2026 Primary Election Odds 2026 California Governor Odds: Becerra vs. Hilton

California Governor Odds 2026: Becerra vs. Hilton

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California's June 2 top-two primary is certified: Democrat Xavier Becerra finished first with 28.0% of the vote and Republican Steve Hilton finished second with 24.6%. They advance to the November 3 general election. Xavier Becerra now leads the winner market at 95.9%, ahead of Steve Hilton at 4.1%. DeFi Rate aggregates current pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US and Gemini Predictions; venue-level activity is shown separately because the platforms report volume on different bases.

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% American Decimal Fractional

Largest Spread

1.90%

Steve Hilton

Current Favorite

95.9%

Xavier Becerra ↑ +0.7%

30D Volume (Share)

—

K: — P: — U: —

Momentum Leader

↑ +0.7%

Xavier Becerra 7D change

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Risk Disclaimer

CA Governor odds: Xavier Becerra is the current favorite to win over Steve Hilton

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Aggregate Spread Volume A–Z

Percentage (%) American (+/-) Decimal (1.00) Fractional (1/1)

XB

Xavier Becerra

Vol — Spread 0.9%

Agg 95.9%

↑ +0.7%

K 95.9%

P 95.9%

U 95.0%

Kalshi 95.9%

Vol $277.8K 95.8–96¢

Trade Now

Polymarket 95.9%

Vol $117.4K 95.8–96¢

Trade Now

Polymarket US 95.0%

94–95¢

Trade Now

SH

Steve Hilton

Vol — Spread 1.9%

Agg 4.1%

↓ -0.1%

U 6.0%

K 4.2%

P 4.1%

Polymarket US 6.0%

5–6¢

Trade Now

Kalshi 4.2%

Vol $448.1K 3.9–4.4¢

Trade Now

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $128.2K 4–4.2¢

Trade Now

AP

Alex Padilla

Vol $3.2K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.2K 0.1¢

Trade Now

AV

Antonio Villaraigosa

Vol $4.0K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $4.0K 0.1¢

Trade Now

BY

Bette Yee

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Trade Now

BW

Butch Ware

Vol $1.0K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.0K 0.1¢

Trade Now

CB

Chad Bianco

Vol $7.4K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $7.4K 0.1¢

Trade Now

DM

Daniel Mercuri

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $12 0.1¢

Trade Now

EK

Eleni Kounalakis

Vol $1 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1 0.1¢

Trade Now

ES

Eric Swalwell

Vol $9 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $9 0.1¢

Trade Now

KH

Kamala Harris

Vol $201 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $201 0.1¢

Trade Now

KP

Katie Porter

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.1K 0.1¢

Trade Now

KL

Kyle Langford

Vol $6 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6 0.1¢

Trade Now

LZ

Leo Zacky

Vol $6 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6 0.1¢

Trade Now

MM

Matt Mahan

Vol $11.0K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $11.0K 0.1¢

Trade Now

MY

Michael Younger

Vol $18 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $18 0.1¢

Trade Now

NS

Nicole Shanahan

Vol $18 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $18 0.1¢

Trade Now

RC

Rick Caruso

Vol $3.0K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.0K 0.1¢

Trade Now

SC

Stephen Cloobeck

Vol $1.0K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $1.0K 0.1¢

Trade Now

TS

Tom Steyer

Vol $21.6K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $21.6K 0.1¢

Trade Now

TA

Toni Atkins

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $12 0.1¢

Trade Now

TT

Tony Thurmond

Vol $94 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $94 0.1¢

Trade Now

CA

Ché Ahn

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Trade Now

EA

Ethan Agarwal

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Trade Now

RB

Rob Bonta

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Trade Now

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Polymarket US
XB Xavier Becerra	95.9% ↑ +0.7%	0.9%	—	Kalshi 95.9% 95.8–96¢ Vol $277.8K Trade Now	Polymarket 95.9% 95.8–96¢ Vol $117.4K Trade Now	Polymarket US 95.0% 94–95¢ Trade Now
SH Steve Hilton	4.1% ↓ -0.1%	1.9%	—	Kalshi 4.2% 3.9–4.4¢ Vol $448.1K Trade Now	Polymarket 4.1% 4–4.2¢ Vol $128.2K Trade Now	Polymarket US 6.0% 5–6¢ Trade Now
AP Alex Padilla	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$3.2K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.2K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
AV Antonio Villaraigosa	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$4.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $4.0K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
BY Bette Yee	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
BW Butch Ware	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$1.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.0K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
CB Chad Bianco	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$7.4K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $7.4K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
DM Daniel Mercuri	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$12	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $12 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
EK Eleni Kounalakis	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$1	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
ES Eric Swalwell	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$9	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $9 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
KH Kamala Harris	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$201	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $201 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
KP Katie Porter	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.1K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
KL Kyle Langford	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$6	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
LZ Leo Zacky	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$6	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
MM Matt Mahan	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$11.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $11.0K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
MY Michael Younger	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$18	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $18 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
NS Nicole Shanahan	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$18	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $18 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
RC Rick Caruso	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$3.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.0K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
SC Stephen Cloobeck	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$1.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $1.0K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
TS Tom Steyer	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	—	$21.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $21.6K Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
TA Toni Atkins	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$12	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $12 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
TT Tony Thurmond	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$94	Kalshi — — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $94 Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
CA Ché Ahn	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket — — Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
EA Ethan Agarwal	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket — — Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now
RB Rob Bonta	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0 Trade Now	Polymarket — — Trade Now	Polymarket US — — Trade Now

Show 5 More Outcomes

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

24H 7D 30D YTD

Platform:

All Kalshi Polymarket Polymarket US

Chart settings

Period 24H7D30DYTD

Platform AllKalshiPolymarketPolymarket US

Mode:

Aggregated Per-Platform Spread Volume

Average:

VWAP Simple

Outcome:

10 selected

Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton Alex Padilla Antonio Villaraigosa Bette Yee Butch Ware Chad Bianco Daniel Mercuri Eleni Kounalakis Eric Swalwell Kamala Harris Katie Porter Kyle Langford Leo Zacky Matt Mahan Michael Younger Nicole Shanahan Rick Caruso Stephen Cloobeck Tom Steyer Toni Atkins Tony Thurmond Ché Ahn Ethan Agarwal Rob Bonta

Xavier BecerraSteve HiltonAlex PadillaAntonio VillaraigosaBette YeeButch WareChad BiancoDaniel MercuriEleni KounalakisEric SwalwellKamala HarrisKatie PorterKyle LangfordLeo ZackyMatt MahanMichael YoungerNicole ShanahanRick CarusoStephen CloobeckTom SteyerToni AtkinsTony ThurmondChé AhnEthan AgarwalRob Bonta

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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California’s June 2 top-two primary is certified. Democrat Xavier Becerra finished first with 2,591,857 votes (28.0%), Republican Steve Hilton finished second with 2,277,318 (24.6%), and Democrat Tom Steyer finished third with 2,110,707 (22.8%). Becerra and Hilton advanced to the November 3 general election to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. See California’s certified Statement of Vote.

The live tracker above is now focused on the general-election winner market. DeFi Rate aggregates pricing from first-party exchange data; because venue volume measures are not always calculated on the same basis, use the venue-level figures rather than treating them as one combined editorial total.

California governor general election: Becerra vs. Hilton

Xavier Becerra (D) is the former US secretary of health and human services and a former California attorney general. He finished first in the certified primary with 2,591,857 votes (28.0%) and entered the general election as the clear prediction-market favorite.

Steve Hilton (R) is a former policy adviser and television host. He finished second with 2,277,318 votes (24.6%), securing the Republican spot on the November ballot. His market price remains well behind Becerra’s, but the live odds above will continue to respond to polling, endorsements, fundraising and campaign developments.

Tom Steyer (D) finished third with 2,110,707 votes (22.8%) and did not advance.

California general election markets

The June 2 primary determined California’s November matchups. Certified top-two pairings referenced on this page include:

• Governor: Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton (R)
• Lieutenant governor: Fiona Ma (D) vs. Gloria Romero (R)
• CA-04: Mike Thompson (D) vs. Eric Jones (D)
• CA-08: John Garamendi (D) vs. Rudy Recile (R)
• CA-11: Scott Wiener (D) vs. Connie Chan (D)
• CA-13: Adam Gray (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R)
• CA-17: Ro Khanna (D) vs. Ritesh Tandon (R)
• CA-22: David Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)
• CA-40: Ken Calvert (R) vs. Young Kim (R)

See the California Secretary of State’s certified lieutenant governor results and US House results. Exchange inventory changes as venues list, close or settle individual markets, so check each contract’s question, deadline and resolution rules before trading.

Related markets

• 2028 Presidential Election Odds — Track the broader field for the next presidential election.
• 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds — Follow the Democratic nomination market.
• 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds — Follow the Republican nomination market.
• California Wealth Tax Odds — Track the separate California ballot-measure market.

Where to trade California election markets

The DeFi Rate governor feed compares mapped contracts from Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US and Gemini Predictions. Platform access and candidate inventory can vary by user and jurisdiction.

• Kalshi lists candidate contracts for the California governor winner market.
• Polymarket Global lists a global California governor election market.
• Polymarket US lists US-market contracts for Becerra and Hilton.
• Gemini Predictions provides additional candidate pricing represented in the DeFi Rate comparison when mapped and available.

For a broader comparison of platforms, funding methods and California availability, see our California prediction markets guide.

How these markets resolve

California governor winner: Candidate contracts resolve according to the rules published by each exchange for the November 3 general election. Traders should read the named resolution source, deadline and any recount or delayed-certification provisions on the specific contract.

Top-two primary advance: These contracts are resolved. A candidate’s Yes contract paid out if that candidate finished in the top two and advanced to November; Becerra and Hilton were the two successful outcomes.

Primary party composition: This market resolved to one Democrat and one Republican based on the two advancing candidates.

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Key dates

• June 2, 2026 — California held its top-two primary. Becerra and Hilton advanced, and the primary advance and party-composition markets resolved.
• July 10, 2026 — The California Secretary of State certified the primary Statement of Vote.
• October 5, 2026 — California counties begin mailing vote-by-mail ballots for the general election.
• November 3, 2026 — General Election Day. See the California Secretary of State election page for official deadlines and voting information.

Market integrity and candidate trading

Kalshi previously sanctioned former governor candidate Kyle Langford after he traded on his own race, imposing a five-year trading ban and a $2,000 fine. The case remains a useful reminder that candidates and people with material nonpublic information can face exchange restrictions. Review each venue’s eligibility and prohibited-trading rules before participating.

What the California race could mean for 2028

The next governor will inherit one of the country’s largest state economies and a nationally visible office. The result could affect how both parties discuss California ahead of 2028, but this page’s live pricing is limited to the 2026 governor race. Use the related presidential trackers above for current 2028 probabilities.