Kalshi has generated more than $200 million in World Cup trading volume as of this morning, with prediction markets pricing every match across moneylines, spreads, and props. The 2026 World Cup continues with 28 games scheduled over the next seven days.
Four matches headline today’s slate, including the Netherlands against Japan. France, Spain, and England play next week. Below is how Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the biggest games.
Today’s match ups: Prediction sites expect a heavy win for Germany
Prediction markets give Germany a 94% chance of beating Curaçao when the teams clash in Houston this afternoon. The game gets underway at 1 p.m. ET, and it promises to be a lopsided affair.
Germany is one of the world’s strongest teams, featuring elite players like Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, and Jamal Musiala. Curaçao is the smallest country to ever qualify for the World Cup, and the island’s entire population is equivalent to a small Berlin suburb.
Polymarket traders give Germany a 48% chance of covering a 3.5-goal spread, while Curaçao +3.5 is priced at 53%.
The Netherlands will then take on Japan in Dallas at 4 p.m. ET. This promises to be a more competitive match, but the Dutch are priced at 48% with Polymarket and 49% with Kalshi to win the game.
Japan is missing star player Kaoru Mitoma, so it could struggle to break down an elite Dutch defense led by Virgil van Dijk. If you think Japan can pull off an upset, it’s priced at 26% with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Around $2.3 million has been traded on this game across both sites.
Prediction markets anticipate wins for Ecuador and Sweden
Ivory Coast will then face Ecuador at 7 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. These teams are in the same World Cup group as Germany. They could end up fighting for second place, so it’s a crucial match.
Prediction sites make Ecuador the favorite, priced at 41%, with a draw (tie) priced at 34% and Ivory Coast priced at 27%. Ecuador finished second in the South American World Cup qualifying group, ahead of strong teams like Brazil and Colombia.
La Tri only conceded five goals in 18 qualifying games, with PSG’s Willian Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié leading a rock-solid defense. It’s easy to see why Ecuador is the favorite, but Ivory Coast recently beat France – the outright World Cup favorite – in a friendly, so the Elephants will be competitive in this game.
The final match on Sunday sees Sweden take on Tunisia at 10 p.m. ET in Monterrey. Tunisia is strong in defense, but Sweden has brilliant forwards like Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, so it’s the favorite to win this game.
Sweden is priced at 51% with Polymarket and 52% with Kalshi to secure victory. The draw is trading at 28%, and Tunisia is priced at 22%. Polymarket has priced both teams to score at 48%. That has landed in Sweden’s last six games, so it looks like an appealing option.
Monday World Cup odds: Spain is priced for a heavy win
Spain, the reigning European champion, takes on Cape Verde at 12 p.m. ET on Monday. This looks like another mismatch, as prediction sites give Spain a 91% chance of winning.
La Roja is on a 34-game unbeaten streak, which includes wins against England, France, and Germany. Cape Verde has never previously qualified for the World Cup, and there’s a huge gulf in quality between these teams. Kalshi traders give Spain a 51% chance of covering a 2.5-goal spread. La Roja should be capable of covering that if star player Lamine Yamal is firing on all cylinders after recovering from an injury.
Prediction markets also expect Belgium to beat Egypt, Uruguay to beat Saudi Arabia, and Iran to beat New Zealand on Monday.
Tuesday World Cup odds: France backed to beat Senegal
World Cup favorite France begins its campaign with a tricky game against Senegal in New Jersey on Tuesday. Prediction markets give France a 67% chance of winning the match, with a draw trading at 22% and Senegal priced at 13%.
Les Bleus have a star-studded squad, featuring elite forwards Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise. They also look strong in defense and midfield, so it’s easy to see why they’re trading at 17.2% with Kalshi to lift the trophy.
However, they’ll face a stern test of their mettle against Senegal. The Lions of Teranga beat Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations final earlier this year, only to be controversially stripped of the title the following month. They have quick, dangerous forwards like Sadio Mané in their ranks, so it should be an entertaining game. Both teams to score is trading at 46% on Polymarket.
Traders also give Norway an 83% chance of beating Iraq on Tuesday. Argentina, the reigning world champion, is priced at 71% with Kalshi to beat Algeria. The Algerians are on a four-game unbeaten streak, but it’s hard to see them keeping Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, and Lautaro Martínez at bay for 90 minutes. The final game of the day sees Austria take on Jordan. Austria is priced at 73% with Polymarket to secure victory.
Wednesday World Cup odds: Traders expect wins for Portugal and England
European heavyweights Portugal and England will get their World Cup campaigns underway on Wednesday. Portugal takes on DR Congo at 1 p.m. ET, and Kalshi has priced a Portuguese win at 77%. The Portugal midfield is stacked with world-class players like Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha, while Cristiano Ronaldo is still prolific in attack, so it should win that one.
England will then lock horns with Croatia at 4 p.m. ET in Dallas. It will be a repeat of the 2018 World Cup semifinal, which Croatia won 2-1. However, Croatia’s best players have either retired or regressed since then, so England is trading at 57% with Kalshi to win this match.
Ghana has been given a 43% chance of beating Panama in the next game on Wednesday, but the Black Stars will be missing star midfielder Thomas Partey. He was denied entry to Canada for this tournament. Finally, Colombia has a 71% chance of beating Uzbekistan, according to Polymarket traders.
Thursday World Cup odds: Host nations back in action
Canada could only draw 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup opener, but it is expected to return to winning ways on Thursday. Prediction sites give the CanMNT a 77% chance of beating Qatar when the teams clash at BC Place in Vancouver. Qatar earned a 1-1 draw with Switzerland at the weekend, but prediction markets expect it to struggle against Canada.
Mexico is also in action on Thursday. El Tri cruised to a 2-0 win against South Africa in the opening game of the tournament. Kalshi traders give Mexico a 51% chance of beating South Korea, which battled to a 2-1 victory over Czechia in its opener.
Elsewhere, Czechia is priced at 56% to beat South Africa on Thursday, while Switzerland has a 62% chance of beating Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Friday World Cup odds: USA backed to beat Australia
The USMNT thrashed Paraguay 4-1 in its first game of the tournament. Folarin Balogun scored twice, Gio Reyna curled in an outrageous trivela, and Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie looked lively throughout the game. Polymarket gives the USA a 62% chance of beating Australia in Seattle on Friday, while Kalshi has priced a USA win at 63%. Australia looked dangerous on the counterattack in its surprise 2-0 win against Türkiye on Saturday.
There are three more games on Friday: Scotland vs. Morocco, Brazil vs. Haiti, and Türkiye vs. Paraguay. Prediction markets expect wins for Morocco, Brazil, and Türkiye.
Saturday World Cup odds: Four more games on the slate
The Netherlands will take on Sweden on Saturday, followed by Germany vs. Ivory Coast in Toronto. Ecuador will then play against Curaçao, before Tunisia takes on Japan. Prediction markets are currently anticipating wins for the Netherlands, Germany, Ecuador, and Japan, but that could all change by Saturday.
