World Cup Group D Winner Odds: USA Favored to Win at 39.4%
As of today, USA is the favorite to win Group D with prediction markets pricing a 39.4% probability, followed by Turkiye (34.4%), Paraguay (17.0%), and Australia (6.9%). Türkiye returns to the World Cup for the first time since 2002, when they finished third in their best-ever tournament run, and the late-qualifying Pot 4 squad has the attacking pieces to make Group D less of a glide path for the host. Group play opens Friday, June 12, with United States vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (9 p.m. ET on Fox), followed early Saturday by Australia vs Türkiye at BC Place in Vancouver (12 a.m. ET on FS1). The group wraps Thursday, June 25 with Türkiye vs United States at SoFi Stadium and Paraguay vs Australia at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Use the odds table below to find the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Odds and probability updated every 30 minutes.
Probability of Each Team Winning Group D
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Today's Group D Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
USUSA
Vol $7.3K
Spread 8.0%
Agg
39.4%↑ +3.2%
O
45.0%
K
39.5%
P
37.0%
TUTurkiye
Vol $13.7K
Spread 9.5%
Agg
34.4%↓ -0.6%
O
42.0%
P
35.0%
K
32.5%
PAParaguay
Vol $5.8K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
17.0%— +0.0%
O
22.0%
P
17.0%
K
16.5%
AUAustralia
Vol $2.6K
Spread 8.1%
Agg
6.9%— +0.0%
O
15.0%
K
8.5%
P
6.9%
KOKosovo
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
RORomania
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
SLSlovakia
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US USA | 39.4% ↑ +3.2% | 8.0% | $7.3K |
Kalshi
39.5%
|
Polymarket
37.0%
|
OG
45.0%
|
TU Turkiye | 34.4% ↓ -0.6% | 9.5% | $13.7K |
Kalshi
32.5%
|
Polymarket
35.0%
|
OG
42.0%
|
PA Paraguay | 17.0% — +0.0% | 5.5% | $5.8K |
Kalshi
16.5%
|
Polymarket
17.0%
|
OG
22.0%
|
AU Australia | 6.9% — +0.0% | 8.1% | $2.6K |
Kalshi
8.5%
|
Polymarket
6.9%
|
OG
15.0%
|
KO Kosovo | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
RO Romania | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
SL Slovakia | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TU Turkiye |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 33¢ | Sell @ P 34¢ | +1.00% | +0.67% |
No | |
AU Australia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 7.9¢ | Sell @ K 8¢ | +0.10% | +0.02% |
No | |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 17¢ | Sell @ P 16¢ | -1.00% | -1.17% |
No | |
US USA |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 40¢ | Sell @ K 39¢ | -1.00% | -1.39% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US USA |
KO Kosovo |
Kalshi | A 39.5% | B 0.0% | +39.50% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
RO Romania |
Kalshi | A 39.5% | B 0.0% | +39.50% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
SL Slovakia |
Kalshi | A 39.5% | B 0.0% | +39.50% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
KO Kosovo |
Kalshi | A 32.5% | B 0.0% | +32.50% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
RO Romania |
Kalshi | A 32.5% | B 0.0% | +32.50% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
SL Slovakia |
Kalshi | A 32.5% | B 0.0% | +32.50% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
AU Australia |
Kalshi | A 39.5% | B 8.5% | +31.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
AU Australia |
Polymarket | A 37.0% | B 6.9% | +30.10% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
AU Australia |
Polymarket | A 35.0% | B 6.9% | +28.10% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
AU Australia |
Kalshi | A 32.5% | B 8.5% | +24.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi | A 39.5% | B 16.5% | +23.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
PA Paraguay |
Polymarket | A 37.0% | B 17.0% | +20.00% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
PA Paraguay |
Polymarket | A 35.0% | B 17.0% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
PA Paraguay |
KO Kosovo |
Kalshi | A 16.5% | B 0.0% | +16.50% | Buy spread | |
PA Paraguay |
RO Romania |
Kalshi | A 16.5% | B 0.0% | +16.50% | Buy spread | |
PA Paraguay |
SL Slovakia |
Kalshi | A 16.5% | B 0.0% | +16.50% | Buy spread | |
TU Turkiye |
PA Paraguay |
Kalshi | A 32.5% | B 16.5% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
PA Paraguay |
AU Australia |
Polymarket | A 17.0% | B 6.9% | +10.10% | Buy spread | |
AU Australia |
KO Kosovo |
Kalshi | A 8.5% | B 0.0% | +8.50% | Buy spread | |
AU Australia |
RO Romania |
Kalshi | A 8.5% | B 0.0% | +8.50% | Buy spread | |
AU Australia |
SL Slovakia |
Kalshi | A 8.5% | B 0.0% | +8.50% | Buy spread | |
PA Paraguay |
AU Australia |
Kalshi | A 16.5% | B 8.5% | +8.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
TU Turkiye |
Kalshi | A 39.5% | B 32.5% | +7.00% | Buy spread | |
US USA |
TU Turkiye |
Polymarket | A 37.0% | B 35.0% | +2.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |