Following Tuesday’s California governor primary, it appears that November’s general election will be just as prediction markets expected.
The ballots are still being counted, with just 58% of the votes in as of Wednesday afternoon, but Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are well ahead of the rest of the long list of candidates. Hilton took an early lead as the votes came in, but Becerra continues to close the gap as the percentages increase.
Prediction markets have Becerra finishing first in the primary. Heading into November, traders still expect Becerra to be the next California governor.
California governor votes still counting
Prediction markets got to the right shape of the race before the count did.
While Hilton has the early lead, media outlets are calling the race too close to call as of mid-day Wednesday. Vote breakdown with 58% of the votes in:
- Hilton – 27.8%
- Becerra – 25.4%
- Democrat Tom Steyer – 19.6%
- Republican Chad Bianco – 11.3%
- Democrat Katie Porter – 4.6%
- Democrat Matt Mahan – 4.1%
Should the trends hold with the second half of returns, prediction markets appear spot on. Becerra surged over the past month on Kalshi and Polymarket, while Hilton stayed ahead with Republican voters. Traders never really bought the idea that the race would break cleanly in another direction.
Split vote, different lanes
Traders knew Hilton was the clear favorite for Republicans in the free-for-all, top-two advance primary.
While they also figured Becerra would clear the field, they also recognized that a large field of Democratic candidates would split the vote aggressively. Steyer and Porter drew enough from the same lane to make the top of the race more crowded, while the Republican side was less fractured in the same way.
That’s also why early returns can look misleading. Republicans had two candidates in the top six, while Democrats had four drawing significant counts. That can make the front-runner in the general election, Becerra in this case, look weaker than they really are until later ballots and broader geographic returns come in.
California is big enough, and the primary field is crowded enough, that the first snapshot rarely tells the whole story.
Swalwell to Becerra
The other storyline hanging over this race is how much it changed from the earlier version that prediction markets were dealing with. Former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell was the strong early favorite before a scandal reshaped the field.
Swalwell’s exit opened the door for Becerra to move into the center of the trade during the past month. Traders did not just pick a winner. They absorbed a candidate shift in real time, and it appears they did so correctly.
Markets didn’t just react to polling noise. They also adjusted to the post-scandal field and kept pushing Becerra toward the front. Even with early returns still showing Hilton ahead, the market has continued to treat Becerra as the likely finalist and eventual winner in both the primary and general election.
California governor prediction markets results
For now, prediction markets are still where they’ve been trending. Becerra first and Hilton second in the primaries. Becerra remains favored in the general, with a 77% chance on Kalshi in a market with $41.3 million in volume, and that’s with Steyer carrying 12% as well. Becerra is at 81% on Polymarket with $1.3 million in volume on him alone.
That may still change if the remaining votes break differently, but the trade has already moved far enough to suggest traders think the early count is more about ballot timing than about a reversal in the race itself.
California’s primary is still being counted, but the market has already settled on the shape of the November race.
