Mexico: World Cup Prediction Markets

Mexico was eliminated from the 2026 World Cup after losing 3-2 to England in the Round of 16. Jude Bellingham’s quickfire double put England 2-0 up, but Julián Quiñones halved the deficit with a superb strike. England then went down to 10 men after Jarell Quansah was sent off, but Harry Kane extended the team’s lead by scoring a penalty a few minutes later. Raúl Jiménez pulled one back from the penalty spot, and El Tri bombarded the England goal in search of an equalizer, but they couldn’t find a breakthrough.

Mexico’s 2026 World Cup recap

It was a disappointing end to an excellent World Cup for the team. El Tri made a superb start to their World Cup campaign by beating South Africa 2-0 at Estádio Azteca on June 11. Julián Quiñones scored in the 10th minute, and El Tri then piled on the pressure, but they couldn’t find a second goal. South Africa’s Yaya Sithole was shown a red card for bringing down Brian Gutiérrez while he was clean in on goal, and Mexico eventually capitalized on the advantage. Raúl Jiménez doubled their advantage by firing in a low shot, and El Tri looked comfortable from that point onwards.

El Tri then beat South Korea 1-0 in Guadalajara, courtesy of a second-half strike from Luis Romo, before beating Czechia 3-0 in its final group stage game. That teed up a Round of 32 clash with Ecuador, and goals from Quiñones and Jiménez earned the team a 2-0 win at a raucuous Estadio Azteca.

That extended Mexico’s unbeaten streak to 12 games. El Tri were also on fire in 2025, winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup and the Nations League. They then drew 0-0 with Portugal and 1-1 with Belgium in a pair of friendlies in March. Those results were impressive, as Belgium and Portugal both comfortably beat the USA during the same international break. Mexico also beat Ghana 2-0 in another friendly at the end of May, followed by a 1-0 victory over Australia and a 5-1 win against Serbia on the eve of the World Cup.

However, El Tri rarely make it past the Round of 16 at the World Cup, and that historical ceiling was reflected in the prediction markets. They were trading at 5.1% with Kalshi and 3.1% with Polymarket to lift the trophy before losing to England. Yet El Tri have moved up to 10th in the FIFA world rankings, and they can hold their heads high after almost beating one of the tournament favorites in the Round of 16.

For live pricing on all remaining World Cup contenders, see our 2026 World Cup odds tracker.

Key players to watch: Álvarez should recover from injury before the World Cup

Mexico has a deep squad featuring players from Liga MX, Major League Soccer, and several big European leagues. Here’s who we enjoyed watching during Mexico’s World Cup campaign:

• Edson Álvarez: Mexico’s captain is a strong holding midfielder, currently on loan at Fenerbahçe from West Ham, renowned for his tenacious tackling and his high work rate. Álvarez provides an effective screen for Mexico’s defense, and he’s also reliable in possession.
• Raúl Jiménez: The veteran striker scored nine goals in 36 games for Fulham in the Premier League this season. He’s a strong finisher, and his movement and aerial ability will be crucial for Mexico at the World Cup. Jiménez has scored 47 goals in 128 games for his country. He ended the season on a seven-game goal drought for Fulham, which was concerning, but Jiménez scored in Mexico’s 5-1 win against Serbia in June. That boosted his confidence ahead of the World Cup, and he was on target against South Africa in the opening game of the tournament, before scoring crucial goals against Ecuador in the Round of 32 and England in the Round of 16.
• César Montes: Mexico’s vice-captain will form the backbone of El Tri’s defense at this tournament. He’s tall, physically imposing, and dangerous at set pieces. Unfortunately, he was sent off against South Africa, so he missed Matchday 2, but he returned to the starting lineup for Mexico’s game against Czechia, and he was superb throughout the tournament.

Related markets for World Cup contenders

Mexico’s outright winner contract resolved to “no” immediately after it was eliminated on July 5. There are some interesting markets available on the remaining 2026 World Cup contenders:

• To reach a certain stage: Prediction markets let you bet on a team to make the semifinals or the final. Backing El Tri to reach the Round of 16 was popular, as that’s normally their ceiling.
• World Cup prop markets: Kalshi also offers a range of prediction-market-exclusive props that traditional sportsbooks don’t carry. These include whether President Trump will attend the final or what the announcers will say during the game. These novelty contracts are a good example of how prediction markets offer a wider range of World Cup markets than sportsbooks.

More World Cup markets

Where to bet on the World Cup

Mexico’s World Cup markets were available on Kalshi, Polymarket, and through event contracts on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics (routed through the CME, though these don’t carry the same volume or market depth as Kalshi or Polymarket). Kalshi has the widest selection — outright winner, round-by-round advancement, Golden Boot, and much more. Polymarket offers a wide range of futures markets too. Both sites also publish a long list of markets on every Mexico game, from the result and the spread to total goals and goalscorer props.

One advantage prediction markets have over traditional sportsbooks: they’re accessible in all 50 states. Online sports betting is still restricted to roughly half the country, which means fans in states like Texas, California, and Florida — three of the largest El Tri fanbases in the U.S. — can trade on Kalshi or Polymarket but can’t place a legal sports bet. For millions of El Tri supporters across the country, prediction markets may be the only legal way to back Mexico in future tournaments.

Before placing your first trade, it’s worth comparing prediction market fees across platforms — trading costs vary significantly between Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CME-routed sportsbook contracts. Fans in California and Florida can check our state-specific guides for a full breakdown of which platforms are available where they live. See our list of exclusive and latest prediction market promos for new accounts.