The 2026 NFL schedule release happens Thursday, May 14. The part that actually matters is available. We know every team’s opponents and their strength of schedule. Win total contracts for all 32 teams are live on multiple prediction market apps. Before the dates and times are unveiled, here’s what you need to know about the 2026 NFL schedule.
NFL prediction markets ahead of schedule release
Of the dozens of futures open for trading, a pair of Kalshi markets stand out ahead of the NFL schedule release.
- Best Regular Season Record?
- Worst Regular Season Record?
Interestingly, the Lions (19%) are the current top-priced option in the best record market, ahead of the Seahawks (18%) and Bengals (17%). That could be a sign that Detroit and Cincinnati are underpriced in Super Bowl markets, with the Bengals trading at 3%.
In the worst record market, traders are making it a two-team race. The Dolphins (31%) are the price leader for now, ahead of the Cardinals (29%). We can expect volume to continue to grow across NFL prediction markets as games leak and the full schedule gets unveiled.
Futures is still the main attraction
The headline attraction is of course the 2027 Super Bowl odds. Over $25 million in volume has already been traded at both Kalshi and Polymarket. The platforms agree on the 10 biggest threats to win, but differ in pricing and overall favorite.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 12% | 9% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9% | 11% |
| Buffalo Bills | 7% | 8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7% | 6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6% | 5% |
| Denver Broncos | 6% | 5% |
| Detroit Lions | 6% | 4% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6% | 5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6% | 4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6% | 5% |
The market view sits apart from where ESPN’s analyst panel landed in February.
Seth Walder picked the Chargers to beat the Packers in Super Bowl LXI, and Aaron Schatz forecast a Chargers-Rams matchup at SoFi. Both predictions hinge on a Chargers team trading at just 5-6% across Kalshi and Polymarket — well off the Rams’ top-line price and the Seahawks’ second slot.
2026 NFL opponents, strength of schedule, win totals: all 32 teams
The opponents, plus home/away splits, for all 32 teams are confirmed per the NFL’s scheduling formula. Each team and its opponents are listed below, along with last season’s record and win total data for the top line contract from Kalshi.
We’ve also included strength of schedule (SOS) for each squad to show the road ahead. It’s calculated using each team’s opponents’ combined 2025 win-loss record, the most verifiable pre-season measure available, as opposed to 2026 projections that could be subjective.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots (14-3)
- Home: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Denver, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
- Away: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Chicago, Detroit, Jacksonville, Kansas City, L.A. Rams, Seattle
- SOS: 154-134 | .535
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 57%
Buffalo Bills (12-5)
- Home: Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers
- Away: Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Las Vegas, L.A. Rams, Minnesota
- SOS: 152-136 | .528
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 55%
Miami Dolphins (7-10)
- Home: Buffalo, New England, N.Y. Jets, Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers
- Away: Buffalo, New England, N.Y. Jets, Denver, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota, San Francisco
- SOS: 156-132 | .542
- Kalshi win total: 5+ wins – 35%
New York Jets (3-14)
- Home: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota
- Away: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, Tennessee
- SOS: 149-139 | .517
- Kalshi win total: 6+ wins – 48%
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
- Home: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Atlanta, Carolina, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis
- Away: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
- SOS: 143-146 | .495
- Kalshi win total: 8+ wins – 61%
Baltimore Ravens (8-9)
- Home: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, L.A. Chargers, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
- Away: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis
- SOS: 138-150 | .479
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 56%
Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)
- Home: Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
- Away: Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, Miami, Washington
- SOS: 130-159 | .450
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 57%
Cleveland Browns (5-12)
- Home: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas
- Away: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Tennessee
- SOS: 124-165 | .429
- Kalshi win total: 7+ wins – 46%
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
- Home: Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Cleveland, New England, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington
- Away: Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, N.Y. Giants
- SOS: 141-147 | .490
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 46%
Houston Texans (12-5)
- Home: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, N.Y. Giants
- Away: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Green Bay, L.A. Chargers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington
- SOS: 136-151 | .474
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 56%
Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
- Home: Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, Miami, N.Y. Giants
- Away: Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington
- SOS: 134-154 | .465
- Kalshi win total: 9+ wins – 44%
Tennessee Titans (3-14)
- Home: Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington
- Away: Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas, N.Y. Giants
- SOS: 137-151 | .476
- Kalshi win total: 7+ wins – 52%
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos (14-3)
- Home: Kansas City, Las Vegas, L.A. Chargers, Buffalo, Jacksonville, L.A. Rams, Miami, Seattle
- Away: Kansas City, Las Vegas, L.A. Chargers, Arizona, Carolina, New England, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
- SOS: 148-141 | .512
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 60%
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
- Home: Denver, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Arizona, Houston, New England, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco
- Away: Denver, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Baltimore, Buffalo, L.A. Rams, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay
- SOS: 151-138 | .522
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 53%
Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)
- Home: Denver, Las Vegas, L.A. Chargers, Arizona, Indianapolis, New England, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco
- Away: Denver, Las Vegas, L.A. Chargers, Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, L.A. Rams, Miami, Seattle
- SOS: 155-134 | .536
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 38%
Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
- Home: Denver, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, Buffalo, L.A. Rams, Miami, Seattle, Tennessee
- Away: Denver, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, Arizona, Cleveland, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco
- SOS: 153-136 | .529
- Kalshi win total: 6+ wins – 62%
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
- Home: Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Washington, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh, Seattle
- Away: Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Washington, Arizona, Chicago, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee
- SOS: 138-149 | .481
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 50%
Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)
- Home: N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Washington, Arizona, Baltimore, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
- Away: N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, Seattle
- SOS: 142-146 | .493
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 55%
Washington Commanders (5-12)
- Home: Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, Seattle
- Away: Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Arizona, Jacksonville, Minnesota, San Francisco, Tennessee
- SOS: 144-143 | .502
- Kalshi win total: 8+ wins – 56%
New York Giants (4-13)
- Home: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, Arizona, Cleveland, Jacksonville, New Orleans, San Francisco, Tennessee
- Away: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, Seattle
- SOS: 143-144 | .498
- Kalshi win total: 8+ wins – 55%
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (11-6)
- Home: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay
- Away: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Miami, Seattle
- SOS: 158-129 | .551
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 45%
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)
- Home: Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Houston, Miami
- Away: Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, L.A. Rams, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, Tampa Bay
- SOS: 155-133 | .538
- Kalshi win total: 10+ wins – 54%
Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
- Home: Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Indianapolis, Miami, Washington
- Away: Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, San Francisco, Tampa Bay
- SOS: 149-138 | .519
- Kalshi win total: 9+ wins – 45%
Detroit Lions (9-8)
- Home: Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
- Away: Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Miami
- SOS: 134-153 | .467
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 57%
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers (8-9)
- Home: Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Detroit, Seattle
- Away: Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
- SOS: 150-138 | .521
- Kalshi win total: 8+ wins – 45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
- Home: Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Cleveland, Green Bay, L.A. Chargers, L.A. Rams, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
- Away: Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Detroit
- SOS: 141-146 | .491
- Kalshi win total: 9+ wins – 51%
Atlanta Falcons (8-9)
- Home: Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco
- Away: Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Washington
- SOS: 134-154 | .465
- Kalshi win total: 8+ wins – 46%
New Orleans Saints (6-11)
- Home: Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
- Away: Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, N.Y. Giants
- SOS: 125-163 | .434
- Kalshi win total: 8+ wins – 56%
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
- Home: Arizona, L.A. Rams, San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, New England, N.Y. Giants
- Away: Arizona, L.A. Rams, San Francisco, Carolina, Denver, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Washington
- SOS: 148-140 | .514
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 54%
Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
- Home: Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, N.Y. Giants
- Away: Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Washington
- SOS: 148-139 | .516
- Kalshi win total: 12+ wins – 43%
San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
- Home: Arizona, L.A. Rams, Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas, Miami, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington
- Away: Arizona, L.A. Rams, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, N.Y. Giants
- SOS: 143-145 | .497
- Kalshi win total: 11+ wins – 47%
Arizona Cardinals (3-14)
- Home: L.A. Rams, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, N.Y. Jets, Philadelphia, Washington
- Away: L.A. Rams, San Francisco, Seattle, Dallas, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants
- SOS: 155-133 | .538
- Kalshi win total: 5+ wins – 48%
Toughest and easiest draws on the 2026 NFL schedule
The SOS figures above are calculated using each team’s opponents’ combined 2025 win-loss record. Some analysts prefer to calculate SOS using projected Vegas win totals, which incorporate offseason roster moves and coaching changes. Both approaches have merit.
ESPN’s Mike Clay, whose 2026 projection guide last updated May 8, calculates SOS using projected Vegas win totals — incorporating offseason roster moves and coaching changes that prior-year records can’t see. By Clay’s measure, Detroit draws the easiest schedule and Arizona the hardest, close to the inverse of the prior-year picture. Both approaches have merit.
Prior-year records are fully verifiable and assumption-free. Projected win totals are more current but rest on oddsmaker projections that will shift between now and September. This far ahead of the season, 2025 records provide the most transparency.
On that basis, Chicago draws the toughest schedule in the league at .551, a product of playing in the only division where all four teams finished above .500 last season. They also get a first-place schedule that includes New England, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville. The Bears are priced at just 45% to reach 10 wins on Kalshi.
At the other end, Cleveland sits at .429, the softest schedule in the league. They play an AFC North slate that produced just one winning team last season and draw non-division opponents from the NFC South’s bottom three. Despite that, the market isn’t sold. The Browns are trading at 46% for 7+ wins.
How the NFL schedule gets built
The opponents are already set. What drops Thursday at 8 p.m. ET is the part the formula can’t predetermine: dates, kickoff times, and primetime assignments. Understanding how the opponent formula works clarifies exactly what the schedule release adds and what it doesn’t.
The fixed components are determined months in advance:
- Each team plays its three division rivals home and away: six games, non-negotiable.
- Four games come from a rotating matchup with one other division in the same conference, cycling on a three-year schedule.
- Four games come from a cross-conference division matchup on a four-year rotation.
- Two intraconference games are assigned based on prior-year division finish. Teams that finished in the same place face each other, which is the league’s competitive-balance mechanism.
- One interconference game is added on the same finish-position basis, with the home conference rotating annually.
What Thursday actually reveals:
- Bye week placement, typically weeks 5 through 14, with significant implications for win total trajectories.
- Home/road sequencing. A brutal early road stretch looks very different from the same opponents spread across a full season.
- Primetime allocation. Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night assignments signal national relevance and affect homefield value.
- International game opponents and dates. Nine games across four continents this season, with Jacksonville, Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, and San Francisco all hosting abroad.
The NFL uses Amazon Web Services to optimize across roughly a quadrillion possible schedule combinations, weighing stadium availability, travel burden, broadcast value, and competitive fairness simultaneously. The opponents were never a mystery, but the exact sequence of the 2026 NFL schedule is.
