10.5%

Chad Bianco

Vol $87.5K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -11.3%

K 0.6%

P 0.2%

Zoltan Istvan

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.4%

↓ -1.2%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $0 0.9¢

Sophia Brink

Vol $205 Spread —

Agg 0.4%

↓ -5.4%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $205 0.7¢

Butch Ware

Vol $1.6K Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -1.5%

P 0.3%

Vol $1.6K 0.6¢

Ché Ahn

Vol $699 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -2.3%

P 0.3%

Vol $699 0.6¢

Ethan Agarwal

Vol $28 Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -2.2%

P 0.3%

K 0.1%

Ryan Tillman

Vol $49 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -2.7%

P 0.3%

Vol $49 0.6¢

Daniel Mercuri

Vol $45 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -2.8%

P 0.3%

Vol $45 0.5¢

Kyle Langford

Vol $15 Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -1.7%

P 0.3%

Vol $15 0.5¢

Ramsey Robinson

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -1.9%

P 0.3%

Vol $1.5K 0.5¢

Thunder Parley

Vol $1.2K Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -1.7%

P 0.3%

Vol $1.2K 0.5¢

Brandon Jones

Vol $2.4K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -2.2%

P 0.2%

Vol $2.4K 0.4¢

Derek Grasty

Vol $3.4K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -7.2%

P 0.2%

Vol $3.4K 0.4¢

Carolina Buhler

Vol $42 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -1.7%

P 0.2%

Vol $42 0.3¢

David Serpa

Vol $134 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -1.8%

P 0.2%

Vol $134 0.3¢

Jimmy Parker

Vol $369 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -3.0%

P 0.2%

Vol $369 0.3¢

Leonard Jackson

Vol $74 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -1.6%

P 0.2%

Vol $74 0.3¢

Matt Mahan

Vol $4.7K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -21.2%

K 0.2%

P 0.2%

Raji Rab

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -2.0%

P 0.2%

Vol $1.4K 0.3¢

Sharifah Hardie

Vol $1.9K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -3.9%

P 0.2%

Vol $1.9K 0.3¢

Tony Thurmond

Vol $1.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -1.7%

P 0.2%

K 0.1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

Vol $1.0K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -3.4%

K 0.1%

Vol $1.0K 0–0.2¢

David Thelen

Vol $44 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -4.9%

P 0.1%

Vol $44 0.2¢

Dylan Colbert

Vol $2.5K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -3.0%

P 0.1%

Vol $2.5K 0.2¢

Elaine Culotti

Vol $565 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -24.9%

P 0.1%

Vol $565 0.2¢

Ian Calderon

Vol $2.4K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -2.6%

P 0.1%

Vol $2.4K 0.2¢

Leo Zacky

Vol $2.4K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -2.1%

P 0.1%

Vol $2.4K 0.2¢

Nicki Minaj

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -3.0%

P 0.1%

Vol $0 0.2¢

Rob Bonta

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.2¢

Betty Yee

Vol $213 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -3.9%

K 0.1%

P 0.1%

Eleni Kounalakis

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

Eric Swalwell

Vol $32.6K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -2.3%

K 0.1%

P 0.1%

Javen Allen

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -10.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

Katie Porter

Vol $0 Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -21.6%

P 0.3%

K 0.1%

Rick Caruso

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.1%