Rodriguez Taverna vs Bueno
- Santiago Rodriguez Taverna55% 3 pts today (down)
$2.1M traded on Kalshi in 24 hours
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Featured prediction markets
Which company will have the best AI model?
- This month: Google is the clear favorite at 84%.
- This year: Anthropic is a 46% favorite to have the best AI model at the end of 2026.
Democrats are favored to win both chambers.
- Democrats win the House92%No change today
- Democrats win the Senate68% 2 pts today (up)
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
- Bears to win59%
Economy · Biggest move this week
Will the Fed hike on Oct. 28?
8%Hike
About 1 in 13▼ Down 21 pts this week
Last trades; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $1,333 if correct, before fees.
History: Kalshi. Shaded = no data in our feed. Sources & history› Full page →
Market moves
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 22, 11:04 AM ET).
Today · Oct 22
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Disagreements
Where the sources don’t match
Polymarket is 0.5 points higher than Kalshi on a Democratic Senate
Kalshi’s figure is built from two contracts, so the comparison is close, not exact.
A Republican sweep costs 8.6¢ on Kalshi and 8.5¢ on Polymarket
Matching contracts on both venues. Long shots are often pricier on one.
Kalshi prices an October hike at 7.5% in one market and 8.5% in another
Two contracts that settle on the same outcome.
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US Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Jumps 153% to $104M Ahead of the Midterms
Talarico Climbs to 66% on Kalshi as Texas Senate Trading Hits $35M
Acton Hits 76% on Kalshi in Ohio Governor Race as Ramaswamy Ad Sparks Republican Backlash
Ohio Threatens Prediction Market Lawsuits as Polymarket Sues First
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Every number has receipts
SourcesTap any figure to see the exact contracts, bid and ask, quote age and history.
One methodHeadline figures average Kalshi and Polymarket where both list the question. One venue alone is labeled.
TimestampsData observation and editorial updates are shown separately.
CitableEvery page has a permanent snapshot and downloadable data.