World Cup Group E Winner Odds and Predictions
Who will win Group E? Germany has a 72.8% chance to win Group E, followed by Ecuador (19.5%), Ivory Coast (9.8%), and Curacao (1.0%). Curaçao becomes the smallest country by population ever to qualify for a World Cup and they will open against four-time champion Germany. Group E play opens Sunday, June 14, with Germany vs Curaçao at NRG Stadium in Houston (1 p.m. ET on Fox) and Ivory Coast vs Ecuador at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia (7 p.m. ET on FS1). The group wraps Thursday, June 25 with Curaçao vs Ivory Coast at Lincoln Financial Field and Ecuador vs Germany at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Use the odds table below to find the best odds from sites like Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Group E lines and probability updated every 30 minutes.
World Cup Group E Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
GEGermany
Vol $11.0K
Spread 6.5%
Agg
72.8%↑ +1.5%
O
76.0%
P
73.0%
K
69.5%
ECEcuador
Vol $3.4K
Spread 7.5%
Agg
19.5%— +0.0%
O
25.0%
K
19.5%
P
17.5%
ICIvory Coast
Vol $1.9K
Spread 10.5%
Agg
9.8%↑ +0.2%
O
19.0%
K
11.0%
P
8.6%
CUCuracao
Vol $1.1K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
1.0%— +0.0%
O
6.0%
P
1.5%
K
0.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE Germany | 72.8% ↑ +1.5% | 6.5% | $11.0K |
Kalshi
69.5%
|
Polymarket
73.0%
|
OG
76.0%
|
EC Ecuador | 19.5% — +0.0% | 7.5% | $3.4K |
Kalshi
19.5%
|
Polymarket
17.5%
|
OG
25.0%
|
IC Ivory Coast | 9.8% ↑ +0.2% | 10.5% | $1.9K |
Kalshi
11.0%
|
Polymarket
8.6%
|
OG
19.0%
|
CU Curacao | 1.0% — +0.0% | 5.5% | $1.1K |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
1.5%
|
OG
6.0%
|
Implied Probability for Each Team to Advance
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE Germany |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 71¢ | Sell @ P 72¢ | +1.00% | +0.29% |
No | |
CU Curacao |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 1.1¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
EC Ecuador |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 19¢ | Sell @ K 19¢ | +0.00% | -0.19% |
No | |
IC Ivory Coast |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 10.4¢ | Sell @ K 10¢ | -0.40% | -0.50% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE Germany |
CU Curacao |
Polymarket | A 73.0% | B 1.5% | +71.50% | Buy spread | |
GE Germany |
CU Curacao |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.5% | +69.00% | Buy spread | |
GE Germany |
IC Ivory Coast |
Polymarket | A 73.0% | B 8.6% | +64.45% | Buy spread | |
GE Germany |
IC Ivory Coast |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 11.0% | +58.50% | Buy spread | |
GE Germany |
EC Ecuador |
Polymarket | A 73.0% | B 17.5% | +55.50% | Buy spread | |
GE Germany |
EC Ecuador |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 19.5% | +50.00% | Buy spread | |
EC Ecuador |
CU Curacao |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 0.5% | +19.00% | Buy spread | |
EC Ecuador |
CU Curacao |
Polymarket | A 17.5% | B 1.5% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
IC Ivory Coast |
CU Curacao |
Kalshi | A 11.0% | B 0.5% | +10.50% | Buy spread | |
EC Ecuador |
IC Ivory Coast |
Polymarket | A 17.5% | B 8.6% | +8.95% | Buy spread | |
EC Ecuador |
IC Ivory Coast |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 11.0% | +8.50% | Buy spread | |
IC Ivory Coast |
CU Curacao |
Polymarket | A 8.6% | B 1.5% | +7.05% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |