World Cup Group K Winner Odds and Predictions
Prediction markets give Portugal the highest probability of advancing out of Group K at 64.5%, with Colombia at 27.5%, Congo DR at 4.7%, and Uzbekistan at 2.7% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. Group play opens Wednesday, June 17 with Portugal vs Congo DR at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas (1 p.m. ET on Fox), followed that night by Uzbekistan vs Columbia at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City, Mexico (10 p.m. ET on FS1). The group continues with Portugal vs Uzbekistan at NRG Stadium and Columbia vs Congo DR at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico, and closes Saturday, June 27 with Columbia vs. Portugal at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida and Congo DR vs Uzbekistan at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Our Group K odds table below shows the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini on each outcome, refreshing every 30 minutes.
Group K Prediction Market Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
POPortugal
Vol $34.2K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
-182↓ -1.4%
O
-213
K
-182
P
-182
COColombia
Vol $11.8K
Spread 2.5%
Agg
+264— +0.0%
O
+233
K
+239
P
+264
CDCongo DR
Vol $9.2K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
+2,028— +0.0%
O
+1,567
P
+2,028
K
+2,122
UZUzbekistan
Vol $5.5K
Spread 2.5%
Agg
+3,674↑ +1.2%
O
+2,400
P
+3,674
K
+6,567
JAJamaica
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—↓ -0.5%
K
—
NCNew Caledonia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
—↓ -0.5%
K
—
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO Portugal | -182 ↓ -1.4% | 3.5% | $34.2K |
Kalshi
-182
|
Polymarket
-182
|
OG
-213
|
CO Colombia | +264 — +0.0% | 2.5% | $11.8K |
Kalshi
+239
|
Polymarket
+264
|
OG
+233
|
CD Congo DR | +2,028 — +0.0% | 1.5% | $9.2K |
Kalshi
+2,122
|
Polymarket
+2,028
|
OG
+1,567
|
UZ Uzbekistan | +3,674 ↑ +1.2% | 2.5% | $5.5K |
Kalshi
+6,567
|
Polymarket
+3,674
|
OG
+2,400
|
JA Jamaica | — ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
NC New Caledonia | — ↓ -0.5% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
Portugal has a 64.5% implied probability to win Group K
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Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO Portugal |
JA Jamaica |
Kalshi | A -182 | B — | +64.50% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
NC New Caledonia |
Kalshi | A -182 | B — | +64.50% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Kalshi | A -182 | B +6,567 | +63.00% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Polymarket | A -182 | B +3,674 | +61.85% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
CD Congo DR |
Kalshi | A -182 | B +2,122 | +60.00% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
CD Congo DR |
Polymarket | A -182 | B +2,028 | +59.80% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
CO Colombia |
Polymarket | A -182 | B +264 | +37.00% | Buy spread | |
PO Portugal |
CO Colombia |
Kalshi | A -182 | B +239 | +35.00% | Buy spread | |
CO Colombia |
JA Jamaica |
Kalshi | A +239 | B — | +29.50% | Buy spread | |
CO Colombia |
NC New Caledonia |
Kalshi | A +239 | B — | +29.50% | Buy spread | |
CO Colombia |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Kalshi | A +239 | B +6,567 | +28.00% | Buy spread | |
CO Colombia |
CD Congo DR |
Kalshi | A +239 | B +2,122 | +25.00% | Buy spread | |
CO Colombia |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Polymarket | A +264 | B +3,674 | +24.85% | Buy spread | |
CO Colombia |
CD Congo DR |
Polymarket | A +264 | B +2,028 | +22.80% | Buy spread | |
CD Congo DR |
JA Jamaica |
Kalshi | A +2,122 | B — | +4.50% | Buy spread | |
CD Congo DR |
NC New Caledonia |
Kalshi | A +2,122 | B — | +4.50% | Buy spread | |
CD Congo DR |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Kalshi | A +2,122 | B +6,567 | +3.00% | Buy spread | |
CD Congo DR |
UZ Uzbekistan |
Polymarket | A +2,028 | B +3,674 | +2.05% | Buy spread | |
UZ Uzbekistan |
JA Jamaica |
Kalshi | A +6,567 | B — | +1.50% | Buy spread | |
UZ Uzbekistan |
NC New Caledonia |
Kalshi | A +6,567 | B — | +1.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Group K schedule
| Date | Time (ET) | Match | Venue | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, June 17 | 1 p.m. | Portugal vs Congo DR | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas | Fox |
| Wed, June 17 | 10 p.m. | Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Estadio Banorte, Mexico City | FS1 |
| Tue, June 23 | 1 p.m. | Portugal vs Uzbekistan | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas | Fox |
| Tue, June 23 | 10 p.m. | Colombia vs Congo DR | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, | FS1 |
| Sat, June 27 | 7:30 p.m. | Colombia vs Portugal | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami | Fox |
| Sat, June 27 | 7:30 p.m. | Congo DR vs Uzbekistan | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia | FS1 |
Group K standings
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Congo DR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colombia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Standings are zeroed out pre-tournament. The first matchday for Group K is set for June 14. The team order follows the official draw seeding (Portugal 1, Congo DR 2, Uzbekistan 3, Colombia 4). The top two teams from Group K will advance directly to the round of 32, with the third-place team eligible if they finish among the eight best third-place teams across the 12 groups.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |