World Cup Group D Winner Odds: Kosovo Favored to Win at 0.0%

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Updated 1 month ago · 4:50 AM PDT

As of today, Kosovo is the favorite to win Group D with prediction markets pricing a 0.0% probability, followed by Romania (0.0%), Slovakia (0.0%), and USA (100.0%). Türkiye returns to the World Cup for the first time since 2002, when they finished third in their best-ever tournament run, and the late-qualifying Pot 4 squad has the attacking pieces to make Group D less of a glide path for the host. Group play opens Friday, June 12, with United States vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (9 p.m. ET on Fox), followed early Saturday by Australia vs Türkiye at BC Place in Vancouver (12 a.m. ET on FS1). The group wraps Thursday, June 25 with Türkiye vs United States at SoFi Stadium and Paraguay vs Australia at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Use the odds table below to find the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Odds and probability updated every 30 minutes.

Largest Spread

0.00%

Current Favorite

0.0%

Kosovo —

Total Volume (Share)

—

Momentum Leader

—

30D change

Probability of Each Team Winning Group D

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Today's Group D Winner Odds

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Kosovo

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Romania

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Slovakia

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

USA

Vol — Spread 0.0%

Agg 100.0%

Settled

K 100.0%

P 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $691.5K 0–100¢

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $734.3K 99.9–100¢

Australia

Vol — Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

Settled

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $147.9K 0–100¢

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $270.4K 0.1¢

Paraguay

Vol — Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

Settled

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $62.9K 0–100¢

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $251.5K 0.1¢

Turkiye

Vol — Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.0%

Settled

K 0.0%

P 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $259.3K 0–100¢

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $598.9K 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	OG
KO Kosovo	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	OG — —
RO Romania	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	OG — —
SL Slovakia	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	OG — —
US USA	100.0% Settled	0.0%	—	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $691.5K	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $734.3K	OG — —
AU Australia	0.0% Settled	0.0%	—	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $147.9K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $270.4K	OG — —
PA Paraguay	0.0% Settled	0.0%	—	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $62.9K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $251.5K	OG — —
TU Turkiye	0.0% Settled	0.0%	—	Kalshi 0.0% 0–100¢ Vol $259.3K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $598.9K	OG — —

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All 12 World Cup groups
Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia	Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina	Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye	Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao	Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden
Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand	Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde	Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan	Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo	Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana

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