Each runs on, or routes to, a CFTC-registered exchange. Novig is approved but not trading yet.
Best Prediction Market Apps Every US prediction market app, compared
The full list of prediction markets you can use in the US, with each app’s rating, fees, sign-up bonus and CFTC status, plus today’s top markets and the news that moves them.
Kalshi handled 76% of it.
$25Polymarket US
Deposit $10 get a $25 trading bonus with code RATE.
Featured prediction markets
Rodriguez Taverna vs Bueno
- Santiago Rodriguez Taverna56% 2 pts today (down)
$2.0M traded on Kalshi in 24 hours
Which company will have the best AI model?
- This month: Google is the clear favorite at 81%.
- This year: Anthropic is a 49% favorite to have the best AI model at the end of 2026.
Democrats are favored to win both chambers.
- Democrats win the House92%No change today
- Democrats win the Senate67% 1 pt today (up)
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
- Bears to win59%
Compare apps
List of US prediction market apps
Sorted by our rating. Each offer shows when an editor last checked it; tap a column to re-sort.
| Fees and banking | Availability | Sign up | Sources | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket USBest for: Sports traders who want a fast app and live in-game trading | 4.9/5 | $25Deposit $10 get a $25 trading bonus · code RATE | Up to 1.74% per trade. Formula-based: highest near 50¢, lower toward the edges; makers earn a rebate of up to 0.31%.Banking: No deposit or withdrawal fees listed; ACH 1–3 business days, card and Apple Pay instant. | All states and DC except Nevada | Claim$25 | Sources› |
| KalshiBest for: New traders who want the deepest regulated market list | 4.7/5 | $55Trade $25, Get $55 · code RATE | 0.07–1.75% per trade. Formula-based: highest near 50¢, lower toward the edges; resting (maker) orders pay less or nothing.Banking: ACH free; 2% fee on debit card deposits. | All states and DC except Michigan and Nevada | Claim$55 | Sources› |
| Gemini PredictionsBest for: Gemini crypto customers | 4.3/5 | $100Trade pro football contracts, get up to $100 in Promo CashNot in our daily check | 0–1.75% per trade for takers, 0–0.44% for makers. Formula-based: highest near 50¢, lower toward the edges.Banking: Free ACH and wire deposits; debit card 3.49%, PayPal 2.5%. Free ACH withdrawals; wire $25. | All states and DC except Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Ohio | Claim$100 | |
| FanDuel PredictsBest for: FanDuel customers in states without a FanDuel sportsbook | 4.2/5 | $100Trade $5, Get $100 | 2% of the potential payout, charged at checkout and on early cash-out; 0% maker.Banking: Free ACH; debit card and online banking. | All 50 states and DC; sports contracts only where FanDuel has no sportsbook license | Claim$100 | Sources› |
| DraftKings PredictionsBest for: Existing DraftKings customers | 4.0/5 | $150Trade $5+, Get $150 in Bonuses | Up to 2¢ per contract per side, all-in: $0.02 between 30¢ and 94¢, less near the edges.Banking: No withdrawal fees. Online banking, debit card, Apple Pay, Venmo, Cash App and PayPal; debit and Apple Pay withdrawals in under 1 business day, others 1–2 days (check 7–14). | All states and DC except Maine and New Hampshire | Claim$150 | Sources› |
| OG PredictionsBest for: Sports traders who want a parlay builder | 3.9/5 | $10Trade $10, Get $10 | Most markets up to 1.75% per trade (formula-based, highest near 50¢; resting orders pay a quarter); crypto, FX, commodity and index markets $0.02 per contract. Nothing at settlement. | All 50 states and DC | Claim$10 | Sources› |
DeFi Rate earns a commission when you sign up through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states). Offers are for new customers and can change.
Which app
The best app for what you want to trade
Kalshi
The most markets and the most volume, in most states. Trade $25, Get $55 with code RATE.
Polymarket US
Deposit $10 get a $25 trading bonus with code RATE: 2.5 times your deposit, the best ratio we track.
FanDuel Predicts
Trade $5, Get $100. Sports contracts only in states where FanDuel has no sportsbook.
OG Predictions
A built-in parlay builder, which most regulated rivals don’t offer. About 2¢ per contract to trade.
Promo codes
All promo codes and bonuses →Prediction market app sign-up bonuses
What each app gives new customers, and what it takes. 6 offers worth up to $440 in all; our editors checked them Oct 10, 2026.
| App | Sign-up bonus | Promo code | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket US | $25Deposit $10 get a $25 trading bonus | RATE | Polymarket US$25 |
| Kalshi | $55Trade $25, Get $55 | RATE | Kalshi$55 |
| FanDuel Predicts | $100Trade $5, Get $100 | None needed | FanDuel Predicts$100 |
| OG Predictions | $10Trade $10, Get $10 | None needed | OG Predictions$10 |
| DraftKings Predictions | $150Trade $5+, Get $150 in Bonuses | None needed | DraftKings Predictions$150 |
| Gemini Predictions | $100Trade pro football contracts, get up to $100 in Promo Cash | None needed | Gemini Predictions$100 |
Every prediction market promo code, with each offer’s full terms, the states it covers and what you can cash out. DeFi Rate earns a commission when you sign up through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).
Today
Top markets right now
The biggest questions on Kalshi and Polymarket, with each venue’s price.
CFTC tracker
Every US operator and its regulatory status
8 apps are live. DCM: designated contract market (an exchange). DCO: clearinghouse. FCM and IB: brokers that route trades to an exchange.
10 rows shown
| Notes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket US | Live | DCM, DCO | Polymarket | Launched Dec 3, 2025, operated by QCX LLC. |
| Kalshi | Live | DCM, DCO | Kalshi | First CFTC-designated market for event contracts (Nov 2020); launched July 2021. Self-clears through Kalshi Klear (DCO, Aug 2024). |
| Gemini Predictions | Live | DCM, DCO | Gemini | Gemini Titan (DCM) and Gemini Olympus (DCO). |
| FanDuel Predicts | Live | Partner DCM | CME Group | Launched Dec 2025 as a FanDuel–CME venture; sports contracts limited to 18 states where FanDuel has no sportsbook license. |
| DraftKings Predictions | Live | DCM, IB | CME Group | Live since Dec 19, 2025. |
| OG Predictions | Live | Partner DCM | Crypto.com | Crypto.com’s standalone app, launched Feb 3, 2026 on its CDNA exchange. |
| Underdog Predict | Live | FCM | Aristotle | Built into the Underdog app through Crypto.com/CDNA (announced Sep 2, 2025); routes through CDNA as an FCM alongside its own Aristotle exchange. |
| ForecastEx | Live | DCM, DCO | ForecastEx | Interactive Brokers-affiliated exchange and clearinghouse; also carries Robinhood order flow. |
| Novig | Approved, not launched | DCM | Ludlow | DCM cleared in June 2026; not yet trading. |
| Fanatics Markets | Not confirmed | — | CME Group | Status not confirmed in our tracker. |
Legality
Where prediction markets are legal
Kalshi and Polymarket US operate nationally under federal CFTC rules. Sports contracts are being challenged in several states, and the federal appeals courts disagree, so availability can change. These are the active disputes.
| What’s happening | Our coverage | |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey | Asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review its loss to Kalshi in the Third Circuit. | New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Decide Whether Prediction Markets Are Sportsbooks or SwapsSep 2 |
| Nevada | The Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada and against Kalshi, the opposite of the Third Circuit. | New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Decide Whether Prediction Markets Are Sportsbooks or SwapsSep 2 |
| California | The Ninth Circuit revived two tribes’ challenge to Kalshi and Robinhood sports contracts on tribal lands. | Ninth Circuit Revives Tribal Challenge to Kalshi Sports Contracts in CaliforniaSep 16 |
| Missouri | The attorney general ordered six exchanges to stop offering sports contracts in the state. | Missouri Attorney General’s Orders Add Weight to High Court DecisionSep 21 |
| Montana | Kalshi agreed to dismiss its lawsuit in exchange for non-action promises from regulators. | Kalshi ‘Settles’ Lawsuit Against Montana Attorney General With Allowance for Ninth Circuit OpinionSep 18 |
| New York | The CFTC argued in a New York hearing that federal jurisdiction over event contracts is exclusive. | CFTC Argues Jurisdictional Exclusivity in New York HearingSep 15 |
State-by-state availability for each app: DeFi Rate litigation tracker.
Trading detail
Compare prices
The same market can cost a different amount on each venue. Pick a market and an amount to see what each one pays, with Kalshi’s fee.
Who wins the Senate? Democrats, all venues
Pick a market and an amount
| Venue | Price | 24h traded | Est. fee | Payout if correct | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiPrice to buy | 68.6¢Price to buy | – | $2.19 | $145before fees | Kalshi68.6¢ |
| PolymarketPrice to buy | 67¢Price to buy | – | n/a | $149before fees | Polymarket67¢ |
“Price to buy” is the venue’s current ask; “last trade” is the most recent trade and may not be available now. We don’t yet measure how many contracts are available at a price, so large orders may fill higher. Est. fee uses Kalshi’s published taker-fee formula, per contract in a bundle; other venues’ fees aren’t in our feed. DeFi Rate may earn a commission when you open an account through these links. 18+ (21+ in some states).
News
All news →Latest prediction market news
Talarico Climbs to 66% on Kalshi as Texas Senate Trading Hits $35M
Traders favor the Democrat over Ken Paxton even as recent polls show a close race, putting Texas alongside Ohio as a potential Republican Senate loss.
Cheryle Shepstone ·Acton Hits 76% on Kalshi in Ohio Governor Race as Ramaswamy Ad Sparks Republican Backlash
A personal attack featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother has divided Republicans as traders grow more confident in the Democrat. They also favor Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race.
Cheryle Shepstone ·Ohio Threatens Prediction Market Lawsuits as Polymarket Sues First
Two companies are challenging Ohio’s crackdown, regulators say, while Gov. Mike DeWine promises enforcement after an Oct. 16 deadline. Polymarket’s case adds a constitutional challenge to the industry’s federal regulation argument.
Cheryle Shepstone ·Explanation
Prediction markets, explained
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market is an exchange where you trade contracts on real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, so its price, between 1¢ and 99¢, works as the market’s estimate of the chance. Unlike a sportsbook’s odds, that price is set by buyers and sellers trading with each other.
In the US, regulated prediction markets are supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same federal regulator that oversees commodity futures. Politics, sports, economics and crypto are the most active categories. Our 2026 midterms page shows how a market looks in practice.
For a race-focused comparison, see our guide to best election prediction apps, including coverage, fees and state availability.
How a market works, start to finish
- Listing. The exchange publishes the question and the rules, including the source that will decide it.
- Discovery. The order book opens and a price emerges from real bids and offers.
- Trading. You buy or sell at any time before the market closes. You don’t have to hold to the end.
- Resolution. The named source is checked and the market resolves Yes or No.
- Settlement. Each winning contract pays $1; each losing one pays nothing.
Example: you buy “No” at 70¢ and the market resolves No. Your contract pays $1, a 30¢ profit before fees.
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks and exchanges
| Prediction market | Sportsbook | Futures exchange | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What you trade | Yes/no contracts, 1¢–99¢, settling at $1 or $0 | Bets at odds the book sets | Contracts on prices of commodities and indexes |
| Who’s on the other side | Other traders | The sportsbook | Other traders |
| Regulator | CFTC (federal) | State gaming regulators | CFTC (federal) |
| Cost | A trading fee; no built-in margin | The margin built into the odds | Commissions and exchange fees |
| Exit early? | Yes, at the market price | Sometimes, via cash-out offers | Yes |
How to choose an app
- CFTC status. Some apps run their own exchange; others route trades through a partner. The operator table shows which.
- Fees. Capped per-contract fees are usually cheapest; fees charged as a share of the potential payout are usually the most expensive. See how prediction market fees work.
- Liquidity. Tight bid–ask spreads on the markets you trade matter more than headline volume. See volume by venue.
- Markets. Some apps cover everything; others are sports-first.
- Banking. Check deposit and withdrawal methods and their fees before you fund an account.
- Availability. Confirm the app, and the market you want, is open in your state.
How to sign up
- Pick an app from the comparison and read its review.
- Sign up with the promo code, if there is one, before identity verification. Regulated exchanges ask for your legal name, address, date of birth and Social Security number.
- Deposit using a method without fees if you can.
- Find a market, check its settlement rules, and place your order. The app shows the cost and payout before you confirm.
Trading responsibly
Any trade can lose its full stake, however likely the outcome looks. Prices near certainty can reverse on new information, the crowd isn’t always right, and thin markets can fill at worse prices than the one you see. Rules and availability can also change as courts and regulators act. Trade only with money you can afford to lose, kept separate from what you need to live on.
How we review apps
Each review is based on hands-on testing: we open and fund accounts, trade, and complete deposit-to-withdrawal cycles. We check fees, banking and availability against each platform’s published terms and the CFTC’s records, and recheck sign-up offers every morning. Ratings weigh fees, liquidity, market depth and bonus terms. Our methodology explains how every figure on the site is labeled.
Methodology
Offers are checked by an editor every morning. Ratings come from our hands-on reviews. Fees, banking and CFTC status are checked against each platform’s terms and CFTC filings; anything we haven’t re-verified is labeled.
Full methodology
VerificationAn editor opens each offer and its full terms every morning and records the time.
ChangesChanges to amount, requirement or eligibility are logged with a date.
FilingsPrograms filed with the CFTC are labeled with their status; “10-day review” means not yet active.
CommissionDeFi Rate is paid when you sign up through our links; the default order is our editors’ ranking, and every table can be sorted by value.
Data and sources
- Source records for every number on this page: contracts, quote types, calculations and history
- DeFi Rate prediction-market methodology: how we price, average and label every figure
- Permanent snapshot, Oct 10, 10:30 PM ET: a frozen copy for citation
- Democrats win the Senate: daily history (CSV)
- The Fed hikes on Oct. 28: daily history (CSV)
- San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LXI: daily history (CSV)
- Democrats win the House: daily history (CSV)
- US prediction market apps compared (CSV)
- Every US prediction market operator and its CFTC status (CSV)
- Every figure and contract on this page (CSV)
Questions
What is the most popular prediction market app in the US?
Kalshi, by trading volume: about 76% of the prediction-market volume we track over the last 30 days. Polymarket US is its main rival.
How do prediction markets make money?
Mostly from trading fees. Kalshi’s fee depends on the price, capped at about 1.75¢ per contract near 50¢; others charge per contract or as a share of the payout. Some also charge for certain deposits or withdrawals.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Federally, regulated prediction markets are treated as derivatives exchanges supervised by the CFTC, not as gambling. Several states disagree for sports contracts, and courts are split. The legal section above tracks the current cases.
Which prediction market app has the best liquidity?
In the US, Kalshi has the most volume. Liquidity varies by market, so check the spread on the specific market you want to trade.
Are prediction markets legal in every state?
Kalshi and Polymarket US operate in most states under CFTC rules (Kalshi’s sign-up bonus excludes Michigan and Nevada), but some states are challenging sports contracts in court, and FanDuel and DraftKings limit sports contracts in states where they hold sportsbook licenses.
About the authors
Christopher Feery has written professionally since 2014 and has covered the gambling industry full time since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018.
Cheryle Shepstone is DeFi Rate’s Director of Content and Strategy and oversees its prediction-market research, platform reviews and editorial methodology.
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